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Economics

Checks and Balance newsletter: What is Trumpism, actually?

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This is the introduction to Checks and Balance, a weekly, subscriber-only newsletter bringing exclusive insight from our correspondents in America.

James Bennet, our Lexington columnist, considers the difficulty of defining Trumpism

“It’s not the Trump Party quite yet” was the headline on a Lexington column I wrote back in January. Well, it is now. Donald Trump has locked up the nomination. He has installed loyalists, including a daughter-in-law, atop the Republican National Committee, and Republican politicians who once resisted him, having capitulated, are flaunting his endorsement. Nikki Haley, former governor of South Carolina, ran a good campaign, but primary voters mostly rejected her message, which was basically that of the politician who defined the party from the 1980s into the Trump era, Ronald Reagan.

But I don’t think voters can be certain just what this new Republican Party stands for, because, as Mr Trump demonstrated in the past few days, he remains such an opportunistic and transactional politician. He suggested he favoured “cutting” entitlements, then insisted he would do no such thing, and he reversed a position he held as president: while in office he issued an executive order to ban TikTok, a social-media app, if its Chinese parent company, ByteDance, did not sell the app’s American operations. But this week he opposed a bipartisan bill in the House seeking the same outcome. The Economist endorsed the bill in this week’s issue.

Mr Trump explained that he wanted to combat a domestic adversary instead: “I don’t want Facebook, which cheated in the last Election, doing better,” he wrote on his own social-media platform, Truth Social, with his odd, or maybe Germanic, capitalisation. “They are a true Enemy of the People!” Later, he suggested another political rationale: a lot of young people love TikTok. A third possibility is that the former president is courting donations from a billionaire investor in TikTok; Mr Trump has denied discussing the app with him. 

Whatever his motive, or mix of motives, none speaks to protecting Americans’ data or countering China. Yet Mr Trump said he still considers TikTok a national-security threat. It is this slipperiness about ends and means that makes Trumpism, unlike Reaganism, so hard to define apart from the man himself. Mr Trump calls himself pro-life, and he was able to appoint enough justices to overturn Roe v Wade, but what will his position on abortion be in the end? I wonder if he knows. 

Despite having served a term Mr Trump still offers less a set of principles than a mush of private and public aspirations and interests. That is a squishy new foundation for the grand old party. The fact that House Republicans overwhelmingly ignored Mr Trump’s opposition and supported the ban suggests that, while they may bow to him as their political champion, they do not take him as seriously when it comes to policy. Let’s hope some can show similar sense when it comes to aid for Ukraine and other matters.

Economics

UK inflation September 2024

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The Canary Wharf business district is seen in the distance behind autumnal leaves on October 09, 2024 in London, United Kingdom.

Dan Kitwood | Getty Images News | Getty Images

LONDON — Inflation in the U.K. dropped sharply to 1.7% in September, the Office for National Statistics said Wednesday.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected the headline rate to come in at a higher 1.9% for the month, in the first dip of the print below the Bank of England’s 2% target since April 2021.

Inflation has been hovering around that level for the last four months, and came in at 2.2% in August.

Core inflation, which excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, came in at 3.2% for the month, down from 3.6% in August and below the 3.4% forecast of a Reuters poll.

Price rises in the services sector, the dominant portion of the U.K. economy, eased significantly to 4.9% last month from 5.6% in August, now hitting its lowest rate since May 2022.

Core and services inflation are key watch points for Bank of England policymakers as they mull whether to cut interest rates again at their November meeting.

As of Wednesday morning, market pricing put an 80% probability on a November rate cut ahead of the latest inflation print. Analysts on Tuesday said lower wage growth reported by the ONS this week had supported the case for a cut. The BOE reduced its key rate by 25 basis points in August before holding in September.

Within the broader European region, inflation in the euro zone dipped below the European Central Bank’s 2% target last month, hitting 1.8%, according to the latest data.

This is a breaking news story and will be updated shortly.

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Economics

Why Larry Hogan’s long-odds bid for a Senate seat matters

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FEW REPUBLICAN politicians differ more from Donald Trump than Larry Hogan, the GOP Senate candidate in Maryland. Consider the contrasts between a Trump rally and a Hogan event. Whereas Mr Trump prefers to take the stage and riff in front of packed arenas, Mr Hogan spent a recent Friday night chatting with locals at a waterfront wedding venue in Baltimore County. Mr Hogan’s stump speech, at around ten minutes, felt as long as a single off-script Trump tangent. Mr Trump delights in defying his advisers; Mr Hogan fastidiously sticks to talking points about bipartisanship, good governance and overcoming tough odds. Put another way, Mr Hogan’s campaign is something Mr Trump is rarely accused of being: boring. But it is intriguing.

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Economics

Polarisation by education is remaking American politics

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DEPENDING ON where exactly you find yourself, western Pennsylvania can feel Appalachian, Midwestern, booming or downtrodden. No matter where, however, this part of the state feels like the centre of the American political universe. Since she became the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, Kamala Harris has visited Western Pennsylvania six times—more often than Philadelphia, on the other side of the state. She will mark her seventh on a trip on October 14th, to the small city of Erie, where Donald Trump also held a rally recently. Democratic grandees flit through Pittsburgh regularly. It is where Ms Harris chose to unveil the details of her economic agenda, and it is where Barack Obama visited on October 10th to deliver encouragement and mild chastisement. “Do not just sit back and hope for the best,” he admonished. “Get off your couch and vote.”

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