Connect with us

Economics

Execs willing to pass down higher costs from tariffs to customers, economist says

Published

on

People shop in a supermarket in the Manhattan borough of New York City on Feb. 20, 2025.

Charly Triballeau | AFP | Getty Images

Consumers are certain to face higher sticker prices as businesses prepare to pass on rising costs from tariffs onto buyers, according to EY-Parthenon chief economist Gregory Daco.

In an EY survey of 4,000 executives, nearly half said that they were willing to pass on two-thirds of the added costs from tariffs onto their customers. More than 3 in 10 participants were willing to take it a step further and pass over 90% of the additional expense to shoppers, the poll found.

The observations from the executives come as President Donald Trump‘s 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico took effect on Tuesday, along with an additional 10% duty on imports from China.

Target CEO Brian Cornell recently said that the tariffs on Mexican goods will likely lead to higher prices on produce.

The pace of the current trade war under the second Trump administration has been surprising and “much faster than we had previously seen,” Daco told CNBC. 

The economist’s baseline estimates project tariffs will have a “notable shock” of reducing U.S. gross domestic product by 0.6%, with the assumption of 20% duties on China and an average of 3% tariffs on the rest of the world.

However, “our initial baseline was actually that tariffs would be implemented later,” Daco said.

Even if the Trump administration’s tariffs only last for a short term and are quickly lifted, uncertainty will continue to erode on business confidence — and prices can’t move at the same pace. 

“Businesses today, they don’t care about whether the tariffs are coming tomorrow or in a week — they’re preparing [and] trying to build resilience,” through methods such as increasing inventories and looking toward different supply chains and alternatives, Daco said.

“But doing that has a cost and is inflationary in and of itself. Uncertainty deters economic activity,” he added. 

Specific, targeted tariffs “are extremely painful at the sector level,” but their effects take more time to filter through to consumers, Daco said. Auto, construction and steel producers likely have some inventory currently on hand before they increase costs on consumers, he added.

“So consumers are not going to see, necessarily, the full impact overnight — but very rapidly, they will see auto prices go up — a fridge, building a home, and other things that are going on,” Daco said.

Even if tariffs are quickly lifted, he forecasts higher price levels remaining sticky.

“It’s true that tariffs could be pulled back…. That does not mean that there’s no negative,” said Daco.

Economics

Donald Trump has many ways to hurt Elon Musk

Published

on

THERE WAS a time, not long ago, when an important skill for journalists was translating the code in which powerful people spoke about each other. Carefully prepared speeches and other public remarks would be dissected for hints about the arguments happening in private. Among Donald Trump’s many achievements is upending this system. In his administration people seem to say exactly what they think at any given moment. Wild threats are made—to end habeas corpus; to take Greenland by force—without any follow-through. Journalists must now try to guess what is real and what is for show.

Continue Reading

Economics

Donald Trump has many ways to hurt Elon Musk

Published

on

THERE WAS a time, not long ago, when an important skill for journalists was translating the code in which powerful people spoke about each other. Carefully prepared speeches and other public remarks would be dissected for hints about the arguments happening in private. Among Donald Trump’s many achievements is upending this system. In his administration people seem to say exactly what they think at any given moment. Wild threats are made—to end habeas corpus; to take Greenland by force—without any follow-through. Journalists must now try to guess what is real and what is for show.

Continue Reading

Economics

Jobs report May 2025:

Published

on

U.S. payrolls increased 139,000 in May, more than expected; unemployment at 4.2%

Hiring decreased just slightly in May even as consumers and companies braced against tariffs and a potentially slowing economy, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday.

Nonfarm payrolls rose 139,000 for the month, above the muted Dow Jones estimate for 125,000 and a bit below the downwardly revised 147,000 that the U.S. economy added in April.

The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%. A more encompassing measure that includes discouraged workers and the underemployed also was unchanged, holding at 7.8%.

Worker pay grew more than expected, with average hourly earnings up 0.4% during the month and 3.9% from a year ago, compared with respective forecasts for 0.3% and 3.7%.

“Stronger than expected jobs growth and stable unemployment underlines the resilience of the US labor market in the face of recent shocks,” said Lindsay Rosner, head of multi-sector fixed income investing at Goldman Sachs Asset Management.

Nearly half the job growth came from health care, which added 62,000, even higher than its average gain of 44,000 over the past year. Leisure and hospitality contributed 48,000 while social assistance added 16,000.

On the downside, government lost 22,000 jobs as efforts to cull the federal workforce by President Donald Trump and the Elon Musk-led Department of Government Efficiency began to show an impact.

Stock market futures jumped higher after the release as did Treasury yields.

Though the May numbers were better than expected, there were some underlying trouble spots.

The April count was revised lower by 30,000, while March’s total came down by 65,000 to 120,000.

There also were disparities between the establishment survey, which is used to generate the headline payrolls gain, and the household survey, which is used for the unemployment rate. The latter count, generally more volatile than the establishment survey, showed a decrease of 696,000 workers. Full-time workers declined by 623,000, while part-timers rose by 33,000.

“The May jobs report still has everyone waiting for the other shoe to drop,” said Daniel Zhao, lead economist at job rating site Glassdoor. “This report shows the job market standing tall, but as economic headwinds stack up cumulatively, it’s only a matter of time before the job market starts straining against those headwinds.”

The report comes against a teetering economic background, complicated by Trump’s tariffs and an ever-changing variable of how far he will go to try to level the global playing field for American goods.

Most indicators show that the economy is still a good distance from recession. But sentiment surveys indicate high degrees of anxiety from both consumers and business leaders as they brace for the ultimate impact of how much tariffs will slow business activity and increase inflation.

For their part, Federal Reserve officials are viewing the current landscape with caution.

The central bank holds its next policy meeting in less than two weeks, with markets largely expecting the Fed to stay on hold regarding interest rates. In recent speeches, policymakers have indicated greater concern with the potential for tariff-induced inflation.

“With the Fed laser-focused on managing the risks to the inflation side of its mandate, today’s stronger than expected jobs report will do little to alter its patient approach,” said Rosner, the Goldman Sachs strategist.

Friday also marks the final day before Fed officials head into their quiet period before the meeting, when they do not issue policy remarks.

Don’t miss these insights from CNBC PRO

Continue Reading

Trending