Finance
Chicago Fed President Goolsbee says if economy deteriorates, Fed will ‘fix it’
Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee on Monday vowed that the central bank would react to signs of weakness in the economy and indicated that interest rates could be too restrictive now.
Asked whether weakening in the labor market and manufacturing sector could prompt a response from the Fed, Goolsbee did not commit to a specific course of action but said it does not make sense to keep a “restrictive” policy stance if the economy is weakening. He also declined to comment on whether the Fed would institute an emergency intermeeting cut.
“The Fed’s job is very straightforward: maximize employment, stabilize prices and maintain financial stability. That’s what we’re going to do,” the central bank official said during an interview on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” program. “We’re forward-looking about it. So if the conditions collectively start coming in like that on the through line, there’s deterioration on any of those parts, we’re going to fix it.”
The interview occurred with markets in turmoil.
Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average were off nearly 1,300 points, or close to 3%, as Treasury yields plummeted. The moves continued a downward trajectory that began Thursday, a day after the Fed opted not to lower interest rates, raising concerns that policymakers were behind the curve as inflation falls and the economy weakens.
Those fears were heightened Friday when the Labor Department said nonfarm payrolls increased by just 114,000 and the unemployment rate climbed to 4.3%, triggering a signal known as the Sahm Rule that the economy could be in recession.
However, Goolsbee said he does not believe that to be the case.
“Jobs numbers came in weaker than expected, but [are] not looking yet like recession,” he said. “I do think you want to be forward-looking of where the economy is headed for making the decisions.”
He also said, however, that Fed policy is restrictive now, a position it should only be in if the economy looks like it is overheating. The central bank has kept its benchmark rate in a range between 5.25% and 5.5% since July 2023, the highest level in some 23 years.
“Should we reduce restrictiveness? I’m not going to bind our hands of what should happen going forward because we’re still going to get more information. But if we are not overheating, we should not be tightening or restrictive in real terms,” he said.
Policymakers have been focused on the “real” fed funds rate, which is the Fed’s benchmark minus the inflation rate. As inflation declines, the real rate increases — unless the Fed chooses to cut. The real rate now is around 2.73%. Fed officials judge the long-term real rate to be closer to 0.5%.
Markets expect the Fed to head into an aggressive easing mode, starting in September with a 0.5 percentage-point rate cut that is now fully priced in as measured by 30-day fed funds futures contracts. Traders expect the Fed to slice 1.25 to 1.5 percentage points off the funds rate by the end of the year, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
Jonathan McKernan, U.S. President Donald Trump’s nominee to be the director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, sits on the day he testifies during a Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee confirmation hearing on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C., U.S., February 27, 2025.
Annabelle Gordon | Reuters
President Donald Trump’s pick to lead the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau on Thursday withstood grilling from Democrat senators who repeatedly asked him to confirm that he would uphold his legal obligations to run the agency.
Pressed by senators including Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, Jonathan McKernan, a former Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation board member, told lawmakers he would “fully and faithfully” enforce laws related to the CFPB’s mission.
“My legal career started just as the 2008 financial crisis was beginning,” McKernan said. “Watching that crisis unfold left me with an enduring conviction that we must have a financial regulatory system that works for everyday Americans. Consumer protection is critical to that end.”
Still, McKernan made it clear that he disagreed with how predecessor Rohit Chopra ran the agency. In opening remarks, he said that the CFPB “acted in a politicized manner,” exceeded its legal authority, hurt consumers by inadvertently raising prices and suffered from a “crisis of legitimacy.”
“This must be corrected if the CFPB is to reliably do what it’s supposed to do: look out for the American consumer,” said McKernan, a former corporate banking lawyer and Senate aide.
Since acting CFPB Director Russell Vought took over this month, the agency has shuttered its Washington headquarters, fired about 200 employees and told those who remain to stop nearly all work. Those moves, along with an allegation from a CFPB union that Vought intends to fire more than 95% of the agency’s staff, has spurred fears that the agency faces extinction.
Earlier Thursday, the CFPB dismissed at least four enforcement lawsuits, including actions against Capital One and a Berkshire Hathaway unit.
U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) speaks at a rally outside the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) on Feb. 10, 2025 in Washington, DC.
Anna Moneymaker | Getty Images
Warren pressed McKernan on if he would uphold CFPB’s statutory requirements, including having a website and toll-free line for consumer complaints, as well as maintaining advocacy offices for military veterans and senior citizens.
“Each of the offices I think you mentioned is mandated by statute,” McKernan said. “Yes, I’ll follow the law.”
Rattling off a list of public comments and steps made by the Trump administration that indicate the bureau could be shuttered entirely, Warren questioned how effective McKernan could be.
“It kind of feels like you’ve been lined up to be the No. 1 horse at the glue factory,” Warren said.
For his part, McKernan said that if confirmed by the Senate, he would “right-size” the CFPB, as well as “refocus it” and “make it accountable.”
Sen. Jack Reed, D.-R.I., followed up, adding that Vought has canceled the lease on the agency’s headquarters and dismissed cases against “predatory lenders.” Reed also mentioned reporting that both Trump and Vought, who is also head of the Office of Management and Budget, want to eliminate the bureau.
“You’re going to be placed in a very difficult position,” Reed said. “You do not appear to have much presidential support or OMB support, and I have this sinking feeling that you’re departing Liverpool on the Titanic. Good luck.”
McKernan didn’t verbally respond to Reed’s comment, only smiling ruefully while nodding slightly.
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