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Economic turbulence ‘effectively assured’ Fed will cut interest rates in September

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The Dow Jones dropped by over 1,000 points on Monday and has been struggling since.  (iStock )

A surprising jobs report released last week paired with a volatile Japanese market led to a massive selloff during Monday’s trading day, with both the Dow Jones and the S&P seeing their worst sessions since 2022.

In the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ most recent employment report, only 114,000 jobs were added, down substantially from the previous month when 206,000 jobs were added. This sudden slowdown in employment has led to mounting concerns about an economic recession. The selloff, largely set off by the report, has some uncomfortable similarities to market crashes like the 1987 Black Monday stock market crash and the financial crisis of 2008.

Along with fewer jobs added, the unemployment rate shot up to 4.3% in July, adding to the mounting fears that ultimately led to Monday’s troubles. The Dow dropped by more than 1,000 points, or 2.6%, while the S&P 500 slid 3%.

On Tuesday, stocks recovered slightly as recession fears lessened and Japanese equities rallied. The Dow Jones rose by just over 294 points and the S&P 500 rose 1.04%. This ended the three-day stretch of market losses. Global markets also recovered as Japanese stocks rebounded, with the Nikkei 225 seeing its best day since October 2008, jumping 10.2%. On Monday, the Nikkei dropped by 12.4%.

Wednesday ended the gains the market made the day before, with the Dow falling 234 points by the end of the day. The S&P 500 also dropped again by 0.8%.

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A turbulent market may be good for interest rate cuts

Despite a rough week for the stock market, the jobs report has effectively assured the rate cuts expected in September will happen, Melissa Cohn, William Raveis Mortgage regional vice president, said in a statement.

Consumers have been waiting for these rate cuts to start borrowing again, but they should only expect a small initial cut. Should the Fed cut rates multiple times through the end of the year, then consumers may see more substantial movement in interest rates.

“People also need to remember that mortgage rates aren’t going to change based on a Fed cut,” Cohn said. “Your home equity rate will drop. Your student loans, car loans, all those rates will drop every time the Fed cuts rates, but mortgage rates are tied to the bond market, and the bond market is more affiliated with the rate of inflation and bad economic data than it is to the Fed funds rate.”

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MORTGAGE PAYMENTS SOAR FOR PROSPECTIVE HOMEOWNERS IN SWING STATES: REALTOR.COM

Economists can’t decide whether the US is headed toward recession

This week’s ebb and flow of the market created a complicated look at where the economy may be heading. Economists have differing opinions on whether this means the U.S. is catapulting toward a recession.

The unemployment rate rising to 4.3% triggered an economic rule known as the Sahm rule, which is an indicator of a recession. The rule states that a sudden increase by 0.5 percentage points in the unemployment rate within a 12-month period typically indicates a recession is coming.

However, despite this indicator, it’s “very doubtful” that a recession has started, Adam Schickling, a Vanguard senior economist said. There are conflicting reports that have led Schickling to make this statement.

“A significant and persistent deviation between the household and establishment surveys has created a unique paradox of the unemployment rate rising 60 basis points since July 2023 even as job creation in the establishment survey has more than offset an increase in the labor force,” Schickling explained.

Fears of a recession may simply be an overreaction to a bad week for the market and a month of weak employment, according to some economists. Still, a continued cooldown of the employment market could signal a cause for concern.

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AMERICANS AGREE THAT SOMETHING MUST BE DONE TO SAVE SOCIAL SECURITY: SURVEY

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Berkshire advances on surge in earnings, but questions linger about cash

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Warren Buffett walks the floor ahead of the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Shareholders Meeting in Omaha, Nebraska on May 3, 2024. 

David A. Grogen | CNBC

Berkshire Hathaway shares got a boost after Warren Buffett’s conglomerate reported a surge in operating earnings, but shareholders who were waiting for news of what will happen to its enormous pile of cash might be disappointed.

Class A shares of the Omaha-based parent of Geico and BNSF Railway rose 1.2% premarket Monday following Berkshire’s earnings report over the weekend. Berkshire’s operating profit — earnings from the company’s wholly owned businesses — skyrocketed 71% to $14.5 billion in the fourth quarter, aided by insurance underwriting, where profits jumped 302% from the year-earlier period, to $3.4 billion.

Berkshire’s investment gains from its portfolio holdings slowed sharply, however, in the fourth quarter, to $5.2 billion from $29.1 billion in the year-earlier period. Berkshire sold more equities than it bought for a ninth consecutive quarter in the three months of last year, bringing total sale of equities to more than $134 billion in 2024. Notably, the 94-year-old investor has been aggressively shrinking Berkshire’s two largest equity holdings — Apple and Bank of America.

As a result of the selling spree, Berkshire’s gigantic cash pile grew to another record of $334.2 billion, up from $325.2 billion at the end of the third quarter. 

In Buffett’s annual letter, the “Oracle of Omaha” said that raising a record amount of cash didn’t reflect a dimming of his love for buying stocks and businesses.

“Despite what some commentators currently view as an extraordinary cash position at Berkshire, the great majority of your money remains in equities,” Buffett wrote. “That preference won’t change.”

He hinted that high valuations were the reason for sitting on his hands amid a raging bull market, saying “often, nothing looks compelling.” Buffett also endorsed the ability of Greg Abek, his chosen successor, to pick equity opportunities, even comparing him to the late Charlie Munger.

Meanwhile, Berkshire’s buyback halt is still in place as the conglomerate repurchased zero shares in the fourth quarter and in the first quarter of this year, through Feb. 10.

Some investors and analysts expressed impatience with the lack of action and continued to wait for an explanation, while others have faith that Buffett’s conservative stance will pave the way for big opportunities in the next downturn.

“Shareholders should take comfort in knowing that the firm continues to be managed to survive and emerge stronger from any economic or market downturn by being in a financial position to take advantage of opportunities during a crisis,” said Bill Stone, chief investment officer at Glenview Trust Company and a Berkshire shareholder.

Berkshire is coming off a strong year, when it rallied 25.5% in 2024, outperforming the S&P 500 — its best since 2021. The stock is up more than 5% so far in 2025.

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Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: DPZ, BABA, RIVN, PLTR

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China strives to attract foreign investment amid geopolitical tensions

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Tensions between the world’s two largest economies have escalated over the last several years.

Florence Lo | Reuters

BEIJING — China is trying yet again to boost foreign investment, amid geopolitical tensions and businesses’ calls for more concrete actions.

On Feb. 19, authorities published a “2025 action plan for stabilizing foreign investment” to make it easier for foreign capital to invest in domestic telecommunication and biotechnology industries, according to a CNBC translation of the Chinese.

The document called for clearer standards in government procurement — a major issue for foreign businesses in China — and for the development of a plan to gradually allow foreign investment in the education and culture sectors.

“We are looking forward to see this implemented in a manner that delivers tangible benefits for our members,” Jens Eskelund, president of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China, said in a statement Thursday.

The chamber pointed out that China has already mentioned plans to open up telecommunications, health care, education and culture to foreign investment. Greater clarity on public procurement requirements is a “notable positive,” the chamber said, noting that “if fully implemented,” it could benefit foreign companies that have invested heavily to localize their production in China.

There will be a 'stronger push' for foreign direct investments by the Chinese government: Strategist

China’s latest action plan was released around the same time the Commerce Ministry disclosed that foreign direct investment in January fell by 13.4% to 97.59 billion yuan ($13.46 billion). That was after FDI plunged by 27.1% in 2024 and dropped by 8% in 2023, after at least eight straight years of annual growth, according to official data available through Wind Information.

All regions should “ensure that all the measures are implemented in 2025, and effectively boost foreign investment confidence,” the plan said. The Ministry of Commerce and National Development and Reform Commission — the economic planning agency — jointly released the action plan through the government’s executive body, the State Council.

Officials from the Commerce Ministry emphasized in a press conference Thursday that the action plan would be implemented by the end of 2025, and that details on subsequent supportive measures would come soon.

“We appreciate the Chinese government’s recognition of the vital role foreign companies play in the economy,” Michael Hart, president of the American Chamber of Commerce in China, said in a statement. “We look forward to further discussions on the key challenges our members face and the steps needed to ensure a more level playing field for market access.”

AmCham China’s latest survey of members, released last month, found that a record share are considering or have started diversifying manufacturing or sourcing away from China. The prior year’s survey had found members were finding it harder to make money in China than before the Covid-19 pandemic.

Consumer spending in China has remained lackluster since the pandemic, with retail sales only growing by the low single digits in recent months. Tensions with the U.S. have meanwhile escalated as the White House has restricted Chinese access to advanced technology and levied tariffs on Chinese goods.

‘A very strong signal’

While many aspects of the action plan were publicly mentioned last year, some points — such as allowing foreign companies to buy local equity stakes using domestic loans — are relatively new, said Xiaojia Sun, Beijing-based partner at JunHe Law.

She also highlighted the plan’s call to support foreign investors’ ability to participate in mergers and acquisitions in China, and noted it potentially benefits overseas listings. Sun’s practice covers corporates, mergers and acquisitions and capital markets.

The bigger question remains China’s resolve to act on the plan.

“This action plan is a very strong signal,” Sun said in Mandarin, translated by CNBC. She said she expects Beijing to follow through with implementation, and noted that its release was similar to a rare, high-profile meeting earlier in the week of Chinese President Xi Jinping and entrepreneurs.

That gathering on Feb. 17 included Alibaba founder Jack Ma and DeepSeek’s Liang Wenfeng. In recent years, regulatory crackdowns and uncertainty about future growth had dampened business confidence and foreign investor sentiment.

China needs to strike a balance between tariff retaliation and stabilizing FDI, Citi analysts pointed out earlier this month.

“We believe China policymakers are likely cautious about targeting U.S. [multinationals] as a form of retaliation against U.S. tariffs,” the analysts said. “FDI comes into China, bringing technology and know-how, creating jobs, revenue and profit, and contributing to tax revenue.” 

In a relatively rare acknowledgement, Chinese Commerce Ministry officials on Thursday noted the impact of geopolitical tensions on foreign investment, including some companies’ decision to diversify away from China. They also pointed out that foreign-invested firms contribute to nearly 7% of employment and around 14% of taxes in the country.

Previously, official commentary from the Commerce Ministry about any drop in FDI tended to focus only on how most foreign businesses remained optimistic about long-term prospects in China.

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