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Fed jumbo 50 bps rate cut should not raise alarm, analyst says

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Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.

Andrew Harnik | Getty Images

The U.S. Federal Reserve can afford to make a jumbo 50 basis point rate cut next week without spooking markets, an analyst has suggested, as opinion on the central bank’s forthcoming meeting remains hotly divided.

Michael Yoshikami, CEO of Destination Wealth Management, said Monday that a bigger cut would demonstrate that the central bank is ready to act without signaling deeper concerns of a broader downturn.

“I would not be surprised if they jumped all the way to 50 basis points,” Yoshikami told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe.”

“That would be considered, on one hand, a very positive sign the Fed is doing what is needed to support jobs growth,” he said. “I think the Fed at this point is ready to get out ahead of this.”

His comment follow similar remarks Friday from Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz, who said the Fed should deliver a half-point interest rate cut at its next meeting, contending that it went “too far, too fast” with its previous policy tightening.

Fed rate cut of 50 basis points in September would not be surprising, wealth manager says

Policymakers are widely expected to lower rates when they meet on Sept. 17-18, but the extent of the move remains unclear. A disappointing jobs print on Friday stoked fears of a slowing labor market and briefly tipped market expectations toward a larger cut, before shifting back.

Traders are now pricing in around a 75% chance of a 25 bps rate cut in September, while 25% are pricing in a 50 bps rate reduction, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.

Yoshikami acknowledged that a larger cut could reinforce fears that a “recessionary ball” is coming, but he insisted that such views were overblown, noting that both unemployment and interest rates remain low by historic levels and company earnings have been strong.

He said the recent market sell-off, which saw the S&P 500 notch its worst week since March 2023, was based on “massive profits” accrued last month. August saw all the major indices post gains despite a volatile start to the month, while September is traditionally a weaker trading period.

Not concerned about a U.S. recession, CIO says

Thanos Papasavvas, founder and chief investment officer of ABP Invest, also acknowledged a “rise in concern” around a potential economic downturn.

The research firm recently adjusted its probability of a U.S. recession to a “relatively contained” 30% from a “mild” 25% in June. However, Papasavvas said that the underlying components of the economy — manufacturing and unemployment rates — were “still resilient.”

“We’re not particularly concerned that we’re heading into a U.S. recession,” Papasavvas told CNBC Monday.

The perspectives stand in stark contrast to other market watchers, such as economist George Lagarias, who told CNBC last week that a bumper rate cut could be “very dangerous.”

“I don’t see the urgency for the 50 [basis point] cut,” Forvis Mazars’ chief economist told CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”

“The 50 [basis point] cut might send a wrong message to markets and the economy. It might send a message of urgency and, you know, that could be a self-fulfilling prophecy,” Lagarias added.

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Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: HIMS, TEM, FANG

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Anthropic closes in on $3.5 billion funding round

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Dario Amodei, Anthropic CEO, speaking on CNBC’s Squawk Box outside the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland on Jan. 21st, 2025.

Gerry Miller | CNBC

Anthropic is in talks to raise a $3.5 billion funding round, significantly more than the amount previously expected, CNBC has confirmed.

The round would roughly triple the artificial intelligence startup’s valuation to $61.5 billion, according to two sources familiar with the deal, who asked not to be named because the details aren’t public. Lightspeed Ventures is leading the funding, with participation from General Catalyst and others, the sources said.

The financing, which was first reported by the Wall Street Journal, signals continued investor demand for top-tier AI companies, even in the face of potential disruption from China’s DeepSeek. Anthropic is backed by Amazon and Google, and had initially set out to raise $2 billion, according to a source.

Anthropic declined to comment.

The company’s last private market valuation was $18 billion. Amazon has poured $8 billion into the startup.

Anthropic was founded by early OpenAI employees and is the creator of the popular chatbot Claude. Earlier Monday, Anthropic released what it says is it’s “most intelligent AI model yet. Its so-called hybrid model combines an ability to reason — or stopping to think about complex answers — with a traditional model that spits out answers in real time.

WATCH: Anthropic unveils newest AI model

Amazon-backed Anthropic unveils newest AI-model

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Jamie Dimon calls U.S. government ‘inefficient,’ touts Elon Musk’s DOGE effort

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Watch CNBC's full interview with JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon on Monday said the U.S. government is inefficient and in need of work as the Trump administration terminates thousands of federal employees and works to dismantle agencies including the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.

Dimon was asked by CNBC’s Leslie Picker whether he supported efforts by Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency. He declined to give what he called a “binary” response, but made comments that supported the overall effort.

“The government is inefficient, not very competent, and needs a lot of work,” Dimon told Picker. “It’s not just waste and fraud, its outcomes.”

The Trump administration’s effort to rein in spending and scrutinize federal agencies “needs to be done,” Dimon added.

“Why are we spending the money on these things? Are we getting what we deserve? What should we change?” Dimon said. “It’s not just about the deficit, its about building the right policies and procedures and the government we deserve.”

Dimon said if DOGE overreaches with its cost-cutting efforts or engages in activity that’s not legal, “the courts will stop it.”

“I’m hoping it’s quite successful,” he said.

In the wide-ranging interview, Dimon also addressed his company’s push to have most workers in office five days a week, as well as his views on the Ukraine conflict, tariffs and the U.S. consumer.

Watch CNBC's full interview with JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon

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