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As markets absorb tariff news, it’s a wake-up call for investors: experts

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Trump administration tariffs set to begin on February 4th would affect prices and the availability of some products at grocery stores. 

Nick Lachance | Toronto Star | Getty Images

President Donald Trump’s new executive order issuing tariffs on goods entering the U.S. from Canada, China and Mexico sent markets falling early Monday.

By midday, the markets rebounded on news of a one-month pause on Mexico tariffs.

The events are a reminder that two forces drive the markets — underlying fundamentals and sentiment, according to Larry Adam, chief investment officer at Raymond James.

When it comes to fundamentals — the factors that determine a stock’s worth — there’s been no definitive change, Adam said.

But when it comes to sentiment, this may be a wake-up call for investors who came into the year thinking the threat of tariffs was not a realistic risk, he said.

“We’re not changing our forecast,” Adam said, which includes a year-end 6,375 target for the S&P 500. As of Monday afternoon, the index was hovering around 6,000.

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The total revenues companies in the S&P 500 receive from Canada and China and Mexico are fairly small, he said, with 1% coming from both Mexico and Canada, and 7% from China.

“It’s not as big to the S&P 500 as it is to the bigger economy,” Adam said of the tariffs’ effects.

For individual investors who are wondering what, if anything, to do next, “this is where the value of an advisor truly shines,” said Cathy Curtis, a certified financial planner and founder and CEO of Curtis Financial Planning, who is also a member of the CNBC FA Council.

“President Trump has consistently used tariffs as a negotiating tool, and we can expect this pattern to continue,” Curtis said she is telling clients.

Curtis said she’s urging clients to focus on the long-term gains they may see by staying the course, rather than overreact based on short-term headlines.

For individuals, the threat of tariffs has implications for both their investment portfolios and everyday household budgets.

Investors may want to rethink their strategy

Trump: China tariffs will go up if we can't make a deal

It is also important to be mindful of your portfolio’s international exposure, which could be affected by tariffs, said CFP Marguerita Cheng, CEO of Blue Ocean Global Wealth. Cheng is also a member of the CNBC FA Council.

Retirement savers ought to take a look at their target-date funds — investments that automatically adjust to an anticipated retirement date — to make sure they’re not exposed to more international investments than they want, Cheng said.

Current retirees should make sure they have enough money in cash and stable value fund to ensure they can fulfill their required minimum distributions and other immediate needs without having to sell their investments at an inopportune time, she said.

Consumers may feel ‘pain’ from trade war

Consumer prices on everything from produce and liquor to medications and homes may increase with the implementation of tariffs. Consequently, consumer who have faced years of higher prices due to elevated inflation may now want to reassess their household budgets once again.

Meanwhile, Trump on Sunday said Americans could feel “pain” in the trade war.

“I think it’s highly likely that there will be some pain,” said Lee Baker, a CFP and president of Claris Financial Advisors.

To get ahead of those potential cost increases, it helps to evaluate how much you’re spending. Forgoing a vacation, extra items at the grocery store or additional trips in the car can help save money now in the event higher costs hit later, Baker said.  

“A little forethought in planning might help you avoid the sticker shock that could come from your grocery bill or particular items that are being threatened with tariffs,” said CFP Douglas Boneparth, president and founder of Bone Fide Wealth.

Baker and Boneparth are both members of the CNBC FA Council.

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Tenants are flooding the suburbs where they can’t afford to buy

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Aerial view of tract housing neighborhood in Boise, Idaho, USA.

Simonkr | E+ | Getty Images

Renting is taking off in the suburbs as homeownership remains out of reach for many would-be buyers.

Between 2018 and 2023, rentership surged by at least 5 percentage points in 11 out of 20 suburbs surrounding the largest U.S. metro areas, according to a recent analysis by Point2Homes, a rental market research company.

During the same period, 15 suburbs went from being predominantly composed of homeowners to majority-renter communities. The trend spans fast-growing Sun Belt metros like Dallas, Houston and Miami as well as Northeastern cities like Boston and Philadelphia.

In five of those top 20 metro areas — Dallas, Minneapolis, Boston, Tampa and Baltimore — the suburbs are gaining renters faster than the urban centers they surround, Point2Homes found. The share of residents who rent surged in the Dallas suburbs by 17.6% from 2018 to 2023, while that rate rose just 7.9% in the city itself — with the nearby suburbs of Frisco, McKinney and Grand Prairie each gaining over 5,000 renter households apiece during that period.

Back in 2018, it was harder to buy a home in Dallas County, where most of the city sits, than it was in the metro area’s more suburban counties, like those including Frisco, McKinney and Grand Prairie — suburbs where the ranks of renters have swelled faster than virtually anywhere else, Point2Homes found. That’s no longer the case: Homebuying is now more difficult in the suburban counties surrounding Dallas than it is in Dallas County itself, the NBC News Home Buyer Index shows.

Housing affordability is a nationwide problem spanning cities and suburbs alike.

Mortgage costs have risen sharply since the pandemic, pricing out many prospective buyers in all sorts of in-demand areas. Average interest rates on the popular 30-year fixed home loan currently hover just under 7%, levels not seen since before the 2008 financial crisis. In a market this tough, some housing experts say the proliferation of rental properties has helped keep suburban lifestyles accessible to people who otherwise couldn’t afford them.

A “For Rent” sign is placed in front of a home in Arlington, Virginia, U.S., June 8, 2021.

Will Dunham | Reuters

“You have your own land, you have kids or you have a dog, and you want that space,” said N. Edward Coulson, a professor at the University of California, Irvine, and the director of its Center for Real Estate. “They get all that amenity from having a single-family home.”

Mark, a suburbanite just outside Chicago who asked to be identified by his first name to avoid professional blowback for weighing in on hot-button housing issues, said the type of property he has rented for three years is out of budget for him to buy. He estimated many comparable properties in the area would cost 30% more in monthly housing payments than his current rent, and he’s considering leaving the area so he can purchase someplace else.

“If I want to stay here, it’s basically not tenable,” Mark said.

Andrew Decker, a renter in Lake Villa, Illinois, halfway between Chicago and Milwaukee, said he and his family would love to buy the property where they live now, which he said was offered to him for $340,000.

“We would like to make it our forever home if we could afford it, but it’s just so expensive,” Decker said. “If they were to come at me and tell me that, ‘Hey, you can buy this house for 200 grand today,’ I’d pull the trigger tomorrow. I wouldn’t even hesitate. But 340’s crazy.”

Tara Raghuveer, who runs the tenant advocacy group Tenant Union Federation, said affordability issues that have fueled the suburban rental boom threaten to push people farther from urban cores.

“As people are moved out of the city, they’re further from transportation, they might be further from employment, they might be living in homes that are not necessarily connected to other people like them, which impacts things like child care, Social Security,” Raghuveer said.

Landlords, however, tout the benefits that come from renting in the ‘burbs.

“The ability to have one payment that covers all your expenses generally — you don’t have to deal with the mortgage payment and the home insurance and maybe the HOA and then a lot of maintenance expense, so on — has been something that for a lot of people has been worth it,” said George Ratiu, vice president of research at the National Apartment Association trade group, which represents rental operators.

A construction worker helps builds a roof on a residential homes in Irvine, California, U.S., March 28, 2025. 

Mike Blake | Reuters

Developers have also been building different types of properties for suburban tenants, including multifamily complexes. Jay Parsons, a housing economist and host of “The Rent Roll” podcast, points to the rise of “suburban downtowns,” partly fueled by the pandemic-era shift to remote work. These mixed-use developments are typically aimed at offering younger families a balance between urban convenience and suburban amenities, he said.

“You can still be close to your job. You can be close to nice restaurants and shops but live in a suburban area where you’re still using a car, and you still have probably a rent that’s more affordable than living in most downtowns,” Parsons said.

Coulson doesn’t expect the appeal of the suburbs to fade anytime soon, which could prop up prices in many of them for buyers and renters alike.

“If you work downtown, it’s still an advantage to live downtown, but it’s not as great an advantage” as it used to be, he said, now that remote work remains commonplace — despite an ongoing drumbeat of return-to-office mandates. “What that does is also raise the cost of living in the suburbs, because now more people want to live in the suburbs.”

“That’s a dynamic that’s going to have to work itself out a little bit more before we know the final impact on suburban versus downtown pricing,” he said.

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Education Department wanted Treasury to help manage student loans

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The U.S. Department of Education headquarters is seen on March 06, 2025 in Washington, DC. 

Chip Somodevilla | Getty Images News | Getty Images

The U.S. Department of Education planned for the Treasury Department to take a hand in managing the country’s $1.6 trillion student loan portfolio, recent court documents show.

“The Department had been negotiating a memorandum of understanding with the Treasury Department regarding student loan management,” Rachel Oglesby, the chief of staff at the Education Dept., said in a court declaration filed late on Tuesday.

The agreement involved moving nine Education Dept. employees from the agency’s Federal Student Aid Default Collections Unit to Treasury “to discuss collections activities,” a spokesperson for the Education Department told CNBC.

Education Department plans with the Treasury Department are now on hold after U.S. District Judge Myong Joun in Boston blocked the Trump administration on May 22 from its efforts to dismantle the Education Department.

Joun ordered the department to rehire the more than 1,300 employees affected by mass layoffs in March, and blocked the department from transferring student loans to the Small Business Administration.

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Experts say the Treasury talks are more evidence that the Trump administration hopes to reduce the role of the Education Department.

President Donald Trump said on March 21 that the Small Business Administration, instead of the Education Department, would handle the country’s debt.

“They’re all set for it,” the president said of the SBA, speaking to reporters in the Oval Office. “They’re waiting for it.”

Loan transfer to any other agency requires Congress

At the time of Trump’s announcement that student loans would move to the SBA, experts had said the next most logical agency would have been Treasury, since it already plays a role in collecting past-due debts from Americans through the Treasury Offset Program.

Still, financial aid expert Mark Kantrowitz pointed out that The Higher Education Act of 1965 is “very clear” that the Education Department’s Federal Student Aid office is “responsible for student loans.”

“It will require an act of Congress,” Kantrowitz said, to move the loans to either the SBA or Treasury.

Consumer advocates express worries that the mass transfer of accounts to another agency could trigger errors, or compromise borrowers’ privacy. They also raised concerns about how a change in agency might affect unique student loan protections, and programs such as Public Service Loan Forgiveness.

More than 42 million Americans hold federal student loans.

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Social Security cost-of-living adjustment may be 2.5% in 2026: estimates

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Sdi Productions | E+ | Getty Images

Millions of Social Security beneficiaries received a 2.5% boost to their benefits in 2025, thanks to an annual cost-of-living adjustment that went into effect in January.

In 2026, Social Security checks may go up by the same amount — 2.5% — based on the latest government inflation data, according to new estimates from both The Senior Citizens League and Mary Johnson, an independent Social Security and Medicare policy analyst.

That is up from the 2.4% increase for 2026 that those sources forecast last month. A 2.5% cost-of-living adjustment would be “about average,” according to Johnson.

The Social Security cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA, is an annual adjustment to benefits aimed at helping to ensure monthly checks keep pace with inflation.

The COLA for the following year is calculated based on third quarter inflation data. The official change is typically announced by the Social Security Administration in October.

With four more months of data yet to come before that calculation, the new estimate for the Social Security COLA for 2026 is subject to change.

The COLA may go higher if President Donald Trump’s tariff policies prompt inflation and consumer prices move higher, according to Johnson.

Broadly, the consumer price index rose less than had been expected in May, with an annual inflation rate of 2.4%, showing limited impact from Trump’s tariff policies.

Some economists question the quality of U.S. inflation data: WSJ

The measure used to calculate the Social Security COLA — the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, or CPI-W — is up 2.2% over the past 12 months, according to the May data.

While that inflation rate is lower than the 2.5% COLA for 2025, a Senior Citizens League survey finds 80% of seniors feel inflation in 2024 was more than 3% based on their expenses.

As the Trump administration has reduced the size of the federal work force, that has also led to changes in the way the Bureau of Labor Statistics assesses inflation. The government agency has restricted data collection and turned to models that help fill in incomplete data.

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The Senior Citizens League has raised concerns that those changes may negatively influence the accuracy of the annual Social Security COLA calculations.

“Inaccurate or unreliable data in the CPI dramatically increases the likelihood that seniors receive a COLA that’s lower than actual inflation, which can cost seniors thousands of dollars over the course of their retirement,” Shannon Benton, executive director at The Senior Citizens League, said in a statement.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics did not immediately respond to CNBC’s request for comment.

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