Bernstein is looking at Chinese internet tech stocks like it’s the downtrodden days of Covid-19. “For all the justified consternation around geopolitics and trade headwinds, we think the mantra of ‘fade sentiment extremes’ still applies,” Bernstein China internet analyst Robin Zhu and a team said in an April 14 report. “Several of the other conditions that marked prior bottoms in the China internet sector now apply again,” they said, pointing out that valuation multiples have mostly fallen back to the lows seen in the 2021 to 2023 period. Tighter government regulation on Chinese internet businesses and the Shanghai lockdown in 2022 had weighed heavily on investor sentiment. But as Beijing ramped up its stimulus announcements in recent months and signaled more private sector support — especially with the advent of DeepSeek’s artificial intelligence breakthrough — Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index broke a four-year losing streak in 2024 and kicked off 2025 with a strong start. “Looking across global markets, we can’t help but feel the rate of regulatory change Stateside feels mildly reminiscent of China in 2021,” the Bernstein analysts said, noting China’s current policy stance now appears more predictable in contrast. “Within our [China internet] coverage, video gaming feels like the sector most insulated from trade and macro headwinds, while digital ads might even be benefitting from merchants pivoting to selling domestically,” the Bernstein report said, highlighting two sweet spots for social media and gaming giant Tencent . U.S.-China trade tensions escalated into an essential standoff over the last two weeks, while uncertainty has grown over whether major Chinese companies will need to delist from U.S. exchanges. The Hang Seng curtailed its earlier 2025 gains and is up nearly 7% this year as of Thursday’s close. The market was closed Friday for a holiday. Tencent, the largest Hong Kong-listed company by market cap, remains Bernstein’s top pick in the China Internet sector. The tech company trades at 13.5 times estimated 2026 earnings, which the analysts pointed out is not far from the bottom of a recent range, before investors started buying the stock on expectations it can benefit from generative AI. The firm rates Tencent overweight with a 640 Hong Kong dollar price target — for expected upside of nearly 40% from Thursday’s close. Bernstein also rates Chinese gaming company NetEase overweight, with a $125 price target, or nearly 27% upside from Thursday’s close. The stock is listed in both the U.S. and Hong Kong. China approved 362 new games in the first quarter, almost recovering to 2020 levels, Bernstein analysis showed. Beijing had temporarily halted new game approvals in the interim while trying to restrict minors from playing games for too many hours each week. Major Chinese companies’ digital ads revenue has been growing by at least 10% year on year in recent quarters, the Bernstein analysts said. For Tencent in particular, they expect the company can benefit from Chinese merchants needing to compete more in the domestic market due to high U.S. tariffs. “Our channel checks with advertisers have pointed to improvements in AI and ad tech driving clear upside in ad [return on investment] across Tencent’s properties,” the Bernstein analysts said, pointing to the Chinese company’s Miaosi ad creation platform and increased ads on short videos hosted within Tencent’s ubiquitous WeChat social media and messaging app. Part of the Chinese government’s efforts to support local exporters is to assist them with selling products once destined for the U.S. to Chinese market instead. China reported first-quarter gross domestic product growth last week of 5.4% , above expectations. Economists meanwhile have started cutting targets — with UBS down to a forecast of just 3.4% for the year, versus China’s official target of around 5%. “While pressure from US-China trade issues poses clear risks for the Chinese economy, the 100-200bps of top-down slowdown most analysis we’ve read do not point to some kind of economic apocalypse,” the Bernstein analysts said. “On the local services front, Meituan’s forward guidance remained robust, pointing to mid-20% [gross transaction value] growth (higher than Q4 levels), and slightly lower growth in revenues,” the Bernstein analysts said of the food-delivery giant, which is listed in Hong Kong. The firm rates the stock overweight and has a price target of 200 HKD, or 46.5% upside from Thursday’s close. Bernstein also has overweight ratings on Alibaba and JD.com , which have shares listed in both the U.S. and Hong Kong. Their only China internet stock pick that doesn’t have a Hong Kong listing yet is Temu’s parent PDD. Chinese companies listed in the U.S. have started offering shares in Hong Kong in the last several years as worries increased about a potential forced delisting from New York exchanges. The concerns picked up again after the White House in late February said it would review U.S. investments in Chinese companies. And when asked by Fox Business on April 9 about a potential delisting, U.S. Treasury Scott Bessent said, ” Everything’s on the table .” The Bernstein analysts pointed out that investors have recently preferred Hong Kong stocks that are also accessible from mainland China via the “Southbound” stock connect, and avoided U.S.-listed Chinese companies that may find it difficult to list in Hong Kong. They expect PDD may already be seeking a deal of some kind to mitigate the business impact of any increased U.S. restrictions. — CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.
Check out the companies making the biggest moves midday: Petco Health — The retailer slumped 22% after losing 4 cents per share in the fiscal first quarter, twice the 2-cent loss that analysts had estimated, based on FactSet data. Revenue of $1.49 billion missed the Street’s $1.50 billion consensus, while same-store sales dropped 1.3%, worse than the 0.6% decline forecast by analysts. Tesla — The EV maker added more than 6%, a day after plunging 14% as CEO Elon Musk and President Donald Trump publicly feuded . Broadcom — Shares of the chipmaker dipped 2.7% on lackluster free cash flow for the second quarter. Broadcom reported free cash flow of $6.41 billion. Analysts surveyed by FactSet were looking for $6.98 billion. Still, several analysts covering the stock raised their price targets. ABM Industries — Shares fell 11% after the facilities management company reported mixed results for its second quarter. Its adjusted earnings of 86 per share was in line with expectations, while its revenue of $2.11 billion topped the FactSet consensus estimate of $2.06 billion. ABM Industries also reiterated its earnings guidance for the year. Circle Internet Group — The stablecoin company popped 38%, following its Thursday debut on the New York Stock Exchange. Circle soared 168% in its first day of trading . Lululemon — The athleisure company pulled back 20% after its second-quarter outlook missed analyst estimates. CFO Meghan Frank also said on a call that Lululemon plans on taking “strategic price increases, looking item by item across our assortment” to mitigate the impact of higher tariffs. G-III Apparel Group — The apparel company tumbled 15% on much weaker-than-expected earnings guidance for the second quarter. The company sees earnings per share in a range of 2 cents to 12 cents. Analysts had estimated earnings of around 48 cents per share, according to FactSet. DocuSign — The electronic signature stock plunged 19% after the company cut its full-year billings forecast. Billings for the fiscal first quarter also came in lower than expected. Braze — Shares of the customer engagement platforms provider fell 13% on disappointing guidance. Braze guided for second-quarter adjusted earnings of 2 to 3 cents per share. Analysts polled by FactSet called for 9 cents per share. Its first-quarter results beat estimates. Quanex Building Products — The maker of windows and doors and other construction materials soared 18%, the most since September, after earning an adjusted 60 cents per share in its fiscal second quarter versus analysts’ consensus estimate of 47 cents, on revenue of $452 million against the Street’s $439 million, FactSet data showed. Adjusted EBITDA also topped forecasts. Samsara — Shares shed 5% after the software company projected revenue growth to slow. Samsara guided for second-quarter revenue to increase between $371 million and $373 million, up from the $367 million in the first quarter. That would be a slowdown on both a sequential and year-over-year basis. Solaris Energy Infrastructure — The oil and natural gas equipment and service provider rallied 10% after Barclays initiated research coverage with an overweight rating and $42 price target. “Solaris is the leader in distributed power with almost 2 GW of capacity to be added by 2027 with 67% allocated towards data centers on long term contracts,” the bank said.
A sign in German that reads “part of the UBS group” in Basel on May 5, 2025.
Fabrice Coffrini | AFP | Getty Images
The Swiss government on Friday proposed strict new capital rules that would require banking giant UBS to hold an additional $26 billion in core capital, following its 2023 takeover of stricken rival Credit Suisse.
The measures would also mean that UBS will need to fully capitalize its foreign units and carry out fewer share buybacks.
“The rise in the going-concern requirement needs to be met with up to USD 26 billion of CET1 capital, to allow the AT1 bond holdings to be reduced by around USD 8 billion,” the government said in a Friday statement, referring to UBS’ holding of Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bonds.
The Swiss National Bank said it supported the measures from the government as they will “significantly strengthen” UBS’ resilience.
“As well as reducing the likelihood of a large systemically important bank such as UBS getting into financial distress, this measure also increases a bank’s room for manoeuvre to stabilise itself in a crisis through its own efforts. This makes it less likely that UBS has to be bailed out by the government in the event of a crisis,” SNB said in a Friday statement.
‘Too big to fail’
UBS has been battling the specter of tighter capital rules since acquiring the country’s second-largest bank at a cut-price following years of strategic errors, mismanagement and scandals at Credit Suisse.
The shock demise of the banking giant also brought Swiss financial regulator FINMA under fire for its perceived scarce supervision of the bank and the ultimate timing of its intervention.
Swiss regulators argue that UBS must have stronger capital requirements to safeguard the national economy and financial system, given the bank’s balance topped $1.7 trillion in 2023, roughly double the projected Swiss economic output of last year. UBS insists it is not “too big to fail” and that the additional capital requirements — set to drain its cash liquidity — will impact the bank’s competitiveness.
At the heart of the standoff are pressing concerns over UBS’ ability to buffer any prospective losses at its foreign units, where it has, until now, had the duty to back 60% of capital with capital at the parent bank.
Higher capital requirements can whittle down a bank’s balance sheet and credit supply by bolstering a lender’s funding costs and choking off their willingness to lend — as well as waning their appetite for risk. For shareholders, of note will be the potential impact on discretionary funds available for distribution, including dividends, share buybacks and bonus payments.
“While winding down Credit Suisse’s legacy businesses should free up capital and reduce costs for UBS, much of these gains could be absorbed by stricter regulatory demands,” Johann Scholtz, senior equity analyst at Morningstar, said in a note preceding the FINMA announcement.
“Such measures may place UBS’s capital requirements well above those faced by rivals in the United States, putting pressure on returns and reducing prospects for narrowing its long-term valuation gap. Even its long-standing premium rating relative to the European banking sector has recently evaporated.”
The prospect of stringent Swiss capital rules and UBS’ extensive U.S. presence through its core global wealth management division comes as White House trade tariffs already weigh on the bank’s fortunes. In a dramatic twist, the bank lost its crown as continental Europe’s most valuable lender by market capitalization to Spanish giant Santander in mid-April.
Check out the companies making the biggest moves in premarket trading: Tesla —The EV maker added nearly 5%, a day after plunging 14% as CEO Elon Musk and President Donald Trump publicly feuded . Broadcom — Shares of the chipmaker slipped about 2% before the opening bell, on the heels of lackluster free cash flow in the second quarter. Broadcom reported free cash flow of $6.41 billion, while analysts surveyed by FactSet were looking for $6.98 billion. Broadcom stock has risen more than 12% year to date. Circle Internet Group — The stablecoin company popped nearly 14%, following its debut on the New York Stock Exchange Thursday. Circle soared 168% in its first day of trading . Lululemon — Stock in the athleisure company pulled back nearly 20% after its second-quarter outlook missed analyst estimates. Lululemon forecast earnings per share in the current quarter in the range of $2.85 to $2.90 per share, while analysts polled by LSEG were looking for $3.29. The firm also slashed its earnings outlook for the full year. DocuSign — The electronic signature stock plunged 19%. Despite beating Wall Street expectations on both lines for the first quarter, billings came in lower than anticipated, per FactSet. DocuSign also set current-quarter guidance for billings that was below analysts’ consensus forecast. Braze — Shares of the customer engagement platforms provider fell 6% following the company’s disappointing guidance. Braze guided for second-quarter adjusted earnings between 2 cents and 3 cents per share, while analysts polled by FactSet called for 9 cents per share. Its first-quarter results beat estimates. Samsara — Shares shed 12% after the software company projected revenue growth to slow. Samsara guided for second-quarter revenue to increase between $371 million and $373 million, up from the $367 million in the first quarter. That would be a slowdown on both a sequential and year-over-year basis. Rubrik — The stock gained about 4% following the cloud data management company’s top and bottom line beats for its first quarter. Rubrik lost an adjusted 15 cents per share, narrower than the 32 cent loss expected from analysts polled by FactSet. Revenue was $278.5 million, versus the $260.4 million consensus estimate. —CNBC’s Alex Harring and Brian Evans contributed reporting.