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El-Erian says the Fed has turned into a play-by-play commentator

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Mohamed Aly El-Erian, chief economic advisor for Allianz SE. 

Bloomberg | Getty Images

The U.S. Federal Reserve has become too data dependent and has lost sight of its overall strategy, Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser at Allianz, said Friday.

The economist told CNBC that a longer-term, more strategic outlook could see policymakers settle on a new inflation target of closer to 3%.

“Rather than be strategic, this Fed is overly data dependent, and has turned into a play-by-play commentator,” El-Erian told CNBC’s Steve Sedgwick at the Ambrosetti Spring Forum in Italy.

“That’s not the role of the Fed,” he continued. “The Fed should be strategic, the Fed should provide a strategic anchor, a stabilizer.”

“The mistake that they may make is they’ll end up this time being too tight,” he said.

The U.S. Federal Reserve did not immediately respond to a CNBC request for comment.

This Fed is 'overly data-dependent,' says Allianz chief economic advisor

El-Erian’s comments follow a recent chorus of Fed policymakers who have begun speaking conservatively about rate cuts.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said Wednesday that the Bank would need further evidence to assess the current state of inflation, casting doubt on expectations for a June interest rate cut.

A day later, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said he wondered if the central bank should cut rates at all if inflation remained sticky, causing markets to tumble.

El-Erian said the comments were an example of the Fed “overreacting to data,” and said that it should take a more holistic view of the economy.

However, he noted that policymakers’ hawkish approach could be an indication that they are considering the possibility of a new normal inflation target.

“The way you discuss it politely is you don’t say ‘let’s change the inflation target,’ you say ‘let’s get to 2% somewhere in the future. Let’s have a trajectory’,” El-Erian said. “It may well prove that the economy is stable nearer to 3%. I don’t think that’s going to de-anchor inflation expectations,” he added.

In an effort to drag inflation back down toward its target, the Fed has hiked interest rates 11 times in total over the last few years to a target range of 5.25%-5.5% — the highest level for more than 22 years.

Economics

A protest against America’s TikTok ban is mired in contradiction

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AS A SHUTDOWN looms, TikTok in America has the air of the last day of school. The Brits are saying goodbye to the Americans. Australians are waiting in the wings to replace banished American influencers. And American users are bidding farewell to their fictional Chinese spies—a joke referencing the American government’s accusation that China is using the app (which is owned by ByteDance, a Chinese tech giant) to surveil American citizens.

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Home insurance costs soar as climate events surge, Treasury Dept. says

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Firefighters battle flames during the Eaton Fire in Pasadena, California, U.S., Jan. 7, 2025.

Mario Anzuoni | Reuters

Climate-related natural disasters are driving up insurance costs for homeowners in the most-affected regions, according to a Treasury Department report released Thursday.

In a voluminous study covering 2018-22 and including some data beyond that, the department found that there were 84 disasters costing $1 billion or more, excluding floods, and that they caused a combined $609 billion in damages. Floods are not covered under homeowner policies.

During the period, costs for policies across all categories rose 8.7% faster than the rate of inflation. However, the burden went largely to those living in areas most hit by climate-related events.

For consumers living in the 20% of zip codes with the highest expected annual losses, premiums averaged $2,321, or 82% more than those living in the 20% of lowest-risk zip codes.

“Homeowners insurance is becoming more costly and less accessible for consumers as the costs of climate-related events pose growing challenges to both homeowners and insurers alike,” said Nellie Liang, undersecretary of the Treasury for domestic finance.

The report comes as rescue workers continue to battle raging wildfires in the Los Angeles area. At least 25 people have been killed and 180,000 homeowners have been displaced.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the costs from the fires are still unknown, but noted that the report reflected an ongoing serious problem. During the period studied, there was nearly double the annual total of disasters declared for climate-related events as in the period of 1960-2010 combined.

“Moreover, this [wildfire disaster] does not stand alone as evidence of this impact, with other climate-related events leading to challenges for Americans in finding affordable insurance coverage – from severe storms in the Great Plans to hurricanes in the Southeast,” Yellen said in a statement. “This report identifies alarming trends of rising costs of insurance, all of which threaten the long-term prosperity of American families.”

Both homeowners and insurers in the most-affected areas were paying in other ways as well.

Nonrenewal rates in the highest-risk areas were about 80% higher than those in less-risky areas, while insurers paid average claims of $24,000 in higher-risk areas compared to $19,000 in lowest-risk regions.

In the Southeast, which includes states such as Florida and Louisiana that frequently are slammed by hurricanes, the claim frequency was 20% higher than the national average.

In the Southwest, which includes California, wildfires tore through 3.3 million acres during the time period, with five events causing more than $100 million in damages. The average loss claim was nearly $27,000, or nearly 50% higher than the national average. Nonrenewal rates for insurance were 23.5% higher than the national average.

The Treasury Department released its findings with just three days left in the current administration. Treasury officials said they hope the administration under President-elect Donald Trump uses the report as a springboard for action.

“We certainly are hopeful that our successors stay focused on this issue and continue to produce important research on this issue and think about important and creative ways to address it,” an official said.

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Economics

How bad will the smoke be for Angelenos’ health?

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Where there is fire, there is smoke. For the people of Los Angeles, this will add to the misery. Some are already suffering from burning throats and irritated eyes. Many miles from the wildfires, people are wearing masks; shops are running out. The fires may also cause long-term problems.

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