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Checks and Balance newsletter: Trump’s erstwhile allies

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This is the introduction to Checks and Balance, a weekly, subscriber-only newsletter bringing exclusive insight from our correspondents in America.

James Bennet, our Lexington columnist, considers the former allies of Donald Trump and their refusal to endorse him

Bill Clinton had his share of scandals, as I wrote in Lexington this week, but he was an effective and popular president, and he left office with an approval rating of 66%, according to Gallup. Barack Obama also left on a high note, at 59%. When the two former presidents appeared with President Joe Biden in New York on March 28th, they were plumping for money for his campaign, but they nevertheless presented a dignified tableau of mutual respect and affection, solidarity and continuity. 

What a contrast with Donald Trump. The only other living former Republican president, George W. Bush, has never even endorsed him, let alone embraced him in public. Mr Trump makes a virtue of that, of course. His politics are grounded in the idea he is breaking with everything that came before. 

What’s weird, though, is that the discontinuity increasingly applies to his own term in office. His own vice-president, Mike Pence, said in mid-March he will not endorse his former boss—not a huge surprise, since Mr Pence has accused Mr Trump of putting himself “over the constitution”, and yet it is still a shocking repudiation, one without obvious precedent at that level of American politics. It puts Mr Pence on a list of officials who served Mr Trump but have since broken with him that includes an attorney-general (Bill Barr), two defence secretaries (Jim Mattis and Mark Esper), two national security advisers (John Bolton and H.R. McMaster), two chiefs of staff (John Kelly and Mick Mulvaney), a chairman of the joint chiefs of staff (Mark Milley), a secretary of the Navy (Richard Spencer), a secretary of state (Rex Tillerson), a secretary of education (Betsy DeVos), and a secretary of transportation (Elaine Chao), among others. 

Maybe some of these people will have a change of heart, though that doesn’t seem probable. (Those Republicans, such as Senator Lindsey Graham, who repudiate their repudiations of Mr Trump tend to still have political ambitions. For that reason Nikki Haley, who was Mr Trump’s most formidable opponent for the Republican nomination, may come around, though she appears to be resisting so far.) Mr Kelly has called Mr Trump “a person with nothing but contempt for our democratic institutions, our constitution, and our rule of law”. Mr Esper has said “his actions are all about him and not about the country.” Mr Bolton has said he thought foreign leaders saw Mr Trump as “a laughing fool”. 

It seems to defy not just conventional politics but even common sense that such condemnation and contempt from formidable people who worked closely with Mr Trump does not matter much. At least not so far.

Economics

Euro zone inflation, March 2025

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A man pushes his shopping cart filled with food shopping and walks in front of an aisle of canned vegetables with “Down price” labels in an Auchan supermarket in Guilherand Granges, France, March 8, 2025.

Nicolas Guyonnet | Afp | Getty Images

Annual Euro zone inflation dipped as expected to 2.2% in March, according to flash data from statistics agency Eurostat published Tuesday.

The Tuesday print sits just below the 2.3% final reading of February.

So called core-inflation, which excludes more volatile food, energy, alcohol and tobacco prices, edged lower to 2.4% in March from 2.6% in February. The closely watched services inflation print, which had long been sticky around the 4% mark, also fell to 3.4% in March from 3.7% in the preceding month.

Recent preliminary data had showed that March inflation came in lower than forecast in several major euro zone economies. Last month’s inflation hit 2.3% in Germany and fell to 2.2% in Spain, while staying unchanged at 0.9% in France.

The figures, which are harmonized across the euro area for comparability, boosted expectations for a further 25-basis-point interest rate cut from the European Central Bank during its upcoming meeting on April 17. Markets were pricing in an around 76% chance of such a reduction ahead of the release of the euro zone inflation data on Tuesday, according to LSEG data.

The European Union is set to be slapped with tariffs due in effect later this week from the U.S. administration of Donald Trump — including a 25% levy on imported cars.

While the exact impact of the tariffs and retaliatory measures remains uncertain, many economists have warned for months that their effect could be inflationary.

This is a breaking news story, please check back for updates.

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Economics

Will Elon Musk’s cash splash pay off in Wisconsin?

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TO GET A sense of what the Republican Party thinks of the electoral value of Elon Musk, listen to what Brad Schimel, a conservative candidate for the Supreme Court of Wisconsin, has to say about the billionaire. At an event on March 29th at an airsoft range (a more serious version of paintball) just outside Kenosha, five speakers, including Mr Schimel, spoke for over an hour about the importance of the election to the Republican cause. Mr Musk’s political action committees (PACs) have poured over $20m into the race, far more than any other donor’s. But over the course of the event, his name came up precisely zero times.

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Economics

German inflation, March 2025

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Customers shop for fresh fruits and vegetables in a supermarket in Munich, Germany, on March 8, 2025.

Michael Nguyen | Nurphoto | Getty Images

German inflation came in at a lower-than-expected 2.3% in March, preliminary data from the country’s statistics office Destatis showed Monday.

It compares to February’s 2.6% print, which was revised lower from a preliminary reading, and a poll of Reuters economists who had been expecting inflation to come in at 2.4% The print is harmonized across the euro area for comparability. 

On a monthly basis, harmonized inflation rose 0.4%. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy costs, came in at 2.5%, below February’s 2.7% reading.

Meanwhile services inflation, which had long been sticky, also eased to 3.4% in March, from 3.8% in the previous month.

The data comes at a critical time for the German economy as U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs loom and fiscal and economic policy shifts at home could be imminent.

Trade is a key pillar for the German economy, making it more vulnerable to the uncertainty and quickly changing developments currently dominating global trade policy. A slew of levies from the U.S. are set to come into force this week, including 25% tariffs on imported cars — a sector that is key to Germany’s economy. The country’s political leaders and car industry heavyweights have slammed Trump’s plans.

Meanwhile Germany’s political parties are working to establish a new coalition government following the results of the February 2025 federal election. Negotiations are underway between the Christian Democratic Union, alongside its sister party the Christian Social Union, and the Social Democratic Union.

While various points of contention appear to remain between the parties, their talks have already yielded some results. Earlier this month, Germany’s lawmakers voted in favor of a major fiscal package, which included amendments to long-standing debt rules to allow for higher defense spending and a 500-billion-euro ($541 billion) infrastructure fund.

This is a breaking news story, please check back for updates.

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