Finance

Fed officials see interest rate cuts ahead, but only ‘gradually,’ meeting minutes show

Published

3 hours ago

November 26, 2024

Federal Reserve officials expressed confidence that inflation is easing and the labor market is strong, allowing for further interest rate cuts albeit at a gradual pace, according to minutes from the November meeting released Tuesday.

The meeting summary contained multiple statements indicating that officials are comfortable with the pace of inflation, even though by most measures it remains above the Fed’s 2% goal.

With that in mind, and with conviction that the jobs picture is still fairly solid, Federal Open Market Committee members indicated that further rate cuts likely will happen, though they did not specify when and to what degree.

“In discussing the outlook for monetary policy, participants anticipated that if the data came in about
as expected, with inflation continuing to move down sustainably to 2 percent and the economy
remaining near maximum employment, it would likely be appropriate to move gradually toward a more neutral stance of policy over time,” the minutes said.

The FOMC voted unanimously at the meeting to take down its benchmark borrowing rate by a quarter percentage point to a target range of 4.5%-4.75%. Markets expect the Fed could cut again in December, though conviction has waned among concerns that President-elect Donald Trump‘s plans for tariffs could stoke inflation higher.

The meeting concluded two days after the contentious presidential election campaign resulted in the Republican emerging as the victor and set to begin serving his second term in January.
There was no mention of the election in the minutes, save for a staff notation that stock market volatility rose before the Nov. 5 results and fell after. There also was no discussion of the implications of fiscal policy, despite anticipation that Trump’s plans, which also include lower taxes and aggressive deregulation, could have substantial economic impacts.

However, members did note a general level of uncertainty about how conditions are evolving. In addition, they expressed uncertainty over where the rate cuts would need to stop before the Fed hit a “neutral” interest rate that neither boosts nor restrains growth.

“Many participants observed that uncertainties concerning the level of the neutral rate of interest complicated the assessment of the degree of restrictiveness of monetary policy and, in their view, made it appropriate to reduce policy restraint gradually,” the minutes said.

Conflicting signals on inflation and the uncertainty over Trump’s policies have caused traders to scale back their outlook for interest rate cuts ahead. The market-implied probability of a rate trim in December has drifted below 60%, with an expectation of just three-quarters of a percentage point in reductions through the end of the 2025.

Committee members appeared to spend much of the meeting talking about progress on inflation and a generally stable economic outlook.

Policymakers in recent days have expressed confidence that current inflation readings are being boosted by shelter cost increases that are expected to slow as the pace of rent rises eases and makes its way through the data.

“Almost all participants judged that, though month-to-month movements would remain volatile, incoming data generally remained consistent with inflation returning sustainably to 2 percent,” the document said.
“Participants cited various factors likely to put continuing downward pressure on inflation, including waning business pricing power, the Committee’s still-restrictive monetary policy stance, and well-anchored longer-term inflation expectations,” it added.

Policymakers had been expressing concern about the labor market. Nonfarm payrolls rose only 12,000 in October, though the meager gain has been attributed primarily to storms in the Southeast and labor strikes.

Officials indicated that the state of the labor market is generally solid.

“Participants generally noted … that there was no sign of rapid deterioration in labor market conditions, with layoffs remaining low,” the minutes said.

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Databricks closes in on multibillion funding round at $55 billion valuation

Published

4 hours ago

November 26, 2024

Business Finance News

Ali Ghodsi, co-founder and chief executive officer of Databricks Inc., speaks during a Bloomberg Technology television interview in San Francisco on Oct. 22, 2019.

David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty Images

One of the world’s most valuable private tech companies is raising billions more in cash and is in no rush to go public, sources told CNBC.

San Francisco-based Databricks is raising at least another $5 billion in its latest funding round — though it could raise up to $8 billion given the round is ongoing — according to several sources who asked not to be named because the discussions were private. The latest raise would value the company at $55 billion and could top the largest round of the year by OpenAI.

The latest funding is designed to help Databricks employees sell shares, a source said. Reducing pressure from employees to cash out also reduces the need for a liquidity event like an IPO. One source said the funding round makes Databricks’ highly anticipated public debut less urgent. But it could still happen in the back half of next year.

Databricks was founded in 2013 and sells software that helps enterprises organize data, and build their own generative AI products. It uses machine learning to help clients from AT&T to Walgreens parse through and make sense of massive troves of data.

This equity round could be the largest in a banner year for artificial intelligence funding. One in three venture dollars this year has gone to an AI startup, according to CB Insights. OpenAI holds the record in 2024, raising $6.6 billion in October at a $157 valuation.

Databricks last raised $500 million at a $43 billion valuation. It’s backed by Nvidia, Capital One, Andreessen Horowitz, Baillie Gifford, Fidelity, Insight Partners, Tiger Global and others.

The Information first reported that Databricks was raising money.

The firm has capitalized on the momentum in artificial intelligence. This summer, it acquired MosaicML, a $1.3 billion software startup that focuses on large language models that can churn out natural-sounding text. Databricks told investors earlier this year that annualized revenue would hit $2.4 billion by the midpoint of 2024.

Its decision to stay private comes as software stocks have struggled to get out of a rut brought on by higher interest rates. Shares of rival Snowflake are down 13% this year. While its fellow software IPO candidates like Stripe have taken significant haircuts on valuations, Databricks has grown its value while expanding its employee base.

CEO Ali Ghodsi said at a conference last week that he’s optimizing for the success of Databricks over the next decade or two, not optimizing for an IPO.

“If we were going to go the earliest would be, let’s say, mid-next year, or something like that,” Ghodsi said at Newcomer’s Cerebral Valley AI Conference. “So, you know, could happen next year.”

A Databricks spokesperson declined to comment.