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Most people believe in the value of college and, for the most part, institutions of higher education have been able to weather significant financial challenges throughout history.
But now, the number of colleges set to close in the next five years is expected to spike, a new study found.
Higher education, as a whole, is “facing serious financial headwinds, both due to long-term trends and to the post-pandemic recovery,” according to a working paper by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
“Colleges and universities are facing unprecedented fiscal challenges in today’s economic climate,” the Fed researchers wrote.
At least 20 colleges closed in 2024, and another nine schools announced they will close in 2025, according to the latest tally by Implan, an economic software and analysis company.
In the worst-case scenario, as many as 80 additional colleges would shut from 2025 to 2029, the Fed analysis found.
College enrollment is down
Not only are fewer high schoolers enrolling in college immediately after graduation but the overall population of college-age students is also shrinking, a trend experts refer to as the “enrollment cliff.”
“One key challenge is declines in enrollment, as the number of students enrolled in degree-granting colleges and universities fell by 15% from 2010 to 2021,” the Fed researchers said.
These days, only about 62% of high school seniors in the U.S. immediately go on to college, down from 68% in 2010, government data shows. Those that opt out are often low-income students, who increasingly feel priced out of a postsecondary education.
As the sticker price at some private colleges nears six figures a year, students have increasingly sought alternatives to a four-year degree, such as joining the workforce or completing certificate programs or apprenticeships.
Ballooning costs have played a large role in a changing mindset, according to Candi Clouse, a vice president at Implan.
“They don’t want to have the student loan debt,” she said.
Experts had also warned that problems with the rollout of last year’s Free Application for Federal Student Aid form would result in fewer students applying for financial aid, which could contribute to declining enrollment.
A wave of colleges in financial crisis
Growing competition for fewer students, higher operating costs and state-imposed restrictions on tuition increases for public colleges have limited institutions’ ability to increase tuition revenue, the Fed report found.
That has left some colleges and universities in a severe financial distress, according Implan’s Clouse.
“We see the decline in national birthrates, rising cost of education and rising cost of operations,” she said. “We see colleges being right-sized.”
At a local level, these closures can be devastating, Clouse added.
“When a school closes, many people are left scrambling,” she said.
On average, each college or university that shuts down affects 265 jobs and $14 million in labor income, according to Implan’s calculations.
“It can be huge for these small cities when they are reliant on an institution that has likely been there for generations,” Clouse said.
During the pandemic, federal funding provided a temporary stopgap for cash-strapped colleges. In the years since, there has been a wave of schools declaring “financial exigency,” according to the Fed.
To stay afloat, some colleges have cut faculty and slashed areas of academic study, including programs in sociology, creative writing, music and religion.
Not all schools are struggling, however. In fact, the country’s most elite institutions are faring better than ever.
College applications are up
Overall, total application volume through Nov. 1 rose 10% for the 2024-25 application season, compared to a year earlier, according to the latest data from the Common Application, although a growing share of applicants only applied to public schools.
Private college is becoming a path for only those with the means to pay for it, other reports show.
Children from families in the top 1% are more than twice as likely to attend highly selective private colleges, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research, which continues to “amplify the persistence of privilege across generations,” the report found.
Meanwhile costs are still rising, tuition and fees plus room and board for a four-year private college averaged $58,600 in the 2024-25 school year, up from $56,390 a year earlier. At four-year, in-state public colleges, it was $24,920, up from $24,080, according to the College Board, which tracks trends in college pricing and student aid.
Rhetoric & Writing Studies Major, Adamary Garcia studies inside of the Perry-Castaneda Library at the University of Texas at Austin on February 22, 2024 in Austin, Texas.
Brandon Bell | Getty Images
If your federal student loans were forgiven in 2024, you may be wondering if there are any tax implications.
Many borrowers have benefited from education debt cancellation under the Biden administration. While in office so far, President Joe Biden has cleared nearly $180 billion in federal student loans for 4.9 million people. More than 1 million people had their debt cleared in 2024.
If you’ve had your debt excused last year, here’s what to know at tax time.
No federal taxes on relief through 2025
The American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 made student loan forgiveness tax-free at the federal level through the end of 2025, said higher education expert Mark Kantrowitz. That means you won’t owe anything to Uncle Sam on any federal education debt cleared throughout 2024.
It shouldn’t matter under what program the loans were forgiven, be it Public Service Loan Forgiveness, an income-driven repayment plan or Borrower Defense. The Biden administration has delivered most of its relief through one of those avenues.
(In case you aren’t familiar: PSLF leads to student debt erasure for certain public servants after a decade of qualifying payments. Meanwhile, IDR plans conclude in debt cancellation after a certain period of payments, typically 20 years or 25 years. And Borrower Defense wipes away the debt for students who’ve been defrauded by their schools.)
Even canceled private student debt shouldn’t trigger a federal tax bill thanks to the terms of the American Rescue Plan, said Carolina Rodriguez, director of the Education Debt Consumer Assistance Program, based in New York. That law is set to expire Dec. 31, 2025.
Despite the current federal policy on forgiven student debt, it’s possible a borrower could still face state taxes.
Currently, a handful of states tax certain kinds of student loan forgiveness, Kantrowitz said. That could be because their state tax code doesn’t conform to the federal one or hasn’t been updated to reflect the American Rescue Plan.
You’ll want to check with your state or a tax professional to learn if your relief triggers any liability.
Many states mirror their student loan forgiveness tax policy on the federal government. As a result, if the American Rescue Plan’s provision expires, more states could levy the forgiven debt again, too.
Bitcoin prices soared in 2024. But you may want to tread with caution before euphoria leads you on a hasty buying spree.
Bitcoin and other crypto should generally account for just a sliver of investor portfolios — generally no more than 5% — due to its extreme volatility, according to financial experts.
Some investors may be wise to stay away from it altogether, they said.
“You’re not going to have the same size allocation in bitcoin as you would Nasdaq or the S&P 500,” said Ivory Johnson, a certified financial planner and founder of Delancey Wealth Management, based in Washington, D.C.
“Whenever you have a real volatile asset class, you need less of it in the portfolio to have the same impact” as traditional assets like stocks and bonds, said Johnson, a member of the CNBC Financial Advisor Council.
Why bitcoin prices increased in 2024
Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency, was the top-performing investment of 2024, by a long shot. Prices surged about 125%, ending the year around $94,000 after starting in the $40,000 range.
By comparison, the S&P 500, a U.S. stock index, rose 23%. The Nasdaq, a tech-heavy stock index, grew 29%.
Prices popped after Donald Trump’s U.S. presidential election win. His administration is expected to embrace deregulatory policies that would spur crypto demand.
A cartoon image of President-elect Donald Trump holding a bitcoin token in Hong Kong, China, on Dec. 5, 2024, to mark the cryptocurrency reaching over $100,000.
Justin Chin/Bloomberg via Getty Images
Last year, the Securities and Exchange Commission also — for the first time — approved exchange-traded funds that invest directly in bitcoin and ether, the second-largest cryptocurrency, making crypto easier for retail investors to buy.
But experts cautioned that lofty profits may belie an underlying danger.
“With high returns come high risk, and crypto is no exception,” Amy Arnott, a portfolio strategist for Morningstar Research Services, wrote in June.
Bitcoin has been nearly five times as volatile as U.S. stocks since September 2015, and ether has been nearly 10 times as volatile, Arnott wrote.
“A portfolio weighting of 5% or less seems prudent, and many investors may want to skip cryptocurrency altogether,” she said.
1% to 2% is ‘reasonable’ for bitcoin, BlackRock says
Bitcoin lost 64% and 74% of its value in 2022 and 2018, respectively.
Mathematically, investors need a 100% return to recover from a 50% loss.
So far, crypto returns have been high enough to offset its additional risk — but it’s not a given that pattern will continue, Arnott said.
You’re not going to have the same size allocation in bitcoin as you would Nasdaq or the S&P 500.
Ivory Johnson
CFP, founder of Delancey Wealth Management
There are a few reasons for this: Crypto has become less valuable as a portfolio diversifier as it’s gotten more mainstream, Arnott wrote. Its popularity among speculative buyers also “makes it prone to pricing bubbles that will eventually burst,” she added.
BlackRock, a money manager, thinks there’s a case for owning bitcoin in a diversified portfolio, for investors who are comfortable with the “risk of potentially rapid price plunges” and who believe it will become more widely adopted, experts at the BlackRock Investment Institute wrote in early December.
(BlackRock offers a bitcoin ETF, the iShares Bitcoin Trust, IBIT.)
A 1% to 2% allocation to bitcoin is a “reasonable range,” BlackRock experts wrote.
Going beyond would “sharply increase” bitcoin’s share of a portfolio’s total risk, they said.
For example, a 2% bitcoin allocation accounts for roughly 5% of the risk of a traditional 60/40 portfolio, BlackRock estimated. But a 4% allocation swells that figure to 14% of total portfolio risk, it said.
More ‘speculation’ than investment?
By comparison, Vanguard, another asset manager, doesn’t currently have plans to launch a crypto ETF or offer one on its brokerage platform, officials said.
“In Vanguard’s view, crypto is more of a speculation than an investment,” Janel Jackson, Vanguard’s former global head of ETF Capital Markets and Broker & Index Relations, wrote in January 2024.
Stock investors own shares of companies that produce goods or services, and many investors get dividends; bond investors receive regular interest payments; and commodities are real assets that meet consumption needs, Jackson wrote.
“While crypto has been classified as a commodity, it’s an immature asset class that has little history, no inherent economic value, no cash flow, and can create havoc within a portfolio,” wrote Jackson, now an executive in the firm’s Financial Advisor Services unit.
Dollar-cost average and hold for the long term
Ultimately, one’s total crypto allocation is a function of an investor’s appetite for and ability to take risk, according to financial advisors.
“Younger, more aggressive investors might allocate more [crypto] to their portfolios,” said Douglas Boneparth, a CFP based in New York and member of CNBC’s Advisor Council.
Investors generally hold about 5% of their classic 80/20 or 60/40 portfolio in crypto, said Boneparth, president and founder of Bone Fide Wealth.
“I think it could be a good idea to have some exposure to bitcoin in your portfolio, but it’s not for everyone and it will remain volatile,” Boneparth said. “As far as other cryptocurrencies are concerned, it’s difficult to pinpoint which ones are poised to be a good long-term investment. That’s not to say there won’t be winners.”
Investors who want to buy into crypto should consider using a dollar-cost-averaging strategy, said Johnson, of Delancey Wealth Management.
“I buy 1% at a time until I get to my target risk,” Johnson said. “And that way I’m not putting 3%, 4%, 5% at one time and then something happens where it drops precipitously.”
It’d also be prudent for investors interested in crypto to buy and hold it for the long term, as they would with other financial assets, Johnson said.
Morningstar suggests holding cryptocurrency for at least 10 years, Arnott wrote.
This year, participating states include Alaska, Arizona, California, Connecticut, Florida, Idaho, Illinois, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Washington state, Wisconsin and Wyoming.
Meanwhile, IRS Free File, which offers free guided tax prep through software partners, opened on Jan. 10. Eligible taxpayers can electronically file returns prepared via Free File partners starting on Jan. 27.