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Are immigrants taking jobs from U.S. workers? Here’s what economists say

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The first debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump is shown on television at the Juventud 2000 migrant shelter in Tijuana, Mexico, on Sept. 10, 2024. Immigration has been a hot topic throughout the presidential campaign.

Carlos Moreno/NurPhoto via Getty Images

The idea that immigration has a negative impact on the U.S. job market is a common theme of former President Donald Trump’s speeches on the presidential campaign trail.

“They’re taking your jobs,” the Republican nominee told supporters on Sept. 21 in Wilmington, North Carolina.

Immigration is also a top issue for Republican voters: 82% of Trump supporters say immigration is “very important” to their vote in the 2024 presidential election, second only to the economy, according to the Pew Research Center. It’s the lowest-priority issue for Democrats, Pew found. Pew polled 9,720 U.S. adults from Aug. 26 through Sept. 2.

However, evidence suggests immigrants help the overall economy. And, at a high level, they aren’t taking jobs from or reducing the wages of U.S.-born (or so-called native) workers, according to economists who study the impact of immigration on the labor market.

“Overall, the consensus is very strong that there are not significant costs to U.S.-born workers from immigration, at least the type of immigration we have historically had in the U.S.,” said Alexander Arnon, director of business tax and economic analysis at the Penn Wharton Budget Model.

Immigrants expected to boost the economy

There are several reasons why immigrants largely benefit the economy and job market, economists said.

For one, the job market isn’t static.

Immigrants take jobs but they also create new ones by spending in local economies and by starting businesses, economists said. One 2020 research paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research found immigrants are 80% more likely to become entrepreneurs than native workers.

A recent “surge” of immigrants to the U.S. is expected to add $8.9 trillion (or 3.2%) to the nation’s GDP over the next decade, according to the Congressional Budget Office, a nonpartisan scorekeeper for Congress.

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“That’s enormous,” said Michael Clemens, a professor at George Mason University and an economist whose research examines the economic causes and effects of migration. “That creates jobs, that raises pay, that is an increase in the size and complexity of the U.S. economy.”

Immigrants also aren’t perfect substitutes for U.S. citizens in many job positions; in fact, the two groups often complement each other rather than compete, economists said.

However, some economic research suggests immigration can impact the wages of certain subgroups of U.S.-born workers, especially those with lower levels of educational attainment.

Overall, the consensus is very strong that there are not significant costs to U.S.-born workers from immigration.

Alexander Arnon

director of business tax and economic analysis at the Penn Wharton Budget Model

Some economists contend an influx of immigrants can reduce wages for such Americans in the short term, though other researchers have found that Americans ultimately benefit, partly because those in direct competition with immigrants are able to find higher-paying jobs.

“Not everybody agrees about it,” Clemens said.

A big supply of new labor due to immigration can be “difficult and anxiety-inducing” for American workers who must adjust, he added.

“But people end up in better circumstances,” he said.

Immigration helped cool ‘overheated’ job market

The El Chaparral pedestrian border crossing at the San Ysidro Port of Entry in Tijuana, Mexico, on Jan. 4, 2024. 

Carlos Moreno/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Immigrants accounted for about 14% of the U.S. population in 2022, according to Pew, citing most recently available federal data.

Most are in the U.S. legally: Undocumented immigrants represented 3.3% of the total U.S. population and 23% of immigrants in 2022, Pew said. Their number has increased in recent years, to 11 million, but remains below its 2007 peak of more than 12 million.

The number of immigrants coming to the U.S. has “increased sharply in recent years,” the CBO wrote in July.

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Net immigration is expected to be 8.7 million people higher from 2021 to 2026 than would have been extrapolated from pre-Covid migration trends, the CBO said. (Its analysis excludes those with green cards.)

The influx has been beneficial for the pandemic-era economy, economists said.

It “helped cool an overheated labor market” over the past two years, Elior Cohen, an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, wrote in May.

Demand for workers hit historic highs as the U.S. economy started to reopen in 2021. Wages rose sharply — at their fastest pace in decades — as businesses competed for workers, putting upward pressure on high inflation.

Immigrant labor alleviated “severe staffing shortages,” especially in industries like leisure and hospitality, helping dilute those inflationary wage pressures, Cohen wrote.

In this sense, immigrants weren’t competing with U.S. citizens for jobs but instead taking a surplus of available jobs, said Giovanni Peri, an economics professor and director of the Global Migration Center at the University of California, Davis.

In fact, a long-term net decline in the number of non-college-educated immigrants to the U.S. from 2010 to 2021 likely contributed to those recent labor shortages, he said.

“If there is a time when low-skilled immigration isn’t competing with natives and helping fill shortages, it’s been the last two years,” Peri said.

‘Little evidence’ of employment impact

Even before the Covid-19 pandemic, economists from varying sides of the debate published a “consensus” viewpoint in 2017 on the job market effect of immigration, Clemens said.

The panel of economists found “little evidence that immigration significantly affects” overall employment levels among Americans, they wrote for the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine.

“I’d say the consensus has gotten [even] stronger” since then, said Arnon of the Penn Wharton Budget Model, who authored a separate 2016 analysis of existing research on immigration’s economic impact.

To the extent there’s job competition from new immigrants, it tends to fall mostly on prior immigrants rather than native U.S. workers, according to the National Academies paper.

Prior immigrants are most likely to experience “negative wage effects,” it said.

However, native-born high school dropouts may experience that effect, as well, since they “share job qualifications similar to the large share of low-skilled [immigrant] workers,” the National Academies paper said.

Immigrants without a high school degree account for the largest share of foreign-born workers, followed by those with graduate or professional degrees, according to the Penn Wharton analysis.

A heated debate on low-skilled workers

A boat arrives in Key West, Florida with Cuban refugees in April 1980 from Mariel Harbor after crossing the Florida Straits.

Tim Chapman | Miami Herald | Getty Images

One influential — and controversial — paper by Harvard economist George Borjas echoes that finding about high school dropouts.

Borjas — who was among the more than three dozen economists who authored the National Academies consensus paper — studied the Mariel boatlift, a mass emigration of 125,000 Cuban refugees to South Florida from April to October 1980.

At least 60% of these “Marielitos” were high school dropouts, he said. Borjas found that the large boost in labor supply caused the wages of high school dropouts in Miami to drop “dramatically,” by 10% to 30%.

Stephen Miller, a senior policy adviser during the Trump administration, cited the paper in 2017 as a justification for a new proposal to curtail legal immigration, particularly among lower-skilled workers.

Asked to comment on Trump’s campaign statements about immigration and jobs, Anna Kelly, a spokeswoman for the Republican National Committee, said in an emailed statement that the former president “has never wavered in his promise to put America First, including workers born in the USA and incentivizing companies to keep jobs at home.”

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Borjas’ finding was in contrast with earlier work by economist and Nobel laureate David Card, who had found the Mariel boatlift didn’t increase unemployment or negatively affect wages of “less-skilled” non-Cuban or Cuban workers.

Some economists, including Clemens, dispute Borjas’ findings. Borjas didn’t return a request for comment.

“Sudden surges of immigration obviously affect the ability of native workers to find and take jobs on a given afternoon,” Clemens said.

But immigrants “also create jobs,” Clemens said. “A large preponderance of evidence is the job creation effect overwhelms the competition effect, even in the short term.”

Effect may depend on the economic environment

Migrant workers pick strawberries during harvest south of San Francisco.

Joe Sohm/Visions Of America | Universal Images Group | Getty Images

Native U.S. workers and immigrants, even those with similar educational backgrounds, tend to complement each other via their skills, making each other more productive and in essence jointly creating each other’s jobs, Clemens said.

For example, in a restaurant, a native worker with better command of spoken English might be a waiter, while an immigrant might do kitchen-prep work or wash dishes, tasks that don’t require such language dexterity. On farms, native workers might be supervisors or run high-tech equipment while immigrants handpick crops, Clemens said.

Research by Peri and Alessandro Caiumi of the University of California, Davis, finds that factors like “occupational upgrading” generally lead native workers who initially compete with immigrants for jobs to earn higher wages in the future.

For example, from 2000 to 2019, such factors helped boost wages for less-educated native workers by a “significant” 1.7% to 2.6%, and there was also “no significant wage effect on college educated natives,” Peri and Caiumi wrote. Similarly, from 2019 to 2022, estimates suggest “small positive effects” on wages.

Ultimately, “what might have happened in Florida during the Mariel boatlift in the 1980s may be different than what happens in Arizona in the 2010s,” said Michael Strain, director of economic policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute, a right-leaning think tank.

“From a policy perspective, you have to figure out which of the studies are most relevant to the current economic environment you’re considering,” Strain said.

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Trump admin seeks Education Department layoff ban lifted

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A demonstrator speaks through a megaphone during a Defend Our Schools rally to protest U.S. President Donald Trump’s executive order to shut down the U.S. Department of Education, outside its building in Washington, D.C., U.S., March 21, 2025.

Kent Nishimura | Reuters

The Trump administration on Friday asked the Supreme Court to lift a court order to reinstate U.S. Department of Education employees the administration had terminated as part of its efforts to dismantle the agency.

Officials for the administration are arguing to the high court that U.S. District Judge Myong Joun in Boston didn’t have the authority to require the Education Department to rehire the workers. More than 1,300 employees were affected by the mass layoffs.

The staff reduction “effectuates the Administration’s policy of streamlining the Department and eliminating discretionary functions that, in the Administration’s view, are better left to the States,” Solicitor General D. John Sauer wrote in the filing.

A federal appeals court had refused on Wednesday to lift the judge’s ruling.

In his May 22 preliminary injunction, Joun pointed out that the staff cuts led to the closure of seven out of 12 offices tasked with the enforcement of civil rights, including protecting students from discrimination on the basis of race and disability.

Meanwhile, the entire team that supervises the Free Application for Federal Student Aid, or FAFSA, was also eliminated, the judge said. (Around 17 million families apply for college aid each year using the form, according to higher education expert Mark Kantrowitz.)

The Education Dept. announced its reduction in force on March 11 that would have gutted the agency’s staff.

Two days later, 21 states — including Michigan, Nevada and New York — filed a lawsuit against the Trump administration for its staff cuts at the agency.

After President Donald Trump signed an executive order on March 20 aimed at dismantling the Education Department, more parties sued to save the department, including the American Federation of Teachers.

This is breaking news. Please refresh for updates.

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Health insurance coverage losses under House GOP tax, spending bill

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Fatcamera | E+ | Getty Images

The House tax and spending bill would push millions of Americans off health insurance rolls, as Republicans cut programs like Medicaid and the Affordable Care Act to fund priorities from President Donald Trump, including almost $4 trillion of tax cuts. 

The Congressional Budget Office, a nonpartisan legislative scorekeeper, projects about 11 million people would lose health coverage due to provisions in the House bill, if enacted in its current form. It estimates another 4 million or so would lose insurance due to expiring Obamacare subsidies, which the bill doesn’t extend.

The ranks of the uninsured would swell as a result of policies that would add barriers to access, raise insurance costs and deny benefits outright for some people like certain legal immigrants.  

The legislation, known as the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” may change as Senate Republicans now consider it. Health care cuts have proven to be a thorny issue. A handful of GOP senators — enough to torpedo the bill — don’t appear to back cuts to Medicaid, for example.

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The bill would add $2.4 trillion to the national debt over a decade, CBO estimates. That’s after cutting more than $900 billion from health care programs during that time, according to the Penn Wharton Budget Model.

The cuts are a sharp shift following incremental increases in the availability of health insurance and coverage over the past 50 years, including through Medicare, Medicaid and the Affordable Care Act, according to Alice Burns, associate director with KFF’s program on Medicaid and the uninsured.

“This would be the biggest retraction in health insurance that we’ve ever experienced,” Burns said. “That’s makes it really difficult to know how people, providers, states, would react.”

Here are the major ways the bill would increase the number of uninsured.

No population ‘safe’ from proposed Medicaid cuts

Speaker of the House Mike Johnson, R-La., pictured at a press conference after the House narrowly passed a bill forwarding President Donald Trump’s agenda on May 22 in Washington, DC.

Kevin Dietsch | Getty Images

Federal funding cuts to Medicaid will have broad implications, experts say.

“No population, frankly, is safe from a bill that cuts more than $800 billion over 10 years from Medicaid, because states will have to adjust,” said Allison Orris, senior fellow and director of Medicaid policy at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.

The provision in the House proposal that would lead most people to lose Medicaid and therefore become uninsured would be new work requirements that would apply to states that expanded Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act, according to Orris.

The work requirements would affect eligibility for individuals ages 19 to 64 who do not have a qualifying exemption. Affected individuals would need to demonstrate they worked or participated in qualifying activities for at least 80 hours per month.

States would also need to verify that applicants meet requirements for one or more consecutive months prior to coverage, while also conducting redeterminations at least twice per year to ensure individuals who are already covered still comply with the requirements.

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In a Sunday interview with NBC News’ “Meet the Press,” House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., said “4.8 million people will not lose their Medicaid coverage unless they choose to do so,” while arguing the work requirements are not too “cumbersome.”

The Congressional Budget Office has estimated the work requirements would prompt 5.2 million adults to lose federal Medicaid coverage. While some of those may obtain coverage elsewhere, CBO estimates the change would increase the number of people without insurance by 4.8 million.

Those estimates may be understated because they do not include everyone who qualifies but fails to properly report their work hours or submit the appropriate paperwork if they qualify for an exemption, said KFF’s Burns.

Overall, 10.3 million would lose Medicaid, which would lead to 7.8 million people losing health insurance, Burns said.

Proposal creates state Medicaid funding challenges

Protect Our Care supporters display “Hands Off Medicaid” message in front of the White House ahead of President Trump’s address to Congress on March 4 in Washington, D.C. 

Paul Morigi | Getty Images Entertainment | Getty Images

While states have used health care provider taxes to generate funding for Medicaid, the House proposal would put a stop to using those levies in the future, Orris noted.

Consequently, with less revenue and federal support, states will face the tough choice of having to cut coverage or cut other parts of their state budget in order to maintain their Medicaid program, Orris said.

For example, home and community-based services could face cuts to preserve funding for mandatory benefits like inpatient and outpatient hospital care, she said.

The House proposal would also delay until 2035 two Biden-era eligibility rules that were intended to make Medicaid enrollment and renewal easier for people, especially older adults and individuals with disabilities, Burns said.

States would also have their federal matching rate for Medicaid expenditures reduced if they offer coverage to undocumented immigrants, she said.

Affordable Care Act cuts ‘wonky’ but ‘consequential’

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., speaks about the health care impacts of the Republican budget and policy bill, also known as the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” during a June 4 news conference in Washington, D.C.

Saul Loeb | Afp | Getty Images

More than 24 million people have health insurance through the Affordable Care Act marketplaces.  

They’re a “critical” source of coverage for people who don’t have access to health insurance at their jobs, including for the self-employed, low-paid workers and older individuals who don’t yet qualify for Medicare, according to researchers at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, a left-leaning think tank.

The House legislation would “dramatically” reduce ACA enrollment — and, therefore, the number of people with insurance — due to the combined effect of several changes rather than one big proposal, wrote Drew Altman, president and chief executive of KFF, a nonpartisan health policy group.

“Many of the changes are technical and wonky, even if they are consequential,” Altman wrote.

Expiring ACA subsidies add to coverage costs

ACA enrollment is at an all-time high. Enrollment has more than doubled since 2020, which experts largely attribute to enhanced insurance subsidies offered by Democrats in the American Rescue Plan Act in 2021 and then extended through 2025 by the Inflation Reduction Act.

Those subsidies, called “premium tax credits,” effectively reduce consumers’ monthly premiums. (The credits can be claimed at tax time, or households can opt to get them upfront via lower premiums.)

Congress also expanded the eligibility pool for subsidies to more middle-income households, and reduced the maximum annual contribution households make toward premium payments, experts said. 

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The enhanced subsidies lowered households’ premiums by $705 (or 44%) in 2024 — to $888 a year from $1,593, according to KFF.

The House Republican legislation doesn’t extend the enhanced subsidies, meaning they’d expire after this year.

About 4.2 million people will be uninsured in 2034 if the expanded premium tax credit expires, according to the Congressional Budget Office.

“They might just decide not to get [coverage] because they simply can’t afford to insure themselves,” said John Graves, a professor of health policy and medicine at Vanderbilt University School of Medicine. 

Coverage will become more expensive for others who remain in a marketplace plan: The typical family of four with income of $65,000 will pay $2,400 more per year without the enhanced premium tax credit, CBPP estimates.

Adding red tape to eligibility, enrollment

More than 3 million people are expected to lose Affordable Care Act coverage as a result of other provisions in the House legislation, CBO projects.

Other “big” changes include broad adjustments to eligibility, said Kent Smetters, professor of business economics and public policy at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School. 

For example, the bill shortens the annual open enrollment period by about a month, to Dec. 15, instead of Jan. 15 in most states. 

It ends automatic re-enrollment into health insurance — used by more than half of people who renewed coverage in 2025 — by requiring all enrollees to take action to continue their coverage each year, CBPP said.

Senate Majority Leader Sen. John Thune (R-SD) (C) speak alongside Sen. John Barrasso (R-WY) (L) and Sen. Mike Crapo (R-ID) (R) outside the White House on June 4, 2025. The Senators met with President Donald Trump to discuss Trump’s “One, Big, Beautiful Bill” and the issues some members within the Republican Senate have with the legislation and its cost.

Anna Moneymaker | Getty Images News | Getty Images

The bill also bars households from receiving subsidies or cost-sharing reductions until after they verify eligibility details like income, immigration status, health coverage status and place of residence, according to KFF.

Graves says adding administrative red tape to health plans is akin to driving an apple cart down a bumpy road. 

“The bumpier you make the road, the more apples will fall off the cart,” he said. 

Uncapping subsidy repayments

Another biggie: The bill would eliminate repayment caps for premium subsidies. 

Households get federal subsidies by estimating their annual income for the year, which dictates their total premium tax credit. They must repay any excess subsidies during tax season, if their annual income was larger than their initial estimate. 

Current law caps repayment for many households; but the House bill would require all premium tax credit recipients to repay the full amount of any excess, no matter their income, according to KFF.

While such a requirement sounds reasonable, it’s unreasonable and perhaps even “cruel” in practice, said KFF’s Altman.

“Income for low-income people can be volatile, and many Marketplace consumers are in hourly wage jobs, run their own businesses, or stitch together multiple jobs, which makes it challenging, if not impossible, for them to perfectly predict their income for the coming year,” he wrote. 

Curtailing use by immigrants

The House bill also limits marketplace insurance eligibility for some groups of legal immigrants, experts said. 

Starting Jan. 1, 2027, many lawfully present immigrants such as refugees, asylees and people with Temporary Protected Status would be ineligible for subsidized insurance on ACA exchanges, according to KFF.

Additionally, the bill would bar Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals recipients in all states from buying insurance over ACA exchanges.

DACA recipients — a subset of the immigrant population known as “Dreamers” — are currently considered “lawfully present” for purposes of health coverage. That makes them eligible to enroll (and get subsidies and cost-sharing reductions) in 31 states plus the District of Columbia.

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How to review your insurance policy

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PUNTA GORDA – OCTOBER 10: In this aerial view, a person walks through flood waters that inundated a neighborhood after Hurricane Milton came ashore on October 10, 2024, in Punta Gorda, Florida. The storm made landfall as a Category 3 hurricane in the Siesta Key area of Florida, causing damage and flooding throughout Central Florida. (Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

Joe Raedle | Getty Images News | Getty Images

It’s officially hurricane season, and early forecasts indicate it’s poised to be an active one.

Now is the time to take a look at your homeowners insurance policy to ensure you have enough and the right kinds of coverage, experts say — and make any necessary changes if you don’t.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts a 60% chance of “above-normal” Atlantic hurricane activity during this year’s season, which spans from June 1 to November 30.

The agency forecasts 13 to 19 named storms with winds of 39 mph or higher. Six to 10 of those could become hurricanes, including three to five major hurricanes of Category 3, 4, or 5.

You should pay close attention to your insurance policies.

Charles Nyce

risk management and insurance professor at Florida State University

Hurricanes can cost billions of dollars worth of damages. Experts at AccuWeather estimate that last year’s hurricane season cost $500 billion in total property damage and economic loss, making the season “one of the most devastating and expensive ever recorded.”

“Take proactive steps now to make a plan and gather supplies to ensure you’re ready before a storm threatens,” Ken Graham, NOAA’s national weather service director, said in the agency’s report.

Part of your checklist should include reviewing your insurance policies and what coverage you have, according to Charles Nyce, a risk management and insurance professor at Florida State University. 

“Besides being ready physically by having your radio, your batteries, your water … you should pay close attention to your insurance policies,” said Nyce.

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You want to know four key things: the value of property at risk, how much a loss could cost you, whether you’re protected in the event of flooding and if you have enough money set aside in case of emergencies, he said.

Bob Passmore, the department vice president of personal lines at the American Property Casualty Insurance Association, agreed: “It’s really important to review your policy at least annually, and this is a good time to do it.”

Insurers often suspend policy changes and pause issuing new policies when there’s a storm bearing down. So acting now helps ensure you have the right coverage before there’s an urgent need.

Here are three things to consider about your home insurance policy going into hurricane season, according to experts.

1. Review your policy limits

2. Check your deductibles

Take a look at your deductibles, or the amount you have to pay out of pocket upfront if you file a claim, experts say.

For instance, if you have a $1,000 deductible on your policy and submit a claim for $8,000 of storm coverage, your insurer will pay $7,000 toward the cost of repairs, according to a report by NerdWallet. You’re responsible for the remaining $1,000.

A common way to lower your policy premium is by increasing your deductibles, Passmore said. 

Raising your deductible from $1,000 to $2,500 can save you an average 12% on your premium, per NerdWallet’s research.

But if you do that, make sure you have the cash on hand to absorb the cost after a loss, Passmore said.

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Don’t stop at your standard policy deductible. Look over hazard-specific provisions such as a wind deductible, which is likely to kick in for hurricane damage.

Wind deductibles are an out-of-pocket cost that is usually a percentage of the value of your policy, said Nyce. As a result, they can be more expensive than your standard deductible, he said. 

If a homeowner opted for a 2% deductible on a $500,000 house, their out-of-pocket costs for wind damages can go up to $10,000, he said.

“I would be very cautious about picking larger deductibles for wind,” he said.

3. Assess if you need flood insurance

Floods are usually not covered by a homeowners insurance policy. If you haven’t yet, consider buying a separate flood insurance policy through the National Flood Insurance Program by the Federal Emergency Management Agency or through the private market, experts say. 

It can be worth it whether you live in a flood-prone area or not: Flooding causes 90% of disaster damage every year in the U.S., according to FEMA.

In 2024, Hurricane Helene caused massive flooding in mountainous areas like Asheville in Buncombe County, North Carolina. Less than 1% of households there were covered by the NFIP, according to a recent report by the Swiss Re Institute. 

If you decide to get flood insurance with the NFIP, don’t buy it at the last minute, Nyce said. There’s usually a 30-day waiting period before the new policy goes into effect. 

“You can’t just buy it when you think you’re going to need it like 24, 48 or 72 hours before the storm makes landfall,” Nyce said. “Buy it now before the storms start to form.” 

Make sure you understand what’s protected under the policy. The NFIP typically covers up to $250,000 in damages to a residential property and up to $100,000 on the contents, said Loretta Worters, a spokeswoman for the Insurance Information Institute.

If you expect more severe damage to your house, ask an insurance agent about excess flood insurance, Nyce said.

Such flood insurance policies are written by private insurers that cover losses over and above what’s covered by the NFIP, he said.

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