Finance

Chicago Fed President Goolsbee says if economy deteriorates, Fed will ‘fix it’

Published

10 months ago

August 5, 2024

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee: If conditions start to deteriorate, the Fed will 'fix it'

Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee on Monday vowed that the central bank would react to signs of weakness in the economy and indicated that interest rates could be too restrictive now.

Asked whether weakening in the labor market and manufacturing sector could prompt a response from the Fed, Goolsbee did not commit to a specific course of action but said it does not make sense to keep a “restrictive” policy stance if the economy is weakening. He also declined to comment on whether the Fed would institute an emergency intermeeting cut.

“The Fed’s job is very straightforward: maximize employment, stabilize prices and maintain financial stability. That’s what we’re going to do,” the central bank official said during an interview on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” program. “We’re forward-looking about it. So if the conditions collectively start coming in like that on the through line, there’s deterioration on any of those parts, we’re going to fix it.”

The interview occurred with markets in turmoil.

Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average were off nearly 1,300 points, or close to 3%, as Treasury yields plummeted. The moves continued a downward trajectory that began Thursday, a day after the Fed opted not to lower interest rates, raising concerns that policymakers were behind the curve as inflation falls and the economy weakens.

Those fears were heightened Friday when the Labor Department said nonfarm payrolls increased by just 114,000 and the unemployment rate climbed to 4.3%, triggering a signal known as the Sahm Rule that the economy could be in recession.

However, Goolsbee said he does not believe that to be the case.

“Jobs numbers came in weaker than expected, but [are] not looking yet like recession,” he said. “I do think you want to be forward-looking of where the economy is headed for making the decisions.”

He also said, however, that Fed policy is restrictive now, a position it should only be in if the economy looks like it is overheating. The central bank has kept its benchmark rate in a range between 5.25% and 5.5% since July 2023, the highest level in some 23 years.

“Should we reduce restrictiveness? I’m not going to bind our hands of what should happen going forward because we’re still going to get more information. But if we are not overheating, we should not be tightening or restrictive in real terms,” he said.

Policymakers have been focused on the “real” fed funds rate, which is the Fed’s benchmark minus the inflation rate. As inflation declines, the real rate increases — unless the Fed chooses to cut. The real rate now is around 2.73%. Fed officials judge the long-term real rate to be closer to 0.5%.

Markets expect the Fed to head into an aggressive easing mode, starting in September with a 0.5 percentage-point rate cut that is now fully priced in as measured by 30-day fed funds futures contracts. Traders expect the Fed to slice 1.25 to 1.5 percentage points off the funds rate by the end of the year, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.

Finance

China’s April retail sales growth of 5.1% misses expectations as consumption remains a worry

Published

2 hours ago

May 18, 2025

Business Finance News

Citizens are shopping at a supermarket in Nanjing, East China’s Jiangsu province, on March 9, 2024.

Costfoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images

China’s retail sales growth slowed in April, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed Monday, signaling that consumption remains a worry for the world’s second-largest economy.

Retail sales rose 5.1% from a year earlier in April, missing analysts’ estimates of 5.5% growth, according to a Reuters poll. Sales had grown by 5.9% in the previous month.

Industrial output grew 6.1% year on year in April, stronger than analysts’ expectations for a 5.5% rise, while slowing down from the 7.7% jump in March.

Fixed-asset investment for the first four months this year, which includes property and infrastructure investment, expanded 4.0%, slightly lower than analysts’ expectations for a 4.2% growth in a Reuters poll.

The drag from real estate worsened within fixed asset investment, falling 10.3% for the year as of April.

The urban survey-based unemployment rate in April eased to 5.1% from 5.2% in March.

The data came against the backdrop of trade tensions between China and the U.S.

U.S. President Donald Trump placed tariffs of 145% on imports from China that came into effect in April. Beijing retaliated with tariffs in kind, with 125% levies on American imports.

Trade-war fears have receded after a meeting of U.S. and Chinese trade representatives in Switzerland earlier this month led to a lower set of levies between the world’s two largest economies.

Beijing and Washington agreed to roll back most of the tariffs imposed on each other’s goods for 90 days, allowing some room for further negotiation to reach a more lasting deal.

That prompted a slew of global investment banks to raise their forecasts for China’s economic growth this year while paring back expectations for more proactive stimulus as Beijing strives to reach its growth target of around 5%.

This is breaking news. Please check back later for updates.

Finance

Scott Bessent calls Moody’s a ‘lagging indicator’ after U.S. credit downgrade

Published

13 hours ago

May 18, 2025

Business Finance News

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in an interview on NBC News’ “Meet the Press” that Moody’s Ratings were a “lagging indicator” after the group downgraded the U.S.’ credit rating by a notch from the highest level.

“I think that Moody’s is a lagging indicator,” Bessent said Sunday. “I think that’s what everyone thinks of credit agencies.”

Moody’s said last week that the downgrade from Aaa to Aa1 “reflects the increase over more than a decade in government debt and interest payment ratios to levels that are significantly higher than similarly rated sovereigns.”

The treasury secretary asserted that the downgrade was related to the Biden administration’s spending policies, which that administration had touted as investments in priorities, including combatting climate change and increasing health care coverage.

“Just like Sean Duffy said with our air traffic control system, we didn’t get here in the past 100 days,” Bessent continued, referring to the transportation secretary. “It’s the Biden administration and the spending that we have seen over the past four years.”

The U.S. has $36.22 trillion in national debt, according to the Treasury Department. It began growing steadily in the 1980s and continued increasing during both President Donald Trump’s first term and former President Joe Biden’s administration.

Bessent also told moderator Kristen Welker that he spoke on the phone with the CEO of Walmart, Doug McMillon, who the treasury secretary said told him the retail giant would “eat some of the tariffs, just as they did in ’18, ’19 and ’20.”

Walmart CFO John David Rainey previously told CNBC that Walmart would absorb some higher costs related to tariffs. The CFO had also told CNBC separately that he was “concerned” consumers would “start seeing higher prices,” pointing to tariffs.

Trump said in a post to Truth Social last week that Walmart should “eat the tariffs.” Walmart responded, saying the company has “always worked to keep our prices as low as possible and we won’t stop.”

“We’ll keep prices as low as we can for as long as we can given the reality of small retail margins,” the statement continued.

When asked about his conversation, Bessent denied he applied any pressure on Walmart to “eat the tariffs,” noting that he and the CEO “have a very good relationship.”

“I just wanted to hear it from him, rather than second-, third-hand from the press,” Bessent said.

McMillon had said on Walmart’s earnings call that tariffs have put pressure on prices. Bessent argued that companies “have to give the worst case scenario” on the calls.

The White House has said that countries are approaching the administration to negotiate over tariffs. The administration has also announced trade agreements with the United Kingdom and China.

Bessent said on Sunday that he thinks countries that do not negotiate in good faith would see duties return to the rates announced the day the administration unveiled across-the-board tariffs.

“The negotiating leverage that President Trump is talking about here is if you don’t want to negotiate, then it will spring back to the April 2 level,” Bessent said.

Bessent was also asked about Trump saying the administration would accept a luxury jet from Qatar to be used as Air Force One, infuriating Democrats and drawing criticism from some Republicans as well.

The treasury secretary called questions about the $400 million gift an “off ramp for many in the media not to acknowledge what an incredible trip this was,” referring to investment commitments the president received during his trip last week to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.

“If we go back to your initial question on the Moody’s downgrade, who cares? Qatar doesn’t. Saudi doesn’t. UAE doesn’t,” he said. “They’re all pushing money in.”

When asked for his response to those who argue that the jet sends a message that countries can curry favor with the U.S. by sending gifts, Bessent said that “the gifts are to the American people,” pointing to investment agreements that were unveiled during Trump’s Middle East trip.

Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn., criticized Bessent’s comments about the credit downgrade, saying in a separate interview on “Meet the Press.”

“I heard the treasury secretary say that, ‘Who cares about the downgrading of our credit rating from Moody’s?’ That is a big deal,” Murphy said.

“That means that we are likely headed for a recession. That probably means higher interest rates for anybody out there who is trying to start a business or to buy a home,” he continued. “These guys are running the economy recklessly because all they care about is the health of the Mar-a-Lago billionaire class.”