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European tech brain drain ‘number one risk’ ahead of IPO

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Sebastian Siemiatkowski, CEO of Klarna, speaking at a fintech event in London on Monday, April 4, 2022.

Chris Ratcliffe | Bloomberg via Getty Images

A European technology talent brain drain is the biggest risk factor facing Klarna as the Swedish payments company gets closer to its upcoming initial public offering, according to CEO Sebastian Siemiatkowski.

In a wide-ranging interview with CNBC this week, Siemiatkowski said that unfavorable rules in Europe on employee stock options — a common form of equity compensation tech firms offer to their staff — could lead to Klarna losing talent to technology giants in the U.S. such as Google, Apple and Meta.

As Klarna — which is known for its popular buy now, pay later installment plans — prepares for its IPO, the lack of attractiveness of Europe as a place for the best and brightest to work has become a much more prominent fear, Siemiatkowski told CNBC.

“When we looked at the risks of the IPO, which is a number one risk in my opinion? Our compensation,” said Siemiatkowski, who is approaching his 20th year as CEO of the financial technology firm. He was referring to company risk factors, which are a common element of IPO prospectus filings.

Compared to a basket of its publicly-listed peers, Klarna offers only a fifth of its equity as a share of its revenue, according to a study obtained by CNBC which the company paid consulting firm Compensia to produce. However, the study also showed that Klarna’s publicly-listed peers offer six times the amount of equity that it does.

‘Lack of predictability’

Siemiatkowski said there a number of hurdles blocking Klarna and its European tech peers from offering employees in the region more favorable employee stock option plans, including costs that erode the value of shares they are granted when they join.

Klarna to halve workforce with AI

Affirm, one of Klarna’s closest competitors in the U.S., went public in 2021. Afterpay, another Klarna competitor, was acquired by Jack Dorsey’s payments company Block in 2021 for $29 billion.

Klarna brain drain a ‘risk’

A study by venture capital firm Index Ventures last year found that, on average, employees at late-stage European startups own around 10% of the companies they work for, compared to 20% in the U.S.

Out of a selection of 24 countries, the U.K. ranks highly overall. However, it does a poorer job when it comes to the administration burdens associated with treatment of these plans. Sweden, meanwhile, fares worse, performing badly on factors such as the scope of the plans and strike price, the Index study said.

Asked whether he’s worried Klarna employees may look to leave the company for an American tech firm instead, Siemiakowski said it’s a “risk,” particularly as the firm is expanding aggressively in the U.S.

“The more prominent we become in the U.S market, the more people see us and recognize us — and the more their LinkedIn inbox is going to be pinged by offers from others,” Siemiatkowski told CNBC.

He added that, in Europe, there’s “unfortunately a sentiment that you shouldn’t pay that much to really talented people,” especially when it comes to people working in the financial services industry.

“There is more of that sentiment than in the U.S., and that is unfortunately hurting competitiveness,” Klarna’s co-founder said. “If you get approached by Google, they will fix your visa. They will transfer you to the U.S. These issues that used to be there, they’re not there anymore.”

“The most talented pool is very mobile today,” he added, noting that its now easier for staff to work remotely from a region that’s outside a company’s physical office space.

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These are 3 big things we’re watching in the stock market this week

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A security guard works outside the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) before the Federal Reserve announcement in New York City, U.S., September 18, 2024. 

Andrew Kelly | Reuters

The stock market bounce last week showed once again just how dependent Wall Street has become on the whims of the White House.

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These U.S. consumer stocks face higher China risks

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Apple iPhone assembly in India won’t cushion China tariffs: Moffett

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Street's biggest Apple bear says a production move to India is unrealistic

Leading analyst Craig Moffett suggests any plans to move U.S. iPhone assembly to India is unrealistic.

Moffett, ranked as a top analyst multiple times by Institutional Investor, sent a memo to clients on Friday after the Financial Times reported Apple was aiming to shift production toward India from China by the end of next year.

He’s questioning how a move could bring down costs tied to tariffs because the iPhone components would still be made in China.

“You have a tremendous menu of problems created by tariffs, and moving to India doesn’t solve all the problems. Now granted, it helps to some degree,” the MoffettNathanson partner and senior managing director told CNBC’s “Fast Money” on Friday. “I would question how that’s going to work.”

Moffett contends it’s not so easy to diversify to India — telling clients Apple’s supply chain would still be anchored in China and would likely face resistance.

“The bottom line is a global trade war is a two-front battle, impacting costs and sales. Moving assembly to India might (and we emphasize might) help with the former. The latter may ultimately be the bigger issue,” he wrote to clients.

Moffett cut his Apple price target on Monday to $141 from $184 a share. It implies a 33% drop from Friday’s close. The price target is also the Street low, according to FactSet.

“I don’t think of myself as the biggest Apple bear,” he said. “I think quite highly of Apple. My concern about Apple has been the valuation more than the company.”

Moffett has had a “sell” rating on Apple since Jan. 7. Since then, the company’s shares are down about 14%.

“None of this is because Apple is a bad company. They still have a great balance sheet [and] a great consumer franchise,” he said. “It’s just the reality of there are no good answers when you are a product company, and your products are going to be significantly tariffed, and you’re heading into a market that is likely to have at least some deceleration in consumer demand because of the macro economy.”

Moffett notes Apple also isn’t getting help from its carriers to cushion the blow of tariffs.

“You also have the demand destruction that’s created by potentially higher prices. Remember, you had AT&T, Verizon and T. Mobile all this week come out and say we’re not going to underwrite the additional cost of tariff [on] handsets,” he added. “The consumer is going to have to pay for that. So, you’re going to have some demand destruction that’s going to show up in even longer holding periods and slower upgrade rates — all of which probably trims estimates next year’s consensus.”

According to Moffett, the backlash against Apple in China over U.S. tariffs will also hurt iPhone sales.

“It’s a very real problem,” Moffett said. “Volumes are really going to the Huaweis and the Vivos and the local competitors in China rather than to Apple.”

Apple stock is coming off a winning week — up more than 6%. It comes ahead of the iPhone maker’s quarterly earnings report due next Thursday after the market close.

To get more personalized investment strategies, join us for our next “Fast Money” Live event on Thursday, June 5, at the Nasdaq in Times Square.

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