Connect with us

Economics

Consumer spending is up big in early April in anticipation of tariffs

Published

on

Consumer spending is rising at a faster clip this month as everyday Americans rush to make purchases before President Donald Trump’s full tariff plan takes effect, data released Wednesday from JPMorgan shows.

Spending through the first 15 days in April climbed about 3.8% from the same period a year ago, JPMorgan found. Spending in March increased about 2.7% from the comparable month a year ago.

The pickup in spending shouldn’t be construed as heralding faster economic growth, however. “April data may reflect a pullforward of discretionary spending on big-ticket items if consumers tried to lock in lower prices before tariffs went into effect,” JPMorgan analysts led by Richard Shane wrote to clients in a note on Wednesday.

Much of the April gain came from discretionary spending, which rose by 4.3% in the first 15 days year-over-year, versus 2.9% growth in non-discretionary spending.

Psychological impact

JPMorgan’s data offers early hard evidence of how Trump’s plan for steep tariffs on imports has affected the psyche of American consumers. While Trump placed many of his planned levies on a 90-day pause soon after announcing them, anecdotal reports show Main Street consumers bracing for what many view as a seismic shift in global trade.

To be sure, JPMorgan noted that some of the growth in spending may have also been tied to the Easter holiday, which fell almost three weeks later in 2025 than in 2024. The analysts also pointed to sliding gasoline prices as a possible driver of increased discretionary spending.

Still, the potential for some binge buying before the full effect of Trump’s tariff policy is felt has altered the short-term economic outlook for small business owners and policymakers alike.

At first, “activity might look artificially high … and then by the summer, might fall off — because people have bought it all,” Austan Goolsbee, president of the Chicago Federal Reserve, recently told CBS in reference to the acceleration of spending by consumers trying to get ahead of tariffs. A temporary bump in spending may lead to a corresponding drop-off in spending during the summer, he said.

Inventory stockpile

Goolsbee also cited evidence of businesses stockpiling inventory to last two to three months and said so-called preemptive purchasing appeared more common among companies than consumers.

Shippers have front-loaded cargo heading to the U.S. to get ahead of any potential increase in taxes as a result of the tariffs, according to CNBC’s Supply Chain Survey. Products from China, which face a cumulative tariff rate of 145%, accounted for much of the cargo shippers were sending to the U.S. earlier than planned.

This idea of an expedited spending timeline by consumers is popping up on first-quarter corporate earnings calls, too, as Wall Street analysts study whether demand for products ranging from smartphones to automobiles could fall later.

AT&T finance chief Pascal Desroches said Wednesday that customers have upgraded devices at a faster clip than expected since Trump unveiled his tariff plan.

Capital One CEO Richard Fairbank told analysts on Tuesday that upticks in spending on electronics and cars looked like signs of consumers speeding up purchases before the full tariff plan goes into effect. Ally Financial CEO Michael Rhodes said last week that a pull-forward in used car purchases could account for what he called strong volume recently seen by the auto loan provider.

Capital One and Ally’s anecdotes dovetail with data from Cox Automotive, which found U.S. vehicle supply plunging as consumers rushed to purchase.

The historical record shows that an acceleration in spending to beat higher prices later on doesn’t amount to much over the long term. For example, Japanese consumers in 1997 rushed to buy before a consumption tax rose to 5%, and again in 2014 and 2015 before the tax climbed to 8% and 10%, respectively. Afterward, however, spending either fell or flat lined, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond study.

Get Your Ticket to Pro LIVE
Join us at the New York Stock Exchange!

Uncertain markets? Gain an edge with CNBC Pro LIVE, an exclusive, inaugural event at the historic New York Stock Exchange. In today’s dynamic financial landscape, access to expert insights is paramount.

As a CNBC Pro subscriber, we invite you to join us for our first exclusive, in-person CNBC Pro LIVE event at the iconic NYSE on Thursday, June 12.

Join interactive Pro clinics led by our Pros Carter Worth, Dan Niles and Dan Ives, with a special edition of Pro Talks with Tom Lee. You’ll also get the opportunity to network with CNBC experts, talent and other Pro subscribers during an exciting cocktail hour on the legendary trading floor. Tickets are limited!

Economics

Republicans have a plan to add trillions of dollars to the national debt

Published

on

MUCH AS he may wish to, Donald Trump cannot govern through imperial decree alone. Congress is drafting legislation to remake the tax system and alter federal spending—something only it can do. On May 12th Republicans unveiled their new plan. Unfortunately it is a mess.

Continue Reading

Economics

CPI inflation April 2025: Rate hits 2.3%

Published

on

Customers line up at the check out booth on April 18, 2025 at a Costco branch in Niantic, Connecticut.

Robert Nickelsberg | Getty Images

Inflation was slightly lower than expected in April as President Donald Trump’s tariffs just began hitting the slowing U.S. economy, according to a Labor Department report Tuesday.

The consumer price index, which measures the costs for a broad range of goods and services, rose a seasonally adjusted 0.2% for the month, putting the 12-month inflation rate at 2.3%, its lowest since February 2021, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said. The monthly reading was in line with the Dow Jones consensus estimate while the 12-month was a bit below the forecast for 2.4%.

Excluding volatile food and energy prices, core CPI also increased 0.2% for the month, while the year-over-year level was 2.8%. The forecast was for 0.3% and 2.8% respectively.

The monthly readings were a bit higher than in March though price increases remain well off their highs of three years ago.

Shelter prices again were the main culprit in pushing up the inflation gauge. The category, which makes about one-third of the index weighting, increased 0.3% in April, accounting for more than half the overall move, according to the BLS.

After posting a 2.4% slide in March, energy prices rebounded, with a 0.7% gain. Food saw a 0.1% decline.

Used vehicle prices saw their second straight drop, down 0.5%, while new vehicles were flat. Apparel costs also were off 0.2% though medical care services increased 0.5%.

Egg prices tumbled, falling 12.7%, though they were still up 49.3% from a year ago.

While the April CPI figures were relatively tame, the Trump tariffs remain a wild card in the inflation picture, depending on where negotiations go between now and the summer.

In his much-awaited “Liberation Day” announcement, Trump slapped 10% duties on all U.S. imports and said he intended to put additional reciprocal tariffs on trading partners. Recently, though, Trump has backed off his position, with the most dramatic development a 90-day stay on aggressive tariffs against China while the two sides enter further negotiations.

Markets expect the president’s softening position to lead to less of a chance of interest rate cuts this year. Traders had been expecting the Federal Reserve to start easing in June, with at least three total reductions likely this year.

Since the China developments, the market has pushed out the first cut to September, with just two likely this year as the central bank feels less pressure to support the economy and as inflation has held above the Fed’s 2% target now for more than four years.

The Fed relies more on the Commerce Department’s inflation gauge for policymaking, though CPI figures into that index. The BLS on Thursday will release its April reading on producer prices, which are seen as more of a leading indicator on inflation.

This is breaking news. Please refresh for updates.

Continue Reading

Economics

German business leaders tell new government: It’s time to deliver

Published

on

TEGERNSEE, GERMANY — Top German business leaders, economists and politicians descended onto a small, picturesque Bavarian town situated next to the iconic Tegernsee lake last week to share their hopes and discuss what’s at stake for the new government.

Buoyed by recent positive market sentiment for Europe’s largest economy, attendees at the summit were united in their call for the new administration to step up and honour campaign promises. Any missteps would likely not be tolerated, with some business leaders warning the government cannot allow itself a “lazy summer.”

Despite rain and low hanging clouds providing a somewhat dreary backdrop to the event, which has been dubbed the “Davos of Germany,” the promise of new beginnings enveloped the summit and the atmosphere was buzzing with excitement for potential changes the newly-appointed Chancellor Friedrich Merz could initiate.

The view across the Tegernsee from the Ludwig Erhard Summit

Sophie Kiderlin, CNBC

Big expectations for the government were commonplace, with concerns about Germany’s struggling economy and recent political turmoil seemingly having faded into the background.

The German DAX index is currently up over 18% since the beginning of this year, frequently hitting record highs in recent months. The German economy has however been in stagnation territory for over two years now, with tensions over economic, fiscal and budget policy in the previous ruling coalition and its eventual breakup continuing to weigh on expectations.

“There are very high hopes now on the new government,” Patrick Trutwein, chief risk officer and chief operating officer at the IKB Deutsche Industriebank AG, said during a panel moderated by CNBC’s Annette Weisbach.

He said he was feeling positive about Germany’s future considering the announcement of the major fiscal package enshrined in Germany’s constitution, as well as further potential reforms ahead and “an economy that’s pretty robust and can build on its own … productivity and competencies.”

Matthias Voelkel, CEO of Boerse Stuttgart Group, was among those feeling hopeful.

“If we look ahead and if they [the new government] do the right thing, I’m optimistic,” he told CNBC.

Audi CEO Gernot Döllner meanwhile said in a fireside chat that he was hopeful that the new government would “send an impulse into the German economy.”

The mood was also upbeat in Germany’s auto sector, which has long been struggling with competition from China, pressures from the transition to electric vehicles and has recently been hit by U.S. tariffs.

“The Germans are back,” Hildegard Müller, president of the German Association of the Automotive Industry, told CNBC’s Weisbach Friday. “We are competitive,” she added.

A talk at the Ludwig Erhard Summit.

Sophie Kiderlin, CNBC

But amid the positive buzz, it was clear that observers are keeping a close eye on the governments every move.

“This new government in Germany cannot allow itself a political lazy summer, I’m sorry, they’ve got to work and they’ve got to work hard,” said Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg, chairman of Spitzberg Partners and former German politician.

Or as Veronika Grimm, member of the German Council of Economic Experts, told CNBC: “A lot lies ahead for the government.”

09 May 2025, Bavaria, Gmund Am Tegernsee: Katherina Reiche (CDU), Federal Minister for Economic Affairs and Energy, takes part in the Ludwig Erhard Summit. Representatives from business, politics, science and the media are taking part in the three-day summit. Photo: Sven Hoppe/dpa (Photo by Sven Hoppe/picture alliance via Getty Images)

Germany’s new economy boss has a plan — and it starts with risk, speed and big bets

Overal the message was clear: Germany needs to get its act together.

Alexander Horn, general manager of Eli Lilly‘s Germany arm — Lilly Germany — said the business strongly welcomes the new government’s goals, but won’t tolerate any caveats.

“Specifically we expect that the declarations of intent that are in the coalition agreement will be implemented quickly, speed plays an enormously big role,” he said during a panel, according to a CNBC translation.

Boerse Stuttgart Group’s Voelkel indicated his optimism relied on action from the government, saying he was looking for moves towards “less bureaucracy, less anti-growth regulation, more innovation and particularly strengthening investment.”

'Crypto is going mainstream,' Boerse Stuttgart Group CEO says

The newly minted German government has set itself many of these points as policy goals, making promises to boost the country’s economy, reduce bureaucracy and boost innovation and investment during the election campaign and in its coalition agreement.

“This country needs an economic turnaround. After two years of recessions the previous government had to announce again [a] zero growth year for 2025 and we really have to work on this,” German economy minister Katherina Reiche told CNBC on the sidelines of the summit.

Continue Reading

Trending