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Economic turbulence ‘effectively assured’ Fed will cut interest rates in September

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The Dow Jones dropped by over 1,000 points on Monday and has been struggling since.  (iStock )

A surprising jobs report released last week paired with a volatile Japanese market led to a massive selloff during Monday’s trading day, with both the Dow Jones and the S&P seeing their worst sessions since 2022.

In the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ most recent employment report, only 114,000 jobs were added, down substantially from the previous month when 206,000 jobs were added. This sudden slowdown in employment has led to mounting concerns about an economic recession. The selloff, largely set off by the report, has some uncomfortable similarities to market crashes like the 1987 Black Monday stock market crash and the financial crisis of 2008.

Along with fewer jobs added, the unemployment rate shot up to 4.3% in July, adding to the mounting fears that ultimately led to Monday’s troubles. The Dow dropped by more than 1,000 points, or 2.6%, while the S&P 500 slid 3%.

On Tuesday, stocks recovered slightly as recession fears lessened and Japanese equities rallied. The Dow Jones rose by just over 294 points and the S&P 500 rose 1.04%. This ended the three-day stretch of market losses. Global markets also recovered as Japanese stocks rebounded, with the Nikkei 225 seeing its best day since October 2008, jumping 10.2%. On Monday, the Nikkei dropped by 12.4%.

Wednesday ended the gains the market made the day before, with the Dow falling 234 points by the end of the day. The S&P 500 also dropped again by 0.8%.

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A turbulent market may be good for interest rate cuts

Despite a rough week for the stock market, the jobs report has effectively assured the rate cuts expected in September will happen, Melissa Cohn, William Raveis Mortgage regional vice president, said in a statement.

Consumers have been waiting for these rate cuts to start borrowing again, but they should only expect a small initial cut. Should the Fed cut rates multiple times through the end of the year, then consumers may see more substantial movement in interest rates.

“People also need to remember that mortgage rates aren’t going to change based on a Fed cut,” Cohn said. “Your home equity rate will drop. Your student loans, car loans, all those rates will drop every time the Fed cuts rates, but mortgage rates are tied to the bond market, and the bond market is more affiliated with the rate of inflation and bad economic data than it is to the Fed funds rate.”

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Economists can’t decide whether the US is headed toward recession

This week’s ebb and flow of the market created a complicated look at where the economy may be heading. Economists have differing opinions on whether this means the U.S. is catapulting toward a recession.

The unemployment rate rising to 4.3% triggered an economic rule known as the Sahm rule, which is an indicator of a recession. The rule states that a sudden increase by 0.5 percentage points in the unemployment rate within a 12-month period typically indicates a recession is coming.

However, despite this indicator, it’s “very doubtful” that a recession has started, Adam Schickling, a Vanguard senior economist said. There are conflicting reports that have led Schickling to make this statement.

“A significant and persistent deviation between the household and establishment surveys has created a unique paradox of the unemployment rate rising 60 basis points since July 2023 even as job creation in the establishment survey has more than offset an increase in the labor force,” Schickling explained.

Fears of a recession may simply be an overreaction to a bad week for the market and a month of weak employment, according to some economists. Still, a continued cooldown of the employment market could signal a cause for concern.

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AMERICANS AGREE THAT SOMETHING MUST BE DONE TO SAVE SOCIAL SECURITY: SURVEY

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Scott Bessent calls Moody’s a ‘lagging indicator’ after U.S. credit downgrade

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Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in an interview on NBC News’ “Meet the Press” that Moody’s Ratings were a “lagging indicator” after the group downgraded the U.S.’ credit rating by a notch from the highest level.

“I think that Moody’s is a lagging indicator,” Bessent said Sunday. “I think that’s what everyone thinks of credit agencies.”

Moody’s said last week that the downgrade from Aaa to Aa1 “reflects the increase over more than a decade in government debt and interest payment ratios to levels that are significantly higher than similarly rated sovereigns.”

The treasury secretary asserted that the downgrade was related to the Biden administration’s spending policies, which that administration had touted as investments in priorities, including combatting climate change and increasing health care coverage.

“Just like Sean Duffy said with our air traffic control system, we didn’t get here in the past 100 days,” Bessent continued, referring to the transportation secretary. “It’s the Biden administration and the spending that we have seen over the past four years.”

The U.S. has $36.22 trillion in national debt, according to the Treasury Department. It began growing steadily in the 1980s and continued increasing during both President Donald Trump’s first term and former President Joe Biden’s administration.

Bessent also told moderator Kristen Welker that he spoke on the phone with the CEO of Walmart, Doug McMillon, who the treasury secretary said told him the retail giant would “eat some of the tariffs, just as they did in ’18, ’19 and ’20.”

Walmart CFO John David Rainey previously told CNBC that Walmart would absorb some higher costs related to tariffs. The CFO had also told CNBC separately that he was “concerned” consumers would “start seeing higher prices,” pointing to tariffs.

Trump said in a post to Truth Social last week that Walmart should “eat the tariffs.” Walmart responded, saying the company has “always worked to keep our prices as low as possible and we won’t stop.”

“We’ll keep prices as low as we can for as long as we can given the reality of small retail margins,” the statement continued.

When asked about his conversation, Bessent denied he applied any pressure on Walmart to “eat the tariffs,” noting that he and the CEO “have a very good relationship.”

“I just wanted to hear it from him, rather than second-, third-hand from the press,” Bessent said.

McMillon had said on Walmart’s earnings call that tariffs have put pressure on prices. Bessent argued that companies “have to give the worst case scenario” on the calls.

The White House has said that countries are approaching the administration to negotiate over tariffs. The administration has also announced trade agreements with the United Kingdom and China. 

Bessent said on Sunday that he thinks countries that do not negotiate in good faith would see duties return to the rates announced the day the administration unveiled across-the-board tariffs.

“The negotiating leverage that President Trump is talking about here is if you don’t want to negotiate, then it will spring back to the April 2 level,” Bessent said.

Bessent was also asked about Trump saying the administration would accept a luxury jet from Qatar to be used as Air Force One, infuriating Democrats and drawing criticism from some Republicans as well. 

The treasury secretary called questions about the $400 million gift an “off ramp for many in the media not to acknowledge what an incredible trip this was,” referring to investment commitments the president received during his trip last week to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.

“If we go back to your initial question on the Moody’s downgrade, who cares? Qatar doesn’t. Saudi doesn’t. UAE doesn’t,” he said. “They’re all pushing money in.”

When asked for his response to those who argue that the jet sends a message that countries can curry favor with the U.S. by sending gifts, Bessent said that “the gifts are to the American people,” pointing to investment agreements that were unveiled during Trump’s Middle East trip. 

Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn., criticized Bessent’s comments about the credit downgrade, saying in a separate interview on “Meet the Press.”

“I heard the treasury secretary say that, ‘Who cares about the downgrading of our credit rating from Moody’s?’ That is a big deal,” Murphy said.

“That means that we are likely headed for a recession. That probably means higher interest rates for anybody out there who is trying to start a business or to buy a home,” he continued. “These guys are running the economy recklessly because all they care about is the health of the Mar-a-Lago billionaire class.”

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Pilotless planes are taking flight in China. Bank of America says it's time to buy

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While startups around the world have tried to build vehicles that can fly without a pilot, only one is certified to carry people — in China.

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Insiders at UnitedHealth are scooping up tarnished shares

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Key Points

  • UnitedHealth Group saw some of its insiders step in and purchase declining shares this week.
  • Kristen Gil, a director at the firm, bought 3,700 shares worth roughly $1 million on Thursday.
  • Shares of UnitedHealth plunged nearly 11% to $274.35 on Thursday following a report in The Wall Street Journal that the Department of Justice is conducting a criminal investigation into possible Medicare fraud.

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