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Canada, Mexico hit back at Trump tariffs, China vows action

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Canada and Mexico vowed to hit back at the U.S. after President Donald Trump followed through on threats to impose 25% tariffs on imports of their goods, instigating a trade war that’s set to reshape global supply chains.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said the country will impose 25% tariffs against C$155 billion ($106 billion) of U.S. goods, while Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum also pledged retaliation. China vowed “corresponding countermeasures” to Trump’s 10% levy on Chinese products, without immediately announcing any new tariffs.

A tit-for-tat tariff fight among the world’s major economies — Trump has warned Europe that it’s in his crosshairs, too — adds fresh headwinds to the outlook for global growth, for profits of companies suddenly facing higher import taxes and for financial markets adjusting to new trade flows. 

“It marks a new phase of the trade war, which targets multiple countries, including allies and China, to meet US economic and geopolitical policy goals,” said Gary Ng, senior economist at Natixis SA.

Bloomberg Economics estimated that Trump’s move will raise the average U.S. tariff rate to 10.7% from near 3% currently and “deal a significant supply shock” to the domestic economy. U.S. gross domestic product would suffer a 1.2% hit and a widely watched gauge of core inflation would increase by 0.7%.

Emergency declared

In an executive order posted on the White House website, Trump invoked the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, a 1970s-era law that grants the president broad tariff authority in national emergencies. He had threatened Mexico with this measure in 2019 but talks ultimately ended that dispute without Trump using it. 

The responses from three of America’s biggest trading partners came shortly after he signed orders for the U.S. tariffs on Saturday. The measures take effect at 12:01 a.m. on Tuesday, leaving only a small window for last-minute negotiations.

The risk of a trade war has helped fuel a rally in the dollar since Trump’s re-election on the assumption tariffs would fuel inflation and thus support U.S. interest rates, as well as the greenback’s safe-haven status. 

Trump’s threats last week drove the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index up nearly 1%, its steepest climb since mid-November. The Mexican peso and the Canadian dollar each slumped.

WTO case

China’s Commerce Ministry pledged to file legal proceedings to the World Trade Organization in a Sunday statement, but stopped short of explicitly threatening counter-tariffs. President Xi Jinping’s government has in recent months been treading carefully with Washington, avoiding any retaliation to trade curbs that could escalate tensions.

Trump’s tariffs deliver on a warning to the three countries for what he says is a failure to prevent the flow of undocumented migrants and illegal drugs, though he had also teased the possibility of a reprieve if Mexico and Canada took steps to address his concerns. 

The Republican’s orders also included retaliation clauses that would increase US tariffs if the countries respond in kind. The new measures will be on top of existing trade levies on those countries. 

Energy imports from Canada, including oil and electricity, will be spared from the full 25% levy and will face a 10% tariff. White House officials said that was intended to minimize upward pressure on gasoline and home-heating oil prices.

Trump’s move is explosive in scale and goes well beyond his first-term tariffs. Steep tariffs will raise the cost of key goods like food, housing and gasoline for Americans, while the overall fallout threatens to spill widely across the countries, which are the largest three sources of U.S. imports, accounting for almost half of total volume.

“We’d expect big tariffs to have big impacts — and what Trump has just announced is huge,” wrote Nicole Gorton-Caratelli, Maeva Cousin and Tom Orlik of Bloomberg Economics.

Trump campaigned on a platform of extensive tariffs and he followed through, though dialing back planned measures on China while increasing them on his neighbors. Most mainstream economists and many business groups warn that trade levies will disrupt supply chains, raise prices for consumers already wary of inflation and reduce global trade flows.

Sweeping measures

The move represents yet another instance where Trump is testing the bounds of his emergency authorities under federal law — already a hallmark of his second term in the White House. 

The tariff orders invoke the International Emergency Economic Powers Act and expand an earlier declaration to address what he calls a “threat to the safety and security of Americans.” 

Markets have been gripped by uncertainty as they awaited Trump’s decision on the tariffs, and there are now looming questions about how the levies will impact stocks, as well as companies and consumers.

Automakers such as General Motors Co., Ford Motor Co. and Stellantis NV, which have global supply chains and massive exposure to Mexico and Canada, could see significant swings. Industry groups warned that because of the tight integration of U.S. and Canadian manufacturing, the imminent tariffs could have a steep impact on the industry. 

“The imposition of tariffs will be detrimental to American jobs, investment and consumers,” Jennifer Safavian, the president of Autos Drive America, said in an emailed statement. “U.S. automakers would be better served by policies that reduce barriers for manufacturers, ease regulations that hinder production and create greater export opportunities.”

Trump’s actions also closed a loophole that exempted packages worth less than $800 from tariffs. Extinguishing the so-called de minimis exemption for small parcels sent to the U.S. from the three countries could significantly impact online retail — though the scope of the measure wasn’t immediately clear. While such changes would most directly affect Chinese retailers, American consumers who benefit from those platforms’ cheap goods would likely suffer, too.

The U.S. loses a tremendous amount of tariff revenue by using the exemption, a U.S. official told reporters on a briefing call.

Parts of the U.S., including the Pacific Northwest and Northeast U.S., are deeply reliant on electricity or gas flows from Canada. Under an energy emergency Trump declared on his first day in office, refined gasoline and diesel, uranium, coal, biofuels and critical minerals were all given the lower 10% tariff. 

Oil industry advocates, however, have warned against even a 10% increase in the cost of crude inputs into Midwestern refineries that have few near-term options to substitute with U.S. supplies. 

Democrats wasted no time in pouncing on messaging around how the trade moves could impact families’ budgets. “These tariffs will be devastating for American consumers,” Congressman Greg Stanton, an Arizona Democrat, and some 40 colleagues wrote in a Saturday letter.

“Trump’s tariffs on Mexico and Canada will make your life more expensive,” Stanton said more bluntly in a separate post on X. 

Retaliatory steps

Mexico was strident in rejecting the Trump administration’s allegation that it had alliances with drug traffickers, and suggested the U.S. government curb demand and use of narcotics internally. 

“Drug use and distribution is in your country and that is a public health problem that you have not addressed,” Mexican President Sheinbaum said in a post on X. “It is not by imposing tariffs that problems are resolved, but by talking.”

Mexico will also implement non-tariff measures, while calling for cooperation with the U.S. on topics including security and addressing the fentanyl public health crisis, she said.

The Mexican economy could enter a “severe recession” if Trump’s tariffs remain in place for more than a quarter, according to Gabriela Siller, director of economic analysis at Grupo Financiero Base. “If the tariffs last several months, the Mexican peso depreciation could reach record highs.”

Canada’s Trudeau said American beer, wine, food and appliances will be among the many items subject to Canadian tariffs, and his country is also considering measures related to critical minerals. He encouraged Canadians to buy locally made products and skip U.S. vacations.

The orders enacting the tariffs do create a process to remove them. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem can inform Trump if the countries have taken adequate steps to alleviate concerns over migration and drugs, and the tariffs are removed if he agrees.

It’s not clear how realistic a prospect that is. Canada, for instance, already took steps to tighten its border to appease Trump, and it didn’t deter him.

In a speech Saturday night, Trudeau invoked Canada’s long history of partnership with the U.S. “We have fought and died alongside you,” he said, citing World War II, the Korean War and the recent war in Afghanistan.

Beginning of talks

“Together, we’ve built the most successful economic, military and security partnership the world has ever seen,” Trudeau said, urging Trump to partner with Canada on their shared challenges.

Although the European Union wasn’t among the targets of Trump’s executive actions on trade over the weekend, he’s often complained about what he sees as unfair treatment of American exports such as cars sold in Europe.

On Sunday, German Finance Minister Joerg Kukies cautioned against over-reacting.

“One should not react in panic to the first decision, but rather see it as the beginning of negotiations, not the end,” Kukies told German business representatives in Riyadh at the start of a trip aimed at improving trade ties in the Middle East.

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White House establishes Strategic Bitcoin Reserve

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The White House today issued an executive order formally creating a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve as well as a U.S. Digital Asset Stockpile. 

The reserve will treat bitcoin, the first and most popular blockchain-based cryptocurrency, as a reserve asset. It will be capitalized with tokens owned by the Department of Treasury that was forfeited as part of criminal or civil asset forfeiture proceedings. Other agencies, such as the FBI, will evaluate their legal authority to transfer any bitcoin owned by those agencies to the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. The administration said that the U.S. will not actually sell these bitcoins, as they would act as a store of reserve assets. The executive order authorizes the Secretaries of Treasury and Commerce to develop budget-neutral strategies for acquiring additional bitcoin, provided that those strategies impose no incremental costs on American taxpayers.

The U.S. Digital Asset Stockpile, meanwhile, will consist of digital assets other than bitcoin owned by the Department of Treasury that was forfeited in criminal or civil asset forfeiture proceedings. Versus the bitcoin reserve, the government will not acquire additional assets for the U.S. Digital Asset Stockpile beyond those obtained through forfeiture proceedings. Also unlike the bitcoin reserve, the Secretary of the Treasury may determine strategies for responsible stewardship, including potential sales from the U.S. Digital Asset Stockpile.

The executive order also says that agencies must provide a full accounting of their digital asset holdings to the Secretary of the Treasury and the President’s Working Group on Digital Asset Markets.

The administration justified the decision by saying that, with a fixed supply of 21 million coins, there is a strategic advantage to being among the first nations to create a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, though it did not elaborate. It also said that the government currently holds a significant amount of bitcoin but has not maximized its strategic position as a unique store of value in the global financial system. It decried $17 billion worth of what it called “premature” sales of bitcoin. It also pointed out that there has not been a centralized policy for managing digital asset reserves held by the government, so right now holdings are scattered throughout different departments. 

“Taking affirmative steps to centralize ownership, control, and management of these assets within the Federal government will ensure proper oversight, accurate tracking, and a cohesive approach to managing the government’s cryptocurrency holdings. This move harnesses the power of digital assets for national prosperity, rather than letting them languish in limbo,” said the executive order. 

Dr. Sean Stein Smith, a Lehman College accounting professor who is also chair of the Accounting Working Group in the Wall Street Blockchain Alliance, said that while the executive order only sets up a framework for now, there will be significant implications further down the road. One possibility is an increased emphasis on crypto audits, as David Sack, AI and Crypto Czar, stated multiple times that one of the first pieces of business to move the E.O. forward would be to conduct on audit of current U.S. holdings. With buy-in from the Executive branch, and the emphasis on the importance of crypto audits, said Smith, the profession has an opportunity to expand efforts to standardize the currently disparate crypto audit practices.

Another impact will be client FOMO, as people may reason “after all if it is good enough for the U.S. government it should be good enough for me?” It will be especially important for accountants to educate clients about the risk and opportunities of crypto investments as well as to provide advisory services to those clients interested in integrating crypto into operations.

“In short the E.O. establishing an SBR and digital asset stockpile are set to further propel interest in crypto investments and utilization at clients of all sizes. The emphasis on high quality crypto audits, internal control and advisory opportunities as more investors (retail and institutional) potentially move into the sector, and the inevitable tax issues that will arise as a result all present opportunities for the profession,” said Smith in an email.

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As AI rises in importance, so too does governance

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AI governance was a major theme of 2024, and as the technology continues to evolve, oversight and control—as well as ways to demonstrate it to others—will become even more important this year. 

This was the assessment of Danny Manimbo, a principal with Top 50 firm Schellman, who is primarily responsible for leading the firm’s AI and ISO practices. Speaking during the firm’s Schellmancon event today, he said that last year saw the release of a number of AI governance frameworks, including the National Institute of Standards and Technology’s AI Risk Management Framework, the International Standards Organization’s ISO 42001, and Microsoft’s revisions to its Supplier Security and Privacy Assurance Program to account for AI. Meanwhile, actual regulation is also gaining momentum, with Manimbo pointing to the EU’s AI Act, South Korea’s AI Basic Act, and a number of state-level regulations such as California’s recent AI laws. 

“That kind of set the tone for a lot of the inquiries and the interest that we saw, and for the trends on where GRC was going in 2024, maybe not so much immediately in the beginning of the year, because the frameworks were so new, but I think they were boosted by a number of things in the regulatory standpoint,” said Manimbo. 

The other panelist, Lisa Hall, chief information security officer for the trust platform SafeBase, added that, given the pace of AI advances, it is likely that last year’s measures were not the end but just the beginning, especially considering how widely used even the current generation of solutions is. 

“I think it’s only going to increase, and everyone seems to have some type of AI offering,” said Hall. “Regulations and standards will likely become more demanding, and even with the shadow IT capabilities we have now, I worry that we may be underestimating how often AI technologies are actually used by our employees. And also, on the flip side, how can we best leverage these to make our lives easier?”

Manimbo noted that, with this rise in control frameworks and regulation, this year will also see a rise in demand for ways to demonstrate that one is aligned and compliant with them. The ISO 42001 certification, for which Schellman recently became the first ANSI-accredited body allowed to audit and grant certification for compliance with the standard, is one example, but he anticipated other avenues will open this year. “For example, I sit on the [Cloud Security Alliance] AI Control Framework [board], and they are launching a program scheduled for the second half of this year which is going to be very similar to their [Security Trust Assurance and Risk] program for cloud security but specific to AI risk. That’ll be another avenue,” he said. He added that other standard setters, like the AICPA, might also decide to update their frameworks to account for AI risk. 

Such demonstrations are vital for establishing customer trust in a world that is increasingly connected. Hall noted that supply chains have grown much more complex, which has allowed attackers new opportunities to target vendors or third party software providers and compromise multiple downstream organizations at once. In such an environment, establishing trust with a customer is vital, but it can often involve lengthy and tedious audits filled with manual processes. While she has had success with some automation, such as using AI to reduce time on customer questionnaires and automate access controls, there remain many things that still need human intervention. 

“I’ve definitely struggled with that, like where an auditor is asking for data sets, you’re coming back with a sample set, you’re bouncing back and forth from a tool to gather evidence, and it becomes even more complex when you’re dealing with customer audits and you’re talking to more than one auditor, and you can only reuse evidence for so long that evidence goes stale,” she said. “And then a lot of times, auditors have competing platforms and tools that may not integrate with yours. So it’s still a manual process. There’s a ton of back and forth communication there. I’m still copying and pasting, I’m still downloading from here and uploading to here. So I’d love to see this process improve,”  

Manimbo noted AI has also been helping processes like this, noting that AI can itself help bolster an organization’s controls through automating routine processes and reducing dependence on manual processes. 

“On this front, some of the things that have plagued us in the past is the amount of context that we need as professionals to know if something is something that needs to be addressed immediately as part of a control failure that may be detected. And I think AI will help provide that context there… It may not necessarily be [about] what the controls may be, but how efficient are the models in augmenting existing automation to find those failures in a way that we can effectively address those findings in a way that we can again improve on those and so hopefully reducing additional burden on a team members,” he said. 

However, with all these different frameworks coming out, and with current ones being revised to account for AI, professionals may be challenged in keeping up with all the changes. Professionals need to not only know how to apply these frameworks but also how to scale them as time goes on. Hall said that, by maintaining a security-focused mindset and being proactive, so that the organization is more able to respond to change. 

“If we build and buy with security in mind and find ways to leverage automation and AI to enable us to quickly adjust, … we’re just going to be way better off,” said Hall.  “Instead of looking at ‘here’s the strict regulation, here’s what I have to do,’ [it is] kind of this afterthought, by being more proactive and just having these things in mind. .. I think it’s about us having that mindset of: How is the security built in? How can I be accountable and prove that I’m doing what I’m doing? And think about that before the auditors show up and before the regulations show up.”

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AICPA in discussions with IRS over tax season jitters

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The American Institute of CPAs is monitoring the situation at the Internal Revenue Service amid reports of layoffs of up to half the staff, keeping in touch with IRS officials about maintaining services during the critical tax season.

“In recent weeks, there has been a flood of information regarding the current state of the IRS, some of which has resulted in conflicting reports, creating confusion,” said AICPA president and CEO Mark Koziel in a statement Friday. “The AICPA is having active discussions with IRS officials to clarify this information and we are actively monitoring developments as the IRS continues to assess the immediate and long-term implications. With the volatility of the present environment and rapidly changing events, it is important to reconcile fact from fiction for taxpayers and their advisors. Despite inconsistent reports, we know that the IRS is making every effort to maintain this tax season’s service levels comparable with that of recent years.”

He stressed the importance of the IRS maintaining service during tax season.

“The ability of the IRS to maintain service levels for taxpayers and their preparers is critically important to the AICPA,” Koziel added. “IRS services in combination with modernization efforts, which include technology advancements, have been the bedrock of AICPA’s recommendations for many years. A modern, functioning IRS is essential for Americans to meet their tax obligations and to our country’s financial health.”

The AICPA is also offering recommendations to the embattled agency. “The AICPA continues to provide recommendations to the IRS that will offer some level of relief as we work diligently to understand the impacts to services offered to taxpayers and their practitioners,” said Koziel. “We offer our voice and support to minimize public confusion about current IRS operations.”

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