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Ahead of U.S. election, financial advisors say public debt is top concern

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Voters work on their ballot at a polling station at the Elena Bozeman Government Center in Arlington, Virginia, on September 20, 2024.

– | Afp | Getty Images

Many investors worry about how the outcome of the presidential election will impact their investments.

But there’s another risk financial advisors are focused on — public debt, according to a new survey from Natixis Investment Managers.

Most U.S. advisors — 68% — rank public debt as the top economic risk, while 64% of advisors worldwide said the same, according to the survey of 2,700 respondents in 20 countries, including 300 in the U.S.

“No matter who wins the election, they’re convinced public debt is going to continue to go up,” said Dave Goodsell, executive director of the Natixis Center for Investor Insight.

The term public debt is used interchangeably by the U.S. Treasury with national debt and federal debt.

The government has borrowed to pay expenses over time, comparable to how an individual might use a credit card and not pay off the full balance each month. The U.S. national debt is now more than $35 trillion and growing.

The next U.S. president and Congress will inherit that government spending dilemma, as well as looming trust fund depletion dates for Social Security and Medicare.

More individuals now believe they are on their own when it comes to funding their retirements, the Natixis survey have shown, according to Goodsell.

Experts say there are certain moves individual investors can make to limit the financial exposure they have to those broader risks.

“You cannot control what Congress is doing, but you can control how you plan, how you save, invest and react to the news,” said Marguerita Cheng, a certified financial planner and CEO of Blue Ocean Global Wealth in Gaithersburg, Maryland. Cheng is also a member of the CNBC FA Council.

Diversify your portfolio

50% of Americans believe election outcome will directly impact their personal finances, survey finds

Adjust your tax exposure

Higher national debt means taxes may also likely go up.

“We can’t forecast what tax rates will be in the future,” Cheng said.

Having money in a mix of tax-deferred, tax free and taxable accounts can be helpful, because it gives investors flexibility to limit their taxable withdrawals.

Roth individual retirement accounts and 401(k) plans allow savers invest post-tax money toward retirement. Taking advantage of other kinds of accounts — 529 college savings plans or health savings accounts for medical expenses — may provide tax advantages for money spent on qualified expenses.

Pare back personal debts

While the U.S. national debt is high, consumer debts have also been climbing.

“The sheer amount of debt that is outstanding that is charging more than 10% per year is shocking,” Glassman said.

To help keep those balances in check, and how much they cost, it helps to have good credit, Cheng said.

Consumers can help reduce the cost of their debts by paying their bills on time, which then lets them borrow money at better interest rates on everything from cars to homes, and can even help to reduce car insurance costs, she said.

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Neodesha, Kansas offers incentives to entice people to move there

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Field of wheat in central Kansas is nearly ready for harvest.

Ricardo Reitmeyer | Getty Images

With a population of about 2,100, Neodesha, Kansas, is roughly 100 miles from Wichita and Topeka in Kansas and Tulsa, Oklahoma. Its claim to fame is the 65-foot-tall tower that supported the drilling framework for the first commercial oil well west of the Mississippi River, locals say. 

But as an old oil town, Neodesha has struggled with a decreasing population and an aging housing supply for years.

When the refinery formerly owned by Standard Oil Co. closed in 1971, “the population was cut in half over night,” according to Neodesha’s mayor, Devin Johnson.

“We have seen that decline as every small community has over the last 50 years,” Johnson said. “The thing with small communities is, if you are not growing, you are dying.”

Last year, Neodesha partnered with MakeMyMove, an online relocation marketplace that connects workers with communities trying to attract new residents.

Incentives include tax waivers and free college

The town is now offering qualifying new residents incentives — such as waiving state income tax through 2026 along with property tax rebates and help with day care for working parents — as well as access to existing perks, including student loan repayment assistance up to $15,000 and free college tuition through the Neodesha Promise scholarship program.

MakeMyMove, which has worked with 88 communities across the U.S., screens applicants and connects them with local resources.

Since the program launched in 2024, more than 30 people are in the process of moving to Neodesha, according to Evan Hock, MakeMyMove’s co-founder and chief operating officer.

Is it best to go to college or dive straight into the working world?

“We’ve awarded over $1 million in scholarships, and I feel like we are helping the community and making some real progress,” said Ben Cutler, who grew up in Neodesha and now funds the scholarship program, which started in 2020 and is available to any graduate of Neodesha High School in good standing. (Neodesha’s promise program will cover tuition at participating colleges or associate degree programs and vocational schools nationwide.) 

“One of my key focuses was helping build the community, to help in any way I could to make Neodesha a more attractive community for young families, and I think we’re making some real progress in that regard — I certainly hope so anyway,” Cutler said.

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Meanwhile, efforts are also underway to construct hundreds of new homes, apartments and duplexes in the region, along with the development of retail and commercial spaces and the renovation of several historic buildings on Main Street.

“We’ve got to cherish what we’ve got but make sure we make Neodesha an attractive place for people to come,” Johnson said.

These cities will pay you to move there

Other communities across the country have also been upping the ante with cash incentives or voucher programs for people willing to move.

For example, workers relocating to Topeka can receive up to $10,000 for rent for the first year or up to $15,000 to put toward buying a home.

Another program affiliated with the West Virginia Department of Tourism is offering a cash incentive of $12,000 along with access to free coworking spaces and outdoor recreation packages for those who move to the state for at least two years.  

The Shoals Economic Development Authority offers $10,000 in cash to full-time remote employees who are willing to relocate to the Shoals community in northwest Alabama.

“This is a cost-effective way of doing economic development,” said MakeMyMove’s Hock. The communities “usually get a return within the first year.”

However, “incentives are not the reason people actually move,” he said. Affordability is key, he said, but community also plays an important role.

“They are looking for quality of place, they want a community connection, that’s what is motivating the move,” Hock said.

‘A family-friendly place to live’

Kaitlyn and Jack Sundberg with their dogs Max and Bella in front of the home they purchased in Neodesha, Kansas.

Courtesy: Kaitlyn Sundberg

Kaitlyn Sundberg never expected that she would move to Kansas. Sundberg and her husband, Jack, lived in Southern California but struggled to save enough for the down payment on a home of their own.

“We were living with my in-laws, and we were not able to afford anything,” said Sundberg, 27.

Sundberg’s husband, who worked as an estimator for a telecom company, expanded his job search — significantly — and found an opportunity as the program manager for Southeast Kansas Inc.

When they visited Neodesha, “it just seemed like a family-friendly place to live,” Sundberg said.

“We spent a Saturday looking for a house — there were kids riding bikes,” she said, “I just cried.”

The couple moved to Neodesha with their two dogs 18 months ago, even before the incentive program launched. Sundberg now works as the executive director of the new early learning center in town after a neighbor brought over the job posting and suggested she apply for the position.

“Being away from family is the hardest part,” she said, “but I would never want to move back.”

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DOGE actions may cause Social Security benefit ‘interruption’: ex-agency head

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Then Social Security Commissioner Martin O’Malley testifies before the Senate Committee on the Budget on Sept. 11, 2024.

Anna Rose Layden | Getty Images News | Getty Images

Social Security has never missed a benefit payment since the program first began sending individuals monthly benefits more than eight decades ago.

But the recent actions at the U.S. Social Security Administration by Elon Musk‘s so-called Department of Government Efficiency are putting monthly benefit checks for more than 72.5 million Americans at risk, former commissioner and former Maryland governor Martin O’Malley told CNBC.com.

“Ultimately, you’re going to see the system collapse and an interruption of benefits,” O’Malley said. “I believe you will see that within the next 30 to 90 days.”

Ahead of any interruption in benefits, “people should start saving now,” O’Malley said.

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The Social Security Administration uses multiple systems and technologies that Elon Musk has criticized for leading to errors. As commissioner, O’Malley told Congress the agency needed more funding for IT modernization.  

O’Malley said DOGE leaders are now making changes at the agency, and significant staff cuts have already led to system outages. Those intermittent IT outages may happen more frequently and for more extended periods of time until there is a “system collapse and an interruption of benefits,” he said.

Neither the Social Security Administration nor the White House responded to requests for comment by press time.

Social Security Administration leadership upheaval

The Department of Government Efficiency, also known as DOGE, is not a federal department. And Musk, whom President Donald Trump brought on board to implement DOGE, is not an elected official.

Since its establishment, DOGE has looked to slash spending at federal government agencies.

Top Social Security official exits after refusing DOGE access to sensitive data

The cuts have led to leadership upheaval, with the recent resignation of acting commissioner Michelle King following a reported disagreement over DOGE’s access to sensitive data. O’Malley resigned from the Social Security Administration in November to run for chairman of the Democratic National Committee, a race which he lost to Minnesota Democrat Ken Martin.

Trump has nominated Frank Bisignano, CEO of financial-technology company Fiserv, to serve as the new commissioner of the Social Security Administration. Bisignano has yet to sit for Senate confirmation hearings.

In the interim, Lee Dudek, who first joined the agency in 2009, has been appointed acting commissioner.

Earlier this month, Dudek posted on LinkedIn that he had been placed on administrative leave from the agency for helping DOGE representatives, The Wall Street Journal reported on Feb. 20.

“Our continuing priority is paying beneficiaries the right amount at the right time, and providing other critical services people rely on from us,” Dudek said in a Feb. 19 statement about his appointment.

Whose benefits may be most at risk

Yet experts say the benefits Americans rely on could be at risk based on the Trump administration’s overhaul of the agency.

“The American public needs to understand that one of their major social safety nets is in dire jeopardy,” said Jill Hornick, a union official at the American Federation of Government Employees Local 1395, which primarily represents Social Security offices in Illinois.

“It’ll take a while for the effects to be felt, but they’re coming,” Hornick said, predicting what will happen to Social Security is going to be “far worse” than the planned cuts to Medicaid.

For people who are already receiving Social Security benefits, most of that is automated and may not be affected, she said. However, processing new claims — whether it be for retirement or disability benefits — may take longer since those cannot be processed without Social Security employees, she said.

On Thursday, the Social Security Administration sent a notice to employees that gives them until March 14 to decide whether to take an early buyout. Unlike a previous January offer, this now includes service employees, and staffing reductions in that area may impact how quickly the agency processes benefit claims and provides other services, Hornick said.

For example, if a woman files for a survivor benefit after her husband passes away, she needs to provide a copy of her marriage license. A Social Security employee then needs to code the system to verify they have seen that document and the applicant is eligible for benefits, Hornick said.

“Not everybody can do things electronically,” particularly the older adults and disabled individuals who the Social Security Administration serves, said Maria Freese, senior legislative representative at the National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare.

“If you don’t have people to run an agency that requires hands-on customer service, then of course there’s a risk that you could end up with benefits being either denied or interrupted,” Freese said.

Office closures may reduce access to services

The DOGE savings web page has a list of about 45 Social Security locations where leases will be terminated, according to Rich Couture, spokesperson for AFGE SSA General Committee, a union that represents 42,000 Social Security employees nationally.

The list provides little information on the uses for the locations that are being closed. Based on the square footage listed, they may be sites used to conduct in-person hearings for disability benefits, Couture said. In one case, the location seems to be a busy New York state field office that provides general services, he said.

“If they’re going to close these offices that are busy in highly populated areas, it would suggest to me that there’s no office in this country that would be safe from having a lease terminated, especially in rural areas,” Couture said.

Fiserv CEO on the nomination to Social Security Commisioner role

In a recent statement, Rep. John Larson, D-Conn., said the moves are a “backdoor benefit cut.”

“Let me be clear — laying off half of the workforce at the Social Security Administration and shuttering field offices will mean the delay, disruption and denial of benefits,” Larson said.

In a statement to CNBC.com earlier this week, the Social Security Administration said it has not set any reduction targets, in response to reports it plans to cut 50% of its employees.

As a union, AFGE has been issuing bargaining demands in response to the agency’s recent decisions and plans to enforce employee rights through other methods as necessary, spokesperson Couture said.

While many lawsuits have been filed, it will take time to work through them, especially as the courts are now being flooded with cases tied to the Trump administration’s actions, said Nancy Altman, president of advocacy organization Social Security Works.

The biggest results may come from the pressure American voters could put on elected officials, former SSA commissioner O’Malley said.

“I think many people throughout the country are going to start bringing a lot of heat to members of Congress who have been facilitating, supporting, aiding and abetting the breaking of their Social Security and the interruption of benefits that they work their whole lives to earn,” he said. “These are earned benefits.”

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As the price of bitcoin falls, you can leverage this tax loophole

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Jaque Silva/ | Nurphoto | Getty Images

With the price of bitcoin down from a record high in January, there’s a chance for some investors to score a tax break, experts say.  

Following a post-election rally, the flagship digital currency touched $109,000 on inauguration day before falling in February. As of midday Friday, the price was around $84,000, after dipping below $80,000 overnight, according to Coin Metrics.

The latest selloff presents a tax planning opportunity, including a “loophole” that could go away amid Congressional tax negotiations, according to Andrew Gordon, a tax attorney, certified public accountant and president of Gordon Law Group.

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The strategy, known as “tax-loss harvesting,” allows you to offset profitable investments by selling declining assets in a brokerage or other taxable account. Once your losses exceed gains, you can subtract up to $3,000 per year from regular income and carry excess losses into future years. 

Some investors wait until December for tax-loss harvesting, which can be a mistake because asset volatility, particularly for digital currency, happens throughout the year, experts say. 

“You should look for these opportunities continually and take advantage of them as they occur,” Gordon said.  

You should look for these opportunities continually and take advantage of them as they occur.

Andrew Gordon

President of Gordon Law Group

The crypto wash sale ‘loophole’ 

When selling investments, there’s a wash sale rule, which blocks you from claiming a loss if you repurchase a “substantially identical” asset within a 30-day window before or after the sale.

But currently, the wash sale rule doesn’t apply to cryptocurrency, which can be beneficial for long-term digital currency investors, experts say.

“If you sell, for instance, bitcoin at a loss today and then buy it back tomorrow, you still have your loss on the books,” Gordon said. “This is an extremely effective strategy for crypto investors because they don’t have to exit their position.”

However, the strategy could disappear in the future as Congressional Republicans seek ways to fund President Donald Trump‘s tax agenda.

Sens. Cynthia Lummis, R-Wyo. and Kirsten Gillibrand, D-N.Y., in 2023 reintroduced a regulatory framework for cryptocurrency, which included closing the crypto wash sale loophole. Former President Joe Biden‘s fiscal year 2025 budget also included the proposal.

In the meantime, “the IRS gives us this loophole. We may as well take it,” Adam Markowitz, an enrolled agent at Luminary Tax Advisors in Windermere, Florida, previously told CNBC.

Of course, you should always consider your investing goals and timeline before implementing the tax strategy.

Tax Tip: Crypto Assets

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