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Fed Governor Waller says inflation softening faster than he expected put him in half-point-cut camp

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Fed Governor Waller says inflation softening faster than he expected put him in half-point-cut camp

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said Friday he supported a half percentage point rate cut at this week’s meeting because inflation is falling even faster than he had expected.

Citing recent data on consumer and producer prices, Waller told CNBC that the data is showing core inflation, excluding food and energy, in the Fed’s preferred measure is running below 1.8% over the past four months. The Fed targets annual inflation at 2%.

“That is what put me back a bit to say, wow, inflation is softening much faster than I thought it was going to, and that is what put me over the edge to say, look, I think 50 [basis points] is the right thing to do,” Waller said during an interview with CNBC’s Steve Liesman.

Both the consumer and producer price indexes showed increases of 0.2% for the month. On a 12-month basis, the CPI ran at a 2.5% rate.

However, Waller said the more recent data has shown an even stronger trend lower, thus giving the Fed space to ease more as it shifts its focus to supporting the softening labor market.

A week before the Fed meeting, markets were overwhelmingly pricing in a 25 basis point cut. A basis point equals 0.01%.

“The point is, we do have room to move, and that is what the committee is signaling,” he said.

The Fed’s action to cut by half a percentage point, or 50 basis points, brought its key borrowing rate down to a range between 4.75%-5%. Along with the decision, individual officials signaled the likelihood of another half point in cuts this year, followed by a full percentage point of reductions in 2025.

Fed Governor Michelle Bowman was the only Federal Open Market Committee member to vote against the reduction, instead preferring a smaller quarter percentage point cut. She released a statement Friday explaining her opposition, which marked the first “no” vote by a governor since 2005.

“Although it is important to recognize that there has been meaningful progress on lowering inflation, while core inflation remains around or above 2.5 percent, I see the risk that the Committee’s larger policy action could be interpreted as a premature declaration of victory on our price stability mandate,” Bowman said.

As for the future path of rates, Waller indicated there are a number of scenarios that could unfold, with each depending on how the economic data runs.

Futures market pricing shifter after Waller spoke, with traders now pricing in about a 50-50 chance of another half percentage point reduction at the Nov. 6-7 meeting, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch.

“I was a big advocate of large rate hikes when inflation was moving much, much faster than any of us expected,” he said. “I would feel the same way on the downside to protect our credibility of maintaining a 2% inflation target. If the data starts coming in soft and continues to come in soft, I would be much more willing to be aggressive on rate cuts to get inflation closer to our target.”

The Fed gets another look at inflation data next week when the Commerce Department releases the August report on the personal consumption expenditures price index, the central bank’s preferred measure. Chair Jerome Powell said Wednesday that the Fed’s economists expect the measure to show inflation running at a 2.2% annual pace. A year ago, it had been at 3.3%.

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Fintech unicorns watch Klarna IPO for signs of when window will reopen

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Hiroki Takeuchi, co-founder and CEO of GoCardless. 

Zed Jameson | Bloomberg | Getty Images

LISBON, Portugal — Financial technology unicorns aren’t in a rush to go public after buy now, pay later firm Klarna filed for a U.S. IPO — but they’re keeping a watchful eye on it for signs of when the market will open up again.

Last week, Klarna made a confidential filing to go public in the U.S., ending months of speculation over where the Swedish digital payments firm would list. Timing of the IPO is still unclear, and Klarna has yet to decide on pricing or the number of shares it’ll issue to the public.

Still, the development drew buzz from fintech circles with market watchers asking if the move marks the start of a resurgence in big fintech IPOs. For now, that doesn’t appear to be the case — however, founders say they’ll be watching the IPO market, eyeing pricing and eventually stock performance closely.

Hiroki Takeuchi, CEO of online payments startup GoCardless, said last week that it’s not yet time for his company to fire the starting gun on an IPO. He views listing as more of a milestone on a journey than an end goal.

“The markets have been challenging over the last few years,” Takeuchi, whose business GoCardless was last valued at over $2 billion, said in a CNBC-moderated panel at the Web Summit tech conference in Lisbon, Portugal.

“We need to be focused on building a better business,” Takeuchi added, noting that “the rest will follow” if the startup gets that right. GoCardless specializes in recurring payments, transactions that come out of a consumer’s bank account in a routine fashion — such as a monthly donation to charity.

Lucy Liu, co-founder of cross-border payments firm Airwallex, agreed with Takeuchi and said it’s also not the right time for Airwallex to go public. In a separate interview, Liu directed CNBC to what her fellow Airwallex co-founder and CEO Jack Zhang has said previously — that the firm expects to be “IPO-ready” by 2026.

“Every company is different,” Liu said onstage, sat alongside Takeuchi on the same panel. Airwallex is more focused on becoming the best it can be at solving friction in global cross-border payments, she said.

An IPO is a goal in the company’s trajectory — but it’s not the final milestone, according to Liu. “We’re constantly in conversations with our investors shareholders,” she said, adding that will change “when the time is right.”

‘Stars aligning’ for fintech IPOs

One thing’s for sure, though — analysts are much more optimistic about the outlook for fintech IPOs now than they were before.

'Phantom debt' is flying under the radar — and it could be a problem for the U.S. economy

“We outlined five handles to open the [IPO] window, and I think those stars are aligning in terms of the macro, interest rates, politics, the elections are out the way, volatility,” Navina Rajan, senior research analyst at private market data firm PitchBook, told CNBC.

“It’s definitely in a better place, but at the end of the day, we don’t know what’s going to happen, there’s a new president in the U.S.,” Rajan continued. “It will be interesting to see the timing of the IPO and also the valuation.”

Fintech companies have raised around 6.2 billion euros ($6.6 billion) in venture capital from the beginning of the year through Oct. 30, according to PitchBook data.

Jaidev Janardana, CEO and co-founder of British digital bank Zopa, told CNBC that an IPO is not an immediate priority for his firm.

“To be honest, it’s not the top of mind for me,” Janardana told CNBC. “I think we continue to be lucky to have supportive and long-term shareholders who support future growth as well.”

He implied private markets are currently still the most accommodative place to be able to build a technology business that’s focused on investing in growth.

However, Zopa’s CEO added that he’s seeing signs pointing toward a more favorable IPO market in the next couple of years, with the U.S. likely opening up in 2025.

That should mean that Europe becomes more open to IPOs happening the following year, according to Janardana. He didn’t disclose where Zopa is looking to go public.

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China’s Tencent sees opportunity in female Honor of Kings mobile gamers

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Tencent’s Honor of Kings mobile game drew a record 33,000 fans to watch a final competition in Beijing on Nov. 16, 2024.

CNBC | Evelyn Cheng

BEIJING — Chinese gaming giant Tencent is betting on a rise in female players worldwide for its mobile game Honor of Kings, which rolled out to the U.S. and other countries in June.

Already a hit in China, the game drew a record 33,000 fans to a Beijing stadium on Saturday to watch two teams compete for a $3 million grand prize.

Surprisingly, many in the crowd were young women, reflecting how interest in mobile games has broadened out from the stereotypical male player in the days of console and PC gaming.

Launched in China in November 2015, the game’s appeal lies in its easy learning curve and relatively short sessions of around 15 minutes. Anyone with a smartphone can play for free in real time, on the go.

“Honor of Kings became an important way for me to socialize,” said Tianyun Gao, according to CNBC’s translation of her spoken Mandarin. She started playing the game in 2017 as a sophomore in college and became a professional commentator for the game’s competitions a year later.

Gao, an English major from Shanghai, has moderated Honor of Kings’ competitions in two languages, including an international event held in Riyadh, the capital of Saudi Arabia, in August. She said her hope is to see esports become as mainstream as traditional sports, noting that one of her inspirations is a Chinese soccer commentator.

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Tencent ramped up its global expansion plans for Honor of Kings this year, with its subsidiary, Level Infinite, in February announcing a $15 million investment in developing the game’s tournament worldwide.

An international version of the game has been available since 2016 under different names such as Arena of Valor, but the latest global push for Honor of Kings began in 2022. The game didn’t reach the Middle East until earlier this year and only launched in the key markets of North America, Europe and Japan in June.

Less than a month later, the game topped 50 million downloads outside China, according to the company.

Overwhelmingly mobile-focused

Growth in gaming among women stems largely from their preference in playing on their smartphones, without having to invest in consoles and other technology.

“Nearly half of female players play only on mobile platforms so we have a huge addressable audience,” said Jackie Huang, head of the Honor of Kings global esports division within Tencent Games’ TiMi L1 Studio. “Women make up a significant part of our player base but we want to see this continue growing.”

He said that 45% of gamers globally are women, and that the gender composition of Honor of Kings’ users is “relatively balanced. “We strive to provide users, no matter how they identify, with [a] high quality gaming experience,” Huang said.

Gaming is Tencent’s biggest revenue driver, with international games accounting for around 28% of the its overall gaming business in the third quarter.

The company also owns Riot Games, a developer whose PC-based League of Legends has become one of the most popular names in global esports with its own annual competition. Honor of Kings, which claims 100 million players a day, uses a similar format with two teams of five players each.

Such multiplayer games are the second-most popular category for female gamers, behind puzzles, said Xiaofeng Zeng, China-based vice president at gaming research firm Niko Partners. His analysis found that 95% of women prefer mobile games.

If Honor of Kings can hold first place in China, and achieve that position overseas, then Tencent can generate half its revenue from international markets, Zeng said. He said the game’s top overseas markets by revenue are the U.S., India, Malaysia, and Indonesia.

And in the key market of Southeast Asia, Zeng said that due to a low base, female players are growing two to three times more quickly than male gamers. A newly branded Honor of Kings global championship was held last month in Jakarta, Indonesia’s capital, with Malaysian team Black Shrew Esports winning the $300,000 first prize.

Early stages

For now, no matter how popular Honor of Kings may be among women, the competitions remain dominated by men. The two teams competing in Beijing on Saturday consisted only of male players.

Huang pointed out that the global championship this year featured a female player from France’s Team Vitality, which is also managed and coached by women.

He attributed the Honor of King’s popularity among women to the game’s playable characters that are also female. Many of the figures, each with different powers, are based on Chinese historical or mythological figures.

In 2021, organizers of the Honor of Kings competition in China also launched a tournament for female players. This year’s womens finals are set to take place in December, with a prize of around $41,000 for the winning team.

“The pandemic was a large accelerator of females into the games space and we have continued to see increased engagement from female gamers,” said Chirag Ambwani, SVP, gaming and entertainment, at SensorTower, which focuses on mobile games.

Reasons include specialized and easy to access content, he said, adding that gaming participation grew overall.

As for Honor of Kings’ global expansion, Ambwani said SensorTower research showed “healthy growth,” with average revenue of more than $5 per user in the U.S. and Canada.

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Druckenmiller bought regional banks but health-care pick is his biggest bet

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Key Points

  • Billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller built a sizable position in regional banks and made one health-care name his biggest position last quarter.
  • Druckenmiller bought $115 million worth of shares in the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF in the third quarter, making it the firm’s seventh-biggest holding.

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