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CEOs think the U.S. is ‘probably in a recession right now,’ says BlackRock’s Larry Fink

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Larry Fink, chief executive officer of BlackRock Inc., speaks during the 2025 National Retirement Summit in Washington, DC, US, on Wednesday, March 12, 2025.

Al Drago | Bloomberg | Getty Images

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said Monday that many business leaders believe the United States economy is already in a significant downturn.

“Most CEOs I talk to would say we are probably in a recession right now,” Fink said at an event for the Economic Club of New York.

“One CEO specifically said the airline industry is a proverbial bird in a coal mine — canary in the coal mine — and I was told that the canary is sick already,” Fink added.

The asset management executive also said that the he thinks the tariff policies of President Donald Trump could put upward pressure on inflation and make it difficult for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, as the central bank often does during recessions.

“This notion that the Federal Reserve is going to ease four times this year, I see zero chance of that. I’m much more worried that we could have elevated inflation that’s going to bring rates up much higher than they are today,” Fink said.

Pricing in the Fed funds futures market currently suggests that traders expect the central bank to lower its benchmark interest rate by at least 1 percentage point by the end of the year, according to the CME FedWatch tool, which could be four cuts of 0.25 percentage points.

BlackRock as a firm held more than $11 trillion in assets as of the end of 2024, spread across public and private investments.

Fink’s comments were broadcast on Bloomberg Television.

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Economics

America’s left protests against Donald Trump

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SOME CALIFORNIANS spent much of the weekend stuck in traffic on the way to Coachella, a music festival in the desert. But near City Hall in downtown Los Angeles on April 12th, a very different kind of concert unfolded. Bernie Sanders, a senator for Vermont and two-time Democratic presidential candidate, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a congresswoman for New York, headlined a “Fighting Oligarchy” rally, which seemed suspended somewhere between 1968 and 2025. A grey-haired Joan Baez told the crowd that she “ain’t gonna let those lousy billionaires turn me around”. Neil Young urged everyone to “take America back!” When they weren’t booing President Donald Trump or Elon Musk, attendees swayed to Maggie Rogers, a singer who best summed up the event. “Welcome to Berniechella,” she told the crowd of 36,000.

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Economics

Checks and Balance newsletter: Can anyone predict Trump’s next move?

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Checks and Balance newsletter: Can anyone predict Trump’s next move?

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Economics

Consumer sentiment tumbles in April as inflation fears spike, University of Michigan survey shows

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People shop in Bayonne, New Jersey on April 8, 2025. 

Charly Triballeau | Afp | Getty Images

Consumer sentiment grew even worse than expected in April as the expected inflation level hit its highest since 1981, a closely watched University of Michigan survey showed Friday.

The survey’s mid-month reading on consumer sentiment fell to 50.8, down from 57.0 in March and below the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 54.6. The move represented a 10.9% monthly change and was 34.2% lower than a year ago.

As sentiment moved lower, inflation worries surged.

Respondents’ expectation for inflation a year from now leaped to 6.7%, the highest level since November 1981 and up from 5% in March. At the five-year horizon, the expectation climbed to 4.4%, a 0.3 percentage point increase from March and the highest since June 1991.

Other measures in the survey also showed deterioration.

The current economic conditions index fell to 56.5, an 11.4% drop from March, while the expectations measure slipped to 47.2, a 10.3% fall. On an annual basis, the two measures dropped 28.5% and 37.9% respectively.

Sentiment declines came across all demographics, including age, income and political affiliation, according to Joanne Hsu, the survey director.

“Consumers report multiple warning signs that raise the risk of recession: expectations for business conditions, personal finances, incomes, inflation, and labor markets all continued to deteriorate this month,” Hsu said.

In addition to the other readings, the survey showed unemployment fears rising to their highest since 2009.

The survey comes amid concerns that President Donald Trump’s tariffs will raise inflation and slow growth, with some prominent Wall Street executives and economists expecting the U.S. could teeter on recession over the next year.

To be sure, the survey’s readings are generally counter to market-based expectations, which indicate little fear of inflation ahead. However, Federal Reserve officials in recent days say they fear that consumer expectations can quickly become reality if behavior changes. Consumer and producer inflation readings this week showed price pressures easing in March.

Also, the University of Michigan survey included responses between March 25 and April 8, the end period coming the day before Trump announced a 90-day stay on aggressive tariffs against dozens of U.S. trading partners.

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Join interactive Pro clinics led by our Pros Carter Worth, Dan Niles, and Dan Ives, with a special edition of Pro Talks with Tom Lee. You’ll also get the opportunity to network with CNBC experts, talent and other Pro subscribers during an exciting cocktail hour on the legendary trading floor. Tickets are limited!

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