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Are American progressives making themselves sad?

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Surely few developments could be less surprising than the recent news that America has slipped down the global happiness rankings. Gallup reported in mid-March that America had dropped out of the top 20 for the first time since it started taking its survey in 2012, falling in a year from 15th place to 23rd. (Yes, annoyingly, Finland came out on top, for the seventh straight year.)

Their economy and technology may be the envy of the world, but Americans are becoming a dyspeptic bunch, anxious about the future and uneasy about foundational institutions, from the armed forces to the press to organised religion. Yet all are not equally sad. Numerous studies and surveys—Americans are obsessed with this subject—show that some groups tend to lag behind others in the pursuit of happiness: bankers are said to be sadder than lumberjacks, the unmarried sadder than the married, teenage girls sadder than teenage boys.

One distinction that holds true today has persisted for decades: liberals are sadder than conservatives. This is a global symptom of political difference, but it is particularly strong in America. Of whatever age group or whichever sex, liberals are also far more likely than conservatives to report having been diagnosed with a mental illness.

In the new Gallup survey self-reported happiness fell for every age group, but most precipitously for those 30 and younger. Older Americans ranked tenth globally in happiness, whereas younger Americans ranked 62nd. That is a change from a decade ago, when the two groups reported similar levels of happiness. The trend is consistent with data from the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention, which surveys 17,000 high-school students every two years. Rates of mental-health problems have increased with every survey since 2011, and last year the CDC reported the highest rates of sadness found in a decade, particularly among girls.

In a study in 2021 called “The Politics of Depression”, a group of scholars zeroed in on the possible link between political ideology and unhappiness among teenagers. They found an alarming rise in depression among young people starting in 2012, and, like the cDC, a particular increase among girls. But ideological difference mattered more than gender difference. Liberal boys reported higher rates of depression than conservative boys or girls, and liberal girls reported the highest rates of all.

Disentangling correlation from cause to explain the happiness gap between conservatives and liberals has long vexed social psychologists and political commentators. So, no doubt, has the task of disentangling one’s own politics from one’s hypotheses. The authors of the study connected the rise of depression with the spread of social media. They also argued that conservative ideology may help protect mental health, for reasons that did not flatter conservatives: “This group presumably benefits from the American cultural myth of an equal playing field in which exceptional social positions are thought to be earned through hard work and talent rather than inherited through codified privilege.” Liberal adolescents, they wrote, may feel alienated in contrast to conservative peers “whose hegemonic views were flourishing”.

A possible flaw in this theory is that, in the first four years that young liberals’ mental health declined, Barack Obama was president and conservative views were not so successfully hegemonic. Even before 2012, when teenagers reported relatively stable mental health, young liberals, like older liberals, reported higher rates of depression. Sceptics of the authors’ hypothesis have noted that being conservative could confer psychological benefits for less cynical reasons. Conservatives tend to be healthier, more patriotic and more religious, and to report finding higher levels of meaning in their lives. These characteristics correlate with happiness.

It is possible that liberalism does not just correlate with sadness but may exacerbate it. Musa al-Gharbi, a sociologist at Stony Brook University, has noted that educated, affluent white liberals have come to endorse the idea that America is systemically racist, leading them to view other racial and ethnic groups more warmly than their own. “This tension—being part of a group that one hates—creates strong dissociative pressures on many white liberals,” he wrote in the journal American Affairs. Another hypothesis, advanced by Jonathan Haidt, a social psychologist, and Greg Lukianoff, a lawyer, is that liberals are performing a reverse cognitive behavioural therapy on themselves: promoting not resilience and optimism about incrementally improving the world but catastrophic rumination about problems such as climate change and fearfulness of disagreement even on university campuses. Such habits of mind can deepen depression.

Mopes and change

Research has found liberals to be more empathetic than conservatives, so in a troubled world one might expect them to be sadder. But a profound shift appears to be under way when it comes to excitement about change. “One of the fundamental traits of the conservative attitude is a fear of change, a timid distrust of the new as such,” wrote Friedrich Hayek in “The Constitution of Liberty” in 1960, “while the liberal position is based on courage and confidence, on a preparedness to let change run its course.”

Mr Obama, whose summons to “hope and change” rhymed with his own biography, may have marked high water for this idea of American liberalism, as opposed to today’s progressivism. President Joe Biden has negotiated potentially transformative legislation, but he presents himself as guarding against radical change. Donald Trump has robbed liberalism of its transgressive glamour and made conservatism mean its opposite: disruption, subversion, challenge to fuddy-duddies and the status quo—all that cool stuff. It’s kind of depressing. 

Read more from Lexington, our columnist on American politics:
The case of Stormy Daniels echoes past scandals (Mar 27th)
Binyamin Netanyahu is alienating Israel’s best friends (Mar 18th)
“Dune” is a warning about political heroes and their tribes (Mar 14th)

Also: How the Lexington column got its name

Economics

Will the Supreme Court empower Trump to sack the Fed’s boss?

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OVER 14 seasons of “The Apprentice”, Donald Trump gleefully dispatched more than 200 contestants for botching a task or ruffling the wrong feather. In his second term as president, Mr Trump is discovering that axing federal-agency heads protected by “for-cause” removal statutes may require more than an imperious finger-point. In the latest of a series of emergency applications to the Supreme Court, he is asking the justices to grant him the unfettered power he once wielded on reality TV.

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Economics

Fed Governor Waller sees tariff inflation as ‘transitory’ in ‘Tush Push’ comparison

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Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller speaks during The Clearing House Annual Conference in New York City, U.S. November 12, 2024. 

Brendan Mcdermid | Reuters

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said Monday he expects the impacts of President Donald Trump’s tariffs on prices to be “transitory,” embracing a term that got the central bank in trouble during the last bout of inflation.

“I can hear the howls already that this must be a mistake given what happened in 2021 and 2022. But just because it didn’t work out once does not mean you should never think that way again,” Waller said in remarks for a policy speech in St. Louis that compared his inflation view to the controversial “Tush Push” football play.

Laying out two scenarios for what the duties eventually will look like, Waller said larger and longer-lasting tariffs would bring a larger inflation spike initially to a 4%-5% range that eventually would ebb as growth slowed and unemployment increased. In the smaller-tariff scenario, inflation would hit around 3% and then fall off.

Either case would still see the Fed cutting interest rates, with timing being the only question, he said. Larger tariffs might force a cut to support growth, while smaller duties might allow a “good news” cut later this year, Waller added.

“Yes, I am saying that I expect that elevated inflation would be temporary, and ‘temporary’ is another word for transitory,'” he said. “Despite the fact that the last surge of inflation beginning in 2021 lasted longer than I and other policymakers initially expected, my best judgment is that higher inflation from tariffs will be temporary.”

The “transitory” term harkens back to the inflation spike in 2021 that Fed officials and many economists expected to ease after supply chain and demand factors related to the Covid pandemic normalized.

However, prices continued to rise, hitting their highest since the early 1980s and necessitating a series of dramatic rate hikes. While inflation has pulled back substantially since the Fed started raising in 2022, it remains above the central bank’s 2% target. The Fed cut its benchmark borrowing rate by a full percentage point in late 2024 but has not cut further this year.

A Trump appointee during the president’s first term, Waller used a football analogy to explain his views on “transitory” inflation. He cited the Philadelphia Eagles’ famed “Tush Push” play that the team has used to great effect on short-yardage and goal line situations.

“You are the Philadelphia Eagles and it is fourth down and a few inches from the goal line. You call for the Tush Push but fail to convert by running the ball,” he said. “Since it didn’t work out the way you expected, does that mean that you shouldn’t call for the Tush Push the next time you face a similar situation? I don’t think so.”

Waller estimated that Trump has either of two goals from the tariffs: to keep the levies high and remake the economy, or use them as negotiating tactics. In the first case, he sees growth slowing “to a crawl” while the unemployment rate rises “significantly.” If the tariffs are negotiated down, he sees the impact on inflation to be “significantly smaller.”

In the other case, he said “one of the biggest shocks to affect the U.S. economy in many decades” is making forecasting and policymaking difficult. Fed officials will need to “remain flexible” in deciding the future path.

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Economics

Unemployment fears hit worst levels since Covid, Fed survey shows

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People shop for produce at a Walmart in Rosemead, California, on April 11, 2025. 

Frederic J. Brown | Afp | Getty Images

Consumer worries grew over inflation, unemployment and the stock market as the global trade war heated up in March, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey released Monday.

The central bank’s monthly Survey of Consumer Expectations showed that respondents saw inflation a year from now at 3.6%, an increase of half a percentage point from February and the highest reading since October 2023.

Along with concerns over a higher cost of living came a surge in worries over the labor market: The probability that the unemployment rate would be higher a year from now surged to 44%, a move up of 4.6 percentage points and the highest level going back to the early Covid pandemic days of April 2020.

The survey also showed angst about the uncertainty translating into problems for stock market prices.

The expectation that the market will be higher a year from low slid to 33.8%, a decline of 3.2 percentage points to the lowest reading going back to June 2022. While the expectations for equities pulled back, respondents said they figure gold to rise by 5.2%, the highest since April 2022.

The survey reflects other readings, such as the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, which showed one-year expectations in mid-April at their highest since November 1981.

In the case of the New York Fed measure, the survey took place ahead of President Donald Trump’s April 2 “liberation day” tariff announcement, as well as the 90-day suspension of the order a week later. However, it is largely consistent with other measures reflecting consumer concern over the impact tariffs will have, even as market-based measures show inflation worries are low among traders.

Expectations for inflation at the five-year horizon actually edged lower to 2.9%, down 0.1 percentage point, and were unchanged for the three-year outlook at 3%. The outlook for food prices a year from now nudged up to 5.2%, its highest since May 2024, and was at 7.2% for rent, an increase of half a point. The outlook for medical care costs also jumped to an expected 7.9% increase, the most since August 2024.

Respondents expect gasoline to rise by 3.2%, a 0.5 percentage point drop from the February outlook.

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