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Donald Trump could entrench a MAGA Supreme Court for a generation

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WHEN HE RAN for president in 2016, Donald Trump released two lists of potential justices to assure Republicans he would choose conservatives to fill Supreme Court vacancies. He issued a third list in 2017 and final roster in 2020—days before Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s death allowed him to cement a 6-3 conservative majority on America’s highest court.

Mr Trump recently said his campaign has turned listless because he “no longer need[s]” to shore up his conservative bona fides. Indeed, thanks to Mr Trump the court has overturned Roe v Wade, bolstered gun rights, hobbled administrative agencies, battered the wall separating church from state and all but immunised presidents from criminal prosecution. With large majorities deploring the end of Roe and the court’s popularity in the dumps, announcing plans to push the court still further to the right may not be an enticement to swing voters. Still, if he is re-elected Mr Trump may get to appoint at least two more justices, because both Justice Clarence Thomas and Justice Samuel Alito might decide to go on his watch to keep the court conservative. That would take him to a total of five justices, a feat only a handful of presidents have managed.

Who would they be? The Centre for Judicial Renewal, a wing of the American Family Association, a religious-right organisation, trumpets five candidates and warns Mr Trump off four judges he appointed to circuit courts because, among other things, one (Amul Tharpar) used a transgender litigant’s preferred pronouns and another (Neomi Rao) converted to Judaism. One of its “green rating” picks, chosen for his “biblical worldview” (one of its ten attributes of a “constitutional judge”) is James Ho, who was tapped by Mr Trump in 2017 for a seat on an appellate court—and who appeared on his 2020 Supreme Court list.

Judge Ho is the most combative jurist on the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals, America’s most conservative intermediate court. Even on a tribunal that forces right-wing causes backed by dubious legal principles onto the Supreme Court’s docket, Judge Ho distinguishes himself.

In June, writing for a unanimous Supreme Court, Justice Brett Kavanaugh laid out an error in a ruling by Judge Ho and two colleagues that had rolled back access to mifepristone, an abortion medication. The pro-life doctors challenging the Food and Drug Administration’s regulations, Justice Kavanaugh explained, lacked the right to sue because the mifepristone rules had caused them no harm. No mention was made of Judge Ho’s peculiar argument that doctors who “delight in working with their unborn patients” can challenge rules governing abortion pills because they “experience an aesthetic injury” when fetuses are aborted.

The contention that doctors have standing to oppose a medication because it strips them of “a source of profound joy” is not Judge Ho’s only injection of far-fetched positions—and personal scruples—into his jurisprudence. Early in his tenure he wrote of the “moral tragedy of abortion” in a case involving a Texan law requiring the burial of fetal remains. As solicitor-general of Texas in 2009, he wrote a brief describing the right to bear arms as “the ultimate guarantor of all the other liberties enjoyed by Americans”. Two years ago, a covid public-health measure in Mississippi challenged by Golden Glow, a tanning salon, spurred Judge Ho to call for a return to Lochner v New York—the decision that struck down decades of worker protections until the Supreme Court abandoned it in 1937.

Judge Ho also regularly inserts himself into culture-war battles, boycotting graduates of Yale and Columbia for clerkships and lashing out at critics. This outspokenness beyond his chambers is in stark contrast to the more reserved man he could succeed under a second Trump presidency, Justice Thomas. At 76, he is the oldest, and longest-serving, sitting justice. But like Justice Thomas, Judge Ho, aged 51, purports to interpret the constitution in light of its original meaning. Both men seem to have idiosyncratic impressions of that meaning, often writing only for themselves to articulate a position none of their fellow jurists are willing to defend. The ties are intimate: Justice Thomas hired Mr Ho as a law clerk in 2005 and, 13 years later, administered his oath of office in the personal library of Harlan Crow, the right-wing billionaire from whom Justice Thomas has accepted luxury trips, raising  ethics concerns.

Judge Ho has a colleague on the Fifth Circuit who could also find himself elevated if the justice he clerked for in 2008—Samuel Alito—retires. Andrew Oldham, aged 46, may lack Judge Ho’s bombast, but his views on the law are just as radical. During his confirmation hearing in 2018, Judge Oldham declined to say whether Brown v Board of Education, a ruling that declared segregation in schools unconstitutional, was correctly decided. He has pursued a deregulatory agenda on the Fifth Circuit that has, at times, found friendly majorities at the Supreme Court. On October 25th, he wrote for Judge Ho and another short-list pick of the Centre for Judicial Renewal, Judge Kyle Duncan, that counting mail-in ballots postmarked by election day but received a few days later is illegal—despite the long-standing practice being adopted in nearly half of America’s states.

If Republicans take control of the White House and Senate in January, little will stand in the way of Mr Trump seating the likes of Judges Ho and Oldham. Their prospects may turn on the Senate margin; with at least a 52-48 gap, Mr Trump could afford to lose Lisa Murkowski and Susan Collins, two moderate Republicans, and still eke out enough years to entrench a MAGA Supreme Court for a generation.

Economics

Donald Trump sacks America’s top military brass

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THE FIRST shot against America’s senior military leaders was fired within hours of Donald Trump’s inauguration on January 20th: General Mark Milley’s portrait was removed from the wall on the E-ring, where it had hung with paintings of other former chairmen of the joint chiefs of staff. A day later the commandant of the coast guard, Admiral Linda Fagan, was thrown overboard. On February 21st it was the most senior serving officer, General Charles “CQ” Brown, a former F-16 pilot, who was ejected from the Pentagon. At least he was spared a Trumpian farewell insult. “He is a fine gentleman and an outstanding leader,” Mr Trump declared.

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Checks and Balance newsletter: The journalist’s dilemma of covering Trump

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Checks and Balance newsletter: The journalist’s dilemma of covering Trump

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Germany’s election will usher in new leadership — but might not change its economy

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Production at the VW plant in Emden.

Sina Schuldt | Picture Alliance | Getty Images

The struggling German economy has been a major talking point among critics of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’ government during the latest election campaign — but analysts warn a new leadership might not turn these tides.

As voters prepare to head to the polls, it is now all but certain that Germany will soon have a new chancellor. The Christian Democratic Union’s Friedrich Merz is the firm favorite.

Merz has not shied away from blasting Scholz’s economic policies and from linking them to the lackluster state of Europe’s largest economy. He argues that a government under his leadership would give the economy the boost it needs.

Experts speaking to CNBC were less sure.

“There is a high risk that Germany will get a refurbished economic model after the elections, but not a brand new model that makes the competition jealous,” Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at ING, told CNBC.

The CDU/CSU economic agenda

The CDU, which on a federal level ties up with regional sister party the Christian Social Union, is running on a “typical economic conservative program,” Brzeski said.

It includes income and corporate tax cuts, fewer subsidies and less bureaucracy, changes to social benefits, deregulation, support for innovation, start-ups and artificial intelligence and boosting investment among other policies, according to CDU/CSU campaigners.

“The weak parts of the positions are that the CDU/CSU is not very precise on how it wants to increase investments in infrastructure, digitalization and education. The intention is there, but the details are not,” Brzeski said, noting that the union appears to be aiming to revive Germany’s economic model without fully overhauling it.

“It is still a reform program which pretends that change can happen without pain,” he said.

Geraldine Dany-Knedlik, head of forecasting at research institute DIW Berlin, noted that the CDU is also looking to reach gross domestic product growth of around 2% again through its fiscal and economic program called “Agenda 2030.”

But reaching such levels of economic expansion in Germany “seems unrealistic,” not just temporarily, but also in the long run, she told CNBC.

Germany’s GDP declined in both 2023 and 2024. Recent quarterly growth readings have also been teetering on the verge of a technical recession, which has so far been narrowly avoided. The German economy shrank by 0.2% in the fourth quarter, compared with the previous three-month stretch, according to the latest reading.

Europe’s largest economy faces pressure in key industries like the auto sector, issues with infrastructure like the country’s rail network and a housebuilding crisis.

Dany-Knedlik also flagged the so-called debt brake, a long-standing fiscal rule that is enshrined in Germany’s constitution, which limits the size of the structural budget deficit and how much debt the government can take on.

Whether or not the clause should be overhauled has been a big part of the fiscal debate ahead of the election. While the CDU ideally does not want to change the debt brake, Merz has said that he may be open to some reform.

“To increase growth prospects substantially without increasing debt also seems rather unlikely,” DIW’s Dany-Knedlik said, adding that, if public investments were to rise within the limits of the debt brake, significant tax increases would be unavoidable.

“Taking into account that a 2 Percent growth target is to be reached within a 4 year legislation period, the Agenda 2030 in combination with conservatives attitude towards the debt break to me reads more of a wish list than a straight forward economic growth program,” she said.

Change in German government will deliver economic success, says CEO of German employers association

Franziska Palmas, senior Europe economist at Capital Economics, sees some benefits to the plans of the CDU-CSU union, saying they would likely “be positive” for the economy, but warning that the resulting boost would be small.

“Tax cuts would support consumer spending and private investment, but weak sentiment means consumers may save a significant share of their additional after-tax income and firms may be reluctant to invest,” she told CNBC.  

Palmas nevertheless pointed out that not everyone would come away a winner from the new policies. Income tax cuts would benefit middle- and higher-income households more than those with a lower income, who would also be affected by potential reductions of social benefits.

Coalition talks ahead

Following the Sunday election, the CDU/CSU will almost certainly be left to find a coalition partner to form a majority government, with the Social Democratic Party or the Green party emerging as the likeliest candidates.

The parties will need to broker a coalition agreement outlining their joint goals, including on the economy — which could prove to be a difficult undertaking, Capital Economics’ Palmas said.

“The CDU and the SPD and Greens have significantly different economic policy positions,” she said, pointing to discrepancies over taxes and regulation. While the CDU/CSU want to reduce both items, the SPD and Greens seek to raise taxes and oppose deregulation in at least some areas, Palmas explained.

The group is nevertheless likely to hold the power in any potential negotiations as it will likely have their choice between partnering with the SPD or Greens.

“Accordingly, we suspect that the coalition agreement will include most of the CDU’s main economic proposals,” she said.

Germany is 'lacking ambition,' investor says

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