Staff sort express deliveries at China Post’s Zaozhuang branch in east China’s Shandong province on November 10, 2024
Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images
BEIJING — China’s Singles’ Day shopping festival saw consumers spend more than expected in what has otherwise been a tepid retail environment, consulting executives told CNBC.
The country’s version of Black Friday kicked off this year on Oct. 14, more than a week earlier than in 2023, and wrapped up Monday. Major e-commerce companies used to report gross merchandise value, an industry measure of sales over time, but did not for a third consecutive year amid weak consumer sentiment.
“I do think for many brands it probably will have turned out a bit better than they thought, but on a low level. Probably nobody would say we hit it out of the ballpark,” said Chris Reitermann, CEO of Ogilvy APAC and Greater China. He is also president of WPP China.
Many multinational corporations that sell consumer products in China are more cautious on the market, if not struggling, Reitermann said. But he pointed out many of the companies are still “very profitable” in the country, even if their growth has slowed to the low single digits, instead of high double digits.
For this year’s Singles Day, Alibaba claimed “robust growth” in GMV and a “record number of active buyers,” while JD.com said the number of shoppers on its platform rose by more than 20% year-over-year.
The shopping season that celebrates single people, also known as Double 11, came as the Chinese government has announced a series of stimulus measures since late September, fueling a stock market rally.
“There seems to be an uptick” in consumer sentiment over the last six weeks, said Daniel Zipser, senior partner at McKinsey and leader of its Asia Pacific consumer and retail division. It’s “hard to predict what that means going forward.”
Singles Day exceeded expectations for most brands, Zipser said. But rather than sales rising across the board, he pointed out pockets of growth in categories such as outdoors, pet care and “blind box” toys — in which consumers buy uniformly marked boxes for a chance at winning a new collectible.
He noted that the blind box category is one that went from $0 before Covid-19 to an industry more than $2 billion in size, reflecting the potential speed of consumer adoption in China.
China’s retail sales for October are expected to have risen by 3.8% from a year ago, according to a Reuters poll. That would be an improvement from 3.2% growth in September.
“We saw people spending more this year,” Jacob Cooke, co-founder and CEO of WPIC Marketing + Technologies, told CNBC on Tuesday. The company helps foreign brands — such as Vitamix and IS Clinical — sell online in China and other parts of Asia.
He estimated 16% growth in GMV for the shopping festival from last year, in likely the strongest performance in years. Cooke added that brands didn’t have to cut prices as much.
Research firm Syntun said Tuesday it estimated 20.1% year-on-year growth in sales over the Singles Day period to 1.11 trillion ($150 billion) for Alibaba’s Tmall, JD.com and PDD.
Investors could get more details on China consumption later this week. JD.com is scheduled to release quarterly results Thursday, followed by Alibaba on Friday.
“We’ve seen consumers who have, if you will, save for a rainy day, and they’ve purchased on this Double 11 shopping festival,” Deborah Weinswig, founder and CEO of Coresight Research, said Tuesday on CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia.”
She said the company’s weekly survey has indicated some “differences” in consumer sentiment over the last month.
Hopes for a recovery in 2025
China’s consumer spending has come under pressure since the Covid-19 pandemic as households grapple with economic uncertainty. A real estate slump has cut into household wealth, while economic growth has slowed.
While premium or mid-tier brands are “disappearing very fast,” higher-end brands such as Lululemon can do well, Reitermann said. He noted generally that local brands are often lower-priced and able to go to market faster.
He expects some rebound in consumer confidence in the second half of next year, after additional stimulus is likely announced in the first half.
China’s Ministry of Finance last week indicated more fiscal support could come in 2025. While China did not hand out cash to consumers during the pandemic, this year, the country did roll out a trade-in program to subsidize a portion of car and home appliance purchases.
Warren Buffett walks the floor ahead of the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Shareholders Meeting in Omaha, Nebraska on May 3, 2024.
David A. Grogen | CNBC
Berkshire Hathaway shares got a boost after Warren Buffett’s conglomerate reported a surge in operating earnings, but shareholders who were waiting for news of what will happen to its enormous pile of cash might be disappointed.
Class A shares of the Omaha-based parent of Geico and BNSF Railway rose 1.2% premarket Monday following Berkshire’s earnings report over the weekend. Berkshire’s operating profit — earnings from the company’s wholly owned businesses — skyrocketed 71% to $14.5 billion in the fourth quarter, aided by insurance underwriting, where profits jumped 302% from the year-earlier period, to $3.4 billion.
Berkshire’s investment gains from its portfolio holdings slowed sharply, however, in the fourth quarter, to $5.2 billion from $29.1 billion in the year-earlier period. Berkshire sold more equities than it bought for a ninth consecutive quarter in the three months of last year, bringing total sale of equities to more than $134 billion in 2024. Notably, the 94-year-old investor has been aggressively shrinking Berkshire’s two largest equity holdings — Apple and Bank of America.
As a result of the selling spree, Berkshire’s gigantic cash pile grew to another record of $334.2 billion, up from $325.2 billion at the end of the third quarter.
In Buffett’s annual letter, the “Oracle of Omaha” said that raising a record amount of cash didn’t reflect a dimming of his love for buying stocks and businesses.
“Despite what some commentators currently view as an extraordinary cash position at Berkshire, the great majority of your money remains in equities,” Buffett wrote. “That preference won’t change.”
He hinted that high valuations were the reason for sitting on his hands amid a raging bull market, saying “often, nothing looks compelling.” Buffett also endorsed the ability of Greg Abek, his chosen successor, to pick equity opportunities, even comparing him to the late Charlie Munger.
Meanwhile, Berkshire’s buyback halt is still in place as the conglomerate repurchased zero shares in the fourth quarter and in the first quarter of this year, through Feb. 10.
Some investors and analysts expressed impatience with the lack of action and continued to wait for an explanation, while others have faith that Buffett’s conservative stance will pave the way for big opportunities in the next downturn.
“Shareholders should take comfort in knowing that the firm continues to be managed to survive and emerge stronger from any economic or market downturn by being in a financial position to take advantage of opportunities during a crisis,” said Bill Stone, chief investment officer at Glenview Trust Company and a Berkshire shareholder.
Berkshire is coming off a strong year, when it rallied 25.5% in 2024, outperforming the S&P 500 — its best since 2021. The stock is up more than 5% so far in 2025.
Check out the companies making headlines before the bell. Domino’s Pizza — Shares fell more than 3% after the pizza chain reported fourth-quarter numbers that missed expectations. The company earned $4.89 per share on revenue of $1.44 billion. Analysts polled by FactSet expected a profit of $4.90 per share on revenue of $1.48 billion. U.S. same-store, a key metric for the company, increased by 0.4%. That was also below a consensus forecast calling for a 1.1% advance. Nike — Shares popped 2% on the back of Jefferies’ upgrade to buy from hold. Jefferies said the athletic apparel maker is turning “back on its innovation engine.” Palantir Technologies — The stock dropped more than 3%, adding to its steep declines from last week amid concern that retail investors may be dumping the AI play. Palantir dropped 14.9% last week, its biggest weekly drop since January. Alibaba — The Chinese e-commerce giant slipped 3%, reversing some of its 15% rally last week on the back of its latest strong earnings report. Monday’s premarket slide came despite an upgrade to overweight from equal weight at Morgan Stanley. Analyst Gary Yu said that Alibaba was poised for continued leadership in the artificial intelligence cloud market. Berkshire Hathaway — Class B shares of Warren Buffett’s conglomerate rose more than 1% in premarket after the firm said its operating profit skyrocketed 71% to $14.5 billion during the final three months of 2024. That was led by a 302% jump in insurance underwriting. Robinhood — The retail trading platform added around 2% after Robinhood said the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission dismissed its investigation of the company’s cryptocurrency segment. Energy companies — Select power company stocks slipped on Monday morning, extending their Friday declines, following the release of a TD Cowen report last week on data centers and Microsoft. In the note, analyst Michael Elias said that MSFT had “cancelled leases in the U.S. totaling ‘a couple of hundred MWs’ with at least two private data center operators.” Shares of Vistra , Talen Energy and GE Vernova all shed less than 1%. Rivian — The electric vehicle stock shed 3% following a downgrade to underperform from neutral at Bank of America. Analyst John Murphy said that the company remains “one of the most viable” EV startups, but a softer-than-expected 2025 outlook, mounting competition, and slowing EV demand combined with a potential pullback in U.S. EV incentives pose headwinds for shares. Freshpet — Shares popped 4% after Jefferies upgraded the pet food retailer to buy from hold, saying the stock is “worth 50% above” where it’s currently trading. The firm expects that Freshpet can compound sales 23% by 2027. The stock is down 32% this year. — CNBC’s Sean Conlon, Brian Evans, Alex Harring, Fred Imbert, Sarah Min and Yun Li contributed reporting.
Tensions between the world’s two largest economies have escalated over the last several years.
Florence Lo | Reuters
BEIJING — China is trying yet again to boost foreign investment, amid geopolitical tensions and businesses’ calls for more concrete actions.
On Feb. 19, authorities published a “2025 action plan for stabilizing foreign investment” to make it easier for foreign capital to invest in domestic telecommunication and biotechnology industries, according to a CNBC translation of the Chinese.
The document called for clearer standards in government procurement — a major issue for foreign businesses in China — and for the development of a plan to gradually allow foreign investment in the education and culture sectors.
“We are looking forward to see this implemented in a manner that delivers tangible benefits for our members,” Jens Eskelund, president of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China, said in a statement Thursday.
The chamber pointed out that China has already mentioned plans to open up telecommunications, health care, education and culture to foreign investment. Greater clarity on public procurement requirements is a “notable positive,” the chamber said, noting that “if fully implemented,” it could benefit foreign companies that have invested heavily to localize their production in China.
China’s latest action plan was released around the same time the Commerce Ministry disclosed that foreign direct investment in January fell by 13.4% to 97.59 billion yuan ($13.46 billion). That was after FDI plunged by 27.1% in 2024 and dropped by 8% in 2023, after at least eight straight years of annual growth, according to official data available through Wind Information.
All regions should “ensure that all the measures are implemented in 2025, and effectively boost foreign investment confidence,” the plan said. The Ministry of Commerce and National Development and Reform Commission — the economic planning agency — jointly released the action plan through the government’s executive body, the State Council.
Officials from the Commerce Ministry emphasized in a press conference Thursday that the action plan would be implemented by the end of 2025, and that details on subsequent supportive measures would come soon.
“We appreciate the Chinese government’s recognition of the vital role foreign companies play in the economy,” Michael Hart, president of the American Chamber of Commerce in China, said in a statement. “We look forward to further discussions on the key challenges our members face and the steps needed to ensure a more level playing field for market access.”
AmCham China’s latest survey of members, released last month, found that a record share are considering or have started diversifying manufacturing or sourcing away from China. The prior year’s survey had found members were finding it harder to make money in China than before the Covid-19 pandemic.
Consumer spending in China has remained lackluster since the pandemic, with retail sales only growing by the low single digits in recent months. Tensions with the U.S. have meanwhile escalated as the White House has restricted Chinese access to advanced technology and levied tariffs on Chinese goods.
‘A very strong signal’
While many aspects of the action plan were publicly mentioned last year, some points — such as allowing foreign companies to buy local equity stakes using domestic loans — are relatively new, said Xiaojia Sun, Beijing-based partner at JunHe Law.
She also highlighted the plan’s call to support foreign investors’ ability to participate in mergers and acquisitions in China, and noted it potentially benefits overseas listings. Sun’s practice covers corporates, mergers and acquisitions and capital markets.
The bigger question remains China’s resolve to act on the plan.
“This action plan is a very strong signal,” Sun said in Mandarin, translated by CNBC. She said she expects Beijing to follow through with implementation, and noted that its release was similar to a rare, high-profile meeting earlier in the week of Chinese President Xi Jinping and entrepreneurs.
That gathering on Feb. 17 included Alibaba founder Jack Ma and DeepSeek’s Liang Wenfeng. In recent years, regulatory crackdowns and uncertainty about future growth had dampened business confidence and foreign investor sentiment.
China needs to strike a balance between tariff retaliation and stabilizing FDI, Citi analysts pointed out earlier this month.
“We believe China policymakers are likely cautious about targeting U.S. [multinationals] as a form of retaliation against U.S. tariffs,” the analysts said. “FDI comes into China, bringing technology and know-how, creating jobs, revenue and profit, and contributing to tax revenue.”
In a relatively rare acknowledgement, Chinese Commerce Ministry officials on Thursday noted the impact of geopolitical tensions on foreign investment, including some companies’ decision to diversify away from China. They also pointed out that foreign-invested firms contribute to nearly 7% of employment and around 14% of taxes in the country.
Previously, official commentary from the Commerce Ministry about any drop in FDI tended to focus only on how most foreign businesses remained optimistic about long-term prospects in China.