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Fed’s key gauge rose 2.5%

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Fed’s key inflation gauge rose 2.5% in June from a year ago, in line with expectations

An important gauge for the Federal Reserve showed inflation eased slightly from a year ago in June, helping to open the way for a widely anticipated September interest rate cut.

The personal consumption expenditures price index increased 0.1% on the month and was up 2.5% from a year ago, in line with Dow Jones estimates, the Commerce Department reported Friday. The year-over-year gain in May was 2.6%, while the monthly measure was unchanged.

Fed officials use the PCE measure as their main baseline to gauge inflation, which continues to run above the central bank’s 2% long-range target.

Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, showed a monthly increase of 0.2% and 2.6% on the year, both also in line with expectations. Policymakers focus even more on core as a better gauge of longer-run trends as gas and groceries costs tend to fluctuate more than other items.

Stock market futures indicated a positive open on Wall Street following the release while Treasury yields moved lower. Futures markets price in a more aggressive path for Fed interest rate cuts.

“A two-word summary of the report is, ‘good enough,'” said Robert Frick, corporate economist with Navy Federal Credit Union. “Spending is good enough to maintain the expansion, and income is good enough to maintain spending, and the level of PCE inflation is good enough to make the decision to cut rates easy for the Fed.”

Goods prices fell 0.2% on the month while services increased 0.2%. Housing-related prices in June rose 0.3%, a slight deceleration from the 0.4% increase in each of the last three months and the smallest monthly gain going back at least to January 2023.

The report also indicated that personal income rose just 0.2%, below the 0.4% estimate. Spending increased 0.3%, meeting the forecast.

As spending held relatively strong, the savings rate decreased to 3.4%, hitting its lowest level since November 2022.

The report comes with markets paying close attention to which way the Fed is headed on monetary policy.

There’s little expectation that the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee will make any moves at its policy meeting next Tuesday and Wednesday. However, market pricing is pointing strongly to a rate cut at the September meeting, which would be the first reduction since the early days of the Covid pandemic.

“Overall, it’s been a good week for the Fed. The economy appears to be on solid ground, and PCE inflation essentially remained steady,” said Chris Larkin, managing director of trading and investing at E-Trade Morgan Stanley. “But a rate cut next week remains a longshot. And while there’s plenty of time for the economic picture to change before the September FOMC meeting, the numbers have been trending in the Fed’s direction.”

As inflation rose to its highest level in more than 40 years in mid-2022, the Fed embarked on a series of aggressive hikes that took its benchmark borrowing rate to its highest level in some 23 years. However, the Fed has been on pause for the past year as it evaluates fluctuating data that earlier this year showed a resurgence in inflation but lately has displayed a gradual cooling that has many policymakers discussing the likelihood of at least one cut this year.

Futures markets have priced in about a 90% chance of a September reduction followed by cuts at both the November and December FOMC meetings, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch measure.

Fed officials, though, have been cautious in their remarks and have stressed that there is no set policy path, with data guiding the way.

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Germany’s economy chief Reiche sets out roadmap to end turmoil

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09 May 2025, Bavaria, Gmund Am Tegernsee: Katherina Reiche (CDU), Federal Minister for Economic Affairs and Energy, takes part in the Ludwig Erhard Summit. Representatives from business, politics, science and the media are taking part in the three-day summit. Photo: Sven Hoppe/dpa (Photo by Sven Hoppe/picture alliance via Getty Images)

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Germany needs to take more risks and boost its stagnant economy with a decade of investment in infrastructure, German Minister for Economic Affairs and Energy Katherina Reiche said Friday.

“The next decade will be the decade of infrastructure investments in bridges, in energy infrastructure, in storage, in maritime infrastructure… telecommunication. And for this, we need speed. We need speed and investments, and we need private capital,” Reiche told CNBC’s Annette Weisbach on the sidelines of the Tegernsee summit.

While 10% of investments could be taken care of with public money, the remaining 90% relied on the private sector, she said.

The newly minted economy minister also addressed regulation coming from Brussels, warning that it could hinder companies from investments and start-ups from growing if it is too restrictive. Germany has had to learn that investments comes with risks “and we have to kind of be open for taking more risks,” she said.

Watch CNBC's full interview with German Economy Minister Katherina Reiche

“This country needs an economic turnaround. After two years of recessions the previous government had to announce again [a] zero growth year for 2025 and we really have to work on this. So on the top of the agenda is an investor booster,” the minister added.

Lowering energy prices, stabilizing the security of energy supply and reducing bureaucracy were among the key points on the agenda, Reiche said.

Germany’s economy contracted slightly on an annual basis in both 2023 and 2024 and the quarterly gross domestic product has been flipping between growth and contraction for over two years now, just about managing to avoid a technical recession. Preliminary data for the first quarter of 2025 showed a 0.2% expansion.

Forecasts do not suggest much of a reprieve from the sluggishness, with the now former German government last month saying it still expects the economy to stagnate this year.

This is despite a major fiscal U-turn announced earlier this year, which included changes to the country’s long-standing debt rules to allow for additional defense spending and a 500-billion-euro ($562.4 billion) infrastructure package.

Several of Germany’s key industries are under pressure. The auto industry for example is dealing with stark competition from China and now faces tariffs, while issues in housebuilding and infrastructure have been linked to higher costs and bureaucratic hurdles.

Trade is also a key pillar for the German economy and therefore uncertainty from U.S. President Donald Trump’s changing tariff policies are weighing heavily on the outlook.

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Andrew Bailey on why UK-U.S. trade deal won’t end uncertainty

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Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey attends the central bank’s Monetary Policy Report press conference at the Bank of England, in the City of London, on May 8, 2025.

Carlos Jasso | Afp | Getty Images

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey told CNBC on Thursday that the U.K. was heading for more economic uncertainty, despite the country being the first to strike a trade agreement with the U.S. under President Donald Trump’s controversial tariff regime.

“The tariff and trade situation has injected more uncertainty into the situation… There’s more uncertainty now than there was in the past,” Bailey told CNBC in an interview.

“A U.K.-U.S. trade agreement is very welcome in that sense, very welcome. But the U.K. is a very open economy,” he continued.

That means that the impact from tariffs on the U.K. economy comes not just from its own trade relationship with Washington, but also from those of the U.S. and the rest of the world, he said.

“I hope that what we’re seeing on the U.K.-U.S. trade side will be the first of many, and it will be repeated by a whole series of trade agreements, but we have to see that happen of course, and where it actually ends up.”

“Because, of course, we are looking at tariff levels that are probably higher than they were beforehand.”

Trump unveils United Kingdom trade deal, first since ‘reciprocal’ tariff pause

In Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Report released Thursday, the word “uncertainty” was used 41 times across its 97 pages, up from 36 times in February, according to a CNBC tally.

The U.K. central bank cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point on Thursday, taking its key rate to 4.25%. The decision was highly divided among the seven members of its Monetary Policy Committee, with five voting for the 25 basis point cut, two voting to hold rates and two voting to reduce by a larger 50 basis points.

Bailey said that while some analysts had perceived the rate decision as more hawkish than expected — in other words, leaning toward holding rates elevated than slashing them rapidly — he was not surprised by the close vote.

“What it reflects is that there are two sides, there are risks on both sides here,” he told CNBC.

“We could get a much more severe weakness of demand than we were expecting, that could then pass through to a weaker outlook for inflation than we were expecting.”

“There’s a risk on the other side that we could get some combination of more persistence in the inflation effects that are gradually working their way through the system,” such as in wages and energy, while “supply capacity in the economy is weaker,” he said.

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Economics

Trump knocks down a controversial pillar of civil-rights law

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IN THE DELUGE of 145 executive orders issued by President Donald Trump (on subjects as disparate as “Restoring American Seafood Competitiveness” and “Maintaining Acceptable Water Pressure in Showerheads”) it can be difficult to discern which are truly consequential. But one of them, signed on April 23rd under the bland headline “Restoring Equality of Opportunity and Meritocracy”, aims to remake civil-rights law. Those primed to distrust Mr Trump on such matters may be surprised to learn that the president’s target is not just important but also well-chosen.

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