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Federal spending projected to decline by $230 per child in 2024: report

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Federal spending on children climbed to a peak of $11,690 per child in 2021 in response to the Covid-19 pandemic.

Since then, there has been a “steep decline” in those expenditures, which fell to $10,190 per child in 2022 and then to $8,990 per child in 2023, adjusted for inflation, according to new research from the Urban Institute, a Washington, D.C., think tank focused on economic and social policy research.

In 2024, that spending is expected to level off to $8,760 per child — a decline of about $230 per child from the previous year, the research found.

Covid relief — through federal legislation as well as state-level initiatives — helped provide “unprecedented” new funding in 2020 and 2021 that significantly improved conditions for children and their families, according to the report. Those efforts included tax provisions, social services, training and housing programs.

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Those pandemic-era changes — which were largely temporary — had a “big and immediate” effect on poverty, according to Heather Hahn, associate vice president at the Urban Institute and a co-author of the report.

“For children, we saw poverty just plummet because they had more money,” Hahn said.

In 2021, child poverty fell to 5.2%, down from 12.6% in 2019. The expiration of the aid drove child poverty back up to 12.4% in 2022.

Tax expenditures represent the largest drop in federal spending on children between 2022 and 2023, while there were also sharp declines in spending on nutrition and more modest changes in education funding, according to the Urban Institute.

Covid federal tax expansions were largest in 2021

Pandemic-era tax expansions were the largest in 2021 and included direct payments to families.

Three rounds of stimulus check payments deployed by the federal government between March 2020 and March 2021 included larger maximum payments for families with children.

The first stimulus payments provided an additional $500 per dependent under age 17. The second round of payments provided $600 per dependent under 17. And the third, most generous payments provided $1,400 per dependent, this time including those ages 17 and 18. To qualify, certain income thresholds and other restrictions applied.

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Federal lawmakers also temporarily put in place a more generous child tax credit for 2021 with maximums of $3,000 per child and $3,600 per child under age six — up from $2,000 per child.

The child tax credit was also made non-refundable, allowing families with little to no income to still access the full sums. As with the stimulus checks, families needed to meet income and other requirements to qualify.

By 2023, the stimulus check money had largely been paid out and the child tax credit expenditures had fallen back below pre-pandemic levels, according to the Urban Institute.

Child tax credit ‘a central part of the discussion’

Families may receive even less money when the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act expires in 2025, barring action by Congress before then. At that point, the current child tax credit of up to $2,000 per child under age 17 is poised to fall to $1,000 per child under age 17.

Lawmakers may again consider making the child tax credit more generous.

“The long-term future of the child tax credit and this broader support for families and children is going to be a pretty central part of the discussion next year,” Garrett Watson, senior policy analyst at the Tax Foundation said of the upcoming federal tax policy deadline Congress faces.

Along with the expanded child tax credit, lawmakers are also poised to look at other changes to the tax code that are set to expire, particularly the expanded standard deduction and repeal of the personal exemption. Taken together, those three changes net out to be revenue neutral, and therefore are interrelated, Watson said.

“Generally speaking, there is a bipartisan interest in at least maintaining current policy, meaning the child tax credit that was established and expanded in 2017,” Watson said.

However, there is no consensus on what changes should be included to that credit in the future, he said.

As part of her presidential campaign, Vice President Kamala Harris has suggested restoring the expanded child tax credit of up to $3,600 and providing $6,000 for families with newborn children. Meanwhile, Republican vice-presidential candidate JD Vance has said he wants to raise the child tax credit to $5,000.

Generally, federal spending on children will have to compete with other priorities.

The Urban Institute projects that by 2034 all categories of federal expenditures on children as a share of gross domestic product will decline below current levels. That’s as other areas, like interest payments on the national debt and outlays to Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, are expected to take up a larger share of federal spending by that year.

Traditionally, states and localities have provided the most spending for children, primarily through education, Hahn said. The federal government temporarily had a larger role in spending on children during the pandemic, she said.

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There’s a key change coming to 401(k) catch-up contributions in 2025

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Many Americans face a retirement savings shortfall. However, setting aside more money could get easier for some older workers in 2025.

Enacted by Congress in 2022, the Secure Act 2.0 ushered in several retirement system improvements, including updates to 401(k) plans, required withdrawals, 529 college savings plans and more.

While some Secure 2.0 changes have already happened, another key change for “max savers,” will begin in 2025, according to Dave Stinnett, Vanguard’s head of strategic retirement consulting.

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Some 4 in 10 American workers are behind in retirement planning and savings, according to a CNBC survey, which polled roughly 6,700 adults in early August.

But changes to 401(k) catch-up contributions — a higher limit for workers age 50 and older — could soon help certain savers, experts say. Here’s what to know.

Higher 401(k) catch-up contributions

Employees can now defer up to $23,000 into 401(k) plans for 2024, with an extra $7,500 for workers age 50 and older.

But starting in 2025, workers aged 60 to 63 can boost annual 401(k) catch-up contributions to $10,000 — or 150% of the catch-up limit — whichever is greater. The IRS hasn’t yet unveiled the catch-up contribution limit for 2025.  

“This can be a great way for people to boost their retirement savings,” said certified financial planner Jamie Bosse, senior advisor at CGN Advisors in Manhattan, Kansas.

An estimated 15% of eligible workers made catch-up contributions in 2023, according to Vanguard’s 2024 How America Saves report.

Those making catch-up contributions tend to be higher earners, Vanguard’s Stinnett explained. But they could still have “real concerns about being able to retire comfortably.”

More than half of 401(k) participants with income above $150,000 and nearly 40% with an account balance of more than $250,000 made catch-up contributions in 2023, the Vanguard report found.

Roth catch-up contributions

Another Secure 2.0 change will remove the upfront tax break on catch-up contributions for higher earners by only allowing the deposits in after-tax Roth accounts.

The change applies to catch-up deposits to 401(k), 403(b) or 457(b) plans who earned more than $145,000 from a single company the prior year. The amount will adjust for inflation annually. 

However, IRS in August 2023 delayed the implementation of that rule to January 2026. That means workers can still make pretax 401(k) catch-up contributions through 2025, regardless of income.

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Holiday shoppers plan to spend more, while taking on debt this season

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Increase in consumer holiday spending expected this year, says Mastercard's Michelle Meyer

Americans often splurge on gifts during the holidays.

This year, holiday spending from Nov. 1 through Dec. 31 is expected to increase to a record total of $979.5 billion to $989 billion, according to the National Retail Federation.

Even as credit card debt tops $1.14 trillion, holiday shoppers expect to spend, on average, $1,778, up 8% compared to last year, Deloitte’s holiday retail survey found.

Meanwhile, 28% of holiday shoppers still haven’t paid off the gifts they purchased for their loved ones last year, according to another holiday spending report by NerdWallet

How shoppers pay for holiday gifts

Heading into the peak holiday shopping season, 74% of shoppers plan to use credit cards to make their purchases, NerdWallet found.

Another 28% will tap savings to buy holiday gifts and 16% will lean on buy now, pay later services. NerdWallet polled more than 1,700 adults in September.  

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Buy now, pay later is now one of the fastest-growing categories in consumer finance and is only expected to become more popular in the months ahead, according to the most recent data from Adobe. Adobe forecasts BNPL spending will peak on Cyber Monday with a new single-day-record of $993 million.

However, buy now, pay later loans can be especially hard to track, making it easier for more consumers to get in over their heads, some experts have cautioned — even more than credit cards, which are simpler to account for, despite sky-high interest rates.

The problem with credit cards and BNPL

To be sure, credit cards are one of the most expensive ways to borrow money. The average credit card charges more than 20% — near an all-time high.

Alternatively, the option to pay in installments can make financial sense, especially at 0%. 

And yet, buy now, pay later loans “are just another form of credit, disguised as something for free,” said Howard Dvorkin, a certified public accountant and the chairman of Debt.com.

The more BNPL accounts open at once, the more prone consumers become to overspending, missed or late payments and poor credit history, other research shows.

If a consumer misses a payment, there could be late fees, deferred interest or other penalties, depending on the lender. In some cases, those interest rates can be as high as 30%, rivaling the highest credit card charges. 

“This is just another way for financers to put their hands in the pocket of consumers,” Dvorkin said. “It’s a trojan horse.”

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Here’s why the U.S. retirement system isn’t among the world’s best

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The U.S. retirement system doesn’t get high marks relative to other nations.

In fact, the U.S. got a C+ grade and ranked No. 29 out of 48 global pension systems in 2024, according to the annual Mercer CFA Institute Global Pension Index, released Tuesday. It analyzed both public and private sources of retirement funds, like Social Security and 401(k) plans.

A similar index compiled by Natixis Investment Management puts the U.S. at No. 22 out of 44 nations this year. Its position has declined from a decade ago, when it ranked No. 18.

“I think [a C+ grade] would describe a rating where there is a lot of room for improvement,” said Christine Mahoney, global retirement leader at Mercer, a consulting firm.

The Netherlands placed No. 1, followed by Iceland, Denmark and Israel, respectively, which all received “A” grades, according to Mercer. Singapore, Australia, Finland and Norway got a B+.

Fourteen nations — Chile, Sweden, the United Kingdom, Switzerland, Uruguay, New Zealand, Belgium, Mexico, Canada, Ireland, France, Germany, Croatia and Portugal — got a B.

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Of course, retirement systems differ since they address a nation’s unique economies, social and cultural norms, politics and history, according to the Mercer report. However, there are certain traits that can generally determine how well older citizens fare financially, the report found.

The U.S. system is often referred to as a three-legged stool, consisting of Social Security, workplace retirement plans and individual savings.

The lackluster standing by the U.S. in the world is largely due to a sizable gap in the share of people who have access to a workplace retirement plan, and for the ample opportunities for “leakage” of savings from accounts before retirement, Mahoney said.

Employers aren’t required to offer a retirement plan like a pension or 401(k) plan to workers. About 72% of workers in the private sector had access to one in March 2024, and about half (53%) participated, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.  

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“The people who have [a plan], it’s probably pretty good on average, but you have a lot of people who have nothing,” Mahoney said.

By contrast, some of the highest-ranked countries like the Netherlands “cover essentially all workers in the country,” said Graham Pearce, Mercer’s global defined benefit segment leader.

Additionally, top-rated nations generally have greater restrictions relative to the U.S. on how much cash citizens can withdraw before retirement, Pearce explained.

American workers can withdraw their 401(k) savings when they switch jobs, for example.

About 40% of workers who leave a job cash out “prematurely” each year, according to the Employee Benefit Research Institute. A separate academic study from 2022 examined more than 160,000 U.S. employees who left their jobs from 2014 to 2016, and found that about 41% cashed out at least some of their 401(k) — and 85% completely drained their balance.

Employers are also legally allowed to cash out small 401(k) balances and send workers a check.

While the U.S. might offer more flexibility to people who need to tap their funds in case of emergencies, for example, this so-called leakage also reduces the amount of savings they have available in old age, experts said.

“If you’re someone who moves through jobs, has low savings rates and leakage, it makes it difficult to build your own retirement nest egg,” said David Blanchett, head of retirement research at PGIM, Prudential’s investment management arm.

Social Security is considered a major income source for most older Americans, providing the majority of their retirement income for a significant portion of the population over 65 years old.

To that point, about nine out of 10 people aged 65 and older were receiving a Social Security benefit as of June 30, according to the Social Security Administration.

Social Security benefits are generally tied to a worker’s wage and work history, Blanchett said. For example, the amount is pegged to a worker’s 35-highest years of pay.

While benefits are progressive, meaning lower earners generally replace a bigger share of their pre-retirement paychecks than higher earners, Social Security’s minimum benefit is lesser than other nations, like those in Scandinavia, with public retirement programs, Blanchett said.

“It’s less of a safety net,” he said.

“There’s something to be said that, as a public pension benefit, increasing the minimum benefit for all retirees would strengthen the retirement resiliency for all Americans,” Blanchett said.

That said, policymakers are trying to resolve some of these issues.

For example, 17 states have established so-called auto-IRA programs in a bid to close the coverage gap, according to the Georgetown University Center for Retirement Initiatives.

These programs generally require employers who don’t offer a workplace retirement plan to automatically enroll workers into the state plan and facilitate payroll deduction.

A recent federal law known as Secure 2.0 also expanded aspects of the retirement system. For example, it made more part-time workers eligible to participate in a 401(k) and raised the dollar threshold for employers to cash out balances for departing workers.

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