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Fed jumbo 50 bps rate cut should not raise alarm, analyst says

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Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.

Andrew Harnik | Getty Images

The U.S. Federal Reserve can afford to make a jumbo 50 basis point rate cut next week without spooking markets, an analyst has suggested, as opinion on the central bank’s forthcoming meeting remains hotly divided.

Michael Yoshikami, CEO of Destination Wealth Management, said Monday that a bigger cut would demonstrate that the central bank is ready to act without signaling deeper concerns of a broader downturn.

“I would not be surprised if they jumped all the way to 50 basis points,” Yoshikami told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe.”

“That would be considered, on one hand, a very positive sign the Fed is doing what is needed to support jobs growth,” he said. “I think the Fed at this point is ready to get out ahead of this.”

His comment follow similar remarks Friday from Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz, who said the Fed should deliver a half-point interest rate cut at its next meeting, contending that it went “too far, too fast” with its previous policy tightening.

Fed rate cut of 50 basis points in September would not be surprising, wealth manager says

Policymakers are widely expected to lower rates when they meet on Sept. 17-18, but the extent of the move remains unclear. A disappointing jobs print on Friday stoked fears of a slowing labor market and briefly tipped market expectations toward a larger cut, before shifting back.

Traders are now pricing in around a 75% chance of a 25 bps rate cut in September, while 25% are pricing in a 50 bps rate reduction, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.

Yoshikami acknowledged that a larger cut could reinforce fears that a “recessionary ball” is coming, but he insisted that such views were overblown, noting that both unemployment and interest rates remain low by historic levels and company earnings have been strong.

He said the recent market sell-off, which saw the S&P 500 notch its worst week since March 2023, was based on “massive profits” accrued last month. August saw all the major indices post gains despite a volatile start to the month, while September is traditionally a weaker trading period.

Not concerned about a U.S. recession, CIO says

Thanos Papasavvas, founder and chief investment officer of ABP Invest, also acknowledged a “rise in concern” around a potential economic downturn.

The research firm recently adjusted its probability of a U.S. recession to a “relatively contained” 30% from a “mild” 25% in June. However, Papasavvas said that the underlying components of the economy — manufacturing and unemployment rates — were “still resilient.”

“We’re not particularly concerned that we’re heading into a U.S. recession,” Papasavvas told CNBC Monday.

The perspectives stand in stark contrast to other market watchers, such as economist George Lagarias, who told CNBC last week that a bumper rate cut could be “very dangerous.”

“I don’t see the urgency for the 50 [basis point] cut,” Forvis Mazars’ chief economist told CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”

“The 50 [basis point] cut might send a wrong message to markets and the economy. It might send a message of urgency and, you know, that could be a self-fulfilling prophecy,” Lagarias added.

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Stock picking small caps may boost performance right now

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ETF Edge, October 14, 2024

Stock picking may be the key to getting exposure to small caps.

Rob Harvey, who’s behind the Dimensional U.S. Small Cap ETF, uses an actively managed approach to buying the group. He’s trying to avoid small caps that are underperforming and dragging down the index.

“There’s no reason to hold companies that really are scraping the bottom of the barrel in terms of profitability,” the firm’s co-head of product specialists told CNBC’s “ETF Edge” this week. “You remove those from your small cap universe, [and] you can do a lot for boosting returns.”

The Russell 2000, which tracks small caps, is up more than 12% so far this year. Meanwhile, the broader S&P 500 is up about 23% in the same time frame.

As of Thursday, the fund’s top holdings were Sprouts Farmers Market, Abercrombie & Fitch, Fabrinet, according to the Dimensional Fund Advisors website. However, its top holding is cash and cash equivalents, which accounts for 1.13% of the fund.

Ben Slavin, who’s global head of ETFs for BNY Mellon notes investors are looking for more actively managed products to screen out small cap laggards.

“Investor sentiment has shifted towards small caps, and you see that in the numbers, in terms of where investors are putting their dollars, from a flow standpoint,” said Slavin. “These types of strategies are benefitting.”

As of Friday’s close, the Dimension U.S. Small Cap ETF is underperforming the Russell 2000 by more than one percent this year.

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Biden administration forgives $4.5 million in student debt for 60,000 borrowers

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Borrowers who serve in the public service sector and government are eligible for this forgiveness.  (iStock )

Another 60,000 student loan borrowers will receive student loan relief in the coming weeks. The Biden Administration announced $4.5 billion in relief for public service workers such as nurses, teachers and social workers.

The relief comes as a fix to the original Public Service Loan Forgiveness (PSLF) program. The program was initially signed into law by George W. Bush in 2007 to give non-profit and government employees loan forgiveness after 10 years in the workforce.

“Before President Biden and Vice President Harris entered the White House, the Public Service Loan Forgiveness program was so riddled by dysfunction that just 7,000 Americans ever qualified,” U.S. Secretary of Education Miguel Cardona said in the Education Department’s press release.

The new relief intends to pay down the loans of borrowers who were originally denied acceptance or who have still not received relief after making the 120 required monthly payments.

“Today’s announcement comes on top of the significant progress we’ve made for students and borrowers over the past three years,” President Joe Biden said in a statement.

“That includes approving debt cancelation for nearly 5 million Americans across all our various debt relief actions; providing the largest increases to the maximum Pell Grant award in over a decade; fixing Income-Driven Repayment so borrowers get the relief they earned; and holding colleges accountable for taking advantage of students and families,” Biden said.

If you have private student loans, federal relief doesn’t apply to you, unfortunately. If you’re looking to lower monthly payments and ease the burden of student loan debt, consider refinancing. See what your interest rate could be via the online marketplace Credible.

IS COLLEGE DEBT WORTH IT?

Resources available for students affected by the recent hurricanes

Hurricanes Helene and Milton have wreaked havoc on many communities in the south, causing serious physical damage and severely disrupting educational services. In response, the U.S. Department of Education released resources to help students and institutions of higher education recover.

“I have directed our team at the Department of Education to leverage every possible resource available to meet the needs of impacted students, families and school communities,” Cardona said.

The new resources include support for recovery needs like mental health care for students and educators, technical assistance and flexible financial aid policies at affected universities. Many students are also automatically being enrolled in natural disaster forbearance, so they don’t have to worry about their loans while recovering from the hurricanes.

Most of these resources will be concentrated on Georgia, which has seen a substantial amount of damage. The Readiness and Emergency Management for Schools Technical Assistance Center is a specific program Georgians have access to. It helps education agencies manage their safety, security and emergency management programs.

The Early Childhood Technical Assistance Center is another option that offers resources and links from organizations that help families and children, including those with disabilities, cope with disasters. 

If you don’t have federal student loans that qualify for assistance, refinancing could cut your monthly payment. You can use Credible to compare student loan refinancing rates from multiple private lenders all at once without affecting your credit score.

STUDENT LOAN DEBT HAS INCREASED BY 430% SINCE 2003 – HERE’S HOW TO LOWER YOUR DEBT

$70 million in federal funding going to schools for additional mental health services

Along with aid to student loan borrowers and students affected by natural disasters, the Biden administration is also directing federal funding towards mental health services in K-12 schools. The administration announced a $70 million investment that will expand students’ access to mental health support.

“We know that students are more likely to access mental health support if it’s offered in schools, and our educators and school communities are on the front lines when a student is struggling,” Cardona said in the announcement.

“The need for mental health support in our schools remains high,” Cardona said. “Today’s announcement of an additional $70 million will allow more institutions and schools to train and hire mental health professionals – especially in underserved communities – ensuring that every student has access to the care they need to thrive.”

The new funding, combined with the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act (BSCA) investments, will go to 333 grantees across 48 states. It will help communities train and hire 4,000 more mental health professionals across the country.

To see what you’d pay on a private student loan, you can visit Credible today to view a rates table that allows you to compare fixed and variable rates from multiple lenders.

LESS THAN A THIRD OF AMERICANS APPROVE OF HOW BIDEN HAS HANDLED STUDENT LOAN DEBT

Have a finance-related question, but don’t know who to ask? Email The Credible Money Expert at [email protected] and your question might be answered by Credible in our Money Expert column.

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Finance

Stocks making the biggest moves midday: Netflix, Apple, CVS Health, Lamb Weston, United States Cellular and more

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These are the stocks posting the largest moves in midday trading.

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