Finance

Fed jumbo 50 bps rate cut should not raise alarm, analyst says

Published

2 months ago

September 9, 2024

Business Finance News

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.

Andrew Harnik | Getty Images

The U.S. Federal Reserve can afford to make a jumbo 50 basis point rate cut next week without spooking markets, an analyst has suggested, as opinion on the central bank’s forthcoming meeting remains hotly divided.

Michael Yoshikami, CEO of Destination Wealth Management, said Monday that a bigger cut would demonstrate that the central bank is ready to act without signaling deeper concerns of a broader downturn.

“I would not be surprised if they jumped all the way to 50 basis points,” Yoshikami told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe.”

“That would be considered, on one hand, a very positive sign the Fed is doing what is needed to support jobs growth,” he said. “I think the Fed at this point is ready to get out ahead of this.”

His comment follow similar remarks Friday from Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz, who said the Fed should deliver a half-point interest rate cut at its next meeting, contending that it went “too far, too fast” with its previous policy tightening.

Fed rate cut of 50 basis points in September would not be surprising, wealth manager says

Policymakers are widely expected to lower rates when they meet on Sept. 17-18, but the extent of the move remains unclear. A disappointing jobs print on Friday stoked fears of a slowing labor market and briefly tipped market expectations toward a larger cut, before shifting back.

Traders are now pricing in around a 75% chance of a 25 bps rate cut in September, while 25% are pricing in a 50 bps rate reduction, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.

Yoshikami acknowledged that a larger cut could reinforce fears that a “recessionary ball” is coming, but he insisted that such views were overblown, noting that both unemployment and interest rates remain low by historic levels and company earnings have been strong.

He said the recent market sell-off, which saw the S&P 500 notch its worst week since March 2023, was based on “massive profits” accrued last month. August saw all the major indices post gains despite a volatile start to the month, while September is traditionally a weaker trading period.

Not concerned about a U.S. recession, CIO says

Thanos Papasavvas, founder and chief investment officer of ABP Invest, also acknowledged a “rise in concern” around a potential economic downturn.

The research firm recently adjusted its probability of a U.S. recession to a “relatively contained” 30% from a “mild” 25% in June. However, Papasavvas said that the underlying components of the economy — manufacturing and unemployment rates — were “still resilient.”

“We’re not particularly concerned that we’re heading into a U.S. recession,” Papasavvas told CNBC Monday.

The perspectives stand in stark contrast to other market watchers, such as economist George Lagarias, who told CNBC last week that a bumper rate cut could be “very dangerous.”

“I don’t see the urgency for the 50 [basis point] cut,” Forvis Mazars’ chief economist told CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”

“The 50 [basis point] cut might send a wrong message to markets and the economy. It might send a message of urgency and, you know, that could be a self-fulfilling prophecy,” Lagarias added.

Finance

U.S. ‘industrial renaissance’ is driving a rebound in fundraising

Published

2 hours ago

November 20, 2024

Business Finance News

Jonathan Gray, president and chief operating officer of Blackstone Inc., from left, Ron O’Hanley, chief executive officer of State Street Corp., Ted Pick, chief executive officer of Morgan Stanley, Marc Rowan, chief executive officer of Apollo Global Management LLC, and David Solomon, chief executive officer of Goldman Sachs Group Inc., during the Global Financial Leaders’ Investment Summit in Hong Kong, China, on Tuesday, Nov. 19, 2024.

Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

An “industrial renaissance” in the U.S. is fueling demand for capital, Marc Rowan, CEO of Apollo Global Management said at the Global Financial Leaders’ Investment Summit in Hong Kong.

“There is so much demand for capital, [including through debt and equity] … What’s going on is nothing short of extraordinary,” Rowan said on Tuesday during a panel discussion.

This demand has been supported by massive government spending, particularly on infrastructure, the semiconductor industry and projects under the Inflation Reduction Act, said the asset manager, who is reportedly in the running for Treasury Secretary position under President-elect Donald Trump.

“What we’re watching is this incredible demand for capital happening against a backdrop of a U.S. government that is running significant deficits. And so the capital raising business, I think that’s going to be a good business,” he said.

Industrial policies, including the CHIPS and Science Act and the 2021 infrastructure legislation, warrant billions in spending.

Rowan added that the U.S. has been the largest recipient of foreign direct investment over the past three years and is expected to stay at the top spot this year as well.

Rowan and other panelists also identified energy and data centers — needed for artificial intelligence and digitization — as growth sectors requiring more capital.

Blackstone President and COO Jonathan Gray told the panel that data centers were the biggest theme across his entire firm, with the company employing billions on their development.

“We’re doing it in equity, we’re doing it financing … this is a space we like a lot, and we will continue to be all in as it relates to digital infrastructure.”

Fundraising and M&A recovery

Other panelists at the summit organized by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority said that capital raising was well-positioned to recover from a recent slowdown.

According to David Solomon, Chairman and CEO of Goldman Sachs, capital raising activity had reached peak levels in 2020 and 2021 amid massive Covid-era stimulus but later became muted amid the war in Ukraine, inflation pressures and tighter regulation from the Federal Trade Commission.

There has been a recent pick up in activity as conditions have normalized, along with expectations of friendlier regulation on dealmaking from the FTC under the incoming Donald Trump administration, Solomon said.

While there remains an inflationary backdrop and other risks in the current environment, Ted Pick, CEO of Morgan Stanley said that the consumer and corporate community are “by in large, in good shape” as the economy continues to grow.

“This environment has been one where, if you are in the business of allocating capital, it’s been great,” he said, adding that the group was now gearing up to get into “raising capital mode.”

“That is [the] hallmark of a growing and thriving economy, which is where the classic underwriting and mergers and acquisitions businesses take hold,” he said.

Solomon predicted that these trends would see “more robust” capital raising and M&A activity in 2025.

Finance

Visa & Mastercard execs grilled by senators on high swipe fees

Published

9 hours ago

November 19, 2024

Business Finance News

The Senate Judiciary Committee convened on Tuesday for a hearing on the alleged Visa–Mastercard “duopoly,” which committee members from both sides of the aisle say has left retailers and other small businesses with no ability to negotiate interchange fees on credit card transactions.

“This is an odd grouping. The most conservative and the most liberal members happen to agree that we have to do something about this situation,” committee chair and Democratic Illinois Sen. Dick Durbin said.

Interchange fees, also known as swipe fees, are paid from a merchant’s bank account to the cardholder’s bank, whenever a customer uses a credit card in a retail purchase. Visa and Mastercard have a combined market cap of more than $1 trillion, and control 80% of the market.

“In 2023 alone, Visa and Mastercard charged merchants more than $100 billion in credit card fees, mostly in the form of interchange fees,” Durbin told the committee.

Durbin, along with Republican Kansas Sen. Roger Marshall, have co-sponsored the bipartisan Credit Card Competition Act, which takes aim at Visa and Mastercard’s market dominance by requiring banks with more than $100 billion in assets to offer at least one other payment network on their cards, besides Visa and Mastercard.

“This way, small businesses would finally have a real choice: they can route credit card transactions on the Visa or Mastercard network and continue to pay interchange fees that often rank as their second or biggest expense, or they could select a lower cost alternative,” Durbin told the committee.

Visa and Mastercard, however, stand by their swipe fees.

“We consider them incentives, some people might consider them penalties. But if you can adopt new technology that reduces the risk and takes fraud out of the system and improves streamlined processing, then you would qualify for lower interchange rates,” said Bill Sheedy, senior advisor to Visa CEO Ryan McInerney. “It’s very expensive to issue a product and to provide payment guarantee and online customer service, zero liability. All of those things, and many more, senator, get factored into interchange [fees].”

The executives also warned against the Credit Card Competition Act, with Sheedy claiming that it “would remove consumer control over their own payment decisions, reduce competition, impose technology sharing mandates and pick winners and losers by favoring certain competitors over others.”

“Why do we know this? Because we’ve seen it before,” Mastercard President of Americas Linda Kirkpatrick said, in reference to the Durbin amendment to the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act, which required the Fed to limit fees on retailers for transactions using debit cards. “Since debit regulation took hold, debit rewards were eliminated, fees went up, access to capital diminished, and competition was stifled.”

But the current high credit card swipe fees for retailers translate to higher prices for consumers, the National Retail Federation told the committee in a letter ahead of the hearing. The Credit Card Competition Act, the retail industry’s largest trade association wrote, will deliver “fairness and transparency to the payment system and relief to American business and consumers.”

“When we think of consumer spending, credit card swipe fees are not the first thing that comes to mind, yet those fees are a surprisingly large part of consumer spending,” Notre Dame University law professor Roger Alford said. “Last year, the average American spent $1,100 in swipe fees, more than they spent on pets, coffee or alcohol.”

Visa and Mastercard agreed to a $30 billion settlement in March meant to reduce their swipe fees by four basis points for three years, but a federal judge rejected the settlement in June, saying they could afford to pay more.

Visa is also battling a Justice Department lawsuit filed in September. The payment network is accused of maintaining an illegal monopoly over debit card payment networks, which has affected “the price of nearly everything,” according to Attorney General Merrick Garland.