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Consumers continue to spend even as trade wars raise recession risk

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Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin: A lot of reasons to be worried about consumer spending

While many Americans are worried about where the U.S. economy is heading, few have changed their spending habits in anticipation of a slowdown.

Nearly three-quarters, or 73%, of adults said they are “financially stressed,” with most pointing to the tariff wars as the culprit, according to a recent CNBC/SurveyMonkey online poll.

And yet, consumer spending has remained remarkably resilient.

In part because of looming tariffs, shoppers are panic buying. In fact, consumer spending was even stronger than expected in March, according to the Commerce Department and ticked up again in April, data released Wednesday from J.P. Morgan showed.

J.P. Morgan also raised its odds for a U.S. and global recession to 60%, by year end, up from 40% previously.

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Setting the stage for a slowdown

Consumer spending is considered the backbone of the economy because it represents a significant portion of Gross Domestic Product and fuels economic growth.

In a speech earlier this month before business journalists in Arlington, Va., Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said “the economy is overwhelmingly driven by consumer spending.” Powell also said that he expects President Donald Trump’s tariff policies to raise inflation and lower growth.

Most experts agree that in the face of higher prices for many consumer goods, Trump’s tariffs are igniting a fresh wave of declining sentiment, which plays a big part in determining where the economy is headed.

The Conference Boards’ expectations index, which measures consumers’ short-term outlook, plunged to its lowest level in 12 years and well below the recession threshold, signaling heightened recession risk. The University of Michigan’s consumer survey also showed sentiment sank by more than 30% since December among persistent worries of a trade war.

“On-again, off-again rising tariffs and resulting turmoil in the stock market and world economy are clearly impacting consumer concerns about higher prices and future consumer spending growth,” Jack Kleinhenz, chief economist of the National Retail Federation, said in a statement.

How tariffs impact household budgets

The Trump administration’s tariffs on a host of other countries are currently in the middle of a 90-day pause, with a 10% baseline tariff rate instead applying to all imported goods across the board. The pause is due to expire on July 9, with Trump touting a series of rate negotiations with foreign leaders between now and then.

According to an analysis by the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center, if the lower tariff rates in effect during the 90-day pause remain in effect permanently, it could reduce real income for the average taxpayer by about $3,100 in 2026. A separate study by the Budget Lab at Yale estimates that tariffs could cost the average household roughly $3,800 per year.

“Household budgets remain under pressure and highly sensitive to further price increases,” said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate. “Inflation will continue to be central to how consumers feel about their finances, and their capacity for additional spending.”

A looming drop off

Financial constraints coupled with expectations that the economy is weakening will eventually cause consumers to spend less, which can cause businesses to cut back or lay off workers, according to Sasha Indarte, an assistant professor of finance at University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School. “That is a self-fulfilling prophecy.”

“Even a small initial cutback in spending gets amplified,” she said. “One person’s spending becomes another person’s income — you can get this echo effect.”

But basic economic theories don’t tell the whole story, Indarte added.

Even when consumers intend to cut back, they don’t always scale back their spending as much as they want to, or should. Behavioral biases and inertia also play a role, according to Indarte.

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Forgotten 401(k) fees cost workers thousands in retirement savings

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No access to a 401(k)?

With more Americans job hopping in the wake of the Great Resignation, the risk of “forgetting” a 401(k) plan with a previous employer has jumped, recent studies show. 

As of 2023, there were 29.2 million left-behind 401(k) accounts holding roughly $1.65 trillion in assets, up 20% from two years earlier, according to the latest data by Capitalize, a fintech firm.

Nearly half of employees leave money in their old plans during work transitions, according to a 2024 report from Vanguard.

However, that can come at a cost.

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For starters, 41% of workers are unaware that they are paying 401(k) fees at all, a 2021 survey by the U.S. Government Accountability Office found.

In most cases, 401(k) fees, which can include administrative service costs and fees for investment management, are relatively low, depending on the plan provider. 

But there could be additional fees on 401(k) accounts left behind from previous jobs that come with an extra bite.

Fees on forgotten 401(k)s

Jelena Danilovic | Getty Images

Former employees who don’t take their 401(k) with them could be charged an additional fee to maintain those accounts, according to Romi Savova, CEO of PensionBee, an online retirement provider. “If you leave it with the employer, the employer could force the record keeping costs on to you,” she said.

According to PensionBee’s analysis, a $4.55 monthly nonemployee maintenance fee on top of other costs can add up to nearly $18,000 in lost retirement funds over time. Not only does the monthly fee eat into the principal, but workers also lose the compound growth that would have accumulated on the balance, the study found.

Fees on those forgotten 401(k)s can be particularly devastating for long-term savers, said Gil Baumgarten, founder and CEO of Segment Wealth Management in Houston.

That doesn’t necessarily mean it pays to move your balance, he said.

“There are two sides to every story,” he said. “Lost 401(k)s can be problematic, but rolling into a IRA could come with other costs.”

What to do with your old 401(k)

When workers switch jobs, they may be able to move the funds to a new employer-sponsored plan or roll their old 401(k) funds into an individual retirement account, which many people do.

But IRAs typically have higher investment fees than 401(k)s and those rollovers can also cost workers thousands of dollars over decades, according to another study, by The Pew Charitable Trusts, a nonprofit research organization.

Collectively, workers who roll money into IRAs could pay $45.5 billion in extra fees over a hypothetical retirement period of 25 years, Pew estimated.

Another option is to cash out an old 401(k), which is generally considered the least desirable option because of the hefty tax penalty. Even so, Vanguard found 33% of workers do that.

How to find a forgotten 401(k) 

While leaving your retirement savings in your former employer’s plan is often the simplest option, the risk of losing track of an old plan has been growing.

Now, 25% of all 401(k) plan assets are left behind or forgotten, according to the most recent data from Capitalize, up from 20% two years prior.

However, thanks to “Secure 2.0,” a slew of measures affecting retirement savers, the Department of Labor created the retirement savings lost and found database to help workers find old retirement plans.

“Ultimately, it can’t really be lost,” Baumgarten said. “Every one of these companies has a responsibility to provide statements.” Often simply updating your contact information can help reconnect you with these records, he advised.   

You can also use your Social Security number to track down funds through the National Registry of Unclaimed Retirement Benefits, a private-sector database.

In 2022, a group of large 401(k) plan administrators launched the Portability Services Network.

That consortium works with defined contributor plan rollover specialist Retirement Clearinghouse on auto portability, or the automatic transfer of small-balance 401(k)s. Depending on the plan, employees with up to $7,000 could have their savings automatically transferred into a workplace retirement account with their new employer when they change jobs.

The goal is to consolidate and maintain those retirement savings accounts, rather than cashing them out or risk losing track of them, during employment transitions, according to Mike Shamrell, vice president of thought leadership at Fidelity Investments, the nation’s largest provider of 401(k) plans and a member of the Portability Services Network.

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‘What’s the point’ of saving money

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Xavier Lorenzo | Moment | Getty Images

Gen Z seems to have a case of economic malaise.

Nearly half (49%) of its adult members — the oldest of whom are in their late 20s — say planning for the future feels “pointless,” according to a recent Credit Karma poll.

A freewheeling attitude toward summer spending has taken root among young adults who feel financial “despair” and “hopelessness,” said Courtney Alev, a consumer financial advocate at Credit Karma.

They think, “What’s the point when it comes to saving for the future?” Alev said.

That “YOLO mindset” among Generation Z — the cohort born from roughly 1997 through 2012 — can be dangerous: If unchecked, it might lead young adults to rack up high-interest debt they can’t easily repay, perhaps leading to delayed milestones like moving out of their parents’ home or saving for retirement, Alev said.

But your late teens and early 20s is arguably the best time for young people to develop healthy financial habits: Starting to invest now, even a little bit, will yield ample benefits via decades of compound interest, experts said.

“There are a lot of financial implications in the long term if these young people aren’t planning for their financial future and [are] spending willy-nilly however they want,” Alev said.

Why Gen Z feels disillusioned

That said, that many feel disillusioned is understandable in the current environment, experts said.

The labor market has been tough lately for new entrants and those looking to switch jobs, experts said.

The U.S. unemployment rate is relatively low, at 4.2%. However, it’s much higher for Americans 22 to 27 years old: 5.8% for recent college grads and 6.9% for those without a bachelor’s degree, according to Federal Reserve Bank of New York data as of March 2025.

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Young adults are also saddled with debt concerns, experts said.

“They feel they don’t have any money and many of them are in debt,” said Winnie Sun, co-founder and managing director of Sun Group Wealth Partners, based in Irvine, California. “And they’re wondering if the degree they have (or are working toward) will be of value if A.I. takes all their jobs anyway. So is it just pointless?”

About 50% of bachelor’s degree recipients in the 2022-23 class graduated with student debt, with an average debt of $29,300, according to College Board.

The federal government restarted collections on student debt in default in May, after a five-year pause.

The Biden administration’s efforts to forgive large swaths of student debt, including plans to help reduce monthly payments for struggling borrowers, were largely stymied in court.

“Some hoped some or more of it would be forgiven, and that didn’t turn out to be the case,” said Sun, a member of CNBC’s Financial Advisor Council.

Meanwhile, in a 2024 report, the New York Fed found credit card delinquency rates were rising faster for Gen Z than for other generations. About 15% had maxed out their cards, more than other cohorts, it said.

Market Navigator: Buy now, pay later boom

It’s also “never been easier to buy things,” with the rise of buy now, pay later lending, for example, Alev said.

BNPL has pushed the majority of Gen Z users — 77% — to say the service has encouraged them to spend more than they can afford, according to the Credit Karma survey. The firm polled 1,015 adults ages 18 and older, 182 of whom are from Gen Z.

These financial challenges compound an environment of general political and financial uncertainty, amid on-again-off-again tariff policy and its potential impact on inflation and the U.S. economy, for example, experts said.

“You start stacking all these things on top of each other and it can create a lack of optimism for young people looking to get started in their financial lives,” Alev said.

How to manage that financial malaise

Patricio Nahuelhual | Moment | Getty Images

“This is actually the most exciting time to invest, because you’re young,” Sun said.

Instituting mindful spending habits, such as putting a waiting period of at least 24 hours in place before buying a non-essential item, can help prevent unnecessary spending, she added.

Sun advocates for paying down high-interest debt before focusing on investing, so interest payments don’t quickly spiral out of control. Or, as an alternative, they can try to fund a 401(k) to get their full company match while also working to pay off high-interest debt, she said.

“Instead of getting into the ‘woe is me’ mode, change that into taking action,” Sun said. “Make a plan, take baby steps and get excited about opportunities to invest.”

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Trump admin seeks Education Department layoff ban lifted

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A demonstrator speaks through a megaphone during a Defend Our Schools rally to protest U.S. President Donald Trump’s executive order to shut down the U.S. Department of Education, outside its building in Washington, D.C., U.S., March 21, 2025.

Kent Nishimura | Reuters

The Trump administration on Friday asked the Supreme Court to lift a court order to reinstate U.S. Department of Education employees the administration had terminated as part of its efforts to dismantle the agency.

Officials for the administration are arguing to the high court that U.S. District Judge Myong Joun in Boston didn’t have the authority to require the Education Department to rehire the workers. More than 1,300 employees were affected by the mass layoffs.

The staff reduction “effectuates the Administration’s policy of streamlining the Department and eliminating discretionary functions that, in the Administration’s view, are better left to the States,” Solicitor General D. John Sauer wrote in the filing.

A federal appeals court had refused on Wednesday to lift the judge’s ruling.

In his May 22 preliminary injunction, Joun pointed out that the staff cuts led to the closure of seven out of 12 offices tasked with the enforcement of civil rights, including protecting students from discrimination on the basis of race and disability.

Meanwhile, the entire team that supervises the Free Application for Federal Student Aid, or FAFSA, was also eliminated, the judge said. (Around 17 million families apply for college aid each year using the form, according to higher education expert Mark Kantrowitz.)

The Education Dept. announced its reduction in force on March 11 that would have gutted the agency’s staff.

Two days later, 21 states — including Michigan, Nevada and New York — filed a lawsuit against the Trump administration for its staff cuts at the agency.

After President Donald Trump signed an executive order on March 20 aimed at dismantling the Education Department, more parties sued to save the department, including the American Federation of Teachers.

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