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Fed’s Hammack calls for patience in assessing what impacts tariffs will have on the economy

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Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said Thursday she thinks policymakers need to be patient rather than pre-emptive in assessing how tariffs will impact inflation and growth.

In her first broadcast interview since taking the reins at the central bank district in August 2024, Hammack noted the high level of uncertainty now and did not commit to a specific course of action regarding interest rate policy.

“I think we need to be patient. I think this is a time when we want to make sure we’re moving in the right direction, than moving too quickly in the wrong direction,” she told CNBC’s “Squawk Box.” “So I would rather take our time make sure we’re looking at the data, the hard data … which are actually really good.”

Hammack’s remarks come at a sensitive time for the Fed, which has been left to assess the impact of President Donald Trump’s tariffs on both inflation and employment.

Several central bank officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, have said the duties pose threats to both sides of the Fed’s “dual mandate,” posing another challenge on how to calibrate monetary policy. Hammack also voiced concerns over how the Fed might balance those priorities.

“It could be that we have the two sides of our mandate and conflict, which is the most challenging for monetary policy,” she said. “If it’s higher inflation, lower employment, that’s where things get really complicated.”

Markets strongly expect the Fed will stand pat on interest rates when it meets May 6-7, then resume cutting rates in June with the likelihood of a total three or four cuts by the end of the year, according to CME Group data.

“If we have convincing data by June, then I think you’ll see the committee move if we know which way to move at that point,” Hammack said.

However, uncertainty over tariff policy and how the Fed might react has contributed to substantial market volatility in recent months, with stocks struggling, Treasury yields rising and the U.S. dollar falling.

A former Goldman Sachs executive, Hammack said she is sensitive to market movements but only in how they affect broader economic conditions.

“Our job is not to focus on what the markets are doing. Our job is to focus on how that’s going to impact households and businesses, and what that’s going to mean in the real economy,” she said. “So we’re not steering the markets. We’re steering the real economy.”

Hammack noted that the “hard” economic data such as unemployment and inflation is still relatively good, while “soft” data such as surveys shows elevated levels of concern.

“What we’re hearing right now is that the uncertainty is really weighing on businesses,” she said. “It’s creating issues for them in terms of planning, in terms of thinking about where they’re going to go, and so some of them have put pauses on whether they’re going to make bigger investments, whether they’re going to invest in new facilities, new capital plans, and then they’re thinking about their hiring plans.”

“I wish I had a crystal ball. We don’t have one,” Hammack added.

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Israel-Hamas conflict a potential business risk in eToro IPO filing

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Yoni Assia, Co-Founder and CEO of eToro, speaks during the Milken Institute Global Conference in Beverly Hills, California, on May 2, 2023.

Patrick T. Fallon | Afp | Getty Images

In eToro‘s IPO filing, ahead of the company’s market debut on Wednesday, the stock trading platform spent over 1,500 words spelling out the potential risks of operating in Israel, home to corporate headquarters.

While the current military conflict between Israel and Hamas hasn’t “materially impacted” business, “the continuation of the war and any escalation or expansion of the war could have a negative impact on both global and regional conditions and may adversely affect our business, financial condition, and results of operations,” eToro wrote in a section of the filing titled “Risks related to our operations in Israel.”

The company, which lets users trade stocks, commodities and cryptocurrencies, was founded in 2007 by brothers Yoni and Ronen Assia and David Ring, and is based in Bnei Brak, near Tel Aviv.

In its prospectus, eToro referenced the attacks of Oct. 7, 2023, by Palestinian Islamist group Hamas on Israel. In the year and a half since then, the two sides have mostly been at war in the Gaza Strip, where tens of thousands of Palestinians have been killed and much of the area has been made uninhabitable.

Tensions have also escalated with other designated militant groups in the region, including Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen.

“It is possible that these hostilities will escalate in the future into a greater regional conflict, and that additional terrorist organizations and, possibly, countries, will actively join the hostilities,” eToro wrote, adding that the magnitude of the conflict is “difficult to predict.”

Yoni Assia, eToro’s CEO, told CNBC in an interview that the company’s business is global, with operations worldwide. Regarding the challenges of being in Israel, Yoni Assia said “everything is in the risk factors.”

“We do hope to see more peaceful times,” he said. “It’s better for everyone and for our employees from a business point of view.” 

EToro, which competes with Robinhood, had its Nasdaq debut on Wednesday. The stock popped 29% a day after eToro priced shares above the expected range. At the close of trading, the company was valued at about $5.4 billion.

EToro’s IPO comes as several tech companies get set to test the public markets following an extended drought dating back to the soaring inflation of 2022.

After the attacks of Oct.7, thousands of Israelis were called up for extended active reserve duty that caused some disruption to the country’s flourishing tech community. Ongoing obligations could “impact our competitive position and cause our sales to decrease,” eToro wrote.

Israel has also faced some backlash for its military campaign in Gaza.

The eToro filing cited International Criminal Court warrants for the arrests of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his former minister of defense, and calls for boycotts from activist groups as potential roadblocks for the business.

The country has also been hit with credit downgrades from Fitch, Moody’s and S&P Global that could harm eToro’s operations, the filing said.

Etoro said that intensified cyberattacks since 2023, and potential damages from armed attacks, could raise costs or incapacitate its workforce due to safety concerns.

The company also highlighted tax law differences between the U.S. and Israel and the location of its executives as a potential risk factor.

“It may be difficult to enforce a U.S. judgment against us, our officers and directors in Israel or the United States, or to assert U.S. securities laws claims in Israel or serve process on our officers and directors,” eToro wrote.

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