Connect with us

Personal Finance

Fed likely to hold rates steady, but some borrowing costs are easing

Published

on

Recession risks are a little overblown, according to Societe Generale's U.S. Rates Strategy Head

The Federal Reserve is expected to hold interest rates steady at the end of its two-day meeting next week, despite some encouraging news on inflation. 

Although inflation receded last month, an escalating trade war threatens to cause prices to rise on a wide range of consumer goods going forward.

“This is likely just the beginning with tariffs on Europe and universal ones to follow suit over the coming weeks,” Andrzej Skiba, head of U.S. fixed income at RBC Global Asset Management, said in an email. “This will be inflationary, and the Fed won’t likely be able to cut rates in this environment.”

More from Personal Finance:
What financial advisors tell investors about market turmoil
Rules for repaying Social Security benefits just got stricter
Consumer outlook sinks as recession fears take hold

The federal funds rate sets what banks charge each other for overnight lending, but also affects many of the borrowing and savings rates Americans see every day.

“Consumers are stretched and stressed,” said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.com.

Once the federal funds rate comes down, consumers may see their borrowing costs decrease across a variety of consumer debt such as auto loans, credit cards and mortgages, making it cheaper to borrow money. 

But even with the Fed on the sidelines for now, households could see some relief. Already, rates for mortgages, auto loans and credit cards are edging lower. Still, these rates remain relatively elevated compared to recent highs, with credit card APRs down only slightly from an all-time record. 

Here’s a look at where consumer borrowing costs stand.

Mortgages

Although 15- and 30-year mortgage rates are fixed, and largely tied to Treasury yields and the economy, rates have been trending lower for weeks.

Worries about a possible recession and increased uncertainty over President Donald Trump‘s tariff plans have soured consumers’ outlook and dragged down rates, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

“The good news is that even though the Fed has taken its foot off the gas when it comes to rate cuts, mortgage rates have fallen,” said Matt Schulz, chief credit analyst at LendingTree.

The average rate for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage is now 6.77%, down from 7.04% at the beginning of the year, according to Bankrate.

Credit cards

Most credit cards have a variable rate, so there’s a direct connection to the Fed’s benchmark.

But even though the central bank held rates at the last few meetings, the average annual percentage rate has moved lower too — it’s currently, down to 20.09%, from 20.27% at the start of the year, thanks to the lingering effects of last year’s rate cuts

“March was the sixth straight monthly decline, but the decreases have slowed as Fed rate cuts get further back in the rearview mirror,” Schulz said of credit card APRs.

In the meantime, credit card debt continues to be a pain point for consumers struggling to keep up with high prices. Revolving debt, which mostly includes credit card balances, is up 8.2% year over year, while nonrevolving debt, such as auto loans and student loans, is 3% higher, according to the Federal Reserve’s latest consumer credit report.

Auto loans

Although auto loan rates are fixed, those payments continue to grow because car prices are rising, in addition to pressure from trade policy uncertainty.

“That’s troubling news for potential car buyers, who are already beset on all sides by high rates and high prices and also face the possibility of tariffs pushing car costs even higher,” Schulz said.

However, auto loan rates have also backed down from recent highs. The average rate on a five-year new car loan is now 7.42%, down from 7.53% in January, according to Bankrate.

Student loans

Federal student loan rates are fixed, as well, so most borrowers are somewhat shielded from Fed moves and recent economic turmoil.

Undergraduate students who took out direct federal student loans for the 2024-25 academic year are paying 6.53%, up from 5.50% in 2023-24. Interest rates for the upcoming school year will be based in part on the May auction of the 10-year Treasury note.

Private student loans tend to have a variable rate tied to the prime, Treasury bill or another rate index.

Savings

On the upside, top-yielding online savings accounts have offered the best returns in more than a decade and currently pay 4.4%, on average, according to Bankrate.

While the Fed holds rates steady, “savings rates really haven’t changed all that much, that’s the good news,” said Bankrate’s McBride. “Savings rates are still at attractive levels and the top yields are still well in excess of inflation.”

Subscribe to CNBC on YouTube.

Continue Reading
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Personal Finance

Your pre-tax IRA could provide tax planning opportunities

Published

on

Songsak Rohprasit | Moment | Getty Images

When saving for retirement, it’s easy to funnel money into a pre-tax 401(k) plan or individual retirement account without planning for future taxes. Those pre-tax funds, however, can be handy in some cases, experts say.

Often, investors roll pre-tax 401(k) accounts into traditional IRAs, and the withdrawals in retirement trigger regular income taxes, depending on your tax bracket

“Your IRA is an IOU to the IRS,” certified public accountant Ed Slott said during a session last week at the Horizons retirement planning conference in Coronado, California.  

More from Personal Finance:
Here’s how the SALT deduction could change amid Trump’s tax cuts debate
Economist: This step is ‘really important’ if you plan to sell your home in 2025
As Social Security faces an uncertain future, some say it should be privatized

With uncertain future tax rates, Slott pushes for savings in after-tax Roth accounts, which won’t incur taxes in retirement. He also likes to use Roth conversions.

Roth conversions move pretax or nondeductible IRA funds to a Roth IRA, which can kick-start tax-free growth after an upfront tax bill. 

However, there are scenarios where keeping some money in your pre-tax IRA makes sense, Slott said. 

Certified public accountant Jeff Levine agreed. He told CNBC he prefers some “dry powder” — pre-tax money in retirement accounts that can be strategically withdrawn for planning opportunities.

By comparison, “you’ve already paid your tax bill” with after-tax Roth accounts, he said.

Medical deduction for long-term care

One tax planning opportunity is for retirees expecting long-term care expenses, experts say.

A 2022 research brief from the Department of Health and Human Services found 56% of Americans turning 65 that year will develop a condition that requires long-term care services.

Whether it’s in-home health aids or assisted living facilities, long-term care expenses are rising, according to Genworth’s annual survey. 

But the medical expense deduction could help offset those costs, according to Levine. For 2025, you can claim the tax break for expenses that exceed 7.5% of your adjusted gross income for the year.

If you itemize tax breaks, the deduction reduces the amount of your income subject to tax. That means part of the medical expense deduction could be lost if your income is too low.

“You wipe it out,” Levine said.

But that issue could be solved with a large pre-tax IRA withdrawal in the year of high long-term care expenses, which boosts your adjusted gross income for that year, he said.

Tax break for charitable giving

There’s another tax planning opportunity for investors with pre-tax IRAs who want to give to charity, Slott said.

Slott was referring to qualified charitable distributions, or QCDs, which are direct transfers from an individual retirement account to a non-profit organization. You must be age 70½ or older to qualify for a QCD.

While there’s no tax deduction for a QCD, the transfer is excluded from your income, meaning it won’t boost your adjusted gross income.  

If you want to leave assets to charity and adult children after death, pre-tax IRAs are less attractive for your heirs because they must follow the “10-year rule,” and empty accounts within 10 years of the original owner’s death.

Planning for long-term care: Here's what you need to know

Continue Reading

Personal Finance

Military families have special tax breaks — but the rules can be tricky

Published

on

Bethany Petrik | Moment | Getty Images

Keep your state residency

Members of the military often move frequently, but many families save on state taxes via a special federal law, experts say.

Under the Servicemembers Civil Relief Act, state income tax is based on your “state of legal residence” during active duty, regardless of where you’re stationed. If eligible, it’s possible to keep that residency through your military career.

“Military members tend to have residency in states without an income tax,” such as Florida, Texas or Washington, said CFP Curtis Sheldon, who is also an enrolled agent at C.L. Sheldon and Company in Alexandria, Va. The firm specializes in working with active and retired military members. 

Tax-exempt ‘allowances’

Another unique benefit for service members is tax-exempt “allowances,” Sheldon said.

Generally, pay is taxable, whereas most allowances — such as funds for housing and food — are tax-exempt, he explained.

“They don’t get reported anywhere on the tax return,” and these items don’t show up on Form W-2, he said. “It’s something you have to keep track of yourself.”

Combat zone income tax exclusion

Retirement investors are becoming more active amid market turmoil

‘Stop the clock’ on capital gains 

When selling a primary residence, many homeowners can exclude a portion of profits from capital gains taxes. 

Generally, the limit is $250,000 for single filers or $500,000 for married couples filing jointly. But you must meet the “use test” by living in the home for two of the last five years before the sale.

That rule is suspended for members of the armed forces, Sheldon said: “You get to stop the clock.”

That means it’s still possible to qualify for the tax break, even without meeting the two-year use test, if you lived elsewhere while on “qualified official extended duty,” according to the IRS. 

JOIN the CNBC CFP® Circle for Mission: Money Management on April 1. This exclusive virtual roundtable, held in partnership with The Association of Military Spouse Entrepreneurs, will focus on how to best manage money effectively. Get your free ticket today!

Continue Reading

Personal Finance

As Social Security faces an uncertain future, some say it should be privatized

Published

on

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink speaks during the New York Times DealBook Summit Nov. 30, 2022 in New York City. 

Michael M. Santiago | Getty Images News | Getty Images

President Donald Trump‘s efforts to slash federal government spending has ignited a new debate about the future of Social Security.

One idea that has been brought up before — privatizing the now public program — is getting new attention.

At the BlackRock retirement summit in Washington, D.C., on Wednesday, CEO Larry Fink said he supports more individual ownership in Social Security, though he said he would not necessarily use the term privatizing because it has toxic connotations.

“The problem we have now, we have a plan called Social Security that doesn’t grow with the economy,” Fink said.

More from Personal Finance:
Trump says Education Dept. shouldn’t handle student loans
Potential cuts to Medicaid could include work requirements
Rules for repaying Social Security benefits are getting stricter

Social Security is a pay-as-you-go system — today’s payroll tax contributions generally fund benefits for current retirees and other beneficiaries.

Any leftover money that is not used to either pay benefits or fund the program’s administrative costs is put into the program’s trust funds. That money is invested in special Treasury bonds that earn a market rate of interest and which are guaranteed by the U.S. government, according to the Social Security Administration.

Privatizing the program could provide a way to invest money on behalf of individual workers that potentially earns a higher return, according to supporters of the idea.

“If we create a plan that every American can grow with our economy, they’re going to feel more attached to our economy,” Fink said.

‘Real battle’ brewing over Social Security’s future

House Ways and Means lawmakers on Wednesday voted to block a full House vote on a resolution of inquiry that Larson proposed to require disclosure of so-called Department of Government Efficiency activity at the Social Security Administration. At the hearing, Larson said he is concerned the Trump administration could try to privatize the program.

“We, I think, are in real battle here, and it’s really, in many respects, not unlike the battle that Roosevelt faced initially,” Larson told CNBC.com on Tuesday.

Privatizing Social Security has been considered before

The Social Security Act that created the program was signed into law by President Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1935.

The idea of privatizing the program was proposed in 2005 by President George W. Bush.

Had those efforts been successful, Americans would have seen their retirement money increase four-fold, based on the returns of the S&P 500 index over that time, Fink said.

“I think more Americans would be a little more hopeful today with their retirement savings than just getting that bond payment,” Fink said.

Had Bush’s proposals gone through, Americans “probably would have been” better off today, said Andrew Biggs, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute who served as associate director of Bush’s White House National Economic Council in 2005.

But the question now as to whether to invest Americans’ retirement money in government bonds or equities is misguided, Biggs said.

If someone has not saved money for retirement, the dilemma of where to invest is not relevant since they do not have the funds, he said. The same is true of the federal government, which currently does not have a significant surplus for the pay-as-you-go program.

Fiserv CEO on the nomination to Social Security Commisioner role

Moreover, if Social Security transitions to personalized accounts, there would also need to be extra money available to fund the transition costs to keep benefits going to current retirees, he said.

“It’s a question of saving more,” Biggs said.

Generally, Social Security reform discussions focus on making changes to improve the current system — raising taxes, cutting benefits or a combination of both.

Larson has a proposal to improve Social Security’s solvency by raising taxes on the wealthy while implementing benefit increases.

Yet it remains to be seen whether Republicans, who generally oppose tax increases, and Democrats, who do not want benefit cuts, can reach a bipartisan compromise.

Starting reform discussions based on the program’s current structure is limiting, Biggs said.

“We really do have a failure of imagination on Social Security reform,” Biggs said. “I think what Larry Fink is saying is, ‘Let’s think big on it.’ I think he’s absolutely correct on that point.”

Continue Reading

Trending