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Accountants bearish, mostly, save for their own firm and clients

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Accountants are generally pessimistic about the U.S. economy and the small business environment over the next year and a half, unless you talk to them about their own firm and clients, in which case they become much more optimistic.

This is according to the findings of a recent poll from tax compliance solutions provider Avalara in cooperation with CPA Trendlines. When asked about their outlook for small business in general over the next 12-18 months, 48.6% said it would get worse versus 17.7% saying it would get better. Similarly, when asked how they think the U.S. economy as a whole will do over the next 12-18 months, 49.7% said it would get worse and only 16.8% said it would get better.

However, accountants were more optimistic talking about their own firms and clients. When asked how they think their clients will do, the most common answer at 50.2% was “no change,” while 26% said they would be worse off and 23.9% saying they would be better off. The contrast is even more striking when considering themselves and their firm. The poll found 44.5% of accountants think their own firm will do better over the next year and a half, and 43.9% anticipate that they, themselves, will be doing better.

But this does not mean that there aren’t challenges for small businesses. Hiring and retaining employees is cited by 59.76% of accountants as one of the Most Important Small Business Issues, followed by problems related to raising prices at 57.06%, and keeping up with technology at 49.25%. In light of these challenges, accountants are emphasizing cost management and financial discipline with their clients. They’re telling them to find ways to cut costs, build savings and even be willing to work harder and longer for less pay at the economy moves through this period of sturm und drang, as well as keep a close eye on their metrics.

Accountants are also telling clients to bolster their client and customer relations, be ready to adapt to changing circumstances, take advantage of AI and other technology, stay current on tax and regulation changes, focus on staff retention and quality (like not hiring family and friends), concentrate on financial planning and projections, review pricing and revenue strategies, and be aware of external market conditions by things like expecting big business to be your long-term competition.

Of course, as always, the devil is in the details. There are certain sectors accountants feel very confident in for the future while others have less certain prospects. The strongest two are professional services (like lawyers, doctors, etc.) at 59.9% and technology at 53.5%. They are much less sanguine about other sectors. Healthcare facilities was a distant third at 36.03%, followed by construction at 26.6%, cannabis at 25.9% and government contracting at 25.6%.

Accountants have the least amount of confidence in arts and entertainment (6.4%), retail trade (4.7%), franchising (2.7%) and, at the bottom of the list, auto dealers (2.0%).

“Main Street accountants have perhaps the most accurate view into the health of small businesses in local economies, so our 2024 Accountants Confidence Report provides a unique aggregate snapshot of how businesses are faring, now and into the near future,” said Sona Akmakjian, global head of strategic accounting partnerships at Avalara. “This new data around accountant sentiment also demonstrates the extent to which mom-and-pop shops depend on the business acumen and advisory of their trusted accounting professional who must now wear many hats to help clients through headwinds including ongoing staffing shortages, continued inflation, and better understanding technology, including AI, to deal with current and forthcoming challenges.”

The online survey was conducted between March and April 2024 by CPA Trendlines Research to the CPA Trendlines proprietary database of readers, followers and subscribers in practicing tax, accounting and finance professional services firms, including CPAs, bookkeepers, tax professionals and business advisors. Sent directly by email invitation and via social channels comprising more than 155,000 followers, respondents were incentivized by offering a “top-line executive summary of results.” The study has a margin of error of 3-5 points at a 90% confidence level.

The typical survey respondent is handling more than 300 businesses, in addition to 621 individuals and almost 200 nonprofits. With a projectible 347 participating accountants and advisors represented in this survey, this study provides visibility into the financial situations of an estimated 86,999 U.S. small businesses.

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The tax outlook for president-elect Trump and the GOP

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President-elect Donald Trump and his Republican party clarified one aspect of the uncertainty surrounding taxes with a resounding victory in the election.

That means that the many expiring provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 — which Trump signed into law in his first term — are much more likely to remain in force after their potential sunset date at the end of next year. Financial advisors and tax professionals can act without worrying that the rules will shift underneath them to favor much higher income duties.  

However, the result also presents Trump and incoming Senate Majority Leader John Thune of South Dakota and House Speaker Mike Johnson of Louisiana with a series of thorny tax policy questions that have tricky, time-sensitive implications, according to Anna Taylor, the deputy leader, and Jonathan Traub, the leader, of Deloitte Tax’s Tax Policy Group. Once again, industry professionals and their clients will be learning the minutiae of House and Senate procedures. Taylor and Traub spoke on a panel last week, following Trump’s victory and their release of a report detailing the many tax policy questions facing the incoming administration.

READ MORE: Donald Trump will shape these 9 areas of wealth management 

Considering the fact that the objections of former Sen. Bob Corker of Tennessee “slowed down that process for a number of weeks in 2017” before Republicans “landed” on a deficit increase of $1.5 trillion in the legislation, Taylor pointed out how the looming debate on the precise numbers and Senate budget reconciliation rules will affect the writing of any extensions bill.

“They’re going to have to pick their budget number on the front end,” Taylor said. “They’re going to have to pick that number and put it in the budget resolution, and then they’ll kind of back into their policy so that their policies will fit within their budget constraints. And once you get into that process, you can do a lot in the tax base, but there are still limits. I mean, you can’t do anything that affects the Social Security program. So they won’t be able to do the president’s proposal on getting rid of taxes on Social Security benefits.”

Individual House GOP members will exercise their strength in the negotiations as well, and the current limit on the deduction for state and local taxes represents a key bellwether on how the talks are proceeding, Traub noted. 

The president-elect and his Congressional allies will have to find the balance amid the “real tension” between members from New York and California and those from low-tax states such as Florida or Texas who will view any increases to the limit as “too much of a giveaway for the wealthy New Yorkers and Californians,” he said.   

“You will need almost perfect unity — more so in the House than the Senate,” Traub said. “This really gives a lot of power, I think, to any small group of House members who decide that they will lie down on the train tracks to block a bill they don’t like or to enforce the inclusion of a provision that they really want. I think the place we’ll watch the most closely at the get-go is over the SALT cap.”

READ MORE: Republican election sweep emboldens Trump’s tax cut dreams

Estimates of a price tag for extending the expiring provisions begin at $4.6 trillion — without even taking into account the cost of President-elect Trump’s campaign proposals to prohibit taxes on tips and overtime pay and deductions and credits for caregiving and buying American-made cars, Taylor pointed out. In addition, the current debt limit will run out on Jan. 1. 

The Treasury Department could “use their extraordinary measures to get them through a few more months before they actually have to deal with the limit,” she said. 

“But they’re going to have to make a decision,” Taylor continued. “Are they going to try to do the debt limit first, maybe roll it into some sort of appropriations deal early in the year? Or are they going to try to do the debt limit with taxes, and then that’s going to really force them to move really quickly on taxes? So, I don’t know. I don’t know that they have an answer to that yet. I’ll be really interested to see what they say in terms of how they’re going to move that limit, because they’re going to have to do that at some point — rather soon, too.”

Looking further into the future at the end of next year with the deadline on the expiring provisions, Republicans’ trifecta control of the White House and both houses of Congress makes them much more likely to exercise that mandate through a big tax bill rather than a temporary patch to give them a few more months to resolve differences, Traub said.

READ MORE: 26 tips on expiring Tax Cuts and Jobs Act provisions to review before 2026 

Both parties have used reconciliation in the wake of the last two presidential elections. A continuing resolution-style patch on a temporary basis would have been more likely with divided government, he said.

“Had that been what the voters called for last Tuesday, I think that the odds of a short-term extension into 2025 would have been a lot higher,” Traub said. “I don’t think that anybody in the GOP majority right now is thinking about a short-term extension. They are thinking about, ‘We have an unusual ability now to use reconciliation to affect major policy changes.'”

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M&A roundup: Aprio and Opsahl Dawson expand

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Aprio, a Top 25 Firm based in Atlanta, is expanding to Southern California by acquiring Kirsch Kohn Bridge, a firm based in Woodland Hills, effective Nov. 1.

The deal will grow Aprio’s geographic footprint while enabling it to expand into new local markets and industries. Financial terms were not disclosed. Aprio ranked No. 25 on Accounting Today’s 2024 list of the Top 100 Firms, with $420.79 million in annual revenue, 210 partners and 1,851 professionals. The deal will add five partners and 31 professionals to Aprio. 

In July, Aprio received a private equity investment from Charlesbank Capital Partners. 

KKB has been operating for six decades offering accounting, tax, and business advisory services to industries including construction, real estate, professional services, retail, and manufacturing. “There is tremendous synergy between Aprio and KKB, which enables us to further elevate our tax, accounting and advisory capabilities and deepen our roots across California,” said Aprio CEO Richard Kopelman in a statement. “Continuing to build out our presence across the West Coast is an important part of our growth strategy and KKB  is the right partner to launch our first location in Southern California. Together, we will bring even more robust insights, perspectives and solutions to our clients to help them propel forward.”

The Woodland Hills office will become Aprio’s third in California, in addition to its locations further north in San Francisco and Walnut Creek. Joe Tarasco of Accountants Advisory served as the advisor to Aprio on the transaction. 

“We are thrilled to become part of Aprio’s vision for the future,” said KKB managing partner Carisa Ferrer in a statement. “Over the past 60 years, KKB has grown from the ground up to suit the unique and complex challenges of our clients. As we move forward with our combined knowledge, we will accelerate our ability to leverage innovative talent, business processes, cutting-edge technologies, and advanced solutions to help our clients with even greater precision and care.”

Aprio has completed over 20 mergers and acquisitions since 2017, adding Ridout Barrett & Co. CPAs & Advisors last December, and before that, Antares Group, Culotta, Scroggins, Hendricks & Gillespie, Aronson, Salver & Cook, Gomerdinger & Associates, Tobin & Collins, Squire + Lemkin, LBA Haynes Strand, Leaf Saltzman, RINA and Tarlow and Co.

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Johnson says Congress will ‘do the math’ on key Trump tax pledge

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House Speaker Mike Johnson said Donald Trump’s plan to end income tax on tips would have to be paid for, injecting a note of caution into one of the president-elect’s key campaign pledges.

“This is one of the promises that he wants to deliver on,” Johnson said Sunday on CNN’s State of the Union. “We’re going to try to make that happen in the Congress. You’ve got to do the math.”

Johnson paired his comment with pledges to swiftly advance Trump’s economic agenda once the newly elected Congress is in place with Republican majorities in the House and Senate. The former president rolled out a series of tax-cut proposals during his successful bid to return to the White House, including rescinding taxes on overtime, Social Security checks and tips.

House Speaker Mike Johnson
Mike Johnson

Tierney L. Cross/Bloomberg

“You have got to make sure that these new savings for the American people can be paid for and make sure the economy is a pro-growth economy,” said Johnson, who was among allies accompanying Trump to an Ultimate Fighting Championship event at New York’s Madison Square Garden on Saturday night.

Congress faces a tax marathon next year as many of the provisions from the Republicans’ 2017 tax bill expire at the end of 2025. Trump’s declared goal is to extend all of the personal income tax cuts and further reduce the corporate tax rate.

A more immediate challenge may be ahead as Trump seeks to install loyalists as cabinet members for his second term starting in January, including former Representative Matt Gaetz as Attorney General, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as secretary of health and human services and former Representative Tulsi Gabbard for Director of National Intelligence. 

Gaetz was under investigation by the House Ethics Committee for alleged sexual misconduct and illicit drug use, which he has denied. RFK Jr. is a vaccine skeptic and has endorsed misleading messages about vaccine safety.

Donald Trump Jr., the president-elect’s son who has been a key player in the cabinet picks, said he expects many of the choices will face pushback.    

“Some of them are going to be controversial,” Trump Jr. said on Fox News’ Sunday Morning Futures. “They’re controversial because they’ll actually get things done.”

‘Because of my father’

Trump Jr. suggested the transition team has options if any candidate fails to pass Senate muster.

“We’re showing him lists of 10 or 12 people for every position,” he said. “So we do have backup plans, but I think we’re obviously going with the strongest candidates first.”

Trump Jr. said incoming Senate Majority leader John Thune owes his post to the president-elect.

“I think we have control of the Senate because of my father,” he said. “John Thune’s able to be the majority leader because of my father, because he got a bunch of other people over the line.”

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