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Fed wants more confidence that inflation is moving toward 2% target, meeting minutes indicate

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Fed wants more confidence that inflation is moving toward 2% target, meeting minutes indicate

Federal Reserve officials at their March meeting expressed concern that inflation wasn’t moving lower quickly enough, though they still expected to cut interest rates at some point this year.

At a meeting in which the Federal Open Market Committee again voted to hold short-term borrowing rates steady, policymakers also showed misgivings that inflation, while easing, wasn’t doing so in a convincing enough fashion. The Fed currently targets its benchmark rate between 5.25%-5.5%

As such, FOMC members voted to keep language in the post-meeting statement that they wouldn’t be cutting rates until they “gained greater confidence” that inflation was on a steady path back to the central bank’s 2% annual target.

“Participants generally noted their uncertainty about the persistence of high inflation and expressed the view that recent data had not increased their confidence that inflation was moving sustainably down to 2 percent,” the minutes said.

In what apparently was a lengthy discussion about inflation at the meeting, officials said geopolitical turmoil and rising energy prices remain risks that could push inflation higher. They also cited the potential that looser policy could add to price pressures.

On the downside, they cited a more balanced labor market, enhanced technology along with economic weakness in China and a deteriorating commercial real estate market.

U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell holds a press conference following a two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on interest rate policy in Washington, U.S., March 20, 2024.

Elizabeth Frantz | Reuters

They also discussed higher-than-expected inflation readings in January and February. Chair Jerome Powell said it’s possible the two months’ readings were caused by seasonal issues, though he added it’s hard to tell at this point. There were members at the meeting who disagreed.

“Some participants noted that the recent increases in inflation had been relatively broad based and therefore should not be discounted as merely statistical aberrations,” the minutes stated.

That part of the discussion was partly relevant considering the release came the same day that the Fed received more bad news on inflation.

CPI validates their concern

The consumer price index, a popular inflation gauge though not the one the Fed most closely focuses on, showed a 12-month rate of 3.5% in March. That was both above market expectations and represented an increase of 0.3 percentage point from February, giving rise to the idea that hot readings to start the year may not have been an aberration.

Following the CPI release, traders in the fed funds futures market recalibrated their expectations. Market pricing now implies the first rate cut to come in September, for a total of just two this year. Previous to the release, the odds were in favor of the first reduction coming in June, with three total, in line with the “dot plot” projections released after the March meeting.

The discussion at the meeting indicated that “almost all participants judged that it would be appropriate to move policy to a less restrictive stance at some point this year if the economy evolved broadly as they expected,” the minutes said. “In support of this view, they noted that the disinflation process was continuing along a path that was generally expected to be somewhat uneven.”

In other action at the meeting, officials discussed the possibility of ending the balance sheet reduction. The Fed has shaved about $1.5 trillion off its holdings of Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities by allowing up to $95 billion in proceeds from maturing bonds to roll off each month rather than reinvesting them.

There were no decisions made or indications about how the easing of what has become known as “quantitative tightening” will happen, though the minutes said the roll-off would be cut by “roughly half” from its current pace and the process should start “fairly soon.” Most market economists expect the process to begin in the next month or two.

The minutes noted that members believe a “cautious” approach should be taken.

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Walmart can absorb tariffs, fmr. U.S. CEO Simon questions price hikes

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Walmart is best poised to weather the tariffs, says former Walmart U.S. CEO Bill Simon

Walmart‘s business is strong enough to withstand tariff headwinds without increasing its prices, according to the discount retailer’s former U.S. CEO.

Bill Simon, who ran Walmart U.S. from 2010 to 2014, suggests the company may be overstating challenges tied to tariffs.

“If you look down deep and dig into the details of their earnings release today, you know this quarter they grew their gross profit margin in the U.S. business 25 basis points. So, they’re expanding their margin. They also reported their general merchandise categories were flattish because they had mid-single digit price deflation,” he told CNBC’s “Fast Money” on Thursday, the day Walmart reported fiscal first-quarter results. “That sort of gives them room in my view to manage any tariff impact that they would have.”

Simon is optimistic consumers can largely handle price increases — citing a steady jobs market and cheaper fuel prices this year. But he notes worrisome commentary from corporate executives could be chipping away at consumer confidence.

“All the doom and gloom we hear about price increases and tariffs like we heard from my friends at Walmart today, I think it scares them some,” said Simon, who’s now on the Darden Restaurants board and is the chairman at Hanesbrands.

Walmart shares fell 0.5% on Thursday, but the stock closed above session lows. Shares are off almost 9% from the all-time high of $105.30 hit on Feb. 14.

On Feb. 20, Simon joined “Fast Money” as Walmart shares were wrapping up their worst week since May 2022 on tariff jitters. He suggested the stock was a steal for investors even though Walmart warned profits were slowing.

As of Thursday’s close, Walmart shares are positive for the year, up more than 6% in 2025. The stock has climbed more than 7% since President Donald Trump’s tariff announcement on April 2.

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Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: AMAT, TTWO, CAVA

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The Applied Materials logo on Dec. 17, 2024.

Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images

Check out the companies making headlines in after-hours trading:

Applied Materials — Shares fell nearly 5% in extended trading. The maker of semiconductor manufacturing equipment reported $7.10 billion in revenue in its fiscal second quarter, which was slightly lower than analysts’ expectations of $7.13 billion, according to LSEG. Semiconductor revenue of $5.26 billion for the quarter fell short of estimates of $5.31 billion.

Take-Two Interactive Software — The video game company saw a 2% decline in shares after issuing weaker-than-expected guidance for full-year bookings. The company said it expects between $5.9 billion and $6 billion, while StreetAccount consensus estimates sought $7.82 billion. For the fiscal first quarter, Take-Two projected bookings between $1.25 billion and $1.30 billion, versus estimates of $1.28 billion.

Cava Group — Shares of the Mediterranean restaurant chain fell 4%. Cava’s full-year guidance for adjusted  earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, or EBITDA, came in at $152 million to $159 million, short of the FactSet consensus call for $159.7 million. Revenue in the first quarter surpassed estimates, coming in at $332 million, versus the $327 million consensus estimate, per LSEG.

Doximity — The networking platform for health-care professionals saw its stock tank 25% on weak guidance. Doximity expects adjusted EBITDA to range between $71 million and $72 million, while StreetAccount consensus estimates sought $74 million. The company’s full-year outlook also missed expectations.

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COIN, UNH, DKS, BOOT and more

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