Connect with us

Economics

Consumer prices rose 3.5% from a year ago in March

Published

on

Consumer prices rose 3.5% from a year ago in March, more than expected

The consumer price index accelerated at a faster-than-expected pace in March, pushing inflation higher and likely dashing hopes that the Federal Reserve will be able to cut interest rates anytime soon.

The CPI, a broad measure of goods and services costs across the economy, rose 0.4% for the month, putting the 12-month inflation rate at 3.5%, or 0.3 percentage point higher than in February, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for a 0.3% gain and a 3.4% year-over-year level.

Excluding volatile food and energy components, core CPI also accelerated 0.4% on a monthly basis while rising 3.8% from a year ago, compared with respective estimates for 0.3% and 3.7%.

Stocks slumped after the report while Treasury yields spiked higher.

Shelter and energy costs drove the increase on the all-items index.

Energy rose 1.1% after climbing 2.3% in February, while shelter costs, which make up about one-third of the weighting in the CPI, were higher by 0.4% on the month and up 5.7% from a year ago. Expectations for shelter-related costs to decelerate through the year have been central to the Fed’s thesis that inflation will cool enough to allow for interest rate cuts.

Food prices increased just 0.1% on the month and were up 2.2% on a year-over-year basis. There were some big gains within the food category, however.

The measure for meat, fish, poultry and eggs climbed 0.9%, pushed by a 4.6% jump in egg prices. Butter fell 5% and cereal and bakery products declined by 0.9%. Food away from home increased 0.3%.

Elsewhere, used vehicle prices fell 1.1% and medical care services prices rose 0.6%.

Increasing inflation was also bad news for workers, as real average hourly earnings were flat on the month and increased just 0.6% over the past year, according to a separate BLS release.

The report comes with markets on edge and Fed officials expressing caution about the near-term direction for monetary policy. Central bank policymakers have repeatedly called for patience on cutting rates, saying they have not seen enough evidence that inflation is on a solid path back to their 2% annual goal. The March report likely confirmed worries that inflation is stickier than expected.

Markets had expected the Fed to start cutting interest rates in June with three reductions in total expected this year, but that shifted dramatically following the release. Traders in the fed funds futures market pushed expectations for the first cut out to September, according to CME Group calculations.

“There’s not much you can point to that this is going to result in a shift away from the hawkish bent” from Fed officials, said Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab. “June to me is definitely off the table.”

The Fed also expects services inflation to ease through the year, but that has shown to be stubborn as well. Excluding energy, the services index increased 0.5% in March and was at a 5.4% annual rate, inconsistent with the Fed’s target.

This marks the third consecutive strong reading and means that the stalled disinflationary narrative can no longer be called a blip,” said Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management. “In fact, even if inflation were to cool next month to a more comfortable reading, there is likely sufficient caution within the Fed now to mean that a July cut may also be a stretch, by which point the US election will begin to intrude with Fed decision making.”

Later Wednesday, the Fed will release minutes from its March meeting, providing more insight into where officials stand on monetary policy.

Multiple Fed officials in recent days have expressed skepticism about lowering rates. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic told CNBC that he expects just one cut this year, likely not coming until the fourth quarter. Governor Michelle Bowman said an increase may even be necessary if the data does not cooperate.

Don’t miss these stories from CNBC PRO:

Economics

British businesses pile on the pressure on U.K. Fin Min Reeves

Published

on

Rachel Reeves, UK chancellor of the exchequer, outside 11 Downing Street ahead of presenting her budget to parliament in London, UK, on Wednesday, Oct. 30, 2024. 

Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Home improvement retailer Kingfisher became the latest British company to report a negative impact from U.K. Finance Minister Rachel Reeves’ October budget — as she prepares her latest update on the state of the British economy.

In its annual earnings release on Tuesday, Kingfisher, which owns home improvement retailer B&Q, said the government’s policies had “raised costs for retailers and impacted consumer sentiment,” with sales of big-ticket items falling.

It is the latest in a line of British businesses that have criticized Reeves’ bumper tax-rising budget since autumn. The companies will now be keeping a close eye on Reeves’ Spring Statement, when she’s set to update lawmakers on her latest spending and taxation plans at 12:30 p.m. London time Wednesday.

Top on the businesses’ list of complaints is a higher employment cost after the government pledged in October to increase national insurance contributions from employers and raised the country’s “national living wage” by 6.7% from April 1.

On Sunday, Reeves defended the tax rises ahead of the Wednesday statement, telling Sky News the government “took the action that was necessary to ensure our public services and public finances were on a firm footing.”

However, a number of consumer-facing businesses have flagged concerns with the Labour government’s economic policies in their earnings reports this quarter. They include supermarket giant Tesco, which said its higher national insurance contributions could add up to £250 million ($324 million) to annual costs, while the chairman of pub chain JD Wetherspoon, Tim Martin, said the changes will cost every one of his pubs £1,500 per week. 

Regis Schultz, CEO of sportswear retailer JD Sports, said the policies mean it was tempting for businesses to reduce staff numbers and hours, “which will be bad news for the economy.” 

It comes as the U.K. battles economic sluggishness, rising prices and widespread uncertainty as a result of U.S. President Donald Trump’s global trade tariffs.

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), the country’s independent public finances watchdog, is reportedly expected to downgrade the U.K.’s growth forecasts for 2025 on Wednesday, halving its previous 2% estimate.

AB Foods, which owns budget fashion retailer Primark, blamed the Labour government’s budget as contributing to broader consumer weakness in the country. Finance Director Eoin Tonge told analysts that customers across its brands were cautious, citing “a shock and a fear, that’s driven people to pull in their horns.” That view was shared by clothing retailer Frasers Group, which said it saw weaker consumer confidence around the budget announcement. The company’s Chief Financial Officer Chris Wootton told Reuters the company “felt we’d been kicked in the face.”

The slew of negative corporate commentary is expected to pile pressure on Reeves ahead of her Spring Statement.

The British Retail Consortium has called on the government to “inject confidence into the economy,” warning that April’s rise in tax contributions and the minimum wage will generate £5 billion in additional costs for retailers, giving “many no option but to push prices up.”

The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) said Reeves “must inject business with a serious confidence boost” on Wednesday.

“As an immediate priority the government should re-commit to not raising the business tax burden further over the course of this Parliament,” Louise Hellem, chief economist of the CBI, said in a statement. “Setting an ambitious goal for R&D spending, making it easier to invest in skills and taking measures to reduce the regulatory burden on business would be encouraging moves that would show the government understood what business needs to see from them.”

Goldman Sachs Chief Equity Strategist Peter Oppenheimer meanwhile told CNBC on Monday that concerns over consumer and business confidence will see Reeves focus on cutting costs rather than raising taxes this week, but said the government’s focus on boosting growth was “a laudable objective, a difficult thing to do.”

CNBC has reached out to the U.K. Treasury for comment.

CNBC’s Holly Ellyatt contributed to this report.

Continue Reading

Economics

America’s Supreme Court tackles a thorny voting-rights case

Published

on

Louisiana v Callais, a case the Supreme Court heard on March 24th, contains a political puzzle. Why is the solidly Republican state defending a congressional map that cost the party a seat in 2024—and will likely keep that seat in Democratic hands after the 2026 midterms, when the fight to control the House of Representatives could be very close?

Continue Reading

Economics

Consumer confidence in where the economy is headed hits 12-year low

Published

on

Shoppers walk near a Nordstrom store at the Westfield UTC shopping center on Jan. 31, 2025 in San Diego, California.

Kevin Carter | Getty Images

Consumer confidence dimmed further in March as the view of future conditions fell to the lowest level in more than a decade, the Conference Board reported Tuesday.

The board’s monthly confidence index of current conditions slipped to 92.9, a 7.2-point decline and the fourth consecutive monthly contraction. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for a reading of 93.5.

However, the measure for future expectations told an even darker story, with the index tumbling 9.6 points to 65.2, the lowest reading in 12 years and well below the 80 level that is considered a signal for a recession ahead.

The index measures respondents’ outlook for income, business and job prospects.

“Consumers’ optimism about future income — which had held up quite strongly in the past few months — largely vanished, suggesting worries about the economy and labor market have started to spread into consumers’ assessments of their personal situations,” said Stephanie Guichard, senior economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board.

The survey comes amid worries over President Donald Trump’s plans for tariffs against U.S. imports, which has coincided with a volatile stock market and other surveys showing waning sentiment.

The fall in confidence was driven by a decline in those 55 or older but was spread across income groups.

In addition to the general pessimism, the outlook for the stock market slid sharply, with just 37.4% of respondents expecting higher equity prices in the next year. That marked a 10 percentage point drop from February and was the first time the view turned negative since late-2023.

The view on the labor market also weakened, with those expecting more jobs to be available falling to 16.7%, while those expecting fewer jobs rose to 28.5%. The respective February readings were 18.8% and 26.6%.

Get Your Ticket to Pro LIVE
Join us at the New York Stock Exchange!
Uncertain markets? Gain an edge with CNBC Pro LIVE, an exclusive, inaugural event at the historic New York Stock Exchange.

In today’s dynamic financial landscape, access to expert insights is paramount. As a CNBC Pro subscriber, we invite you to join us for our first exclusive, in-person CNBC Pro LIVE event at the iconic NYSE on Thursday, June 12.

Join interactive Pro clinics led by our Pros Carter Worth, Dan Niles, and Dan Ives, with a special edition of Pro Talks with Tom Lee. You’ll also get the opportunity to network with CNBC experts, talent and other Pro subscribers during an exciting cocktail hour on the legendary trading floor. 

Tickets are limited!

Continue Reading

Trending