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Economists ‘really had it wrong’ about recession: market strategist

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David Zervos, Jefferies

Scott Mlyn | CNBC

The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by another quarter point at the conclusion of its two-day meeting next week.

“Two years ago … three out of four economists were saying we’re going into a recession,” David Zervos, chief market strategist for Jefferies LLC, said during CNBC’s Financial Advisor Summit on Tuesday. “They’ve really had it wrong.”

The economy is still growing and inflation has come down, he said.

The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation stood at 2.3% in October, or 2.8% when excluding food and energy prices, according to the latest reading. Meanwhile, the fourth quarter is on track to post a 3.3% annualized growth rate for gross domestic product, the Atlanta Fed found.

“I think the market is spending way too much time focused on the inflationary consequences of either immigration or trade policies,” Zervos said.

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Last week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell praised the U.S. economy and said it provided cushion for policymakers to move slowly as they recalibrate policy.

By most indicators, 2025 is going to continue in a positive direction, said Barbara Doran, CEO of BD8 Capital Partners during the CNBC Financial Advisor Summit.

“Economic growth is going to be healthy next year,” Doran said. “The prognosis is good.”

Meanwhile, there is still the issue of President-elect Donald Trump’s fiscal policy when he begins his second term.

On one hand, “we’ve got a lot of deregulation coming,” Zervos said, which he called a “huge disinflationary tailwind.”  

“Take the tape, rewind it, put it back to 2019 and let’s go from there,” Zervos said.

In part because of such policies, during the last Trump administration “we saw very little inflation,” he said. “We never really bounced out of that 2% range … so I am really optimistic on the inflation side.”

However, questions remain on Trump’s plans to issue punitive tariffs and whether that could stoke inflation once again. Last month, Goldman’s chief economist, Jan Hatzius, said in a note that the proposed tariffs would boost consumer prices by nearly 1%.

“It’s still a big wildcard that we have to see,” Doran said. “It would be inflationary ultimately, but it would hurt the lowest income consumer who is already hurting.”

If inflation does creep up as a result, that may delay more rate cuts after December’s meeting she added. Other experts also expect the Fed to slow down its pace of rate cuts in 2025.

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What to know at tax time

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Rhetoric & Writing Studies Major, Adamary Garcia studies inside of the Perry-Castaneda Library at the University of Texas at Austin on February 22, 2024 in Austin, Texas.

Brandon Bell  | Getty Images

If your federal student loans were forgiven in 2024, you may be wondering if there are any tax implications.

Many borrowers have benefited from education debt cancellation under the Biden administration. While in office so far, President Joe Biden has cleared nearly $180 billion in federal student loans for 4.9 million people. More than 1 million people had their debt cleared in 2024.

If you’ve had your debt excused last year, here’s what to know at tax time.

No federal taxes on relief through 2025

The American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 made student loan forgiveness tax-free at the federal level through the end of 2025, said higher education expert Mark Kantrowitz. That means you won’t owe anything to Uncle Sam on any federal education debt cleared throughout 2024.

It shouldn’t matter under what program the loans were forgiven, be it Public Service Loan Forgiveness, an income-driven repayment plan or Borrower Defense. The Biden administration has delivered most of its relief through one of those avenues.

(In case you aren’t familiar: PSLF leads to student debt erasure for certain public servants after a decade of qualifying payments. Meanwhile, IDR plans conclude in debt cancellation after a certain period of payments, typically 20 years or 25 years. And Borrower Defense wipes away the debt for students who’ve been defrauded by their schools.)

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Even canceled private student debt shouldn’t trigger a federal tax bill thanks to the terms of the American Rescue Plan, said Carolina Rodriguez, director of the Education Debt Consumer Assistance Program, based in New York. That law is set to expire Dec. 31, 2025.

Meanwhile, student debt excused in bankruptcy should never be subject to federal or state taxes, Kantrowitz added.

You could owe taxes to your state

Despite the current federal policy on forgiven student debt, it’s possible a borrower could still face state taxes.

Currently, a handful of states tax certain kinds of student loan forgiveness, Kantrowitz said. That could be because their state tax code doesn’t conform to the federal one or hasn’t been updated to reflect the American Rescue Plan.

You’ll want to check with your state or a tax professional to learn if your relief triggers any liability.

Many states mirror their student loan forgiveness tax policy on the federal government. As a result, if the American Rescue Plan’s provision expires, more states could levy the forgiven debt again, too.

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Bitcoin soared in 2024. How much — if any — should you own?

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A bitcoin ATM in Miami. 

Joe Raedle | Getty Images News | Getty Images

Bitcoin prices soared in 2024. But you may want to tread with caution before euphoria leads you on a hasty buying spree.

Bitcoin and other crypto should generally account for just a sliver of investor portfolios — generally no more than 5% — due to its extreme volatility, according to financial experts.

Some investors may be wise to stay away from it altogether, they said.

“You’re not going to have the same size allocation in bitcoin as you would Nasdaq or the S&P 500,” said Ivory Johnson, a certified financial planner and founder of Delancey Wealth Management, based in Washington, D.C.

“Whenever you have a real volatile asset class, you need less of it in the portfolio to have the same impact” as traditional assets like stocks and bonds, said Johnson, a member of the CNBC Financial Advisor Council.

Why bitcoin prices increased in 2024

Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency, was the top-performing investment of 2024, by a long shot. Prices surged about 125%, ending the year around $94,000 after starting in the $40,000 range.

By comparison, the S&P 500, a U.S. stock index, rose 23%. The Nasdaq, a tech-heavy stock index, grew 29%.

Prices popped after Donald Trump’s U.S. presidential election win. His administration is expected to embrace deregulatory policies that would spur crypto demand.

A cartoon image of President-elect Donald Trump holding a bitcoin token in Hong Kong, China, on Dec. 5, 2024, to mark the cryptocurrency reaching over $100,000. 

Justin Chin/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Last year, the Securities and Exchange Commission also — for the first time — approved exchange-traded funds that invest directly in bitcoin and ether, the second-largest cryptocurrency, making crypto easier for retail investors to buy.

But experts cautioned that lofty profits may belie an underlying danger.

“With high returns come high risk, and crypto is no exception,” Amy Arnott, a portfolio strategist for Morningstar Research Services, wrote in June.

Bitcoin has been nearly five times as volatile as U.S. stocks since September 2015, and ether has been nearly 10 times as volatile, Arnott wrote.

“A portfolio weighting of 5% or less seems prudent, and many investors may want to skip cryptocurrency altogether,” she said.

1% to 2% is ‘reasonable’ for bitcoin, BlackRock says

Bitcoin lost 64% and 74% of its value in 2022 and 2018, respectively.

Mathematically, investors need a 100% return to recover from a 50% loss.

So far, crypto returns have been high enough to offset its additional risk — but it’s not a given that pattern will continue, Arnott said.

You’re not going to have the same size allocation in bitcoin as you would Nasdaq or the S&P 500.

Ivory Johnson

CFP, founder of Delancey Wealth Management

There are a few reasons for this: Crypto has become less valuable as a portfolio diversifier as it’s gotten more mainstream, Arnott wrote. Its popularity among speculative buyers also “makes it prone to pricing bubbles that will eventually burst,” she added.

BlackRock, a money manager, thinks there’s a case for owning bitcoin in a diversified portfolio, for investors who are comfortable with the “risk of potentially rapid price plunges” and who believe it will become more widely adopted, experts at the BlackRock Investment Institute wrote in early December.

(BlackRock offers a bitcoin ETF, the iShares Bitcoin Trust, IBIT.)

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A 1% to 2% allocation to bitcoin is a “reasonable range,” BlackRock experts wrote.

Going beyond would “sharply increase” bitcoin’s share of a portfolio’s total risk, they said.

For example, a 2% bitcoin allocation accounts for roughly 5% of the risk of a traditional 60/40 portfolio, BlackRock estimated. But a 4% allocation swells that figure to 14% of total portfolio risk, it said.

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Stock investors own shares of companies that produce goods or services, and many investors get dividends; bond investors receive regular interest payments; and commodities are real assets that meet consumption needs, Jackson wrote.

“While crypto has been classified as a commodity, it’s an immature asset class that has little history, no inherent economic value, no cash flow, and can create havoc within a portfolio,” wrote Jackson, now an executive in the firm’s Financial Advisor Services unit.

Dollar-cost average and hold for the long term

Ultimately, one’s total crypto allocation is a function of an investor’s appetite for and ability to take risk, according to financial advisors.

“Younger, more aggressive investors might allocate more [crypto] to their portfolios,” said Douglas Boneparth, a CFP based in New York and member of CNBC’s Advisor Council.

Investors generally hold about 5% of their classic 80/20 or 60/40 portfolio in crypto, said Boneparth, president and founder of Bone Fide Wealth.

“I think it could be a good idea to have some exposure to bitcoin in your portfolio, but it’s not for everyone and it will remain volatile,” Boneparth said. “As far as other cryptocurrencies are concerned, it’s difficult to pinpoint which ones are poised to be a good long-term investment. That’s not to say there won’t be winners.”

Investors who want to buy into crypto should consider using a dollar-cost-averaging strategy, said Johnson, of Delancey Wealth Management.

 “I buy 1% at a time until I get to my target risk,” Johnson said. “And that way I’m not putting 3%, 4%, 5% at one time and then something happens where it drops precipitously.”

It’d also be prudent for investors interested in crypto to buy and hold it for the long term, as they would with other financial assets, Johnson said.

Morningstar suggests holding cryptocurrency for at least 10 years, Arnott wrote.

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2025 tax season starts Jan. 27. Here’s how to file for free

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Pra-chid | Istock | Getty Images

Expanded free filing options for 2025

For the 2025 season, Direct File, the IRS’ free tax filing program, will be open to eligible taxpayers in 25 states. That’s up from 12 states for the 2024 season.

This year, participating states include Alaska, Arizona, California, Connecticut, Florida, Idaho, Illinois, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Washington state, Wisconsin and Wyoming.

Meanwhile, IRS Free File, which offers free guided tax prep through software partners, opened on Jan. 10. Eligible taxpayers can electronically file returns prepared via Free File partners starting on Jan. 27.

Tax Tip: Earned Income Credit

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