DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach said Tuesday that the Federal Reserve needs to ease policy swiftly amid the current economic slowdown, seeing a half-point interest-rate reduction this week. “The Fed just follows the two-year Treasury and the two-year Treasury is down at 3.6% so the Fed needs to cut rates [by] 150 [basis points] pretty quickly,” Gundlach told CNBC’s Scott Wapner at the Future Proof Conference in Huntington Beach, California. “I think they are going to start with 50 [basis points] tomorrow.” Markets currently are pricing in a 60% chance that the Fed will approve a 50 basis point reduction at the conclusion of its policy meeting Wednesday, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool. A quarter-point rate cut had been the consensus as recently as a week ago. Fed funds, the central bank’s benchmark overnight lending rate, currently stand at 5.25% to 5.50%. But the 2-year Treasury yield was last at around 3.59%. The size of the Fed’s first rate cut in years has been a point of debate on Wall Street. On the one hand, a rate cut could help boost earnings growth for companies following a period of high borrowing costs and stubborn inflation. On the other hand, a reduction steeper than previously expected could spark concerns about the health of the economy, which has shown some signs of weakness. “We have a serious chance of a deflationary situation that’s occurring … when I look at the price of oil, … prices broadly, and layoffs that are coming, which may lead to zero wage growth,” Gundlach said. “So I think the Fed is well behind the curve and should get their act together.” Recent inflation data showed that price pressures have eased substantially since their meteoric rise in 2021-22. One gauge of consumer prices showed 12-month inflation at its lowest since February 2021, while wholesale price measures indicated pipeline price increases are mostly under control. ‘We are in a recession right now’ Gundlach, a noted fixed income investor whose firm managed $96 billion as of 2023, said he stood by his call that the U.S. has been in a recession. “I said on July 31… the history books would say the United States was in a recession in September 2024. And I still believe it’s true,” Gundlach said. “We are in a recession right now.” He has long cautioned investors against ignoring the yield curve inversion phenomenon, where 2-year Treasurys yield more than 10-years. The yield-curve inversion has been a reliable recession predictor and signs of a reversal could be indicative of an imminent economic downturn. He believes the recent un-inversion of the yield is highly suggestive of a recession.
Check out the companies making headlines in premarket trading. Walmart – The retail giant gained about 4% after posting fiscal third-quarter results that surpassed Wall Street’s estimates. Walmart also boosted its guidance as customers buy more than groceries. Lowe’s — The home improvement retailer’s shares fell 1.7%. Although the company reported a top- and bottom-line beat in the fiscal third quarter, it estimates sales will fall year over year. Lowe’s forecasts comparable sales to drop from 3% to 3.5%, slightly better than the 3.5% to 4% decline it previously anticipated. Super Micro Computer — The server maker soared around 26% after announcing BDO as its new auditor. The news came after Ernst & Young stepped down last month. Super Micro also provided a plan to the Nasdaq on how it will stay in compliance with exchange’s rules. Symbotic — The automation technology company surged 28.5% after beating expectations for revenue in the fourth fiscal quarter. Revenue came in at $576.8 million in the fourth quarter, well above the $470.2 million figure penciled in by Wall Street. Symbotic also offered strong current-quarter top-line guidance. AeroVironment — The stock dropped 5% after the defense contractor announced it was acquiring BlueHalo in an all-stock transaction valued at $4.1 billion. AeroVironment said the deal will “usher in the next ear of defense technology” for the company. BioNTech — Shares gained 1.9% after Evercore ISI upgraded the German biotechnology company to outperform from in line. Evercore ISI said the “chaos” following President-elect Donald Trump’s election of Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s nomination to the Department of Health and Human Services is a buying opportunity for investors. Nvidia — Stock in the artificial intelligence darling and market bellwether advanced about 1.5% in premarket trading. Nvidia is set to report third-quarter results on Wednesday, and investors will be paying particularly close attention to demand for the company’s Blackwell chip . — CNBC’s Sarah Min, Samantha Subin, Hakyung Kim, Sean Conlon, Brian Evans and Michelle Fox contributed reporting
Hiroki Takeuchi, co-founder and CEO of GoCardless.
Zed Jameson | Bloomberg | Getty Images
LISBON, Portugal — Financial technology unicorns aren’t in a rush to go public after buy now, pay later firm Klarna filed for a U.S. IPO — but they’re keeping a watchful eye on it for signs of when the market will open up again.
Last week, Klarna made a confidential filing to go public in the U.S., ending months of speculation over where the Swedish digital payments firm would list. Timing of the IPO is still unclear, and Klarna has yet to decide on pricing or the number of shares it’ll issue to the public.
Still, the development drew buzz from fintech circles with market watchers asking if the move marks the start of a resurgence in big fintech IPOs. For now, that doesn’t appear to be the case — however, founders say they’ll be watching the IPO market, eyeing pricing and eventually stock performance closely.
Hiroki Takeuchi, CEO of online payments startup GoCardless, said last week that it’s not yet time for his company to fire the starting gun on an IPO. He views listing as more of a milestone on a journey than an end goal.
“The markets have been challenging over the last few years,” Takeuchi, whose business GoCardless was last valued at over $2 billion, said in a CNBC-moderated panel at the Web Summit tech conference in Lisbon, Portugal.
“We need to be focused on building a better business,” Takeuchi added, noting that “the rest will follow” if the startup gets that right. GoCardless specializes in recurring payments, transactions that come out of a consumer’s bank account in a routine fashion — such as a monthly donation to charity.
Lucy Liu, co-founder of cross-border payments firm Airwallex, agreed with Takeuchi and said it’s also not the right time for Airwallex to go public. In a separate interview, Liu directed CNBC to what her fellow Airwallex co-founder and CEO Jack Zhang has said previously — that the firm expects to be “IPO-ready” by 2026.
“Every company is different,” Liu said onstage, sat alongside Takeuchi on the same panel. Airwallex is more focused on becoming the best it can be at solving friction in global cross-border payments, she said.
An IPO is a goal in the company’s trajectory — but it’s not the final milestone, according to Liu. “We’re constantly in conversations with our investors shareholders,” she said, adding that will change “when the time is right.”
‘Stars aligning’ for fintech IPOs
One thing’s for sure, though — analysts are much more optimistic about the outlook for fintech IPOs now than they were before.
“We outlined five handles to open the [IPO] window, and I think those stars are aligning in terms of the macro, interest rates, politics, the elections are out the way, volatility,” Navina Rajan, senior research analyst at private market data firm PitchBook, told CNBC.
“It’s definitely in a better place, but at the end of the day, we don’t know what’s going to happen, there’s a new president in the U.S.,” Rajan continued. “It will be interesting to see the timing of the IPO and also the valuation.”
Fintech companies have raised around 6.2 billion euros ($6.6 billion) in venture capital from the beginning of the year through Oct. 30, according to PitchBook data.
Jaidev Janardana, CEO and co-founder of British digital bank Zopa, told CNBC that an IPO is not an immediate priority for his firm.
“To be honest, it’s not the top of mind for me,” Janardana told CNBC. “I think we continue to be lucky to have supportive and long-term shareholders who support future growth as well.”
He implied private markets are currently still the most accommodative place to be able to build a technology business that’s focused on investing in growth.
However, Zopa’s CEO added that he’s seeing signs pointing toward a more favorable IPO market in the next couple of years, with the U.S. likely opening up in 2025.
That should mean that Europe becomes more open to IPOs happening the following year, according to Janardana. He didn’t disclose where Zopa is looking to go public.
Tencent’s Honor of Kings mobile game drew a record 33,000 fans to watch a final competition in Beijing on Nov. 16, 2024.
CNBC | Evelyn Cheng
BEIJING — Chinese gaming giant Tencent is betting on a rise in female players worldwide for its mobile game Honor of Kings, which rolled out to the U.S. and other countries in June.
Already a hit in China, the game drew a record 33,000 fans to a Beijing stadium on Saturday to watch two teams compete for a $3 million grand prize.
Surprisingly, many in the crowd were young women, reflecting how interest in mobile games has broadened out from the stereotypical male player in the days of console and PC gaming.
Launched in China in November 2015, the game’s appeal lies in its easy learning curve and relatively short sessions of around 15 minutes. Anyone with a smartphone can play for free in real time, on the go.
“Honor of Kings became an important way for me to socialize,” said Tianyun Gao, according to CNBC’s translation of her spoken Mandarin. She started playing the game in 2017 as a sophomore in college and became a professional commentator for the game’s competitions a year later.
Gao, an English major from Shanghai, has moderated Honor of Kings’ competitions in two languages, including an international event held in Riyadh, the capital of Saudi Arabia, in August. She said her hope is to see esports become as mainstream as traditional sports, noting that one of her inspirations is a Chinese soccer commentator.
Tencent ramped up its global expansion plans for Honor of Kings this year, with its subsidiary, Level Infinite, in February announcing a $15 million investment in developing the game’s tournament worldwide.
An international version of the game has been available since 2016 under different names such as Arena of Valor, but the latest global push for Honor of Kings began in 2022. The game didn’t reach the Middle East until earlier this year and only launched in the key markets of North America, Europe and Japan in June.
Less than a month later, the game topped 50 million downloads outside China, according to the company.
Overwhelmingly mobile-focused
Growth in gaming among women stems largely from their preference in playing on their smartphones, without having to invest in consoles and other technology.
“Nearly half of female players play only on mobile platforms so we have a huge addressable audience,” said Jackie Huang, head of the Honor of Kings global esports division within Tencent Games’ TiMi L1 Studio. “Women make up a significant part of our player base but we want to see this continue growing.”
He said that 45% of gamers globally are women, and that the gender composition of Honor of Kings’ users is “relatively balanced. “We strive to provide users, no matter how they identify, with [a] high quality gaming experience,” Huang said.
The company also owns Riot Games, a developer whose PC-based League of Legends has become one of the most popular names in global esports with its own annual competition. Honor of Kings, which claims 100 million players a day, uses a similar format with two teams of five players each.
Such multiplayer games are the second-most popular category for female gamers, behind puzzles, said Xiaofeng Zeng, China-based vice president at gaming research firm Niko Partners. His analysis found that 95% of women prefer mobile games.
If Honor of Kings can hold first place in China, and achieve that position overseas, then Tencent can generate half its revenue from international markets, Zeng said. He said the game’s top overseas markets by revenue are the U.S., India, Malaysia, and Indonesia.
And in the key market of Southeast Asia, Zeng said that due to a low base, female players are growing two to three times more quickly than male gamers. A newly branded Honor of Kings global championship was held last month in Jakarta, Indonesia’s capital, with Malaysian team Black Shrew Esports winning the $300,000 first prize.
Early stages
For now, no matter how popular Honor of Kings may be among women, the competitions remain dominated by men. The two teams competing in Beijing on Saturday consisted only of male players.
Huang pointed out that the global championship this year featured a female player from France’s Team Vitality, which is also managed and coached by women.
He attributed the Honor of King’s popularity among women to the game’s playable characters that are also female. Many of the figures, each with different powers, are based on Chinese historical or mythological figures.
In 2021, organizers of the Honor of Kings competition in China also launched a tournament for female players. This year’s womens finals are set to take place in December, with a prize of around $41,000 for the winning team.
“The pandemic was a large accelerator of females into the games space and we have continued to see increased engagement from female gamers,” said Chirag Ambwani, SVP, gaming and entertainment, at SensorTower, which focuses on mobile games.
Reasons include specialized and easy to access content, he said, adding that gaming participation grew overall.
As for Honor of Kings’ global expansion, Ambwani said SensorTower research showed “healthy growth,” with average revenue of more than $5 per user in the U.S. and Canada.