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ECB’s Centeno ‘very concerned’ about Europe’s struggling economy

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'I am very concerned about the European economy,' Mário Centeno says

Europe’s struggling economy has economists worried — and senior European Central Bank policymaker Mário Centeno, echoes that view.

“I am very concerned about the European economy,” Centeno, who is also governor of the Bank of Portugal, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Friday.

On Thursday, the ECB revised its gross domestic product expectations for the euro area to 0.9% growth in 2025, down from a previously projected 1.1% expansion. The euro area’s seasonally adjusted GDP most recently eked out a 0.1% increase in the fourth quarter.

Centeno linked the downward growth outlook revision to reduced exports and investments, echoing the ECB statement.

“Special investment is, I think, quite subdued in Europe. It will take four years for us to go back to the 2023 level of investment in the private sector, six years in terms of housing investment [and we will be] going back to 2022 levels only in 2028,” he explained.

“These are numbers that raise some questions about the recovery in Europe,” Centeno added.

Concerns about Europe’s sluggish economy have accelerated in recent months, following repeated threats of tariffs from the U.S. administration. U.S. President Donald Trump has already introduced duties on imports from several key U.S. trading partners and has indicated that Europe could be the next target.

But there is frequent policy movement in the U.S.’ position, with pauses, delays and exemptions aplenty as negotiations and pledges of reciprocal measures from the targeted countries continue.

“Tariffs are a tax. They are a tax on both consumption and production, and we do know that taxes have a very clear impact on the economy,” Centeno said Friday, warning that ultimately no one would gain from a tariff war.

One bright spot ahead for Europe could be a potential defense spending push from the European Union, which was introduced earlier this week off the back of souring relations between the U.S. and Ukraine.

If such packages are “well designed,” they could have a positive impact on Europe’s economy, Centeno said.

Germany also this week announced plans to boost infrastructure and defense spending, although the proposal must first pass some hurdles before it can be implemented.

Further rate cuts ahead?

Centeno also addressed the outlook for ECB interest rates, signaling further trims were expected ahead.

“We do think that the journey is very clear, although these rate cuts [were] implemented because the European economy is stagnated, we do have in our baseline a projection of inflation going to 2% in the medium term, but that that includes further adjustment in the rates,” he said.

However, the central bank needed to remain “open” and follow a data dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach, especially due to the current uncertainty regarding economic policies, Centeno said.

The ECB on Thursday announced its sixth interest rate cut since June last year, taking its key rate, the deposit facility rate, another quarter point lower to 2.5%. The move had been widely expected by markets.

In a statement announcing the decision, the ECB also tweaked the language it used to characterize monetary policy to say it was now “meaningfully less restrictive,” a change from the previous description of “restrictive.”

Interpretations of what this could imply for the rate path ahead diverged, with some analysts and economists saying it suggested that policymakers were becoming more cautious about cutting rates. Others said the central bank’s statement indicated more cuts ahead, but that a pause in the cutting cycle could now be on the horizon.

Markets were last pricing in an around 57% chance of the ECB holding rates steady during its April monetary policy meeting and a 43% probability of a further quarter-point reduction.

Beyond the ECB’s statement, markets are likely to also be taking into account developments around tariffs and European defense spending in their assessment of what could come next from the ECB.

“The decision in April will take on board all the information we will get until then,” the central bank’s Centeno commented.

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China targets U.S. services and other areas after decrying ‘meaningless’ tariff hikes on goods

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Dilara Irem Sancar | Anadolu | Getty Images

China last week announced it was done retaliating against U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs, saying any further increases by the U.S. would be a “joke,” and Beijing would “ignore” them.

Instead of continuing to focus on tariffing goods, however, China has chosen to resort to other measures, including steps targeting the American services sector.

Trump has jacked up U.S. levies on select goods from China by up to 245% after several rounds of tit-for-tat measures with Beijing in recent weeks. Before calling it a “meaningless numbers game,” China last week imposed additional duties on imports from the U.S. of up to 125%.

While the Trump administration has largely focused on pressing ahead on his tariff plans, Beijing has rolled out a series of non-tariff restrictive measures including widening export controls of rare-earth minerals and opening antitrust probes into American companies, such as pharmaceutical giant DuPont and IT major Google.

Before the latest escalation, in February Beijing had put dozens of U.S. businesses on a so-called “unreliable entity” list, which would restrict or ban firms from trading with or investing in China. American firms such as PVH, the parent company of Tommy Hilfiger, and Illumina, a gene-sequencing equipment provider, were among those added to the list.

Its tightening of exports of critical mineral elements will require Chinese companies to secure special licenses for exporting these resources, effectively restricting U.S. access to the key minerals needed for semiconductors, missile-defense systems and solar cells.

In its latest move on Tuesday, Beijing went after Boeing — America’s largest exporter — by ordering Chinese airlines not to take any further deliveries for its jets and requested carriers to halt any purchases of aircraft-related equipment and parts from U.S. companies, according to Bloomberg.

Having deliveries to China cut off will add to the cash-strapped plane maker’s troubles, as it struggles with a lingering quality-control crisis.

In another sign of growing hostilities, Chinese police issued notices for apprehending three people they claimed to have engaged in cyberattacks against China on behalf of the U.S. National Security Agency.

Chinese state media, which published the notice, urged domestic users and companies to avoid using American technology and replace them with domestic alternatives.

“Beijing is clearly signaling to Washington that two can play in this retaliation game and that it has many levers to pull, all creating different levels of pain for U.S. companies,” said Wendy Cutler, vice president at Asia Society Policy Institute.

“With high tariffs and other restrictions in place, the decoupling of the two economies is at full steam,” Cutler said.

Targeting trade in services

China is seen by some as seeking to broaden the trade war to encompass services trade — which covers travel, legal, consulting and financial services — where the U.S. has been running a significant surplus with China for years.

China Beige Book CEO: U.S. needs to articulate what they want from China

Earlier this month, a social media account affiliated with Chinese state media Xinhua News Agency, suggested Beijing could impose curbs on U.S. legal consultancy firms and consider a probe into U.S. companies’ China operations for the huge “monopoly benefits” they have gained from intellectual-property rights.

China’s imports of U.S. services surged more than 10-fold to $55 billion in 2024 over the past two decades, according to Nomura estimates, driving U.S. services trade surplus with China to $32 billion last year.

Last week, China said it would reduce imports of U.S. films and warned its citizens against traveling or studying in the U.S., in a sign of Beijing’s intent to put pressure on the U.S. entertainment, tourism and education sectors.

“These measures target high-visibility sectors — aviation, media, and education — that resonate politically in the U.S.,” said Jing Qian, managing director at Center for China Analysis.

While they might be low on actual dollar impact given the smaller scale of these sectors, “reputational effects — such as fewer Chinese students or more cautious Chinese employees — could ripple through academia and the tech talent ecosystem,” he added.

Nomura estimates $24 billion could be at stake if Beijing significantly step up restrictions on travel to the U.S.

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Travel dominated U.S. services exports to China, reflecting expenditure by millions of Chinese tourists in the U.S., according to Nomura. Within travel, education-related spending leads at 71%, it estimates, mostly coming from tuition and living expenses for the more than 270,000 Chinese students studying in the U.S.

Entertainment exports, encompassing films, music and television programs, accounted for just 6% of U.S. exports within this sector, the investment firm said, noting that Beijing’s latest move on film imports “carries more symbolic heft than economic bite.”

“We could see deeper decoupling — not only in supply chains, but in people-to-people ties, knowledge exchange, and regulatory frameworks. This may signal a shift from transactional tension to systemic divergence,” said Qian.

Can Beijing get more aggressive?

Analysts largely expect Beijing to continue deploying its arsenal of non-tariff policy tools in an effort to raise its leverage ahead of any potential negotiation with the Trump administration.

“From the Chinese government’s perspective, the U.S. companies’ operations in China are the biggest remaining target for inflicting pain on the U.S .side,” said Gabriel Wildau, managing director at risk advisory firm Teneo.

Apple, Tesla, pharmaceutical and medical device companies are among the businesses that could be targeted as Beijing presses ahead with non-tariff measures, including sanction, regulatory harassment and export controls, Wildau added.

Shoppers and staff are seen inside the Apple Store, with its sleek modern interior design and prominent Apple logo, in Chongqing, China, on Sept. 10, 2024.

Cheng Xin | Getty Images

While a deal may allow both sides to unwind some of the retaliatory measures, hopes for near-term talks between the two leaders are fading fast.

Chinese officials have repeatedly condemned the “unilateral tariffs” imposed by Trump as “bullying” and vowed to “fight to the end.” Still, Beijing has left the door open for negotiations but they must be on “an equal footing.”

On Tuesday, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Trump is open to making a deal with China but Beijing needs to make the first move.

“In the end, only when a country experiences sufficient self-inflicted harm might it consider softening its stance and truly returning to the negotiation table,” said Jianwei Xu, economist at Natixis.

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