Voters work on their ballot at a polling station at the Elena Bozeman Government Center in Arlington, Virginia, on September 20, 2024.
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Many investors worry about how the outcome of the presidential election will impact their investments.
But there’s another risk financial advisors are focused on — public debt, according to a new survey from Natixis Investment Managers.
Most U.S. advisors — 68% — rank public debt as the top economic risk, while 64% of advisors worldwide said the same, according to the survey of 2,700 respondents in 20 countries, including 300 in the U.S.
“No matter who wins the election, they’re convinced public debt is going to continue to go up,” said Dave Goodsell, executive director of the Natixis Center for Investor Insight.
The term public debt is used interchangeably by the U.S. Treasury with national debt and federal debt.
The government has borrowed to pay expenses over time, comparable to how an individual might use a credit card and not pay off the full balance each month. The U.S. national debt is now more than $35 trillion and growing.
The next U.S. president and Congress will inherit that government spending dilemma, as well as looming trust fund depletion dates for Social Security and Medicare.
More individuals now believe they are on their own when it comes to funding their retirements, the Natixis survey have shown, according to Goodsell.
Experts say there are certain moves individual investors can make to limit the financial exposure they have to those broader risks.
“You cannot control what Congress is doing, but you can control how you plan, how you save, invest and react to the news,” said Marguerita Cheng, a certified financial planner and CEO of Blue Ocean Global Wealth in Gaithersburg, Maryland. Cheng is also a member of the CNBC FA Council.
Diversify your portfolio
To help protect against volatility risks and avoid chasing returns or trying to time the market, it helps to stay appropriately diversified.
“Right now, in particular, you need some sort of risk offset in your portfolio, something that is non-correlated to stocks,” Goodsell said.
As the equity market has reached new all-time highs, investors have ratcheted up their expectations for higher returns.
The Natixis research found that investors expect returns of 15.6% above inflation, while financial professionals say about 7.1% above inflation is more realistic, Goodsell said.
Bonds can offer an opportunity to mitigate stock risks, he said.
To diversify, investors may consider both U.S. and international bonds, said Barry Glassman, a certified financial planner and the founder and president of Glassman Wealth Services. Bonds that have longer duration tend to come with more risks. Glassman is also a member of the CNBC FA Council.
For investors who worry the country’s debt may lead to slow growth, it can help to add international exposure to a portfolio, Cheng said.
Adjust your tax exposure
Higher national debt means taxes may also likely go up.
“We can’t forecast what tax rates will be in the future,” Cheng said.
Having money in a mix of tax-deferred, tax free and taxable accounts can be helpful, because it gives investors flexibility to limit their taxable withdrawals.
Roth individual retirement accounts and 401(k) plans allow savers invest post-tax money toward retirement. Taking advantage of other kinds of accounts — 529 college savings plans or health savings accounts for medical expenses — may provide tax advantages for money spent on qualified expenses.
Pare back personal debts
While the U.S. national debt is high, consumer debts have also been climbing.
“The sheer amount of debt that is outstanding that is charging more than 10% per year is shocking,” Glassman said.
To help keep those balances in check, and how much they cost, it helps to have good credit, Cheng said.
Consumers can help reduce the cost of their debts by paying their bills on time, which then lets them borrow money at better interest rates on everything from cars to homes, and can even help to reduce car insurance costs, she said.
Images By Tang Ming Tung | Digitalvision | Getty Images
As some Americans struggle to save for retirement, key 401(k) plan changes could soon make preparing easier for certain workers, experts say.
Enacted by Congress in 2022, “Secure 2.0” ushered in sweeping changes to the U.S. retirement system, including several updates to 401(k) plans. Some of these provisions will go into effect in 2025.
Meanwhile, roughly 4 in 10 American workers say they are behind in retirement planning and savings, primarily due to debt, not enough income or getting a late start, according to a CNBC survey, which polled about 6,700 adults in early August.
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Dave Stinnett, Vanguard’s head of strategic retirement consulting, said 401(k) plans are “the primary way most Americans prepare for retirement” and those accountscan work “very, very well” when designed properly.
Here are some key changes for 2025 and what employees need to know.
But there’s an “exciting change” to catch-up contributions for a subset of older workers in 2025, thanks to Secure 2.0, according to certified financial planner Jamie Bosse, senior advisor at CGN Advisors in Manhattan, Kansas.
Starting in 2025, the catch-up contribution limit will jump to $11,250, about a 14% increase, for employees ages 60 to 63. Including the $23,500 limit, these workers can save a total of $34,750 in 2025.
Only 14% of employees maxed out 401(k) plans in 2023, according to Vanguard’s 2024 How America Saves report, based on data from 1,500 qualified plans and nearly 5 million participants.
On top of maxing out contributions, an estimated 15% of workers made catch-up contributions in plans that allowed it during 2023, the same report found.
Shorter wait for part-time workers
Secure 2.0 has also boosted access to 401(k) and 403(b) plans for certain part-time workers.
Starting in 2024, employers were required to extend plan access to part-time employees who worked at least 500 hours annually for three consecutive years. That threshold drops to two consecutive years in 2025.
“That’s a very good thing for long-term part-time workers” who may have struggled to qualify for 401(k) eligibility, said Stinnett.
That’s a very good thing for long-term part-time workers.
Dave Stinnett
Vanguard’s head of strategic retirement consulting
In March 2023, some 73% of civilian workers had access to workplaceretirement benefits, and 56% of workers participated in these plans, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
“Coverage is my thing,” said Alicia Munnell, director of the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College.
“It’s important that people have coverage no matter where they go,” including from full-time to part-time at the same job, she added.
Mandatory auto-enrollment for new 401(k) plans
Another Secure 2.0 change is auto-enrollment for certain 401(k) plans.
Starting in 2025, most 401(k) and 403(b) plans established after Dec. 28, 2022, must include automatic enrollment of eligible employees in the plan with a minimum 3% employee deferral rate.
“It’s unequivocally a positive step to take,” Munnell said. “More people will join, and more people will have savings because of that.”
Automatic enrollment and escalation — gradually increasing the contribution rate annually — are key plan designs to boost savings, Stinnett previously told CNBC.
But those features still may not result in employees saving enough. While experts recommend a 15% savings rate, most plans set a cap on automatic escalation. In 2022, 63% limited automated contributions to 10% or less of annual pay, according to the Plan Sponsor Council of America.
Stock traders on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.
Michael M. Santiago | Getty Images News | Getty Images
Many large U.S. companies have seen their stocks swell since the presidential election.
The top 10 performing stocks in the S&P 500 index saw returns of 18% or more since Election Day, according to data provided by S&P Global Market Intelligence, which analyzed returns based on closing prices from Nov. 5 to Nov. 20.
Two companies — Axon Enterprise (AXON), which provides law-enforcement technology, and Tesla (TSLA), the electric-vehicle maker led by Elon Musk, an advisor to President-elect Donald Trump — saw their stocks gain more than 35%, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence.
By contrast, the S&P 500 gained about 2% over the same period.
‘Usually a bad idea’ to buy on short-term gain
Investors should be cautious about buying individual stocks based on short-term boosts, said Jeremy Goldberg, a certified financial planner, portfolio manager and research analyst at Professional Advisory Services, Inc., which ranked No. 37 on CNBC’s annual Financial Advisor 100 list.
“It’s usually a bad idea,” Goldberg said. “Momentum is a powerful force in the market, but relying solely on short-term price moves as an investment strategy is risky.”
Investors should understand what’s driving the movement and whether the factors pushing up a stock price are sustainable, Goldberg said.
Why did these stocks outperform?
Lofty stock returns were partly driven by Trump administration policy stances expected to benefit certain companies and industries, investment experts said.
Deregulation and a softer view toward mergers and acquisitions are two “key” themes driving bullish sentiment after Trump’s win, said Jacob Manoukian, head of U.S. investment strategy at J.P. Morgan Private Bank.
Relying solely on short-term price moves as an investment strategy is risky.
Jeremy Goldberg
portfolio manager and research analyst at Professional Advisory Services, Inc.
Additionally, U.S. regulators will likely be much less stringent about allowing potential mergers during Trump’s second term, experts said.
Companies in the streaming ecosystem — like Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD), which owns the Max streaming service, and Disney+ owner The Walt Disney Co. (DIS) — may be benefactors of looser rules around consolidation, they said.
Rosy earnings and AI
For some stocks, outperformance was tied to rosy quarterly earnings results or guidance that some companies reported around or after Election Day, experts said.
Many such businesses cited artificial intelligence as a growth driver.
For example, Palantir Technologies (PLTR), cited “unprecedented” demand for its AI platform in the third quarter, helping deliver “exceptionally strong” earnings, Treasurer and CFO David Glazer told investors Nov. 4.
Likewise, Axon beat analysts’ estimates in its Nov. 7 earnings results, with officials touting its “AI era plan” and raising earnings guidance, Goldberg said.
Axon and Palantir stocks were up 38% and 22%, respectively, from Nov. 5 to Nov. 20, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence.
Some companies benefited from a combination of policy and earnings, experts said.
Rows of servers fill Data Hall B at Facebook’s Fort Worth Data Center in Texas.
Paul Moseley/Fort Worth Star-Telegram/Tribune News Service via Getty Images
Take Vistra Corp. (VST), an energy provider, for example. The company’s stock jumped 27% after Election Day.
Vistra is in talks with large data centers — or “hyperscalers” — in Texas, Pennsylvania and Ohio to build or upgrade gas and nuclear plants, Stacey Doré, Vistra’s chief strategy and sustainability officer, said on the company’s Q3 earnings call Nov. 7.
Tesla’s stock got an “Elon Musk premium” from Trump’s victory, said Goldberg of Professional Advisory Services.
Musk, Tesla’s CEO, was one of Trump’s top campaign backers. Trump tapped him to co-lead a new Department of Government Efficiency. Shares of the electric-vehicle maker soared 14% the day after the election and almost 30% by week’s end.
President-elect Donald Trump and Elon Musk talk ring side during the UFC 309 event at Madison Square Garden on Nov. 16, 2024 in New York.
Chris Unger | Ufc | Getty Images
But Tesla stock has additional tailwinds, experts said.
For one, Trump wants to end a $7,500 federal tax credit for EVs. Scrapping that policy is expected to hurt Tesla’s EV rivals.
Tesla has also been developing technology for driverless vehicles. In Tesla’s recent earnings call, Musk said he’d use his influence in Trump’s administration to establish a “federal approval process for autonomous vehicles.”
The break from the bills is likely a relief to the many federal student loan borrowers enrolled in the Saving on a Valuable Education plan, known as SAVE. But it may also be causing them anxiety over the fact that they won’t get credit on their timeline to debt forgiveness.
For example, those also enrolled in the Public Service Loan Forgiveness program, who are entitled to loan cancellation after 10 years, have seen their journey toward that relief halted during the forbearance.
“Borrowers are frustrated about the delay toward forgiveness,” said higher education expert Mark Kantrowitz. “They feel like they’ve been waiting for Godot.”
Here’s what borrowers enrolled in SAVE should know about the delay to debt cancellation.
Delay could stretch on for months
In October, the U.S. Department of Education said that roughly 8 million federal student loan borrowers will remain in an interest-free forbearance while the courts decide the fate of the SAVE plan.
A federal court issued an injunction earlier this year preventing the Education Department from implementing parts of the SAVE plan, which the Biden administration had described as the most affordable repayment plan in history. Under SAVE’s terms, many people expected to see their monthly bills cut in half.
The forbearance is supposed to help borrowers who were counting on those lower monthly bills. But unlike the Covid-era pause on federal student loan payments, this forbearance does not bring borrowers closer to debt forgiveness under an income-driven repayment plan or Public Service Loan Forgiveness.
Adding to borrowers’ annoyance is that “those enrolled in the SAVE Plan were not given the choice of forbearance,” said Elaine Rubin, director of corporate communications at Edvisors, which helps students navigate college costs and borrowing. If borrowers want to stay in SAVE, they can’t opt out of this pause.
Borrowers enrolled in PSLF are especially concerned, Kantrowitz said. That program requires borrowers to work in public service while they’re repaying their student loans.
“They have been working in a qualifying job, but aren’t making progress toward forgiveness,” he said. “Some borrowers are working a job they hate, but are sticking with it in the expectation of qualifying for forgiveness. Others are close to retirement and don’t want to have to work past their normal retirement age just to get the forgiveness.”
What borrowers can do
Despite the delay toward forgiveness, there are still a few good reasons for borrowers to stay enrolled in SAVE, experts say. During the forbearance, borrowers are excused from payments and interest on their debt does not accrue.
Keep in mind: Even if you make payments under SAVE during the forbearance, your loan servicer will just apply that money toward future payments owed once the pause ends, the Education Department says.
If you’re eager to be back on your way to debt cancellation, you have options.
You may be able switch into another income-driven repayment plan that is still available. Under that new plan, you may have to start making payments again. Yet if you earn under around $20,000 as a single person, your monthly payment could still be $0, and therefore you might not lose anything by switching, Kantrowitz said.
Changing plans might be especially appealing to those who are very close to crossing the finish line to debt forgiveness and just want to see their balance wiped away, experts said. (You’ll likely be placed in a processing forbearance for a period while your loan servicer makes that switch. During that time, you will get credit toward forgiveness.)
The Education Department is also offering those who’ve been working in public service for 10 years the chance to “buy back” certain months in their payment history. This allows borrowers to make payments to cover previous months for which they didn’t get credit. But to be eligible for the option, the purchased months need to bring you to the 120 payments required for loan forgiveness.
“The buyback option might be eliminated under the Trump administration,” Kantrowitz said. “So, if you want to use it, you should use it now.”