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Americans are YOLO spending more but savings hits lows of Great Recession

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Arriel Vinson hadn’t traveled much before the pandemic. Now she can’t stop.

The 28-year-old writer leaves her Dallas apartment every chance she gets: to see Beyoncé in Atlanta, Usher in Chicago and for girls’ trips in Jamaica and Mexico. When a favorite artist announces new tour dates, Vinson starts rallying friends and snapping up tickets, flights and hotel rooms for their next hurrah.

“My mind-set has completely changed after covid: When I see something I want to do, I make it happen,” she said, adding that her new priorities have required some financial rejigging. “For a while I was going to dinner all the time. I was getting things delivered, but now I’m like, ‘I don’t want to waste money on that.’ I want to travel and go to shows.”

Whatever you call it — doom spending, soft saving, YOLOing (“you only live once”) — the coronavirus pandemic has changed the way Americans spend money. They are saving less but vacationing more, splurging on concerts and sporting events, and booking lavish trips years in advance. Spending on international travel and live entertainment surged roughly 30 percent last year, five times the rate of overall spending growth. Meanwhile, the personal savings rate is at a low not seen since the Great Recession.

And the spending spree has continued into 2024. Consumers spent $145.5 billion more in February than they did the month before — much of that on services — fueling the biggest monthly increase in more than a year, according to data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis released Friday. Meanwhile, the personal savings rate fell to 3.6 percent, from 4.1 percent the previous month.

Just like the Great Depression ushered in decades of frugality and austerity — with an entire generation reusing plastic bags, jam jars and aluminum foil — there are signs the coronavirus crisis has had the opposite effect: nudging Americans toward spending more, especially on experiences.

“When you live through a crisis, it gets ingrained in your brain,” said Ulrike Malmendier, a professor of behavioral finance at the University of California at Berkeley. “The official economic reports might say everything is coming back to normal, but we are different people than we were before the pandemic.”

Financial shocks have repeatedly reshaped the way people think about money, Malmendier said. “Depression babies,” those who came of age after the stock market crash of 1929, were notoriously mistrustful of banks and financial markets. People who have been unemployed are often cautious about spending long after they have found another job. And after the 2008 financial crisis, Americans began saving more of their paychecks, to guard against another massive downturn.

But unlike those financial crises, which led people to pull back, the coronavirus pandemic has left a decidedly different legacy.

“The adverse effects of covid weren’t necessarily financial; people got jobs quickly and the government stepped in with support,” Malmendier said. “Instead, it’s about all of the things we were starved for: human interaction, socializing, travel. People are spending money on the things they missed most.”

Carolyn McClanahan, a financial adviser in Jacksonville, Fla., is seeing this firsthand. Her clients are generally saving less than they were before the pandemic, she said. Instead of solely planning for retirement, they’re focused on “maximizing life now” to make room for more travel, concerts and fun.

“People already had this attitude that you only live once — and that’s been put on steroids,” she said. “Covid was a big wake-up call that life is precious, so you’ve got to enjoy it now.”

It helps that many Americans still have more money in the bank than they did before the pandemic. They have gotten substantial raises or higher-paying jobs that have made it possible to keep spending, despite inflation. Stock portfolios and home prices have soared, giving middle- and upper-class households an extra boost. As of last fall, Americans were still sitting on an extra $430 billion in pandemic savings, according to estimates from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. Yet consumers have been saving consistently less since the pandemic, with a particular drop-off last summer, coinciding with a strong spending boom.

Still, in a worrisome twist, families have been spending even if they don’t have the money. Credit card debt has risen 22 percent since the pandemic, and more shoppers are turning to “buy now, pay later” installment plans for routine purchases. Bank of America cardholders, for example, spent 7 percent more on travel and entertainment last year than they did in 2022. European summer vacations were particularly popular, with a 26 percent increase from the previous year.

That momentum has continued into the new year. More Americans are traveling than they were a year ago, Transportation Security Administration passenger data shows. And a near-record 22 percent of Americans say they are planning to vacation in a foreign country in the next six months, roughly double pre-pandemic levels, according to Conference Board survey data released this week.

Meanwhile, Live Nation — the parent company of Ticketmaster and the world’s largest entertainment company — posted a record $23 billion in sales last year and expects this year to be even bigger.

“Shows are flying out the door from top to bottom,” chief executive Michael Rapino said in a February earnings call. “We’re seeing no slowdown on the consumer.”

In interviews with more than a dozen Americans, many acknowledged that they are financially better off than they were a few years ago. But just as importantly, they said, they were spending differently — cutting back on midweek restaurant visits, for example, or buying fewer clothes, in favor of big-ticket items and memorable experiences.

All that spending on services helped push economic growth even higher in late 2023, up to a strong 3.4 percent — making the latter half of 2023 the strongest since 2014, outside of the pandemic years, according to data released Thursday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

In Seattle, Mike Lee’s free time has become a whirlwind of comedy shows, concerts, hockey games and weekend trips. The software developer, who got divorced early in the pandemic, has been lining up experiences far in advance: Hawaii in April, a Foo Fighters show in August.

“It’s changed the way I move through life,” the 40-year-old said. “I used to save obsessively, almost to a fault, but I’m learning to go out and enjoy life a little bit more.”

But he isn’t splurging across the board. Lee still drives a 20-year-old Toyota Corolla and has cut his restaurant spending by half. Instead, he has stocked his freezer with soup dumplings, chicken wings and other prepared foods to hold him over on evenings when he doesn’t feel like cooking.

Those types of trade-offs, economists say, are likely to continue as households settle into new habits. Families are canceling HBO Max and Disney Plus subscriptions, for example, or ditching grocery delivery and getting rid of Pelotons they hoarded back in 2020.

“People are trying to find the right balance between how they lived during the pandemic and how they want to live now,” said Nadia Vanderhall, a financial planner in Charlotte. “They’re spending more on experiencing life, but they’re also trying to figure out what it means for their finances.”

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Although economists expect a drop-off in spending this year, some are revising their forecasts: Fitch Ratings, for example, now expects consumer spending to grow by 1.3 percent in 2o24, even after inflation, more than double what it had initially predicted. Consumers are poised to keep tapping into savings, the firm said, which is expected to “support spending well into 2024.”

Susan Blume, a travel agent in Garden City, N.Y., is already booking river cruises along the Danube for 2026. International travel has exploded in the past few years, she said, and this year is on track to top them all.

“Everybody was just so confined during the pandemic that they never want to have that experience again,” she said.

But the biggest surprise: the rush of travelers in their mid-20s, far younger than Blume’s usual clientele.

“Gen Z has a very different attitude — they’re not going broke on Gucci or takeout,” she said. “Instead they’re squirreling away for travel. And they’re already planning next year’s big trip: all of Italy, or island-hopping in Greece, or four stops in France.”

It’s unclear exactly how long this era of experiential living will last, though economists say it’s likely to take a major shock, such as widespread job losses or a recession, to get Americans to rethink their spending.

“You have to really have a crash in employment to derail this consumer,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG. “This spending isn’t just a mirage, it’s a fundamental change.”

That relentless consumption has invigorated the economy and propped up millions of service-sector jobs. But it has also contributed to a run-up in prices: Inflation for services is at 3.8 percent, compared with a 0.2 percent decline for goods in the past year. That’s creating an ongoing challenge for the Federal Reserve, which has specifically flagged the need to see services inflation cool.

“There is certainly a big question mark there: Can the Fed get hotel inflation, airline inflation, concert inflation down without slowing demand for those things?” said Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management. “But so far people are still spending.”

Michael Sheridan, who lives in Clearwater, Fla., has been on 13 cruises in 17 months. The latest, which he booked on a Friday afternoon, left for the Bahamas the next morning.

The 58-year-old, who once owned a couple of Outback Steakhouses, is on a fixed income. He receives $2,400 a month in Social Security Disability Insurance payments because of a rare genetic disorder that forced him to stop working a decade ago. Sheridan relies on a wheelchair to get around, but he says he has been financially fortunate: His mother, who died in 2020, left him enough cash to buy a $109,000 condo outright.

Now his monthly checks go toward homeowners association fees ($350), phone bills ($40), groceries ($250) — and travel. He’s in Japan now and headed to Seattle in April, the Caribbean in June and Switzerland in July.

“The pandemic absolutely fed this travel addiction,” he said, adding that he was quick to take advantage of cheap airfares and hotel rates during early lockdowns. “I just realized, if all of a sudden something goes south, I’m going to regret not having traveled while I could.”

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Why tax-loss harvesting can be easier with ETFs

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Despite a strong year for the stock market, you could still be sitting on portfolio losses. But you can leverage down assets to score a tax break, experts say.

The tactic, known as “tax-loss harvesting,” involves selling losing brokerage account assets to claim a loss. When you file your taxes, you can use those losses to offset portfolio gains. Once your investment losses exceed profits, you can use the excess to reduce regular income by up to $3,000 per year.

“Tax-loss harvesting is a tried and true strategy to lower investors’ tax bills,” said certified financial planner David Flores Wilson, managing partner at Sincerus Advisory in New York. 

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After offsetting $3,000 in regular income, investors can carry any additional losses forward into future years to offset capital gains or income.

“Investors can benefit substantially over time” by tax-loss harvesting consistently throughout the year, Wilson said.

What to know about the wash sale rule

Tax-loss harvesting can be simple when you’re eager to offload a losing asset. But it’s tricky when you still want exposure to that asset.

That’s because of guidelines from the IRS known as the “wash sale rule,” which blocks you from claiming the tax break on losses if you rebuy a “substantially identical” asset within the 30-day window before or after the sale.

In other words, you can’t sell a losing asset to claim a loss and then immediately repurchase the same investment. 

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Ultimately, the IRS definition of “substantially identical” isn’t black and white and “depends on the facts and circumstances” of your case, according to the agency.

When in doubt, consider reviewing your plan with an advisor or tax professional to make sure you’re safe from violating the wash sale rule.

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Older voters prioritized personal economic issues on Election Day: AARP

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Voters line up to cast their ballots at a voting location in Bethlehem, Pennsylvania, on Nov. 5, 2024.

Samuel Corum | Afp | Getty Images

When asked, “Are you better off today than you were four years ago?” the answer for many older voters ages 50 and over was “no,” according to a new post-election poll released by the AARP.

Almost half — 47% — of voters ages 50 and over said they are “worse off now,” the research found, while more than half — 55% — of swing voters in that age cohort said the same.

In competitive Congressional districts, President-elect Donald Trump won the 50 and over vote by two percentage points — the same margin by which he carried the country, AARP found.

Among voters 50 to 64, Trump won by seven points. With voters ages 65 and over, Vice President Kamala Harris won by two points.

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The AARP commissioned Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research, a bipartisan team of Republican and Democrat firms providing public opinion research and consulting, to conduct the survey. Interviews were conducted with 2,348 “likely voters” in targeted congressional districts following Election Day between Nov. 6 and 10.

Older voters, who make up an outsized share of the vote and tend to lean Republican, made a difference in a lot of key congressional races, according to Bob Ward, a Republican pollster and partner at Fabrizio Ward.

“Overall, 50-plus voters really are what delivered Republicans their majority,” Ward said.

Older swing voters focused on pocketbook issues

When asked “How worried are you about your personal financial situation?” in a June AARP survey, 62% of voters ages 50 and over checked the worry box, while 63% of voters overall did the same.

Voters continued to place an emphasis on their money concerns on Election Day, the latest AARP poll found.

“All these surveys that we conducted for AARP spoke to a lack of economic security for people,” said Jeff Liszt, partner at Impact Research.

“The shock of inflation had left them without a feeling of security,” he said.

For voters ages 50 and over, food ranked as the top cost concern, with 39%, the poll found. That was followed by health care and prescription drugs, with 20%; housing, 14%; gasoline, 10%; and electricity, 6%.

More than half — 55% — of voters ages 50 and up said they prioritized personal economic issues, including inflation, the economy and jobs, and Social Security when determining their vote.

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Older swing voters were more likely to turn out at the polls due to those pocketbook issues than any other priorities, the poll found.  

Republicans won older voters on most personal economic issues, though voters ages 50 and up still favored Democrats on Social Security by two points.  

Democrats have traditionally had a stronger lead on Social Security, Ward said, while the poll results show it is now “completely up for grabs.”

“Looking at the midterms, whether I’m Republican or Democrat … this is going to be an issue I want to win on,” Ward said.

Voters 50 and over broadly support Medicare negotiating prescription drug prices, as well as policies to help the older population age at home. Non-financial issues such as immigration and border security and threats to democracy were also among top concerns for some older voters.

Social Security reform may be bigger focus

While both presidential candidates promised to protect Social Security on the campaign trail, they did not provide plans to restore the program’s solvency.

The trust fund Social Security relies on to pay benefits is projected to run dry in 2033, at which point 79% of those benefits will be payable.

“What’s absolutely clear is that there’s an action-forcing event that we’re getting closer to, and that at some point Congress is going to have to act,” said Nancy Altman, president of Social Security Works, an advocacy group focused on expanding the program.

While Trump has touted plans to eliminate taxes on Social Security benefits, research has found that would worsen the program’s insolvency. The House voted this week to eliminate rules that reduce Social Security benefits for certain people who have pension income, which would also add to the program’s costs.

For most Americans, Social Security is the primary source of retirement income, according to the AARP. About 42% of people ages 65 and over rely on the program for at least 50% of their incomes; about 20% rely on it for at least 90% of their incomes.

Like Social Security, Medicare also faces a looming trust fund depletion for the Part A program that covers hospital insurance.

“We want to ensure that we’re protecting Medicare, Social Security and that it’s done in a fiscally responsible way,” AARP CEO Dr. Myechia Minter-Jordan told CNBC in a recent interview.

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Here’s what to expect on mortgage rates into early 2025

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Mortgage rates seem to have steadied. That may be a good sign for the market, experts say.

The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage in the U.S. slightly dipped to 6.78% for the week ending Nov. 14, barely changed from 6.79% a week prior, according to Freddie Mac data via the Federal Reserve.

“Even though it’s higher than it has been over the course of several weeks, it’s probably good news for homebuyers,” said Jessica Lautz, deputy chief economist and vice president of research at the National Association of Realtors. 

“When rates are moving around a lot, it makes a lot of uncertainty in the market,” Lautz said. 

Mortgage rates declined this fall in anticipation of the first interest rate cut since March 2020. But then borrowing costs jumped again this month as the bond market reacted to Donald Trump’s election win.

While the president-elect has talked about bringing mortgage rates down, presidents do not control borrowing costs for home loans, experts say.

Instead, mortgage rates closely track Treasury yields and are partially affected by what happens with the federal funds rate.

“They foresee inflationary policies, whether it’s tariffs or greater government spending, the tax bill … they’re pricing in more inflation,” said James Tobin, president and CEO of the National Association of Home Builders. “As the bond market reacts, mortgage rates are going to react to that, too.”

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Less volatility can be a good sign, said Chen Zhao, Chief economist at Redfin, an online real estate brokerage.

“High volatility by itself actually pushes mortgage rates even higher above treasury yields,” Zhao said. “More stable rates also means that homebuyers don’t have to worry during their home search about what their budget allows for changing.”

Trump’s team did not respond to a request for comment.

Don’t expect ‘huge swings’ on mortgage rates

Election uncertainty contributed to an upward swing in mortgage rates during October. Then rates went up even more last week as the stock market and yields reacted to the election results.

The 10-year Treasury yield jumped 15 basis points on Nov. 6, closing to trade at 4.43%, hitting its highest level since July, as investors bet a Trump presidency would increase economic growth, along with fiscal spending. The yield on the 2-year Treasury was up by 0.073 basis point to 4.276% that day, reaching its highest level since July 31.

But now that we have a president-elect, mortgage rates are expected to gradually come down over time, Lautz said.

From a monetary policy standpoint, future rate cuts are up in the air. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said on Thursday that strong U.S. economic growth will allow policymakers to take their time in deciding how far and how fast to lower interest rates.

If the Fed continues to ease the federal funds rate, it could provide indirect downward pressure on mortgage rates, according to NAHB chief economist Robert Dietz.

“However, improved growth expectations would lead to higher rates, as would larger government deficits,” he said.

Experts say that mortgage rates might head into a “bumpy” or “volatile” path over the next year.

“I don’t think that there’s going to be any huge swings down into the 5% range,” Lautz said. “Our expectation is that rates are going to be in the 6% range as we move into 2025,” she said.

How buyers, sellers and homeowners can benefit

Rates that are trending lower can present an opportunity for buyers who have been house hunting for a while, especially as the winter season kicks in. Competition tends to slow down in the winter months in part because homebuyers with kids are in the middle of the school year and reluctant to move, Lautz explained. 

Our expectation is that rates are going to be in the 6% range as we move into 2025.

Jessica Lautz

Jessica Lautz, deputy chief economist and vice president of research at the National Association of Realtors

Current homeowners can also make the most of lower rates.

For example, if you bought your home around this time last year, when mortgage rates peaked at around 8%, you might benefit from a mortgage refinance, Lautz said. 

It “makes sense” to consider a refinance if rates have fallen one to two points since you took out the loan, Jeff Ostrowski, a housing expert at Bankrate.com, told CNBC after the Fed’s first rate cut this fall.

Remember that a loan refinance isn’t free; you may incur associated costs like closing costs, an appraisal and title insurance. While the total cost will depend on your area, a refi is going to cost between 2% and 6% of the loan amount, Jacob Channel, an economist at LendingTree, said at that time.

If you’re pondering on whether to refi or not, look at what’s going on with rates, reach out to lenders and see if refinancing makes sense for you, experts say.

Homeowners have earned record home equity. U.S. homeowners with mortgages have a net homeowner equity of over $17.6 trillion in the second quarter of 2024, according to CoreLogic. Home equity increased in the second quarter of this year by $1.3 trillion, an 8.0% growth from a year prior.

If you’re looking to sell your current home, you may be able to counteract slightly high borrowing costs on your next property by placing a larger down payment, Lautz said.

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