Finance

Dalio says cutting budget deficit is crucial to stabilize bond market

Published

14 hours ago

January 21, 2025

Ray Dalio, Founder & CIO Mentor Bridgewater Associates, speaking on CNBC’s Squawk Box at the WEF Annual Meeting in Davos, Switzerland on Jan. 16th, 2024.

Adam Galici | CNBC

Billionaire investor Ray Dalio thinks reducing the U.S. budget deficit could stabilize the bond market and lower interest rates.

The founder of Bridgewater, one of the world’s largest hedge funds, said the current projected deficit is 7.5% of U.S. gross domestic product. If that ratio goes down to 3%, the supply-demand imbalance in the bond market would be lessened significantly, Dalio said.

“It’s almost a black and white situation,” Dalio said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” from the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. “All those bonds have to be sold … there’s a tremendous supply … It’s happened many times before, so we have to stabilize that, and we can do it.”

Rising financing costs along with continued spending growth and declining tax receipts have combined to send deficits spiraling and have pushed the national debt past the $36 trillion mark. In 2024, the government spent more on interest payments than any other outlay other than Social Security, defense and health care.

The widely-followed investor said reducing the deficit can be achieved through higher taxes, lower spending or a combination of the two, so long as politicians work together to solve the problem.

“That’s what I call the 3% solution,” Dalio said. “We have so much debt that the interest costs on the debt is more important than spending and taxes …. our problem isn’t the deficit. Our problem is the politics, the fragmented politics.”

Finance

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Published

7 hours ago

January 21, 2025

Business Finance News

Finance

David Einhorn says we have reached the ‘Fartcoin’ stage of the market cycle

Published

9 hours ago

January 21, 2025

Business Finance News

David Einhorn, President at Greenlight Capital, speaking at the 14th CNBC Delivery Alpha Investor Summit in New York City on Nov. 13th, 2024.

Adam Jeffery | CNBC

Greenlight Capital’s David Einhorn thinks speculative behavior in the current bull market has ascended to a level beyond common sense.

“We have reached the ‘Fartcoin’ stage of the market cycle,” Einhorn wrote in an investor letter obtained by CNBC. “Other than trading and speculation, it serves no other obvious purpose and fulfills no need that is not served elsewhere.”

A crypto token called “fartcoin” exploded in popularity as the re-election of Donald Trump unleashed a storm of animal spirits on Main Street. The meme coin is now edging towards a $2 billion market value, surpassing many U.S.-listed companies.

More meme coins have emerged since the inception of fartcoin. President Donald Trump launched $TRUMP, a meme coin built on the Solana platform. Its market cap over the weekend climbed past $14 billion. The coin at one point was down more than 20% over the past 24 hours, but it has since cut its losses to around 3%. Trump’s wife Melania also unveiled a coin.

“Nothing stops the launch of many more tradable coins,” Einhorn said. “Perhaps we are leaving the Fartcoin stage of the market and entering the Trump (and Melania) memecoin stage. It’s anyone’s guess as to what will happen next, but it feels like it’s going to be wild.”

Einhorn’s letter comes as investors drive equities higher, buoyed by expectations of lower taxes and deregulation from the second Trump administration. On Tuesday, the day after the inauguration, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied more than 400 points. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.8% and 0.7%, respectively.

Shorting leveraged bitcoin ETFs

Greenlight took advantage of the craziness around crypto during the fourth quarter by betting against some popular ETFs linked indirectly to bitcoin.

The two funds the firm focused on were the T-Rex 2X Long MSTR Daily Target ETF (MSTU) and the Defiance Daily Target 2X Long MSTR ETF (MSTX). Those funds use derivatives to try to achieve two-times the daily returns of MicroStrategy, a software company that has turned itself into a bitcoin treasury vehicle in recent years.

The funds have at times struggled to achieve that goal due to MicroStrategy’s volatility and little supply of the derivatives most easily used to get the leveraged returns.

The letter said Greenlight took short positions against those funds during the quarter, partially offset by owning MicroStrategy stock in an arbitrage trade that was a “material winner.”