The U.S. Federal Reserve’s easing cycle will be “mild” by historical standards when it starts cutting rates at its September policy meeting, ratings agency Fitch said in a note.
In its global economic outlook report for September, Fitch forecast 25-basis-point cut each at the central bank’s September and December meeting, before it slashes rates by 125 basis points in 2025 and 75 basis points in 2026.
This will add up to a total 250 basis points of cuts in 10 moves across 25 months, Fitch noted, adding that the median cut from peak rates to bottom in previous Fed easing cycles going up to the mid-1950s was 470 basis points, with a median duration of 8 months.
“One reason we expect Fed easing to proceed at a relatively gentle pace is that there is still work to do on inflation,” the report said.
This is because CPI inflation is still above the Fed’s stated inflation target of 2%.
Fitch also pointed out that the recent decline in the core inflation — which excludes prices of food and energy — rate mostly reflected the drop in automobile prices, which may not last.
U.S. inflation in August declined to its lowest level since February 2021, according to a Labor Department report Wednesday.
The consumer price index rose 2.5% year on year in August, coming in lower than the 2.6% expected by Dow Jones and hitting its lowest rate of increase in 3½ years. On a month-on-month basis, inflation rose 0.2% from July.
Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.3% for the month, slightly higher than the 0.2% estimate. The 12-month core inflation rate held at 3.2%, in line with the forecast.
Fitch also noted that “The inflation challenges faced by the Fed over the past three and a half years are also likely to engender caution among FOMC members. It took far longer than anticipated to tame inflation and gaps have been revealed in central banks’ understanding of what drives inflation.”
Dovish China, hawkish Japan
In Asia, Fitch expects that rate cuts will continue in China, pointing out that the People’s Bank of China’s rate cut in July took market participants by surprise. The PBOC cut the 1-year MLF rate to 2.3% from 2.5% in July.
“[Expected] Fed rate cuts and the recent weakening of the US dollar has opened up some room for the PBOC to cut rates further,” the report said, adding that that deflationary pressures were becoming entrenched in China.
Fitch pointed out that “Producer prices, export prices and house prices are all falling and bond yields have been declining. Core CPI inflation has fallen to just 0.3% and we have lowered our CPI forecasts.”
It now expects China’s inflation rate to bet at 0.5% in 2024, down from 0.8% in its June outlook report.
The ratings agency forecast an additional 10 basis points of cuts in 2024, and another 20 basis points of cuts in 2025 for China.
On the other hand, Fitch noted that “The [Bank of Japan] is bucking the global trend of policy easing and hiked rates more aggressively than we had anticipated in July. This reflects its growing conviction that reflation is now firmly entrenched.”
With core inflation above the BOJ’s target for 23 straight months and companies prepared to grant “ongoing” and “sizable” wages, Fitch said that the situation was quite different from the “lost decade” in the 1990s when wages failed to grow amid persistent deflation.
This plays into the BOJ’s goal of a “virtuous wage-price cycle” — which boosts the BOJ’s confidence that it can continue to raise rates towards neutral settings.
Fitch expects the BOJ’s benchmark policy rate to reach 0.5% by the end of 2024 and 0.75% in 2025, adding “we expect the policy rate to reach 1% by end-2026, above consensus. A more hawkish BOJ could continue to have global ramifications.”
People shop for produce at a Walmart in Rosemead, California, on April 11, 2025.
Frederic J. Brown | Afp | Getty Images
A growing number of Americans are using buy now, pay later loans to buy groceries, and more people are paying those bills late, according to new Lending Tree data released Friday.
The figures are the latest indicator that some consumers are cracking under the pressure of an uncertain economy and are having trouble affording essentials such as groceries as they contend with persistent inflation, high interest rates and concerns around tariffs.
In a survey conducted April 2-3 of 2,000 U.S. consumers ages 18 to 79, around half reported having used buy now, pay later services. Of those consumers, 25% of respondents said they were using BNPL loans to buy groceries, up from 14% in 2024 and 21% in 2023, the firm said.
Meanwhile, 41% of respondents said they made a late payment on a BNPL loan in the past year, up from 34% in the year prior, the survey found.
Lending Tree’s chief consumer finance analyst, Matt Schulz, said that of those respondents who said they paid a BNPL bill late, most said it was by no more than a week or so.
“A lot of people are struggling and looking for ways to extend their budget,” Schulz said. “Inflation is still a problem. Interest rates are still really high. There’s a lot of uncertainty around tariffs and other economic issues, and it’s all going to add up to a lot of people looking for ways to extend their budget however they can.”
“For an awful lot of people, that’s going to mean leaning on buy now, pay later loans, for better or for worse,” he said.
He stopped short of calling the results a recession indicator but said conditions are expected to decline further before they get better.
“I do think it’s going to get worse, at least in the short term,” said Schulz. “I don’t know that there’s a whole lot of reason to expect these numbers to get better in the near term.”
The loans, which allow consumers to split up purchases into several smaller payments, are a popular alternative to credit cards because they often don’t charge interest. But consumers can see high fees if they pay late, and they can run into problems if they stack up multiple loans. In Lending Tree’s survey, 60% of BNPL users said they’ve had multiple loans at once, with nearly a fourth saying they have held three or more at once.
“It’s just really important for people to be cautious when they use these things, because even though they can be a really good interest-free tool to help you kind of make it from one paycheck to the next, there’s also a lot of risk in mismanaging it,” said Schulz. “So people should tread lightly.”
Lending Tree’s findings come after Billboard revealed that about 60% of general admission Coachella attendees funded their concert tickets with buy now, pay later loans, sparking a debate on the state of the economy and how consumers are using debt to keep up their lifestyles. A recent announcement from DoorDash that it would begin accepting BNPL financing from Klarna for food deliveries led to widespread mockery and jokes that Americans were struggling so much that they were now being forced to finance cheeseburgers and burritos.
Over the last few years, consumers have held up relatively well, even in the face of persistent inflation and high interest rates, because the job market was strong and wage growth had kept up with inflation — at least for some workers.
Earlier this year, however, large companies including Walmart and Delta Airlines began warning that the dynamic had begun to shift and they were seeing cracks in demand, which was leading to worse-than-expected sales forecasts.
Check out the companies making headlines in midday trading: T-Mobile — Shares pulled back 11% after the company’s wireless subscribers for the first quarter missed Wall Street estimates. T-Mobile reported 495,000 postpaid phone additions in the first-quarter, while analysts polled by StreetAccount were looking for 504,000. Alphabet — The Google parent company gained about 2% on the heels of better-than-expected first-quarter results . Alphabet reported $2.81 per share on revenue of $90.23 billion, while analysts polled by LSEG forecast $2.01 in earnings per share and $89.12 billion in revenue. Skechers — Shares fell 4.8% after the footwear maker posted weaker-than-expected revenue for the first quarter and withdrew its 2025 guidance due to ” macroeconomic uncertainty stemming from global trade policies .” The company’s earnings for the quarter came in above analysts’ estimates, however. Gilead Sciences — The biopharmaceutical stock fell 2.5% after first-quarter revenue came in at $6.67 billion, missing the consensus forecast of $6.81 billion from analysts polled by LSEG. However, the company earned $1.81 per share, excluding items, in the quarter, beating Wall Street’s estimate of $1.79 a share. Saia — Shares of the shipping company fell 31% after first-quarter results missed estimates and showed a slowdown in March. Saia reported $1.86 in earnings per share on $787.6 million in revenue. Analysts surveyed by FactSet were expecting $2.76 in earnings per share on $812.8 million in revenue. BMO Capital Markets downgraded the stock to market perform from outperform and said the issues were “company specific.” Intel — The chipmaker declined 7% after Intel’s current quarter missed investors’ expectations. Intel forecast revenue in the June quarter of $11.8 billion at the midpoint, while consensus forecasts called for $12.82 billion, per LSEG. Management anticipates earnings will break even. Intel also announced plans to reduce both its operational and capital expenses. Boston Beer — Shares of the Samuel Adams brewer were more than 1% higher after better-than-expected first-quarter results. Boston Beer notched earnings per share of $2.16 on revenue of $453.9 million, while analysts polled by FactSet were looking for 56 cents per share on revenue of $435.6 million. Boston Beer cautioned that tariffs could hurt full-year earnings. Tesla — The Elon Musk-helmed electric vehicle company surged 10%. Shares have advanced more than 17% this week as the broader market tries to recover from a steep sell-off for much of April. — CNBC’s Jesse Pound, Alex Harring and Sean Conlon contributed reporting. Get Your Ticket to Pro LIVE Join us at the New York Stock Exchange! Uncertain markets? Gain an edge with CNBC Pro LIVE , an exclusive, inaugural event at the historic New York Stock Exchange. In today’s dynamic financial landscape, access to expert insights is paramount. As a CNBC Pro subscriber, we invite you to join us for our first exclusive, in-person CNBC Pro LIVE event at the iconic NYSE on Thursday, June 12. Join interactive Pro clinics led by our Pros Carter Worth, Dan Niles and Dan Ives, with a special edition of Pro Talks with Tom Lee. You’ll also get the opportunity to network with CNBC experts, talent and other Pro subscribers during an exciting cocktail hour on the legendary trading floor. Tickets are limited!
Check out the companies making headlines before the bell: Meta Platforms — The Facebook and Instagram parent jumped about 3%. Meta cut staff in its Reality Labs division, CNBC reported. Alphabet — The Google and YouTube owner climbed more than 4% after first-quarter results topped Wall Street expectations. Alphabet earned $2.81 per share on $90.23 billion in revenue for the quarter, while analysts surveyed by LSEG had estimated $2.01 per share and $89.12 billion in revenue. T-Mobile — Shares of the telecommunications company fell 5.5% after it reported fewer first-quarter wireless phone subscribers than the Street expected, seeing 495,000 postpaid phone additions versus analysts’ call for 504,000, according to StreetAccount. Earnings and revenue for the first quarter topped Street estimates. Intel — The chipmaker fell 7.2% after the outlook for the current quarter disappointed investors. Intel guided for revenue in the June quarter to come in at $11.8 billion at the midpoint, less than consensus calls for $12.82 billion, according to LSEG. Management anticipates earnings will break even. Intel also announced plans to reduce its operational and capital expenses. Gilead Sciences — The biopharmaceutical stock slid 3.9% after posting first-quarter revenue of $6.67 billion, missing the consensus estimate of $6.81 billion from analysts polled by LSEG. Gilead earned $1.81 per share, excluding items, in the quarter, while Wall Street penciled in $1.79. Skechers — The footwear maker slumped 6% after reporting lower-than-expected first-quarter revenue and withdrew its 2025 forward financial forecasts on account of ” macroeconomic uncertainty stemming from global trade policies .” Skechers’ bottom-line results came in above analysts’ forecasts. Charles Schwab — The financial services provider advanced 1.4% after Goldman Sachs upgraded shares to buy from neutral, calling Schwab a resilient growth stock amid an uncertain backdrop. Hasbro — The toy company rose about 1% one day after soaring 15%. Citigroup raised its investment opinion to buy from neutral, saying Hasbro’s stronger-than-expected Wizards of the Coast business outweighs any uncertainty stemming from tariff policy, according to analyst James Hardiman. Boston Beer — Shares of the Samuel Adams brewer rose nearly 3% after first-quarter results beat expectations. Boston Beer generated $2.16 in earnings per share on $453.9 million of revenue, while analysts surveyed by FactSet looked for 56 cents per share on $435.6 million in revenue. Boston Beer warned in its outlook that tariffs could hurt full-year earnings. — CNBC’s Alex Harring and Jesse Pound contributed reporting. Get Your Ticket to Pro LIVE Join us at the New York Stock Exchange! Uncertain markets? Gain an edge with CNBC Pro LIVE , an exclusive, inaugural event at the historic New York Stock Exchange. In today’s dynamic financial landscape, access to expert insights is paramount. As a CNBC Pro subscriber, we invite you to join us for our first exclusive, in-person CNBC Pro LIVE event at the iconic NYSE on Thursday, June 12. Join interactive Pro clinics led by our Pros Carter Worth, Dan Niles and Dan Ives, with a special edition of Pro Talks with Tom Lee. You’ll also get the opportunity to network with CNBC experts, talent and other Pro subscribers during an exciting cocktail hour on the legendary trading floor. Tickets are limited!