Connect with us

Personal Finance

Economy faces ‘some potential storms’ in 2025: economist Mark Zandi

Published

on

Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, testifies during the Senate Budget Committee hearing titled “The Default on America Act: Blackmail, Brinkmanship, and Billionaire Backroom Deals,” in Dirksen Building on Thursday, May 4, 2023. 

Tom Williams | Cq-roll Call, Inc. | Getty Images

The economy is doing “exceptionally well” as President-elect Donald Trump gets ready to enter the White House, according to Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi.

Zandi, speaking at the Consumer Federation of America’s financial services conference on Wednesday, noted some of the glowing areas: Gross domestic product has been growing at around 3%, productivity and business formation rates are strong and the stock market is up.

“The economy can weather a lot of storms,” Zandi said.

But, he added, “I do think there are some potential storms coming” next year under the new administration.

Immigration policy, tariffs could affect economy

Zandi expects Trump to act quickly on deporting immigrants and implementing tariffs, two moves that could have profound impacts on the U.S. economy.

“I believe President Trump is going to do what he said he’ll do on the campaign trail,” Zandi said. “He’s going to be quite aggressive in pursuing the policies.”

Immigration has played a big role in the economy’s strength, Zandi said.

Others agree. “Recent immigrants have flowed disproportionately into the parts of the labor force that were particularly tight in 2022, contributing to labor supply in places where it was most badly needed,” Goldman Sachs analysts wrote in a note to clients in May.

Meanwhile, tariffs create “a whole lot of uncertainty for businesses,” Zandi said. As a result, they could lead to job losses.

Tariffs are also likely to impact people’s spending, he said.

“It’s going to mean higher costs for consumers, it’s a tax increase,” Zandi said.

Trump‘s universal tariff proposals could cause prices to skyrocket on clothing, toys, furniture, household appliances, footwear and travel goods, according to a recent report from the National Retail Federation.

Trump has said he would impose a 10% or 20% tariff on all imports across the board.

More from Personal Finance:
Here’s what to know before taking your first required minimum distribution
Here’s the inflation breakdown for November 2024 — in one chart
‘Unverifiable income’ can limit your mortgage options — here’s how to get around it

The NRF found that the impact of the tariffs would be “dramatic” double-digit percentage price spikes in nearly all six retail categories that the trade group examined.

For example, the cost of clothing could rise between 12.5% and 20.6%, the analysis found. That means an $80 pair of men’s jeans would instead cost between $90 and $96.

These new prices would squeeze consumer budgets, especially for low-income households that spend triple as much of their monthly budgets on apparel as high-income households spend, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Continue Reading

Personal Finance

Here’s what upcoming budget negotiations may mean for Social Security

Published

on

Richard Stephen | Istock | Getty Images

As lawmakers in Washington, D.C., work to rein in government spending, some advocates and consumers are concerned that Social Security could see cuts.

Congress faces a March 14 deadline to extend funding for the federal government in order to avoid a government shutdown. Meanwhile, the Trump administration had hoped to slash $2 trillion in government spending.

Because Social Security accounts for 21% of the budget, or $1.5 trillion in spending in 2024, there are concerns that the program could be a target.

Here’s what experts are keeping a watchful eye on with regard to Social Security in the upcoming negotiations.

Benefit cuts are off the table in budget reconciliation

Last year, the Republican Study Committee, a large group of House Republicans, released a budget proposal to cut federal spending by $17.1 trillion over 10 years.

That included a proposal to raise the Social Security retirement age to 69. Currently, retirees are eligible for the full benefits they’ve earned at age 66 to 67, depending on their date of birth.

With that change, anyone born after 1971 would see their benefit cuts an average of 13%, according to the Congressional Budget Office.

Importantly, no changes can be made to Social Security benefits in upcoming budget reconciliation legislation, due to the Byrd Rule. That law prevents the addition of extraneous provisions, according to Maria Freese, senior legislative representative at the National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare.

Mills: Congress, not the president, decides which agencies exist

But a proposal to raise the retirement age came up during last-minute Senate negotiations over the Social Security Fairness Act in December, and could come up again, experts say.

“Any opportunity that they [Congress] have, I could see it coming up,” Freese said. “They just can’t put it in reconciliation.”

For his part, President Donald Trump said he is opposed to cutting Social Security, except for any waste, fraud or abuse of the program.

Underfunding agency would hurt customer service

Without additional funding, it may take the agency more time to implement the Social Security Fairness Act, a new law that provides benefit increases to more than 3 million beneficiaries, experts have said.

“Congress has consistently and repeatedly underfunded that agency,” Freese said.

That has left the agency more susceptible to criticism, particularly with recent scrutiny of beneficiaries over age 100, she said.

“Part of what is among the first things to go are upgrades to computer systems and things that are considered non essential,” Freese added.

Continue Reading

Personal Finance

Here’s how to qualify for the retirement savings contributions credit

Published

on

Westend61 | Westend61 | Getty Images

There’s a lesser-known tax break for low- to moderate-income Americans who save for retirement. However, most eligible taxpayers don’t claim it, experts say.

The retirement savings contributions credit, or saver’s credit, helps offset funds added to an individual retirement account, 401(k) plan or another workplace plan. The tax break is worth up to $1,000 per filer.

It’s not too late if you didn’t make a qualifying contribution last year. There’s still time to make IRA deposits before April 15 to claim the credit on 2024 returns.

However, “the saver’s credit is a well-kept secret,” Catherine Collinson, CEO and president of Transamerica Center for Retirement Studies said in a February report. 

More from Personal Finance:
Here’s why Trump tariffs may raise your car insurance premiums
Don’t wait to file your taxes this season, experts say. Here’s why
As tariffs ramp up, here’s an investment option to protect against inflation

Only about half of U.S. workers know about the saver’s credit, according to a survey from Transamerica Center for Retirement Studies, which polled more than 10,000 U.S. adults in September and October. 

That percentage drops to 44% among taxpayers with a household income of less than $50,000. 

Awareness of the credit is very low across the board.

Emerson Sprick

Associate director for the Bipartisan Policy Center’s Economic Policy Program

“Awareness of the credit is very low across the board,” but it’s even lower among taxpayers who could qualify to use it, said Emerson Sprick, associate director for the Bipartisan Policy Center’s Economic Policy Program.

To that point, roughly 5.8% of returns claimed the saver’s credit in 2022, according to a the most recent IRS data. The average credit value that year was $194, according to a Transamerica Center for Retirement Studies analysis.

How the saver’s credit works

The saver’s credit can offset as much as 50% of retirement contributions up to $2,000 for single filers or $4,000 for married couples filing jointly, for maximum credits of $1,000 or $2,000, respectively.

The credit provides a dollar-for-dollar reduction of levies owed, which could reduce your tax bill or boost your refund. But the tax break is not “refundable,” which means there’s no benefit with $0 tax liability, Sprick explained.

“The way it’s calculated is fairly complex,” he said. 

There are income phase-outs to claim 50%, 20% or 10% of your contribution, depending on your filing status and adjusted gross income. You can use an IRS tool to see if you’re eligible. 

For 2024, your adjusted gross income can’t exceed $23,000 for single filers or $46,000 for married couples for the 50% credit. The percentages drop to 20% and 10%, respectively, as earnings increase, with a complete phase-out above $38,250 for individuals or $76,500 for joint filers.

Tax Tip: Earned Income Credit

Credit will soon be replaced

Because of the credit’s design and workers’ lack of awareness, “the uptake of this is really low,” Sprick said.

That’s part of the motivation for the “saver’s match” enacted via Secure 2.0, which will replace the saver’s credit in 2027 and deposit money directly into taxpayers accounts, he said.

“Everyone hopes that it’s going to be easier,” Sprick said. But “there are a lot of logistics that remain to be worked out.”

Continue Reading

Personal Finance

What to know about selecting health plans

Published

on

Picture Alliance | Picture Alliance | Getty Images

Although a broader window for Medicare enrollment has closed, some retirees have another opportunity to make changes to their coverage.

Medicare Advantage open enrollment is available from Jan. 1 through March 31.

Medicare Advantage plans are offered by private insurers as an alternative to original Medicare. Generally, Medicare Advantage may cover Medicare Parts A and B, as well as Medicare Part D prescription drug coverage and other potential extra benefits.

During this open enrollment period, individuals who are already enrolled in a Medicare Advantage plan may switch to another Medicare Advantage plan. Alternatively, they may drop their current Medicare Advantage plan and opt for Medicare original coverage.

More from Personal Finance:
How IRS layoffs could impact your tax filing, refund
As tariffs ramp up, here’s an investment option
DOGE’s FDIC firings put banking system at risk

To be sure, there will be more options later in the year during a broader open enrollment period that lasts from October to December, when Medicare original enrollees may also opt to change plans.

For beneficiaries who are eligible to make changes during this time, it’s important not to ignore this window, according to Juliette Cubanski, deputy director of the program on Medicare policy at KFF, a provider of health policy research.

“Plans can change considerably from one year to the next,” Cubanski said. “If people don’t compare their coverage to other options, they may not know that they’re going to be faced with higher costs.”

Check for significant changes

In order to be confident that you’re getting the best deal, it helps to evaluate how your current Advantage plan may have changed since last year.

You may be faced with higher costs if your personal prescriptions have gone up, for example, or your preferred medical provider is no longer in network.

Digging into those plan changes now can help avoid “bad surprises” later, according to Cubanski.

“Make sure the coverage that you have is going to continue to be the coverage that works best for you,” Cubanski said.

Planning for long-term care: Here's what you need to know

Consider extra benefits

To be sure, Medicare Advantage plans have received negative attention because in some cases coverage was denied for necessary care.

Medicare Advantage plans are more likely than traditional Medicare to use prior authorization, approval needed before a patient can receive certain services or medications. However, because prior authorizations that have been denied are frequently overturned when they are appealed, that has prompted questions as to whether the plans are avoiding coverage obligations.

Medicare Advantage plans are more likely than original Medicare to offer extra benefits — such as dental, vision and hearing — that elderly beneficiaries need.

Most Medicare beneficiaries — 83% — consider supplemental benefits to be important to their coverage, according to a recent survey from The Commonwealth Fund, a provider of independent research on health care issues.

Notably, a larger share of Medicare Advantage enrollees — 89% — said supplemental benefits are important to them, versus 74% of traditional Medicare enrollees, The Commonwealth Fund found.

“People on Medicare, both older adults and those with disabilities, generally really need dental, hearing and vision services, as well as other benefits that are typically offered by Medicare Advantage plans,” said Gretchen Jacobson, vice president of Medicare at The Commonwealth Fund.

Beneficiaries who are in traditional Medicare may not have coverage for those same services unless they are able to purchase a supplemental plan or they qualify for Medicaid, Jacobson said.

Seek outside help

When it comes to comparing Advantage plans, beneficiaries do not have to go it alone, Cubanski noted.

State-based organizations — the State Health Insurance Program, or SHIP — provide assistance to Medicare beneficiaries to help sort through their plan options.

Unlike insurance brokers or other professionals, these organizations do not have a financial interest to sign people up for certain plans, Cubanski said.

Continue Reading

Trending