Finance

China will cut reserve requirement ratio by 50 basis points, PBOC chief says

Published

6 months ago

September 24, 2024

Pan Gongsheng, governor of the People’s Bank of China, delivers a speech during the 2024 Lujiazui Forum on June 19, 2024 in Shanghai, China.

Vcg | Visual China Group | Getty Images

BEIJING — China will cut the amount of cash banks need to have on hand, known as the reserve requirement ratio, or RRR, People’s Bank of China Gov. Pan Gongsheng said during a press conference on Tuesday.

Pan, who was speaking to reporters alongside two other financial regulator heads, did not indicate exactly when the central bank would ease policy but indicated it would happen by the end of the year.

The relatively rare high-level press conference was scheduled after the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates last week. That kicked off an easing cycle that gave China’s central bank further room to cut its rates and boost growth in the face of deflationary pressure.

Pan became PBOC governor in July 2023. During his first press conference as central bank governor in January, Pan said the PBOC would cut the amount of cash banks need to have on hand, known as the reserve requirement ratio, or RRR. Such policy announcements are rarely made during such events, and are typically disseminated through online releases and state media.

He then told reporters in March, alongside China’s annual parliamentary meeting, there was room to cut the RRR further. Such a reduction is widely expected in coming months.

Unlike the Fed’s focus on a main interest rate, the PBOC uses a variety of rates to manage monetary policy. The PBOC on Friday did not change its loan prime rate, a benchmark that affects corporate and household loans, including mortgages.

China’s government system also means that policy is set at a far higher level than that of the financial regulators speaking Tuesday. Such top-level meetings in July called for efforts to reach full-year growth targets and to boost domestic demand.

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While the PBOC kept the loan prime rate unchanged in the days since the Fed’s cut, it has moved to lower a short-term rate, which determines the supply of money. The PBOC on Monday lowered the 14-day reverse repo rate by 10 basis points to 1.85%, but did not reduce the 7-day reverse repo rate, which was cut in July to 1.7%. Pan has indicated he would like the 7-day rate to become the main policy rate.

China’s economic growth has slowed, dragged down by the real estate slump and low consumer confidence. Economists have called for more stimulus, especially on the fiscal front.

Finance

China’s response to U.S. tariffs will likely focus on stimulus, trade

Published

3 hours ago

April 3, 2025

Business Finance News

Chinese national flags flutter on boats near shipping containers at the Yangshan Port outside Shanghai, China, February 7, 2025.

Go Nakamura | Reuters

BEIJING — China’s reaction to new U.S. tariffs will likely focus on domestic stimulus and strengthening ties with trading partners, according to analysts based in Greater China.

Hours after U.S. President Donald Trump announced additional 34% tariffs on China, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce called on the U.S. to cancel the tariffs, and vowed unspecified countermeasures. The sweeping U.S. policy also slapped new duties on the European Union and major Asian countries.

Chinese exports to the U.S. this year had already been hit by 20% in additional tariffs, raising the total rate on shipments from China to 54%, among the highest levied by the Trump administration. The effective rate for individual product lines can vary.

But, as has been the case, the closing line of the Chinese statement was a call to negotiate.

“I think the focus of China’s response in the near term won’t be retaliatory tariffs or such measures,” said Bruce Pang, adjunct associate professor at CUHK Business School. That’s according to a CNBC translation of the Chinese-language statement.

Instead, Pang expects China to focus on improving its own economy by diversifying export destinations and products, as well as doubling down on its priority of boosting domestic consumption.

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China, the world’s second-largest economy, has since September stepped up stimulus efforts by expanding the fiscal deficit, increasing a consumption trade-in subsidy program and calling for a halt in the real estate slump. Notably, Chinese President Xi Jinping held a rare meeting with tech entrepreneurs including Alibaba founder Jack Ma in February, in a show of support for the private sector.

The policy reversal — from regulatory tightening in recent years — reflects how Beijing has been “anticipating the coming slowdown or even crash in exports,” Macquarie’s Chief China Economist Larry Hu said in a report, ahead of Trump’s latest tariff announcement. He pointed out that the pandemic-induced export boom of 2021 enabled Beijing to “launch a massive regulatory campaign.”

“My view stays the same,” Hu said in an email Thursday. “Beijing will use domestic stimulus to offset the impact of tariffs, so that they could still achieve the growth target of ‘around 5%.'”

Instead of retaliatory tariffs, Hu also expects Beijing will focus on still using blacklists, export controls on critical minerals and probes into foreign companies in China. Hu also anticipates China will keep the yuan strong against the U.S. dollar and resist calls from retailers to cut prices — as a way to push inflationary pressure onto the U.S.

China’s top leaders in early March announced they would pursue a target of around 5% growth in gross domestic product this year, a task they emphasized would require “very arduous work” to achieve. The finance ministry also hinted it could increase fiscal support if needed.

About 20% of China’s economy relies on exports, according to Goldman Sachs. They previously estimated that new U.S. tariffs of around 60% on China would lower real GDP by around 2 percentage points. The firm still maintains a full-year forecast of 4.5% GDP growth.

Changing global trade

What’s different from the impact of tariffs under Trump’s first term is that China is not the only target, but one of a swath of countries facing hefty levies on their exports to the U.S. Some of these countries, such as Vietnam and Thailand, had served as alternate routes for Chinese goods to reach the U.S.

At the Chinese export hub of Yiwu on Thursday, businesses seemed nonchalant about the impact of the new U.S. tariffs, due to a perception their overseas competitors wouldn’t gain an advantage, said Cameron Johnson, a Shanghai-based senior partner at consulting firm Tidalwave Solutions.

He pointed out that previously, the U.S. had focused its trade measures on forcing companies to remove China from their supply chains and go to other countries. But Chinese manufacturers had expanded overseas alongside that diversification, he said.

“The reality is this [new U.S. tariff policy] essentially gives most of Asia and Africa to China, and the U.S. is not prepared,” Johnson said. He expects China won’t make things unnecessarily difficult for U.S. businesses operating in the country and instead will try harder to build other trade relationships.

Since Trump’s first four-year term ended in early 2021, China has increased its trade with Southeast Asia so much that the region is now Beijing’s largest trading partner, followed by the European Union and then the U.S.

The 10 member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) joined China, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand in forming the world’s largest free trade bloc — the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) — which came into being in early 2022. The U.S. and India are not members of the RCEP.

“RCEP member countries will naturally deepen trade ties with one another,” Yue Su, principal economist, China, at the Economist Intelligence Unit, said in a note Thursday.

“This is also partly because China’s economy is likely to remain the most — or at least among the most—stable in relative terms, given the government’s strong commitment to its growth targets and its readiness to deploy fiscal policy measures when needed,” she said.

Uncertainties remain

The extent to which all countries will be slapped with tariffs this week remains uncertain as Trump is widely expected to use the duties as a negotiating tactic, especially with China.

He said last week the U.S. could lower its tariffs on China to help close a deal for Beijing-based ByteDance to sell TikTok’s U.S. operations.

But the level of new tariffs on China was worse than many investors expected.

“Unlike some of the optimistic market forecasts, we do not expect a US-China bilateral grand bargain,” Ting Lu, chief China economist at Nomura, said in a note Thursday.

“We expect tensions between these two mega economies to worsen significantly,” he said, “especially as China has been making large strides in high-tech sectors, including AI and robotics.”