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America’s foreign aid pause puts lives at risk

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THE SPRAWLING al-Hol camp in north-eastern Syria is part of a network of prisons holding tens of thousands of detainees and family members from Islamic State’s jihadist “caliphate”, which was smashed by America and its allies in 2019. Western securocrats have long worried that prisoners might break out and wreak bloody havoc, in Syria and abroad. Such fears have intensified given the turmoil after the fall of Syrian dictator, Bashar al-Assad, in December.

There could scarcely be a worse time for the Trump administration to order, as it did on January 24th, an immediate halt to almost all aid work—at al-Hol and around the world—pending a 90-day review to ensure foreign assistance aligns with America First principles. The only exceptions were aid for Israel and Egypt (mostly military) and “emergency food aid”.  Waivers could subsequently be issued on a case by case basis.

Chart: The Economist

America is by far the world’s largest aid donor, spending $68bn in fiscal 2023, the most recent year. The US accounts for about 40% of all humanitarian assistance provided by governments. The announcement of an abrupt cutoff of much of this money hit humanitarian agencies like an earthquake. American-funded projects wobbled and some risked collapse.

The affected work included the distribution of antiretroviral drugs for people infected with HIV under a scheme known as PEPFAR, credited with saving some 26m lives since 2003; medical services for Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh; mine-clearing in South-East Asia; reconstruction of bombed-out energy infrastructure in Ukraine; pro-democracy work in Russia’s near-abroad; and much more.

“Every dollar we spend, every program we fund, and every policy we pursue must be justified with the answer to three simple questions: Does it make America safer? Does it make America stronger? Does it make America more prosperous?” the state department said.

Among the casualties were groups working at al-Hol, home to about 40,000 Islamic State (IS) fighters and their relatives, among them European women who married combatants and bore their children. The Kurdish-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which controls north-eastern Syria, is in charge of security at the camps. But aid workers speak of a free-for-all within. Women loyal to IS hold sway with guns and train a new generation of ideologues. The perimeter is pierced by tunnels, allowing weapons in and inmates out. Killings are commonplace. Children are sold as fighters. “It’s more an IS base than a prison,” says a Western researcher.

Blumont, the American firm that manages al-Hol (and a smaller camp called Roj) under a state department contract, says its teams left the camps when they received the stop-work order, and arranged for other groups to provide “very much reduced basic services”. Some humanitarian groups said they were issuing termination letters for their staff. On January 27th Blumont received a 14-day waiver and said its staff returned the next day.

Amid chaos and an outcry that countless lives were at risk, Marco Rubio, the secretary of state, later widened exemptions to include “life-saving humanitarian assistance”. This includes “medical services, food, shelter, and subsistence assistance, as well as supplies and reasonable administrative costs.” Programs would not be funded if they involved abortion, family-planning, transgender surgeries or other aid deemed not to be life-saving.

Even with this concession, aid groups say confusion abounds. “Does work on clean water count as life-saving aid?” asked an official in one large ngo. Some projects were being closed because of the uncertainty. The status of PEPFAR is unclear.

Waivers apparently still need to be issued case-by-case. Whether the government has the staff to process them quickly is another question. Few of the state department’s political appointees have yet arrived. USAID, the main American development agency, has furloughed hundreds of senior staff and contractors. One spoke of a “sad and apocalyptic” atmosphere.

The state department says the full halt was necessary because “it is impossible to evaluate programs on autopilot”, arguing that those running them have little incentive to give details if the money keeps flowing. It claims to have already saved about $1bn, halting things such as the delivery of condoms to Gaza, sex education globally and clean-energy programmes for women in Fiji. The department offered no details to support its $1bn estimate.

Al-Hol offers just one example of how stopping work suddenly for such dubious reasons is an avoidable act of self-harm. “Without aid, it’s difficult to maintain the security of the camps,” says Ali Rahmoun, a spokesman for the Syrian Democratic Council, the political wing of the SDF. “The jihadists won’t just be a problem for Syria but for the region and even Europe.”

Americans would be in danger, too. Shamsud-Din Jabbar, a 42-year-old US army veteran, rammed his Ford pickup into a crowd in New Orleans on New Year’s Day, killing 14. He was killed by police. In his vehicle they found IS’s black flag. 

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Economics

Job openings showed surprising increase to 7.4 million in April

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JOLTS beats estimates, posts best number since February

Employers increased job openings more than expected in April while hiring and layoffs also both rose, according to a report Tuesday that showed a relatively steady labor market.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey showed available jobs totaled nearly 7.4 million, an increase of 191,000 from March and higher than the 7.1 million consensus forecast by economists surveyed by FactSet. On an annual basis, the level was off 228,000, or about 3%.

The ratio of available jobs to unemployed workers was down close to 1.03 to 1 for the month, close to the March level.

Hiring also increased for the month, rising by 169,000 to 5.6 million, while layoffs fell by 196,000 to 1.79 million.

Quits, an indicator of worker confidence in their ability to find another job, edged lower, falling by 150,000 to 3.2 million.

“The labor market is returning to more normal levels despite the uncertainty within the macro outlook,” wrote Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Research. “Underlying patterns in hirings and firings suggest the labor market is holding steady.”

In other economic news Tuesday, the Commerce Department reported that new orders for manufactured goods fell more than expected in April. Orders fell 3.7% on the month, more than the 3.3% Dow Jones forecast and indicative of declining demand after swelling 3.4% in March as businesses sought to get ahead of President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

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Economics

Euro zone inflation, May 2025

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Shoppers buy fresh vegetables, fruit, and herbs at an outdoor produce market under green-striped canopies in Regensburg, Upper Palatinate, Bavaria, Germany, on April 19, 2025.

Michael Nguyen/NurPhoto via Getty Images

Euro zone inflation fell below the European Central Bank’s 2% target in May, hitting a cooler-than-expected 1.9% as the services print eased sharply, flash data from statistics agency Eurostat showed Tuesday.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected the May reading to come in at 2%, compared to the previous month’s 2.2% figure.

The closely watched services inflation print cooled sharply, amounting to 3.2% last month, compared to the previous 4% reading. So-called core inflation, which excludes energy, food, tobacco and alcohol prices, also eased, falling from 2.7% in April to 2.3% in May.

“May’s steep decline in services inflation, to its lowest level in more than three years, confirms that the previous month’s jump was just an Easter-related blip and that the downward trend in services inflation remains on track,” Jack Allen-Reynolds, deputy chief euro zone economist at Capital Economics said in a note.

Inflation has been moving back towards the 2% mark throughout 2025 amid uncertainty for the euro zone economy.

The latest figures will be considered by the European Central Bank as it prepares to make its next interest rate decision later this week. Markets were last pricing in an around 95% chance of interest rates being cut by a further 25-basis-points on Thursday.

Back in April, the central bank took its key rate, the deposit facility rate, to 2.25% — nearly half of the high of 4% notched in the middle of 2023.

But the global economic outlook remains muddied. U.S. President Donald Trump’s protectionist tariff plans have been casting shadows over the global economic outlook, with his so-called “reciprocal” duties — which are also set to affect the European Union — widely seen as harmful to economic growth. Their immediate potential impact on inflation is less clear, with central bank policymakers and analysts noting that it could depend on any potential countermeasures.

Despite the transatlantic tumult, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development in its latest Economic Outlook report out on Tuesday said it was expecting the euro area to expand by 1% in 2025, unchanged from its previous forecast. Euro area inflation is meanwhile projected to come in at 2.2% this year, also in line with the March report.

Euro country bond yields were last lower after the fresh inflation data, with the German 10-year bond yield falling by over two basis points to 2.499%, while the yield on the French 10-year bond was last down by more than one basis point to 3.169%.

The euro was meanwhile last around 0.3% lower against the dollar.

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U.S. growth forecast cut further by OECD as Trump tariffs sour outlook

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Old Navy and Gap retail stores are seen as people walk through Times Square in New York City on April 9, 2025.

Angela Weiss | Afp | Getty Images

Economic growth forecasts for the U.S. and globally were cut further by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development as President Donald Trump’s tariff turmoil weighs on expectations.

The U.S. growth outlook was downwardly revised to just 1.6% this year and 1.5% in 2026. In March, the OECD was still expecting a 2.2% expansion in 2025.

The fallout from Trump’s tariff policy, elevated economic policy uncertainty, a slowdown of net immigration and a smaller federal workforce were cited as reasons for the latest downgrade.

Global growth, meanwhile, is also expected to be lower than previously forecast, with the OECD saying that “the slowdown is concentrated in the United States, Canada and Mexico,” while other economies are projected to see smaller downward revisions.

“Global GDP growth is projected to slow from 3.3% in 2024 to 2.9% this year and in 2026 … on the technical assumption that tariff rates as of mid-May are sustained despite ongoing legal challenges,” the OECD said.

It had previously forecast global growth of 3.1% this year and 3% in 2026.

“The global outlook is becoming increasingly challenging,” the report said. “Substantial increases in barriers to trade, tighter financial conditions, weaker business and consumer confidence and heightened policy uncertainty will all have marked adverse effects on growth prospects if they persist.”

Frequent changes regarding tariffs have continued in recent weeks, leading to uncertainty in global markets and economies. Some of the most recent developments include Trump’s reciprocal, country-specific levies being struck down by the U.S. Court of International Trade, before then being reinstated by an appeals court, as well as Trump saying he would double steel duties to 50%.

The OECD adjusted its inflation forecast, saying “higher trade costs, especially in countries raising tariffs, will also push up inflation, although their impact will be offset partially by weaker commodity prices.”

The impact of tariffs on inflation has been hotly debated, with many central bank policymakers and global analysts suggesting it remains unclear how the levies will impact prices, and that much depends on factors like potential countermeasures.

The OECD’s inflation outlook shows a notable difference between the U.S. and some of the world’s other major economies. For instance, while G20 countries are now expected to record 3.6% inflation in 2025 — down from 3.8% in March’s estimate — the projection for the U.S. has risen to 3.2%, up from a previous 2.8%.

U.S. inflation could even be closing in on 4% toward the end of 2025, the OECD said.

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