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BlackRock predicts another historic year for crypto

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5 months ago

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Maturity or insecurity? Spot Bitcoin ETFs head into year 2

Bitcoin should rip higher under President-elect Donald Trump, according to BlackRock’s ETF chief.

Samara Cohen, the firm’s ETF and index instruments chief investment officer, thinks cryptocurrency deregulation will “absolutely” propel bitcoin to another historic year.

“There will be progress made on… FIT21 [“Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act.] There will be progress made on stable coins. There will be progress made just on definitions in taxonomy,” she told CNBC’s “ETF Edge” this week.

Cohen is behind the firm’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) – which is up 114% since its January 2024 debut and up almost 8% year to date. It comes as bitcoin briefly traded above $100,000 this week.

Despite the strong performance, she suggests cryptocurrency investors need an iron stomach.

“Bitcoin is a risky asset. So, 15% in the context of Bitcoin is not an enormous move. Investors should expect volatility,” said Cohen. “But in the long term, the price of bitcoin is really going to be determined by the level and pace of adoption.”

On Monday, BlackRock announced the official launch of its iShares Bitcoin ETF on CBOE Canada.

And, it’s not the only firm making an early year push deeper into cryptocurrency. Calamos Investments plans to launch its Bitcoin Structured Alt Protection ETF next Wednesday – two days after Trump’s inauguration. According to the press release, it’s the “world’s first 100% downside protected bitcoin ETF.”

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Swiss government proposes tough new capital rules in major blow to UBS

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June 6, 2025

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A sign in German that reads “part of the UBS group” in Basel on May 5, 2025.

Fabrice Coffrini | AFP | Getty Images

The Swiss government on Friday proposed strict new capital rules that would require banking giant UBS to hold an additional $26 billion in core capital, following its 2023 takeover of stricken rival Credit Suisse.

The measures would also mean that UBS will need to fully capitalize its foreign units and carry out fewer share buybacks.

“The rise in the going-concern requirement needs to be met with up to USD 26 billion of CET1 capital, to allow the AT1 bond holdings to be reduced by around USD 8 billion,” the government said in a Friday statement, referring to UBS’ holding of Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bonds.

The Swiss National Bank said it supported the measures from the government as they will “significantly strengthen” UBS’ resilience.

“As well as reducing the likelihood of a large systemically important bank such as UBS getting into financial distress, this measure also increases a bank’s room for manoeuvre to stabilise itself in a crisis through its own efforts. This makes it less likely that UBS has to be bailed out by the government in the event of a crisis,” SNB said in a Friday statement.

‘Too big to fail’

UBS has been battling the specter of tighter capital rules since acquiring the country’s second-largest bank at a cut-price following years of strategic errors, mismanagement and scandals at Credit Suisse.

The shock demise of the banking giant also brought Swiss financial regulator FINMA under fire for its perceived scarce supervision of the bank and the ultimate timing of its intervention.

Swiss regulators argue that UBS must have stronger capital requirements to safeguard the national economy and financial system, given the bank’s balance topped $1.7 trillion in 2023, roughly double the projected Swiss economic output of last year. UBS insists it is not “too big to fail” and that the additional capital requirements — set to drain its cash liquidity — will impact the bank’s competitiveness.

At the heart of the standoff are pressing concerns over UBS’ ability to buffer any prospective losses at its foreign units, where it has, until now, had the duty to back 60% of capital with capital at the parent bank.

Higher capital requirements can whittle down a bank’s balance sheet and credit supply by bolstering a lender’s funding costs and choking off their willingness to lend — as well as waning their appetite for risk. For shareholders, of note will be the potential impact on discretionary funds available for distribution, including dividends, share buybacks and bonus payments.

“While winding down Credit Suisse’s legacy businesses should free up capital and reduce costs for UBS, much of these gains could be absorbed by stricter regulatory demands,” Johann Scholtz, senior equity analyst at Morningstar, said in a note preceding the FINMA announcement. 

“Such measures may place UBS’s capital requirements well above those faced by rivals in the United States, putting pressure on returns and reducing prospects for narrowing its long-term valuation gap. Even its long-standing premium rating relative to the European banking sector has recently evaporated.”

The prospect of stringent Swiss capital rules and UBS’ extensive U.S. presence through its core global wealth management division comes as White House trade tariffs already weigh on the bank’s fortunes. In a dramatic twist, the bank lost its crown as continental Europe’s most valuable lender by market capitalization to Spanish giant Santander in mid-April.

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