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Expect more chaos in Donald Trump’s tariff policies

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Donald trump has never been shy about expressing his fondness for tariffs. But prior to his return to the White House, many of his supporters thought it more of a negotiating ploy: an aggressive stance meant to prod other countries into concessions. This comforting story now looks like fantasy. Mr Trump has shown himself to be a true believer in trade protectionism. In the process he has raised the average effective tariff on goods entering America from 2.5% last year to about 20%, the highest since the Great Depression.

Economics

Orders for big-ticket items like autos and appliances surged 9.2% in March in rush to beat tariffs

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Companies in March accelerated their orders for big-ticket long-lasting goods ahead of President Donald Trump‘s aggressive tariffs on U.S. imports, the Commerce Department reported Thursday.

So-called durable goods orders soared a seasonally adjusted 9.2% on the month, up from a 0.9% gain in February and well ahead of the Dow Jones forecast for a 1.6% increase. Excluding defense, the increase was even higher, at 10.4%, though the ex-transportation number was flat.

Transportation equipment orders surged 27%, led by a 139% increase in nondefense aircraft and parts. In addition to aircraft and autos, the durables category also includes items such as appliances, computers and jewelry.

In other economic news Thursday, the Labor Department reported that initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to a seasonally adjusted 222,000 for the week ended April 19, an increase of 6,000 though roughly in line with the Wall Street consensus of 220,000.

On the durables goods side, the advanced report reflects a pull-forward effect as Trump dangled threats against U.S. trading partners through March before announcing his “Liberation Day” duties on April 2. Trump slapped a 10% tariff against all imports as well as a select charges against dozens of countries that he ultimately tabled for 90 days for negotiations.

A Federal Reserve report Wednesday indicated that companies were adjusting behavior to get ahead of the Trump tariffs.

The economic summary, known as the “Beige Book,” said companies in particular saw an increase in vehicle sales, which would fall under the durables category, “generally attributed to a rush to purchase ahead of tariff-related price increases.”

The report otherwise showed apprehension about economic conditions, particularly in light of the tariffs, indicating that the burst in durables orders for March is likely not indicative of the long-term broader environment.

On the labor front, the jobless claims report showed that layoffs are not rising despite Trump’s efforts to slice the federal employment rolls.

In addition to the stable weekly numbers, continuing claims, which run a week behind, declined to 1.84 million, down 37,000 from the prior week. Claims in Washington, D.C., also fell, down to 753, or a decrease of 112 from the prior week, according to unadjusted numbers.

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Economics

German finance minister prefers zero for zero tariff solution

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I’m optimistic we’ll resolve our differences, Germany's finance minister says

The trust between Europe and the U.S. is not yet broken despite President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff policies, Joerg Kukies, acting German finance minister, told CNBC Thursday.

“For trust to be broken, a lot more would have to happen because the transatlantic partnership has been built over so many decades that we will not get carried away by the statement of tariffs,” he told CNBC’s Carolin Roth on the sidelines of the IMF World Bank Spring Meetings.

Kukies added that during a previous visit to Washington, soon after the 25% tariffs on all cars imported to the U.S. was announced, there did appear to be interest in coming to an agreement.

Europe and the U.S. have different interests and both parties need to understand one another’s viewpoints, he said. “But this is not the first time ever that the United States and Europe are negotiating over tariffs, so I don’t think we’re anywhere near a crisis moment.”

Kukies struck a positive tone when referring to talks, saying “everything is going in negotiation mode” with the bloc “optimistic” that it can resolve the differences.

A zero-for-zero tariff agreement would be his preferred outcome, Kukies stated. This aligns with what European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has advocated for.

However, Trump has already rejected a proposal from the European Union for a deal which would see zero percent duties on industrial goods imported from the U.S. as well as on imports from the EU.

Germany is currently subject to 10% tariffs — the temporarily reduced rate announced by Trump after the initially imposed 20% duties.

The country’s struggling economy is heavily reliant on trade, as the U.S. serves as its most important trading partner. Tariff turmoil led by Trump is therefore expected to hit Germany especially hard.

Earlier on Thursday, the German government revised its forecast for the country’s economic growth lower, saying it was now expecting stagnation in 2025. This compares to January’s estimate of 0.3% growth.

Acting economy minister Robert Habeck in a press conference cited U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade policies and their impact on the German economy as the main reason for the downward revision.

The IMF in its latest World Economic Outlook, which was published earlier this week, also cut its expectations for the German economy with the body now projecting a 0.2% contraction.

Germany’s economy has been struggling for some time, contracting in both 2023 and 2024 on an annual basis. The country has however avoided a technical recession, which is characterized by two consecutive quarters of contraction. The latest gross domestic product data is slated to be released next week.

There could however also be some positives on the horizon after a major fiscal package, which could lead to a major investment boost, was enshrined in Germany’s constitution earlier this year. It included changes to the long-standing debt brake rule that are set to enable higher defense spending, as well as a 500 billion euro ($569 billion) infrastructure investment fund.

Germany’s debt brake limits how much debt the government can take on and dictates the size of the federal government’s structural budget deficit

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Economics

America’s poster-in-chief is very, very online

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Compared with his first term, Donald Trump writes less about the economy and more about himself

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