Finance
Chicago Fed President Goolsbee says if economy deteriorates, Fed will ‘fix it’
Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee on Monday vowed that the central bank would react to signs of weakness in the economy and indicated that interest rates could be too restrictive now.
Asked whether weakening in the labor market and manufacturing sector could prompt a response from the Fed, Goolsbee did not commit to a specific course of action but said it does not make sense to keep a “restrictive” policy stance if the economy is weakening. He also declined to comment on whether the Fed would institute an emergency intermeeting cut.
“The Fed’s job is very straightforward: maximize employment, stabilize prices and maintain financial stability. That’s what we’re going to do,” the central bank official said during an interview on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” program. “We’re forward-looking about it. So if the conditions collectively start coming in like that on the through line, there’s deterioration on any of those parts, we’re going to fix it.”
The interview occurred with markets in turmoil.
Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average were off nearly 1,300 points, or close to 3%, as Treasury yields plummeted. The moves continued a downward trajectory that began Thursday, a day after the Fed opted not to lower interest rates, raising concerns that policymakers were behind the curve as inflation falls and the economy weakens.
Those fears were heightened Friday when the Labor Department said nonfarm payrolls increased by just 114,000 and the unemployment rate climbed to 4.3%, triggering a signal known as the Sahm Rule that the economy could be in recession.
However, Goolsbee said he does not believe that to be the case.
“Jobs numbers came in weaker than expected, but [are] not looking yet like recession,” he said. “I do think you want to be forward-looking of where the economy is headed for making the decisions.”
He also said, however, that Fed policy is restrictive now, a position it should only be in if the economy looks like it is overheating. The central bank has kept its benchmark rate in a range between 5.25% and 5.5% since July 2023, the highest level in some 23 years.
“Should we reduce restrictiveness? I’m not going to bind our hands of what should happen going forward because we’re still going to get more information. But if we are not overheating, we should not be tightening or restrictive in real terms,” he said.
Policymakers have been focused on the “real” fed funds rate, which is the Fed’s benchmark minus the inflation rate. As inflation declines, the real rate increases — unless the Fed chooses to cut. The real rate now is around 2.73%. Fed officials judge the long-term real rate to be closer to 0.5%.
Markets expect the Fed to head into an aggressive easing mode, starting in September with a 0.5 percentage-point rate cut that is now fully priced in as measured by 30-day fed funds futures contracts. Traders expect the Fed to slice 1.25 to 1.5 percentage points off the funds rate by the end of the year, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
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Tens of millions of private-sector workers lack access to a retirement savings plan through their employer, which experts at the AARP Public Policy Institute warn could pose a significant burden to future taxpayers.
The institute estimates that 57 million private sector workers in the U.S. – about half of the workforce – are not offered either a traditional pension or a retirement savings plan through their employer, a problem that has persisted for decades, according to David John, senior strategic policy adviser at AARP.
In April, an AARP survey showed that 20% of adults at least 50 years old had no retirement savings, and more than half were worried they would not have enough money to support them in retirement.
John said that individuals in their 50s or early 60s who are facing retirement without enough savings are in the midst of a crisis.
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For society as a whole, he said, “It’s not a crisis right now, but it’s pretty inevitable that it will be.”
“It’s a really significant problem, and it’s one that’s going to affect all of us, because if we’re not the ones with the small retirement savings to supplement Social Security, we’re going to be the ones who are paying the taxes to help the people who didn’t have that opportunity,” John said.
An AARP survey showed that 20% of adults at least 50 years old had no retirement savings. (Annette Riedl/picture alliance via Getty Images / Getty Images)
If many people lack adequate retirement savings, they will likely require more forms of public assistance – from nonprofit organizations or government programs. This could include support for health care needs, housing or other essential services.
To help, more than a dozen states have already set up or are in the process of implementing state-facilitated retirement savings plans for small businesses, according to John.
Small businesses are more likely not to provide retirement savings benefits to employees compared to larger corporations. Pew Charity Trusts cited Bureau of Labor Statistics data showing that 57% of private-sector firms with fewer than 100 workers offered a retirement benefit plan as of 2023. However, 86% of companies with at least 100 workers and about 91% of firms with at least 500 workers did.
For small businesses, their main focus is often on staying afloat, leaving little time or resources to handle such tasks. But these state programs, such as CalSavers, California’s retirement savings program for workers who do not have a way to save for retirement at work, are a way to help that does not have any cost to a small business.
More than a dozen states have already set up or are in the process of implementing state-facilitated retirement savings plans for small businesses. (iStock / iStock)
Greg McBride, chief financial analyst for Bankrate, told FOX Business that the bigger issue is that most workers don’t recognize that they can still contribute to a retirement account independently, without relying on their employer.
“Something lost on consumers is that lack of access to a retirement savings plan through your employer doesn’t mean that you can’t save for retirement on a tax-advantaged basis,” McBride said.
If someone or their spouse with whom they jointly file taxes with has an earned income, they are eligible to contribute to an Individual Retirement Account (IRA), which provides tax advantages for retirement savings.
It’s estimated that 57 million private sector workers in the U.S. are not offered either a traditional pension or a retirement savings plan through their employer. (iStock / iStock)
According to the IRS, there are several types of IRAs available, including a traditional IRA, a tax-advantaged personal savings plan where contributions may be tax-deductible, and a Roth IRA, a tax-advantaged personal savings plan where contributions are not deductible but qualified distributions may be tax-free.
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While McBride said the “lack of employee-sponsored retirement savings isn’t a barrier to saving for retirement,” he did acknowledge that it is harder. There is no employee match and there are lower contribution limits for IRAs compared to workplace-based plans, according to McBride.
Still, he doesn’t believe enough workers are taking advantage of these accounts.
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