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Federal job cuts disrupt retirement picture for workers, including Black Americans

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A person displays a sign as labor union activists rally in support of federal workers during a protest, with the U.S. Capitol in the background on Capitol Hill in Washington, U.S., Feb. 11, 2025. 

Craig Hudson | Reuters

The sudden cuts to the federal workforce under President Donald Trump will likely throw a curveball into the retirement plans of many Americans, including those from typically disadvantaged backgrounds like Black Americans.

The federal government is often seen as a stable employer with generous benefits, including a defined benefit retirement package that has become rare in corporate America.

But the recent cuts, such as the widespread culling of employees with probationary status, have made some job-seekers rethink their career paths, said Janine Wiggins, owner of Resumes by Neen, an Alabama-based job search coaching business focused on federal workers.

“They’re growing distrust toward federal jobs, just because of the mass layoffs and all of the different executive orders that have been going out. There’s a lot of volatility now. … Before, I would get a lot of clients that want to work for the government because they see it as somewhere where they can stay long-term and retire,” Wiggins said.

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The full impact of the jobs cuts is to be determined. However, there’s a chance that they could impact certain minority groups at a relatively high rate, given the demographics of the federal workforce.

According to a study by the U.S. Government Accountability Office, Black American workers made up just under 20% of the federal workforce in 2021. Recent data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics puts the Black American share of the civilian workforce at roughly 13%. Other groups with relatively higher representation in the federal workforce include Native Americans and people with disabilities.

One of those current employees is Katrina Ayers, a 36-year old African American mother of three in Mobile, Alabama, who works as a technician for the National Guard.

“What attracted me to was of course job security and the health insurance. That was the biggest thing. It was something that was stable,” Ayers said. She has been a federal employee for nine years.

Ayers said that she has private retirement savings, including a Roth IRA, in addition to her federal benefits. Still, she says she knows some federal workers rely solely on the government plans.

Federal retirement benefits

The retirement package for most federal workers consists of three main programs: Social Security, a 401(k)-like Thrift Savings Plan, and an annuity program called the Basic Benefit Plan. The minimum retirement age for the annuity plan is 57 years old for workers born in 1970 or later. There are options of deferred or early retirements for workers who meet certain thresholds.

That basic annuity is calculated using years of service and the highest average pay during three consecutive years of service, so even employees who are eligible for the program could end up with a lower-than-expected benefit if they are pushed out. Employees who are separated from their federal jobs before they are eligible for retirement can receive a lump sum of their retirement contributions.

The 401(k)-style Thrift Savings Plan is better than the average 401(k) plan found in the private sector, said J. Mark Iwry, who is currently a nonresident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and a visiting scholar at the Wharton School. He previously served as senior advisor to the secretary of the Treasury from 2009 to 2017.

The growth of black investors

The defined benefit pension plan for many federal workers provides a somewhat lower level of benefits than some of the comparable private sector plans that are still in operation, Iwry said. However, the federal plan does have the rare perk of being largely adjusted for inflation.

Of course, the impact on retirement savings can also depend on how long it takes for workers to find a new job, and if they need to liquidate some of their assets in the meantime.

“You may end up having a need to tap your retirement savings that you wouldn’t if you didn’t have to change jobs,” said Craig Copeland, director of wealth benefits research with the Employee Benefit Research Institute.

Some workers in lower-income communities or with lower family wealth may also have more people to support, putting additional strain on their finances. This could be a reason that, at higher levels of income, there’s some evidence that Black workers save less than their white counterparts, Copeland said.

“The wealthier individuals that are Black or Hispanic felt that they had more of a responsibility to care for other loved ones than save for their retirement. So that limited somewhat of how much they saved,” Copeland said.

In general, the wealth gap between Black and white savers has been widening due to an array of factors, including Black households having less exposure to the stock market, existing barriers to Black homeownership and the undervaluation of homes in communities of color. This disparity in wealth also continues to grow as people age.

What’s next

The exact extent of the job cuts among federal workers is unclear. Several legal challenges have already been filed against Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency, which has been pushing for some of the job cuts. Tech executive Musk took a similar cost-cutting approach when he bought the company formerly known as Twitter.

The government has also done some backtracking, such as the U.S. Food and Drug Administration re-hiring some of medical device division staff, suggesting that some of the eliminated roles may need to be filled again in the near future.

“People make the country run. So you need people in place, and to lay off all these federal workers, I’m just not understanding the rhyme and reason why, because I just feel like it’s going to be a domino effect,” Ayers said.

For her part, Ayers said that she has a backup plan if she needs to transition full-time into the private sector but isn’t ready to give up on her career with the federal government just yet.

“I’m going to still apply for jobs because I still believe in career progression, and I would like to stay on in the federal sector since I’ve invested so many years,” Ayers said.

Economics

Job openings showed surprising increase to 7.4 million in April

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JOLTS beats estimates, posts best number since February

Employers increased job openings more than expected in April while hiring and layoffs also both rose, according to a report Tuesday that showed a relatively steady labor market.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey showed available jobs totaled nearly 7.4 million, an increase of 191,000 from March and higher than the 7.1 million consensus forecast by economists surveyed by FactSet. On an annual basis, the level was off 228,000, or about 3%.

The ratio of available jobs to unemployed workers was down close to 1.03 to 1 for the month, close to the March level.

Hiring also increased for the month, rising by 169,000 to 5.6 million, while layoffs fell by 196,000 to 1.79 million.

Quits, an indicator of worker confidence in their ability to find another job, edged lower, falling by 150,000 to 3.2 million.

“The labor market is returning to more normal levels despite the uncertainty within the macro outlook,” wrote Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Research. “Underlying patterns in hirings and firings suggest the labor market is holding steady.”

In other economic news Tuesday, the Commerce Department reported that new orders for manufactured goods fell more than expected in April. Orders fell 3.7% on the month, more than the 3.3% Dow Jones forecast and indicative of declining demand after swelling 3.4% in March as businesses sought to get ahead of President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

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Economics

Euro zone inflation, May 2025

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Shoppers buy fresh vegetables, fruit, and herbs at an outdoor produce market under green-striped canopies in Regensburg, Upper Palatinate, Bavaria, Germany, on April 19, 2025.

Michael Nguyen/NurPhoto via Getty Images

Euro zone inflation fell below the European Central Bank’s 2% target in May, hitting a cooler-than-expected 1.9% as the services print eased sharply, flash data from statistics agency Eurostat showed Tuesday.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected the May reading to come in at 2%, compared to the previous month’s 2.2% figure.

The closely watched services inflation print cooled sharply, amounting to 3.2% last month, compared to the previous 4% reading. So-called core inflation, which excludes energy, food, tobacco and alcohol prices, also eased, falling from 2.7% in April to 2.3% in May.

“May’s steep decline in services inflation, to its lowest level in more than three years, confirms that the previous month’s jump was just an Easter-related blip and that the downward trend in services inflation remains on track,” Jack Allen-Reynolds, deputy chief euro zone economist at Capital Economics said in a note.

Inflation has been moving back towards the 2% mark throughout 2025 amid uncertainty for the euro zone economy.

The latest figures will be considered by the European Central Bank as it prepares to make its next interest rate decision later this week. Markets were last pricing in an around 95% chance of interest rates being cut by a further 25-basis-points on Thursday.

Back in April, the central bank took its key rate, the deposit facility rate, to 2.25% — nearly half of the high of 4% notched in the middle of 2023.

But the global economic outlook remains muddied. U.S. President Donald Trump’s protectionist tariff plans have been casting shadows over the global economic outlook, with his so-called “reciprocal” duties — which are also set to affect the European Union — widely seen as harmful to economic growth. Their immediate potential impact on inflation is less clear, with central bank policymakers and analysts noting that it could depend on any potential countermeasures.

Despite the transatlantic tumult, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development in its latest Economic Outlook report out on Tuesday said it was expecting the euro area to expand by 1% in 2025, unchanged from its previous forecast. Euro area inflation is meanwhile projected to come in at 2.2% this year, also in line with the March report.

Euro country bond yields were last lower after the fresh inflation data, with the German 10-year bond yield falling by over two basis points to 2.499%, while the yield on the French 10-year bond was last down by more than one basis point to 3.169%.

The euro was meanwhile last around 0.3% lower against the dollar.

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Economics

U.S. growth forecast cut further by OECD as Trump tariffs sour outlook

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Old Navy and Gap retail stores are seen as people walk through Times Square in New York City on April 9, 2025.

Angela Weiss | Afp | Getty Images

Economic growth forecasts for the U.S. and globally were cut further by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development as President Donald Trump’s tariff turmoil weighs on expectations.

The U.S. growth outlook was downwardly revised to just 1.6% this year and 1.5% in 2026. In March, the OECD was still expecting a 2.2% expansion in 2025.

The fallout from Trump’s tariff policy, elevated economic policy uncertainty, a slowdown of net immigration and a smaller federal workforce were cited as reasons for the latest downgrade.

Global growth, meanwhile, is also expected to be lower than previously forecast, with the OECD saying that “the slowdown is concentrated in the United States, Canada and Mexico,” while other economies are projected to see smaller downward revisions.

“Global GDP growth is projected to slow from 3.3% in 2024 to 2.9% this year and in 2026 … on the technical assumption that tariff rates as of mid-May are sustained despite ongoing legal challenges,” the OECD said.

It had previously forecast global growth of 3.1% this year and 3% in 2026.

“The global outlook is becoming increasingly challenging,” the report said. “Substantial increases in barriers to trade, tighter financial conditions, weaker business and consumer confidence and heightened policy uncertainty will all have marked adverse effects on growth prospects if they persist.”

Frequent changes regarding tariffs have continued in recent weeks, leading to uncertainty in global markets and economies. Some of the most recent developments include Trump’s reciprocal, country-specific levies being struck down by the U.S. Court of International Trade, before then being reinstated by an appeals court, as well as Trump saying he would double steel duties to 50%.

The OECD adjusted its inflation forecast, saying “higher trade costs, especially in countries raising tariffs, will also push up inflation, although their impact will be offset partially by weaker commodity prices.”

The impact of tariffs on inflation has been hotly debated, with many central bank policymakers and global analysts suggesting it remains unclear how the levies will impact prices, and that much depends on factors like potential countermeasures.

The OECD’s inflation outlook shows a notable difference between the U.S. and some of the world’s other major economies. For instance, while G20 countries are now expected to record 3.6% inflation in 2025 — down from 3.8% in March’s estimate — the projection for the U.S. has risen to 3.2%, up from a previous 2.8%.

U.S. inflation could even be closing in on 4% toward the end of 2025, the OECD said.

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