Personal Finance
As market experts talk of ‘animal spirits,’ here’s how to invest now
A trader wears a Trump hat as he works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during the opening bell on Nov. 6, 2024.
Timothy A. Clary | Afp | Getty Images
On Nov. 5, the presidential election handed a decisive victory for President-elect Donald Trump. In the days that followed, the markets soared.
A “Trump trade” led to new index highs for the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average, lifted with the help of certain sectors expected to do well under the president-elect’s second term.
As of Monday, the postelection market fervor had started to subside to preelection levels.
Yet, some experts say they are seeing a renewal of so-called animal spirits.
“Animal spirits” is a term first coined by economist John Maynard Keynes and refers to the tendency for human emotion to drive investment gains and losses.
Some experts say animal spirits are a sign of consumer confidence. However, the phenomenon can also be trouble for investors if they take on “excessive risk,” said Brad Klontz, a psychologist and certified financial planner.
“It’s essentially why dead investors outperform living investors, because dead investors are not impacted by their animal spirits,” Klontz said.
Research has shown dead investors’ portfolios tend to outperform, since they are left untouched because they are less likely to be influenced by emotional decisions, such as panic selling or buying.
Investors may be excited or fearful
The recent market runup was not prompted by individual investors chasing the market to a meaningful extent, according to Scott Wren, senior global market strategist at Wells Fargo. Individuals, who were split in their election choices, are also divided in their investment outlook, he said.
“Depending on who your candidate was, you may be excited about the future or fearing the future,” Wren said.
Instead, it has been professional traders and money managers — who couldn’t sit on cash when the S&P 500 index was setting new records every two or three days — who have helped drive the markets higher, he said.
There is also big-picture excitement going into 2025, according to Wren, with expectations for lower taxes, less regulation and reasonable levels of inflation. However, the U.S. economy might have a couple of quarters of slower growth in 2025, he said.
“We’re not going to have a recession,” Wren said. “We think that’s very unlikely.”
‘Nobody is immune’ to investing missteps
Ideally, investors ought to sell stocks when they are priced high and buy when they are low.
But research consistently finds the opposite tends to happen.
Humans are wired to take on a herd mentality and follow the crowd, which guides our decision-making on everything from who we vote for to how we invest, according to Klontz.
“The first thing is to just recognize that nobody is immune from this,” Klontz said.
Now is the perfect time for investors to make sure they have an asset allocation that is appropriate to their personal risk tolerance and financial goals, he said.
“It’s harder to do when the market’s crashed,” Klontz said.
Additionally, it is important to keep in mind that financial advisors, like all humans, are also susceptible to biases. When seeking financial advice, investors should ask questions such as “What would you do as my advisor if the market went down 50%?” Klontz said.
Good advisors should have systems in place to keep them from making big mistakes, Klontz said. They may have an investment committee or a predetermined approach for how they will act.
Importantly, investors should also be asking themselves the same question, Klontz said. For example, if the market drops 40%, are you OK with your portfolio dropping from $100,000 to $60,000?
“If the answer is no, then you probably shouldn’t be all in stocks,” Klontz said.
However, if you are young enough, a big market drop could be an important opportunity to dollar cost average — or invest a fixed amount of money on a regular basis — and position your money for larger gains when it recovers.
“Most people have a real tough time doing that, which is why advisors can help,” provided they are familiar with behavioral tendencies, Klontz said.
Westend61 | Westend61 | Getty Images
Some states have stopped disbursing funds to consumers via Biden-era rebate programs tied to home energy efficiency, due to a Trump administration freeze on federal funding enacted in January.
The Inflation Reduction Act, passed in 2022, had earmarked $8.8 billion of federal funds for consumers through two home energy rebate programs, to be administered by states, territories and the District of Columbia.
Arizona, Colorado, Georgia and Rhode Island — which are in various phases of rollout — have paused or delayed their fledgling programs, citing Trump administration policy.
The White House on Jan. 27 put a freeze on the disbursement of federal funds that conflict with President Trump’s agenda — including initiatives related to green energy and climate change — as a reason for halting the disbursement of rebate funds to consumers.
That fate of that freeze is still up in the air. A federal judge issued an order Tuesday that continued to block the policy, for example. However, it appears agencies had been withholding funding in some cases in defiance of earlier court rulings, according to ProPublica reporting.
In any event, the freeze — or the threat of it — appears to be impacting state rebate programs.
“Coloradans who would receive the Home Energy Rebate savings are still locked out by the Trump administration in the dead of winter,” Ari Rosenblum, a spokesperson for the Colorado Energy Office, said in an e-mailed statement.
The U.S. Department of Energy and the White House didn’t return a request for comment from CNBC on the funding freeze.
In some states, rebates are ‘currently unavailable’
Consumers are eligible for up to $8,000 of Home Efficiency Rebates and up to $14,000 of Home Electrification and Appliance Rebates, per federal law.
The rebates defray the cost of retrofitting homes and upgrading appliances to be more energy efficient. Such tweaks aim to cut consumers’ utility bills while also reducing planet-warming carbon emissions.
California, the District of Columbia, Maine, Michigan, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina and Wisconsin had also launched phases of their rebate programs in recent months, according to data on an archived federal website.
All states and territories (except for South Dakota) had applied for the federal rebate funding and the U.S. Department of Energy had approved funding for each of them.
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The Arizona Governor’s Office of Resiliency said its Home Energy Rebates programs would be paused until federal funds are freed up.
“Due to the current federal Executive Orders, memorandums from the White House Office of Management and Budget, and communications from the U.S. Department of Energy, funding for all Efficiency Arizona programs is currently unavailable,” it said in an announcement Friday.
Rhode Island paused new applications as of Jan. 27 due to “current uncertainty” with Inflation Reduction Act funding and executive orders, according to its Office of Energy Resources.
The Georgia Environmental Finance Authority launched a pilot program for the rebates in fall 2024. That program is ongoing, a spokesperson confirmed Monday.
However, the timeline for a full program launch initially planned for 2025 “is delayed until we receive more information from the U.S. Department of Energy,” the Georgia spokesperson explained in an e-mail.
However, not all states have pressed the pause button: It appears Maine is still moving forward, for example.
“The program remains open to those who are eligible,” Afton Vigue, a spokesperson for the Maine Governor’s Energy Office, said in an e-mail.
The status of rebates in the eight other states and districts to have launched their programs is unclear. Their respective energy departments or governor’s offices didn’t return requests for comment.
‘Signs of an interest’
While the Trump administration on Jan. 29 rescinded its memo ordering a freeze on federal grants and loans — two days after its initial release — the White House said the freeze nonetheless remained in full force.
Democratic attorneys general in 22 states and the District of Columbia filed a lawsuit against the Trump administration, claiming the freeze is unlawful. The White House has claimed it is necessary to ensure spending aligns with Trump’s presidential agenda.
David Terry, president of the National Association of State Energy Officials, said he is optimistic the rebate funding will be released to states soon.
“For these two particular programs, I do not think [the freeze] will stymie the programs,” Terry said. “I see signs of an interest in moving them forward and working with the states to implement them.”
Skynesher | E+ | Getty Images
Lump sum payments to begin arriving in February
In a new update released on Tuesday, the SSA said it will begin issuing retroactive payments in February. Most people will receive the one-time payment by the end of March, according to the agency.
The SSA plans to process the increase to monthly benefits starting in April.
The new timeline “supports President Trump’s priority to implement the Social Security Fairness Act as quickly as possible,” Social Security acting commissioner Lee Dudek said in a statement.
“The agency’s original estimate of taking a year or more now will only apply to complex cases that cannot be processed by automation,” Dudek said. “The American people deserve to get their due benefits as quickly as possible.”
Among those affected include some teachers, firefighters and police officers in certain states; federal employees who are covered by the Civil Service Retirement System and people who worked under foreign social security systems, according to the Social Security Administration.
What affected beneficiaries should know
Retroactive payments, which most people should receive by the end of March, will be deposited directly into bank accounts on file with the Social Security Administration.
All affected beneficiaries should receive a notice by mail from the Social Security Administration with details about their retroactive payment and new benefit amount. Those notices should come two to three weeks after the retroactive payments, according to the agency.
If your direct deposit information or current mailing address are up to date with the agency, no action is needed, according to the agency. If you want to double check the information the agency has on file, you may sign into your personal online account or call the agency.
If you want to ask about the status of your retroactive payment, the Social Security Administration urges you to hold off until April.
Beneficiaries should also wait until after they have received their April monthly check before contacting the agency to ask about their new benefit amount.
The average tax refund is 10.4% lower than last year according to the latest Internal Revenue Service data, and inflation is taking more of those dollars.
Bill Oxford | E+ | Getty Images
The average tax refund this year is down 32.4% compared to last year, according to early filing data from the IRS.
Tax season opened on Jan. 27, and the average refund amount was $2,169 as of Feb. 14, down from $3,207 about one year prior, the IRS reported on Friday. That figure reflects current-year refunds only.
However, the Feb. 14 filing data doesn’t include refunds receiving the earned income tax credit or additional child tax credit, which aren’t issued before mid-February, the IRS noted. The previous year’s filing data included tax returns claiming these credits. The value of these tax breaks can be substantial, even resulting in five-figure refunds, in some cases.
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Typically, you can expect a refund when you overpay taxes throughout the year via paycheck withholdings or quarterly estimated payments. By comparison, there’s generally a tax bill when you haven’t paid enough.
Filing season numbers will ‘even out’
Although the average refund is currently smaller, “historically, filing season numbers even out as more tax returns come in,” according to the agency.
As of Feb. 14, the IRS received roughly 33 million individual tax returns of the more than 140 million it expects before the April 15 deadline.
As of Dec. 27, 2024, the average tax refund for the 2024 season was $3,138, compared to $3,167 in late December 2023.
‘Don’t call the IRS’ for refund updates
The latest filing statistics come amid mass layoffs for the agency as Elon Musk’s so-called Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, continues to cull the federal workforce.
It’s unclear exactly how the staffing reduction could impact future taxpayer service. But experts recommend double-checking returns for accuracy to avoid extra touch points with the agency.
“Don’t call the IRS looking for your refund,” said Tom O’Saben, an enrolled agent and director of tax content and government relations at the National Association of Tax Professionals.
You can check the status of your refund via the agency’s “Where’s My Refund?” tool or the IRS2Go app, which is “available 24 hours a day,” O’Saben said.
Typically, the agency issues refunds within 21 days of a return’s receipt. But some returns require “additional review,” which can extend the timeline, according to the IRS.
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