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Are immigrants taking jobs from U.S. workers? Here’s what economists say

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The first debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump is shown on television at the Juventud 2000 migrant shelter in Tijuana, Mexico, on Sept. 10, 2024. Immigration has been a hot topic throughout the presidential campaign.

Carlos Moreno/NurPhoto via Getty Images

The idea that immigration has a negative impact on the U.S. job market is a common theme of former President Donald Trump’s speeches on the presidential campaign trail.

“They’re taking your jobs,” the Republican nominee told supporters on Sept. 21 in Wilmington, North Carolina.

Immigration is also a top issue for Republican voters: 82% of Trump supporters say immigration is “very important” to their vote in the 2024 presidential election, second only to the economy, according to the Pew Research Center. It’s the lowest-priority issue for Democrats, Pew found. Pew polled 9,720 U.S. adults from Aug. 26 through Sept. 2.

However, evidence suggests immigrants help the overall economy. And, at a high level, they aren’t taking jobs from or reducing the wages of U.S.-born (or so-called native) workers, according to economists who study the impact of immigration on the labor market.

“Overall, the consensus is very strong that there are not significant costs to U.S.-born workers from immigration, at least the type of immigration we have historically had in the U.S.,” said Alexander Arnon, director of business tax and economic analysis at the Penn Wharton Budget Model.

Immigrants expected to boost the economy

There are several reasons why immigrants largely benefit the economy and job market, economists said.

For one, the job market isn’t static.

Immigrants take jobs but they also create new ones by spending in local economies and by starting businesses, economists said. One 2020 research paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research found immigrants are 80% more likely to become entrepreneurs than native workers.

A recent “surge” of immigrants to the U.S. is expected to add $8.9 trillion (or 3.2%) to the nation’s GDP over the next decade, according to the Congressional Budget Office, a nonpartisan scorekeeper for Congress.

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“That’s enormous,” said Michael Clemens, a professor at George Mason University and an economist whose research examines the economic causes and effects of migration. “That creates jobs, that raises pay, that is an increase in the size and complexity of the U.S. economy.”

Immigrants also aren’t perfect substitutes for U.S. citizens in many job positions; in fact, the two groups often complement each other rather than compete, economists said.

However, some economic research suggests immigration can impact the wages of certain subgroups of U.S.-born workers, especially those with lower levels of educational attainment.

Overall, the consensus is very strong that there are not significant costs to U.S.-born workers from immigration.

Alexander Arnon

director of business tax and economic analysis at the Penn Wharton Budget Model

Some economists contend an influx of immigrants can reduce wages for such Americans in the short term, though other researchers have found that Americans ultimately benefit, partly because those in direct competition with immigrants are able to find higher-paying jobs.

“Not everybody agrees about it,” Clemens said.

A big supply of new labor due to immigration can be “difficult and anxiety-inducing” for American workers who must adjust, he added.

“But people end up in better circumstances,” he said.

Immigration helped cool ‘overheated’ job market

The El Chaparral pedestrian border crossing at the San Ysidro Port of Entry in Tijuana, Mexico, on Jan. 4, 2024. 

Carlos Moreno/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Immigrants accounted for about 14% of the U.S. population in 2022, according to Pew, citing most recently available federal data.

Most are in the U.S. legally: Undocumented immigrants represented 3.3% of the total U.S. population and 23% of immigrants in 2022, Pew said. Their number has increased in recent years, to 11 million, but remains below its 2007 peak of more than 12 million.

The number of immigrants coming to the U.S. has “increased sharply in recent years,” the CBO wrote in July.

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Net immigration is expected to be 8.7 million people higher from 2021 to 2026 than would have been extrapolated from pre-Covid migration trends, the CBO said. (Its analysis excludes those with green cards.)

The influx has been beneficial for the pandemic-era economy, economists said.

It “helped cool an overheated labor market” over the past two years, Elior Cohen, an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, wrote in May.

Demand for workers hit historic highs as the U.S. economy started to reopen in 2021. Wages rose sharply — at their fastest pace in decades — as businesses competed for workers, putting upward pressure on high inflation.

Immigrant labor alleviated “severe staffing shortages,” especially in industries like leisure and hospitality, helping dilute those inflationary wage pressures, Cohen wrote.

In this sense, immigrants weren’t competing with U.S. citizens for jobs but instead taking a surplus of available jobs, said Giovanni Peri, an economics professor and director of the Global Migration Center at the University of California, Davis.

In fact, a long-term net decline in the number of non-college-educated immigrants to the U.S. from 2010 to 2021 likely contributed to those recent labor shortages, he said.

“If there is a time when low-skilled immigration isn’t competing with natives and helping fill shortages, it’s been the last two years,” Peri said.

‘Little evidence’ of employment impact

Even before the Covid-19 pandemic, economists from varying sides of the debate published a “consensus” viewpoint in 2017 on the job market effect of immigration, Clemens said.

The panel of economists found “little evidence that immigration significantly affects” overall employment levels among Americans, they wrote for the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine.

“I’d say the consensus has gotten [even] stronger” since then, said Arnon of the Penn Wharton Budget Model, who authored a separate 2016 analysis of existing research on immigration’s economic impact.

To the extent there’s job competition from new immigrants, it tends to fall mostly on prior immigrants rather than native U.S. workers, according to the National Academies paper.

Prior immigrants are most likely to experience “negative wage effects,” it said.

However, native-born high school dropouts may experience that effect, as well, since they “share job qualifications similar to the large share of low-skilled [immigrant] workers,” the National Academies paper said.

Immigrants without a high school degree account for the largest share of foreign-born workers, followed by those with graduate or professional degrees, according to the Penn Wharton analysis.

A heated debate on low-skilled workers

A boat arrives in Key West, Florida with Cuban refugees in April 1980 from Mariel Harbor after crossing the Florida Straits.

Tim Chapman | Miami Herald | Getty Images

One influential — and controversial — paper by Harvard economist George Borjas echoes that finding about high school dropouts.

Borjas — who was among the more than three dozen economists who authored the National Academies consensus paper — studied the Mariel boatlift, a mass emigration of 125,000 Cuban refugees to South Florida from April to October 1980.

At least 60% of these “Marielitos” were high school dropouts, he said. Borjas found that the large boost in labor supply caused the wages of high school dropouts in Miami to drop “dramatically,” by 10% to 30%.

Stephen Miller, a senior policy adviser during the Trump administration, cited the paper in 2017 as a justification for a new proposal to curtail legal immigration, particularly among lower-skilled workers.

Asked to comment on Trump’s campaign statements about immigration and jobs, Anna Kelly, a spokeswoman for the Republican National Committee, said in an emailed statement that the former president “has never wavered in his promise to put America First, including workers born in the USA and incentivizing companies to keep jobs at home.”

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Borjas’ finding was in contrast with earlier work by economist and Nobel laureate David Card, who had found the Mariel boatlift didn’t increase unemployment or negatively affect wages of “less-skilled” non-Cuban or Cuban workers.

Some economists, including Clemens, dispute Borjas’ findings. Borjas didn’t return a request for comment.

“Sudden surges of immigration obviously affect the ability of native workers to find and take jobs on a given afternoon,” Clemens said.

But immigrants “also create jobs,” Clemens said. “A large preponderance of evidence is the job creation effect overwhelms the competition effect, even in the short term.”

Effect may depend on the economic environment

Migrant workers pick strawberries during harvest south of San Francisco.

Joe Sohm/Visions Of America | Universal Images Group | Getty Images

Native U.S. workers and immigrants, even those with similar educational backgrounds, tend to complement each other via their skills, making each other more productive and in essence jointly creating each other’s jobs, Clemens said.

For example, in a restaurant, a native worker with better command of spoken English might be a waiter, while an immigrant might do kitchen-prep work or wash dishes, tasks that don’t require such language dexterity. On farms, native workers might be supervisors or run high-tech equipment while immigrants handpick crops, Clemens said.

Research by Peri and Alessandro Caiumi of the University of California, Davis, finds that factors like “occupational upgrading” generally lead native workers who initially compete with immigrants for jobs to earn higher wages in the future.

For example, from 2000 to 2019, such factors helped boost wages for less-educated native workers by a “significant” 1.7% to 2.6%, and there was also “no significant wage effect on college educated natives,” Peri and Caiumi wrote. Similarly, from 2019 to 2022, estimates suggest “small positive effects” on wages.

Ultimately, “what might have happened in Florida during the Mariel boatlift in the 1980s may be different than what happens in Arizona in the 2010s,” said Michael Strain, director of economic policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute, a right-leaning think tank.

“From a policy perspective, you have to figure out which of the studies are most relevant to the current economic environment you’re considering,” Strain said.

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College hopefuls have a new ultimate dream school — it’s not Harvard

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Students on campus at Massachusetts Institute of Technology in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

Education Images | Universal Images Group | Getty Images

Harvard University is no longer the ultimate “dream” school, at least among current college applicants.

This year, Massachusetts Institute of Technology secured the top spot of most desirable colleges, according to a new survey of college-bound students by The Princeton Review.

Harvard fell from No. 1 after a prolonged period of controversy, marked by antisemitism on campus and the resignation of Harvard President Claudine Gay amid allegations of plagiarism.

Despite the reshuffling, there remains a common element at the top of the rankings, according to Robert Franek, The Princeton Review’s editor-in-chief. “Each of the schools are exceptional,” he said.

However, regardless of which institution they attend, for most students, the biggest problem remains how they will pay for their degree.

Cost is a major concern

A whopping 95% of families said financial aid would be necessary to pay for college and 77% said it was “extremely” or “very” necessary, The Princeton Review found. Its 2025 College Hopes and Worries Survey polled more than 9,300 college applicants between Jan. 17 and Feb. 24.

Often, which college those students will choose hinges on the amount of financial aid offered and the breakdown across grants, scholarships, work-study opportunities and student loans.

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MIT is one of the hardest schools to get into, with an acceptance rate of 4.5%. It’s also among the nation’s priciest institutions — tuition and fees, room and board and other student expenses came to more than $85,000 this year.

But MIT also offers generous aid packages for those who qualify. Among the Class of 2024, 87% graduated debt-free, according to the school.

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Top colleges are seeking exceptional students from all different backgrounds, according to James Lewis, co-founder of the National Society of High School Scholars, an academic honor society.

To that end, many institutions will provide scholarships or discounted tuition, in addition to other sources of merit-based aid, he said.

For qualified applicants, “if they can go after those institutions, don’t self-select out,” Lewis said.

The return on investment: a good job

In part due to the high cost of college, students are also putting more emphasis on career placement, according to Christopher Rim, president and CEO of college consulting firm Command Education.

At MIT, for example, 2024 graduates earn a starting salary of $126,438, according to the latest student surveynearly twice the national average. The percentage of MIT graduates employed in the months immediately after graduation has edged lower in recent years, while the share enrolling in graduate school has trended higher.

“Because it’s getting harder to find a job, students are more focused on what they are going to do after college,” he said. “That’s a big thing for them.”

When asked what they consider the greatest benefit of earning a college degree, most students said it was a “potentially better job and income,” The Princeton Review found.

Fewer said it was “exposure to new ideas, places and people.”

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Homebuyers are struggling to make bigger down payments

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Alvarez | E+ | Getty Images

Home prices have been rising, and so have down payments.

The median down payment among homebuyers in December was $63,188, according to a recent report by Redfin. That’s up 7.5%, or about $4,000, from a year prior.

“That is mostly reflecting the fact that home prices have increased,” said Chen Zhao, an economist at Redfin.

On top of high home prices, other issues homebuyers face include high inflation, volatile mortgage rates and limited savings balances.

The typical homebuyer down payment was equal to about 16.3% of the purchase price in December, when the median home-sale price was $428,000, per Redfin data. 

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While homebuyers are putting down more cash for their home purchases, down payments continue to be a major hurdle.

A new report by Bankrate found that 81% of would-be buyers say that down payment and closing costs are obstacles toward owning a home some day. For 52%, the hurdle is “very significant” while for 29% it’s “somewhat significant.”

The survey conducted by YouGov Plc polled 2,703 U.S. adults in mid January.

What to know about low-, no-down-payment loans

There are low- and no-down-payment mortgage options across federal agencies like the Fair Housing Association, the Department of Veteran Affairs and U.S. Department of Agriculture.

The Department of Veterans Affairs offers VA loan programs, and those who qualify can put down as little as 0%. Mortgages from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, referred to as USDA loans, aim to help buyers purchase homes in rural areas and also offer 0% down payment options.

Federal Housing Administration loans, or FHA loans, can require as little as 3.5% down for qualifying borrowers, which include first-time buyers, low- and moderate-income buyers and buyers from minority groups.

You don’t get anything for free.

Melissa Cohn

regional vice president at William Raveis Mortgage

Recently, more people are using mortgage options sponsored by the government. About 15% of mortgaged home sales used an FHA loan in December, up from mid-2022’s decade-low of roughly 10%, Redfin found. The share of those who used a VA loan rose to 6.7%, from 6.2% a year earlier.

The increase could be a sign of buyers having an upper hand in the market, said Redfin’s Zhao. Typically, sellers prefer to avoid FHA loans because they can involve a longer processing time, she said. For this reason, buying with an FHA loan can be less advantageous in a highly competitive housing market.

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While low-down payment mortgages can help someone achieve homeownership, there may be additional costs involved.

With less cash upfront, you will need to borrow more, making your monthly mortgage payment much higher, experts say. And you could also face higher mortgage rates.

“The best priced loans are going to do a larger down payment, so the less you put down, the higher the rate is, the greater the risk,” said Melissa Cohn, regional vice president at William Raveis Mortgage.

With a down payment of less than 20%, you may be subject to private mortgage insurance, or PMI, which is added to the monthly mortgage payment.  

Meanwhile, mortgage lenders tend to offer better loan terms to borrowers who put more cash up front, or make 20% down payments. Benefits can include lower interest rates, reduced fees and favorable repayment terms. While a 20% down payment can be daunting, it’s certainly not a requirement. You can buy a house with much less up front. Here’s what to know.

PMI can cost anywhere from 0.5% to 1.5% of the loan amount per year, depending on factors such as your credit score and your total down payment, according to The Mortgage Reports. For example, on a loan for $300,000, mortgage insurance premiums could cost from $1,500 to $4,500 a year, or $125 to $375 a month, the site found.

“You don’t get anything for free,” said Cohn. 

‘Time isn’t a nemesis’

While you’re building your down payment, look for other programs that can help you get there faster.

Aside from federally backed low-down-payment mortgage options, consider state or local assistance down payment assistance programs, which can offer aid to those who qualify, experts say. Such programs can offer grants and loans to help cover part or all of a homebuyer’s down payment and closing costs, per The Mortgage Reports.

“The good news is the federal government isn’t the only game in town,” Hamrick said. “It’s really about trying to be aware and take advantage of any potential applicable program.”

Browse online through the state agency and see if you meet the qualifications for any assistance programs or grants available in your state or area, Cohn said.

“For people who don’t have the luxury or haven’t been able to save enough, that’s a good option,” she said.

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The levies push limits of presidential authority

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U.S. President Donald Trump addresses the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) annual meeting in National Harbor, Maryland, U.S., February 22, 2025. 

Brian Snyder | Reuters

U.S. importers and their customers are about to experience the full force of President Donald Trump’s unprecedented use of emergency economic powers.

To that point, 25% tariffs on imports from America’s top two trading partners, Canada and Mexico, went into effect at midnight Tuesday, as did an additional 10% tariff on Chinese imports. Canadian energy will be tariffed at a lower rate of 10%, also as of midnight Tuesday.

It’s difficult to overstate how far-reaching the impact of these tariffs will be, or how quickly they will be felt.

U.S. trade with Mexico, Canada and China last year accounted for around 40% of America’s total commerce in goods around the world.

And unlike traditional trade policy, these tariffs are designed to deliver a financial sting right away, trade experts told CNBC.

“From a technical standpoint, the imposition of the tariffs is basically a light switch. They’re on or they’re off,” said Daniel Anthony, the president of Trade Partnership Worldwide, a policy research firm.

Literally overnight, the cost of importing, for example, $100,000 worth of limes from Mexico increased by $25,000 Tuesday. This is money that the importer will need to pay directly to U.S. Customs and Border Protection when the limes cross the border.

Target CEO Brian Cornell told investors Tuesday that shoppers could see produce prices rise within days, the result of tariffs on Mexican fruits and vegetables.

Even if a glitch prevented tariffs from being collected starting at exactly 12:01am Eastern Time Tuesday, they would still be tallied, and importers could expect to receive a tax bill retroactively, said Nicole Bivens Collinson, a Washington trade lobbyist and managing principal at Sandler, Travis & Rosenberg.

“It’s like when you get an Uber bill and you forgot to tip, and add it on later,” she said.

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Along with the two new North American tariff rates, Trump also signed an order Monday doubling his earlier 10% tariff on imports from China, for a total 20% additional tariff rate on the nation.

Taken together, Canada, China and Mexico accounted for $2.2 trillion worth of U.S. overseas trade in 2024, according to federal census data. About $840 billion of that came from trade with Mexico, $762 billion from Canadian imports and exports and $582 billion from China.

Extraordinary power

Container at the Port of Vancouver in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada, on Feb. 28, 2025.

Ethan Cairns/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Part of the reason Trump could do this so quickly is because the White House is invoking a sweeping national security law to justify the new levies.

Until now, the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, IEEPA, had been used mainly to impose emergency sanctions on foreign dictators or suspected terrorist groups.

But the Trump administration argues that the illicit global fentanyl trade and immigrants at the Mexican border both qualify as “unusual and extraordinary” foreign threats to American national security, justifying Trump’s use of emergency powers under IEEPA.

Trump is using the law in a broader way than any president has before, Trade Partnership Worldwide’s Anthony explained.

Trump is also inviting legal challenges, he said, by pushing the boundaries of presidential authority.

How will the Fed react to new U.S. tariffs?

For now, consumers will bear the brunt of the tariffs in higher prices, experts say. The Tax Policy Center estimates that Trump’s Mexico and Canada tariffs alone will cost the average household an additional $930 a year by 2026.

The imposition of massive new tariffs on U.S. imports from Canada, China and Mexico are a sharp reminder of how much power Trump wields over global commerce.

But they also hint at the limitations of this power.

In the case of so-called de-minimis shipments, the Trump administration imposed new levies on millions of shipments entering the United States, before the federal government had the means to actually collect the fees.

The de minimis mess

Oscar Wong | Moment | Getty Images

So-called “de minimis” imports are international shipments valued at $800 or less. Historically, these low-value, person-to-person imports have been exempt from U.S. tariffs.

Several of the world’s biggest e-commerce companies take advantage of the de-minimis loophole by shipping their products directly to consumers from overseas.

Fast fashion sites, like Temu and Shein, ship goods directly from China to American consumers. They have helped fuel an explosion in U.S.-bound de-minimis shipments in recent years.

But collecting tariffs on de-minimis goods is harder than it looks.

“There’s a whole infrastructure system set up for normal shipments that come in to the country,” said Collinson, who previously served as a U.S. trade negotiator. But this system doesn’t exist for de-minimis imports, she added.

Last year alone, the U.S. accepted more than 1.3 billion overseas shipments that qualified for de-minimis tariff exemptions, according to federal data.

To process that many new shipments, the federal government will need to hire more customs agents, experts said.

Nonetheless, in early February Trump announced that the United States would begin collecting tariffs on low-value shipments from overseas.

Trump’s order gave the U.S. Postal Service mere days to implement a system to begin collecting tariffs on millions of small packages every day.

It also sowed chaos throughout the international postal system, culminating on Feb. 4 with an announcement that USPS had suspended all parcel delivery services from China and Hong Kong “until further notice.”

A day later, the postal service reversed course and resumed processing the de-minimis parcels. But it did not collect any tariffs on them.

Soon after, the Trump administration issued an amendment to the China order, formally delaying any effort to collect tariffs on de-minimis imports until “adequate systems are in place to fully and expediently process and collect tariff revenue” on them.

The U.S. Postal Service didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

A month later, the White House put similar de-minimis waivers in place Sunday for Canada and Mexico, ahead of imposing the new 25% tariffs.

It’s unclear when a de-minimis tariff collection system might be up and running.

A U.S. Customs and Border Protection spokeswoman told CNBC, “The dynamic nature of our mission, along with evolving threats and challenges, requires CBP to remain flexible and adapt quickly while ensuring seamless operations and mission resilience.”

But Anthony noted that the delay for China was “open ended.”

“Part of the challenge is [federal] personnel and bandwidth,” he said. Customs and Border Protection may not have the staff or resources available to handle the new volume of shipments and packages, he said.

Officials must also determine how the levy will be assessed and paid, and how customs officials will process tens of millions of new data points furnished by shippers for each individual package, the experts said.

“Anyone can develop a good policy, but whether that policy can actually be effectuated is critical,” Collinson said.

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