Staff sort express deliveries at China Post’s Zaozhuang branch in east China’s Shandong province on November 10, 2024
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BEIJING — China’s Singles’ Day shopping festival saw consumers spend more than expected in what has otherwise been a tepid retail environment, consulting executives told CNBC.
The country’s version of Black Friday kicked off this year on Oct. 14, more than a week earlier than in 2023, and wrapped up Monday. Major e-commerce companies used to report gross merchandise value, an industry measure of sales over time, but did not for a third consecutive year amid weak consumer sentiment.
“I do think for many brands it probably will have turned out a bit better than they thought, but on a low level. Probably nobody would say we hit it out of the ballpark,” said Chris Reitermann, CEO of Ogilvy APAC and Greater China. He is also president of WPP China.
Many multinational corporations that sell consumer products in China are more cautious on the market, if not struggling, Reitermann said. But he pointed out many of the companies are still “very profitable” in the country, even if their growth has slowed to the low single digits, instead of high double digits.
For this year’s Singles Day, Alibaba claimed “robust growth” in GMV and a “record number of active buyers,” while JD.com said the number of shoppers on its platform rose by more than 20% year-over-year.
The shopping season that celebrates single people, also known as Double 11, came as the Chinese government has announced a series of stimulus measures since late September, fueling a stock market rally.
“There seems to be an uptick” in consumer sentiment over the last six weeks, said Daniel Zipser, senior partner at McKinsey and leader of its Asia Pacific consumer and retail division. It’s “hard to predict what that means going forward.”
Singles Day exceeded expectations for most brands, Zipser said. But rather than sales rising across the board, he pointed out pockets of growth in categories such as outdoors, pet care and “blind box” toys — in which consumers buy uniformly marked boxes for a chance at winning a new collectible.
He noted that the blind box category is one that went from $0 before Covid-19 to an industry more than $2 billion in size, reflecting the potential speed of consumer adoption in China.
China’s retail sales for October are expected to have risen by 3.8% from a year ago, according to a Reuters poll. That would be an improvement from 3.2% growth in September.
“We saw people spending more this year,” Jacob Cooke, co-founder and CEO of WPIC Marketing + Technologies, told CNBC on Tuesday. The company helps foreign brands — such as Vitamix and IS Clinical — sell online in China and other parts of Asia.
He estimated 16% growth in GMV for the shopping festival from last year, in likely the strongest performance in years. Cooke added that brands didn’t have to cut prices as much.
Research firm Syntun said Tuesday it estimated 20.1% year-on-year growth in sales over the Singles Day period to 1.11 trillion ($150 billion) for Alibaba’s Tmall, JD.com and PDD.
Investors could get more details on China consumption later this week. JD.com is scheduled to release quarterly results Thursday, followed by Alibaba on Friday.
“We’ve seen consumers who have, if you will, save for a rainy day, and they’ve purchased on this Double 11 shopping festival,” Deborah Weinswig, founder and CEO of Coresight Research, said Tuesday on CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia.”
She said the company’s weekly survey has indicated some “differences” in consumer sentiment over the last month.
Hopes for a recovery in 2025
China’s consumer spending has come under pressure since the Covid-19 pandemic as households grapple with economic uncertainty. A real estate slump has cut into household wealth, while economic growth has slowed.
While premium or mid-tier brands are “disappearing very fast,” higher-end brands such as Lululemon can do well, Reitermann said. He noted generally that local brands are often lower-priced and able to go to market faster.
He expects some rebound in consumer confidence in the second half of next year, after additional stimulus is likely announced in the first half.
China’s Ministry of Finance last week indicated more fiscal support could come in 2025. While China did not hand out cash to consumers during the pandemic, this year, the country did roll out a trade-in program to subsidize a portion of car and home appliance purchases.
Check out the companies making headlines before the bell. Warner Bros. Discovery – Shares jumped nearly 9% after Warner said it will split into two publicly traded companies by next year. One company will host WBD’s streaming services and movie properties, while the other will include its cable networks such as CNN and TNT Sports. Tesla – Shares of the electric vehicle maker dropped about 2% after Baird downgraded the stock to neutral from buy. The firm said that CEO Elon Musk’s comments on robotaxi plans are “a bit too optimistic” and that Musk’s relationship to President Donald Trump adds “considerable uncertainty.” EchoStar – Shares tumbled 11% after the Wall Street Journal, citing people familiar, said the telecommunications company is considering filing for bankruptcy under chapter 11 . The company is trying to protect its wireless spectrum licenses that are under review by the Federal Communications Commission, the report said. Robinhood , Applovin – Shares of Robinhood and Applovin each fell about 4% after neither name was added to the S & P 500 on Friday, as both names were considered possible candidates for inclusion in the index . Robinhood soared more than 13% last week leading up to the rebalance announcement, while Applovin advanced more than 6%. IonQ – The quantum computing stock gained more than 7% after the company announced that it’s agreed to acquire Oxford Ionics in a deal valued at $1.075 billion in cash and stock. The deal is expected to close in 2025. McDonald’s – The fast-food chain’s stock slipped nearly 1% on the heels of a Morgan Stanley downgrade to equal weight from overweight. Morgan Stanley said the company hasn’t been insulated from pressures on the fast food sector. Moelis & Co. – Shares were marginally lower. On Monday, The Wall Street Journal reported that CEO Ken Moelis is planning to step down from the role at the investment bank. He said in an interview that he’s expected to become executive chairman, effective Oct. 1. Co-president Navid Mahmoodzadegan is slated to become CEO, the report said. — CNBC’s Alex Harring, Fred Imbert and Sarah Min contributed reporting.
People wait in line for T-shirts at a pop-up kiosk for the online brokerage Robinhood along Wall Street after the company went public with an initial public offering earlier in the day on July 29, 2021 in New York City.
Spencer Platt | Getty Images
Robinhood shares sold off on Monday as the online brokerage was snubbed in the latest quarterly rebalance of the S&P 500 Index after months of speculation that it could earn a coveted spot in the benchmark.
Shares of Robinhood dropped nearly 5% in premarket trading. The stock has rallied 3.3% Friday to bring last week’s gain to over 13% before the S&P Dow Jones Indices said after the bell that the S&P 500 would remain unchanged.
Just last week, Bank of America called Robinhood a top candidate to join the S&P 500 during the big reshuffling in June. The S&P 500 rebalance, which typically comes on the third Friday of the last month in a quarter, is usually an impactful event as it can spark billions of dollars of trading and spur passive funds to snap up its shares. Companies being added to the index can generally expect funds like that to buy huge amounts of their shares in the coming weeks.
Crypto exchange Coinbase was the latest beneficiary of such an inclusion. The stock skyrocketed 24% in the next trading session following the announcement last month.
Still, Robinhood has had a major comeback this year so far with shares doubling in price. The online brokerage’s shares hit a fresh record high last week amid a rebound in both stocks and crypto. The company had fallen out of favor after the GameStop trading mania of 2021 fizzled and the collapse of FTX triggered a sell-off in digital assets.
LONDON — Britain’s financial services watchdog on Monday announced a new tie-up with U.S. chipmaker Nvidia to let banks safely experiment with artificial intelligence.
The Financial Conduct Authority said it will launch a so-called Supercharged Sandbox that will “give firms access to better data, technical expertise and regulatory support to speed up innovation.”
Starting from October, financial services institutions in the U.K. will be allowed to experiment with AI using Nvidia’s accelerated computing and AI Enterprise Software products, the watchdog said in a press release.
The initiative is designed for firms in the “discovery and experiment phase” with AI, the FCA noted, adding that a separate live testing service exists for firms further along in AI development.
“This collaboration will help those that want to test AI ideas but who lack the capabilities to do so,” Jessica Rusu, the FCA’s chief data, intelligence and information officer, said in a statement. “We’ll help firms harness AI to benefit our markets and consumers, while supporting economic growth.”
The FCA’s new sandbox addresses a key issue for banks, which have faced challenges shipping advanced new AI tools to their customers amid concerns over risks around privacy and fraud.
Large language models from the likes of OpenAI and Google send data back to overseas facilities — and privacy regulators have raised the alarm over how this information is stored and processed. There have meanwhile been several instances of malicious actors using generative AI to scam people.
Nvidia is behind the graphics processing units, or GPUs, used to train and run powerful AI models. The company’s CEO, Jensen Huang, is expected to give a keynote talk at a tech conference in London on Monday morning.
Last year, HSBC’s generative AI lead, Edward Achtner, told a London tech conference he sees “a lot of success theater” in finance when it comes to artificial intelligence — hinting that some financial services firms are touting advances in AI without tangible product innovations to show for it.
He added that, while banks like HSBC have used AI for many years, new generative AI tools like OpenAI’s ChatGPT come with their own unique compliance risks.