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China’s property woes and U.S. sanctions have hit some cities hard

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BEIJING — China’s property struggles and U.S. sanctions have significantly affected some of its cities, even as others benefit from Beijing’s tech push, Milken Institute’s best performing cities China index showed Tuesday.

Since 2015, the index has studied China’s large- and mid-sized cities for their economic vibrancy and growth prospects. The latest version generally compares data for 2023 with that of 2021. Last year, the institute did not publish a report due to a reassessment of its methodology.

Hangzhou, capital of the eastern Zhejiang province and home to Alibaba and other tech companies, ranked first in this year’s rankings.

While other cities, such as Zhuhai, once a “rising star,” dropped in the rankings due to the slump in real estate.

The city, in the southern province of Guangdong near Hong Kong, fell 32 places from the previous index published in 2022 to 157th place.” Suddenly no one bought houses.

Builders didn’t have much money to complete their projects,” Perry Wong, managing director of research at the institute, told reporters in Mandarin, translated by CNBC.

Property and related sectors once accounted for more than a quarter of China’s gross domestic product. But in 2020, Chinese authorities started cracking down on real estate developers’ high reliance on debt.

Wong added that real estate dragged down growth for several of the main cities in that region, except for Dongguan. The city of factories, home to Huawei’s sprawling European-style campus, was instead hit by U.S. sanctions. Dongguan dropped 15 places in the Milken index rankings to 199th place.

There are 217 cities in the index. While the nearby metropolis of Shenzhen went up in rankings, the city landed in 9th place, behind Beijing. A majority of the Chinese companies initially blacklisted by the U.S. were based in Shenzhen or Beijing, Wong pointed out in an interview with CNBC.

“Zhuhai is an extremely good place to do service jobs, to do even production jobs, high-end production jobs in biotech,” he said. “So [excluding the real estate impact] it should have a pretty promising future.”

Another city affected by the geopolitical drag on exports is Zhengzhou, capital of the Henan province and home to iPhone manufacturer Foxconn. Zhengzhou fell to 22nd place, down from 3rd.

Historically, Wong pointed out, having control of Zhengzhou, Hefei, and Wuhan have been critical to ensuring control of the country.

From an economic perspective, Hefei, in the Anhui province, and Wuhan, in Central China’s Hubei province, fared better in the latest index.

Wuhan surged by nearly 30 places to second, while Hefei remained among the top ten. Wong attributed this to Wuhan’s efforts to keep factories running during the pandemic, allowing the city to rebound quickly, while a university in Hefei received direct government support for technological development.

As for Hangzhou’s success, the institute’s research pointed to the city’s growth as a hub for e-commerce, manufacturing and finance.

But asked on CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” if Hangzhou’s success could be replicated, Wong said it would be difficult, partly due to the outperformance of the local property sector that’s increased living costs.

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ALL, WBA, DAL, WBD and more

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January 10, 2025

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If you are 60 years old, new 401(k) rules could save you money

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January 10, 2025

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Stock Trader’s Almanac editor-in-chief Jeffrey Hirsch gives his 2025 expectations for the stock market on ‘Making Money.’ 

They say you get better as you get older. This might just be true for 401(k) plans in 2025 for those striding into their golden years. Planning for retirement just got a significant boost for Americans aged 60 to 63, thanks to provisions in the SECURE Act 2.0.  

Beginning in 2025, individuals in this age group will be eligible for something called a “super catch-up” contribution limit for employer-sponsored retirement plans, including 401(k)s. This exciting change, recently clarified by the IRS, provides a unique opportunity to accelerate your retirement savings during those crucial pre-retirement years. 

The basics: Catch-up contributions 

Catch-up contributions allow individuals aged 50 and older to save extra money for retirement beyond the standard contribution limits. For 2024, the catch-up contribution limit was $7,500, on top of the $22,500 annual contribution cap for 401(k)s and similar plans. These additional contributions are designed to help older workers close any retirement savings gaps they may have accumulated over the years. 

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Introducing the super catch-up 

Under the SECURE Act 2.0, individuals aged 60, 61, 62, and 63 can contribute even more to their retirement accounts starting in 2025. The new “super catch-up” limit will be the greater of $10,000 or 150% of the regular catch-up contribution limit for the given year, adjusted annually for inflation. At 64, you go to the regular catch-up. 

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401(k)s just got a little better for those who are aged 60-63, thanks to new catch-up provisions. (Reuters)

For example, if the regular catch-up contribution in 2025 remains at $7,500, the super catch-up limit would increase to $11,250 (150% of $7,500). If the $10,000 floor is adjusted for inflation, it could rise even higher, allowing individuals to add substantially more to their retirement savings. 

Why is this important? 

This enhancement comes at a pivotal time for many individuals. Those in their early 60s often find themselves at the peak of their earning potential, with more disposable income available for saving. At the same time, they are rapidly approaching retirement and may feel pressure to bolster their nest eggs. The super catch-up offers a golden opportunity to bridge any shortfalls and strengthen their financial security. 

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Additionally, this provision aligns with the reality that many Americans are living longer. Increasing retirement savings can help ensure a more comfortable and secure retirement in the face of rising healthcare costs, inflation, and other financial challenges. 

Key considerations 

To take full advantage of the super catch-up, it’s essential to plan strategically: 

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  1. Evaluate Your Budget: Ensure you have the financial flexibility to maximize contributions. Cutting unnecessary expenses or reallocating resources may be necessary.
  2. Consult a Financial Advisor: Professional guidance can help optimize your savings strategy, factoring in tax implications and long-term goals. One good place to start is at Exit Wealth to learn more about this technique.
  3. Understand Tax Implications: Contributions to traditional 401(k)s are tax-deferred, reducing your taxable income now but subject to taxes during retirement withdrawals. Consider how this fits into your overall tax strategy and whether the regular 401(k) or the Roth 401(k) make more sense for your situation.
  4. Stay Informed: Keep an eye on annual IRS updates regarding contribution limits and inflation adjustments.

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The super catch-up offers a golden opportunity to bridge any shortfalls and strengthen their financial security. 

A new era of retirement savings 

The super catch-up contribution is a testament to the growing focus on enhancing retirement readiness for Americans. By leveraging this opportunity, individuals aged 60 to 63 can significantly boost their retirement savings, potentially lower their overall tax liability, and provide greater peace of mind as they transition into their golden years. 

If you’re approaching this age bracket, now is the time to review your retirement strategy and prepare to make the most of this exciting new provision. Retirement is a journey, and with the super catch-up, you can ensure yours is as secure and fulfilling as possible. 

Ted Jenkin is president of Exit Stage Left Advisors and partner at Exit Wealth.

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Insurance stocks sell off sharply as potential losses tied to LA wildfires increase

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7 hours ago

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January 10, 2025

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In this aerial view taken from a helicopter, the Kenneth fire (below) approaches homes while the back side of the Palisade fire (above) continues to burn Los Angeles county, California on January 9, 2025. 

Josh Edelson | Afp | Getty Images

Insurers exposed to the California homeowners’ market sold off sharply Friday as the devastation caused by the Los Angeles wildfires spread.

Shares of Allstate and Chubb both declined 4% in morning trading, while AIG and Travelers fell about 2% each. These four stocks were among the biggest losers in the S&P 500 Friday morning.

AllState, Chubb and Travelers are the most exposed carriers to insured losses in the wildfires, according to JPMorgan. The Wall Street firm noted that Chubb could have a particularly high exposure due to its high-net-worth focus in the region.

Shares of insurers drop Friday

The destructive fires this week could become the most costly in California history. The insured losses from this week’s fires may exceed $20 billion, and the estimate could be even higher if fires spread, the JPMorgan estimated Thursday. Those losses would far surpass the $12.5 billion in insured damages from the 2018 Camp Fire, which was the costliest blaze in the nation’s history, according to data from Aon.

Moody’s Ratings expected insured losses to run well into billions of dollars given the area’s high values of homes and businesses in the affected areas.

The Palisades Fire is the largest of the five blazes. It has burned more than 17,000 acres, destroying over 1,000 structures, according to California authorities. Pacific Palisades is an affluent area where the median home price is more than $3 million, according to JPMorgan.

Insurance companies have asked Southern California Edison to preserve evidence related to the devastating wildfires that have swept Los Angeles, according to a company filing to regulators.

Certain reinsurers were also affected. Arch Capital Group and RenaissanceRe Holdings declined 2% and 1.5% Friday, respectively. JPMorgan believes that rising loss estimates increase the likelihood of reinsurance attachments at various insurers being breached.

— CNBC’s Spencer Kimball contributed reporting.

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