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Final fourth quarter GDP revised upwards as consumer spending rises

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An uptick in consumer spending helped boost U.S. economic growth in the fourth quarter. (iStock)

The third and final estimate for real gross domestic product (GDP) in the fourth quarter of 2023 was revised upwards, showing that the U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 3.4%, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).

The reading comes just above the BEA’s second GDP estimate for the fourth quarter, which showed the economy increased at 3.2%. The change primarily reflects upward revisions to consumer spending and nonresidential fixed investment.  

Real GDP increased at an annual rate of 3.4% for the October-through-December period after rising 4.9% in the third quarter of 2023. Thursday’s final reading comes just under the BEA’s original GDP estimate for the fourth quarter, which showed the economy increased at a rate of 3.3% and beat economic forecasts that anticipated a deceleration of growth over the previous month with the expectation that the economy would expand by a 2% rate.

Economic growth is a crucial metric the Federal Reserve is monitoring as it weighs when it will begin dialing back interest rates. Fed officials have predicted at least three rate cuts this year, with interest rates expected to tick down to 4.6%, according to the central bank’s updated economic forecasts in its Summary of Economic Projections (SEP).  Market expectations are that the first rate cut will come in the summer, if not later in the year. 

If you are struggling with high inflation, you could consider taking out a personal loan to pay down debt at a lower interest rate, reducing your monthly payments. You can visit Credible to find your personalized interest rate without affecting your credit score.

SOCIAL SECURITY: COLA INCREASING BUT MEDICARE COSTS RISING TOO IN 2024

High rates weigh on consumer wallets

The Fed’s decision to keep interest rates higher for longer puts a strain on consumer wallets and how much they pay to borrow, according to Michele Raneri, the vice president of U.S. research and consulting at TransUnion.

According to a recent TransUnion report, credit card balances surged past the $1 trillion mark for the first time in the fourth quarter of 2023. While Americans charged on their cards, they also increased their unsecured personal loan balances in the fourth quarter. Personal origination balances topped $245 billion, compared to $222 billion the previous year.

“While inflation continues to trend towards more normal levels, today’s decision from the Fed is to hold interest rates at their current levels and that any potential decreases will take place later in 2024,” Raneri said. “This means U.S. consumers who continue to face relatively high-interest rates across a range of credit products will have to wait at least a bit longer for rate relief. When rates do begin falling, the effects throughout the credit industry will be real but will likely be slow to take root.”

Consumers can explore refinancing any high-interest debt into lower-interest credit products to reduce balances once interest rates are brought down, according to Raneri.

If you’re worried about high-interest debt, you could consider paying it off with a personal loan at a lower rate to reduce your monthly payments. Visit Credible to get your personalized rate in minutes. 

MILLENNIALS ARE DESPERATE TO BUY A HOME, MOST WILLING TO PAY A MORTGAGE RATE ABOVE 7%: SURVEY

Consumer optimism improving

Despite the economic challenges, consumer confidence hit a record high in March. The University of Michigan’s benchmark Consumer Sentiment Index rose 3.3% in March to a final reading of 79.4, the highest since July 2021, the University of Michigan said in a report.

The number reflects the improved consumer outlook that inflation will continue to soften and that personal finances will also be lifted as the effects of high prices and expenses on living standards ease, the report said.  

Consumers may be more optimistic, but the index remains far from its pre-pandemic highs, reflecting the long shadow of high inflation, according to Jim Baird, Plante Moran Financial Advisors’ chief investment officer.

“Consumers are far from ebullient in their assessment of the current state of the economy, their personal financial prospects, and the outlook for the economy further down the path,” Baird said. “The fact that consumer sentiment remains constrained against the backdrop of a robust labor economy, strong wage growth, and above-trend economic growth is a direct reflection of the corrosive effects of surging inflation in recent years.

“Paychecks may have experienced a nice boost in recent years, but when those additional dollars are going right back out the door to cover the rising cost of rent, food, gasoline, personal services, and a host of other expenditures, it’s no surprise that consumers aren’t more upbeat,” Baird continued.

If you are struggling to pay off debt, you could consider using a personal loan to consolidate your payments at a lower interest rate, saving you money each month. You can visit Credible to find your personalized interest rate without affecting your credit score.

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Have a finance-related question, but don’t know who to ask? Email The Credible Money Expert at [email protected] and your question might be answered by Credible in our Money Expert column.

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India may have fastest growing e-commerce sector

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India: the "perfect" emerging market

Investors may want to consider adding exposure to the world’s second-largest emerging market.

According to EMQQ Global founder Kevin Carter, India’s technology sector is extremely attractive right now.

“It’s the tip of the spear of growth [in e-commerce] … not just in emerging markets, but on the planet,” Carter told CNBC’s “ETF Edge” this week. 

His firm is behind the INQQ The India Internet ETF, which was launched in 2022. The India Internet ETF is up almost 21% so far this year, as of Friday’s close.

‘DoorDash of India’

One of Carter’s top plays is Zomato, which he calls “the DoorDash of India.” Zomato stock is up 128% this year.

“One of the reasons Zomato has done so well this year is because the quick commerce business blanket has exceeded expectations,” Carter said. “It now looks like it’s going to be the biggest business at Zomato.”

Carter noted his bullishness comes from a population that is just starting to go online.

“They’re getting their first-ever computer today basically,” he said, “You’re giving billions of people super computers in their pocket internet access.”

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How the Federal Reserve’s rate policy affects mortgages

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The Federal Reserve lowered its interest rate target three times in 2024.

This has many Americans waiting for mortgage rates to fall. But that may not happen for some time.

“I think the best case scenario is we’re going to continue to see mortgage rates hover around six and a half to 7%,” said Jordan Jackson, a global market strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management. “So unfortunately for those homeowners who are looking for a bit of a reprieve on the mortgage rate side, that may not come to fruition,” Jordan said in an interview with CNBC.

Mortgage rates can be influenced by Fed policy. But the rates are more closely tied to long-term borrowing rates for government debt. The 10-year Treasury note yield has been increasing in recent months as investors consider more expansionary fiscal policies that may come from Washington in 2025. This, combined with signals sent from the market for mortgage-backed securities, determine the rates issued within new mortgages.

Economists at Fannie Mae say the Fed’s management of its mortgage-backed securities portfolio may contribute to today’s mortgage rates.

In the pandemic, the Fed bought huge amounts of assets, including mortgage-backed securities, to adjust demand and supply dynamics within the bond market. Economists also refer to the technique as “quantitative easing.”

Quantitative easing can reduce the spread between mortgage rates and Treasury yields, which leads to cheaper loan terms for home buyers. It can also provide opportunities for owners looking to refinance their mortgages. The Fed’s use of this technique in the pandemic brought mortgages rates to record lows in 2021.

“They were extra aggressive in 2021 with buying mortgage-backed securities. So, the [quantitative easing] was probably ill-advised at the time.” said Matthew Graham, COO of Mortgage News Daily.

In 2022, the Federal Reserve kicked off plans to reduce the balance of its holdings, primarily by allowing those assets to mature and “roll-off” of its balance sheet. This process is known as “quantitative tightening,” and it may add upward pressure on the spread between mortgage rates and Treasury yields.

“I think that’s one of the reasons the mortgage rates are still going in the wrong direction from the Federal Reserve’s standpoint,” said George Calhoun, director of the Hanlon Financial Systems Center at Stevens Institute of Technology.

Watch the video above to learn how the Fed’s decisions affect mortgage rates.

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Fintechs are 2024’s biggest gainers among financials

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Jason Wilk

Source: Jason Wilk

Jason Wilk, the CEO of digital banking service Dave, remembers the absolute low point in his brief career as head of a publicly-traded firm.

It was June 2023, and shares of his company had recently dipped below $5 apiece. Desperate to keep Dave afloat, Wilk found himself at a Los Angeles conference for micro-cap stocks, where he pitched investors on tiny $5,000 stakes in his firm.

“I’m not going to lie, this was probably the hardest time of my life,” Wilk told CNBC. “To go from being a $5 billion company to $50 million in 12 months, it was so freaking hard.”

But in the months that followed, Dave turned profitable and consistently topped Wall Street analyst expectations for revenue and profit. Now, Wilk’s company is the top gainer for 2024 among U.S. financial stocks, with a 934% year-to-date surge through Thursday.

The fintech firm, which makes money by extending small loans to cash-strapped Americans, is emblematic of a larger shift that’s still in its early stages, according to JMP Securities analyst Devin Ryan.

Investors had dumped high-flying fintech companies in 2022 as a wave of unprofitable firms like Dave went public via special purpose acquisition companies. The environment turned suddenly, from rewarding growth at any cost to deep skepticism of how money-losing firms would navigate rising interest rates as the Federal Reserve battled inflation.

Now, with the Fed easing rates, investors have rushed back into financial firms of all sizes, including alternative asset managers like KKR and credit card companies like American Express, the top performers among financial stocks this year with market caps of at least $100 billion and $200 billion, respectively.

Big investment banks including Goldman Sachs, the top gainer among the six largest U.S. banks, have also surged this year on hope for a rebound in Wall Street deals activity.

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Dave, a fintech firm taking on big banks like JPMorgan Chase, is a standout stock this year.

But it’s fintech firms like Dave and Robinhood, the commission-free trading app, that are the most promising heading into next year, Ryan said.

Robinhood, whose shares have surged 190% this year, is the top gainer among financial firms with a market cap of at least $10 billion.

“Both Dave and Robinhood went from losing money to being incredibly profitable firms,” Ryan said. “They’ve gotten their house in order by growing their revenues at an accelerating rate while managing expenses at the same time.”

While Ryan views valuations for investment banks and alternative asset manages as approaching “stretched” levels, he said that “fintechs still have a long way to run; they are early in their journey.”

Financials broadly had already begun benefitting from the Fed easing cycle when the election victory of Donald Trump last month intensified interest in the sector. Investors expect Trump will ease regulation and allow for more innovation with government appointments including ex-PayPal executive and Silicon Valley investor David Sacks as AI and crypto czar.

Those expectations have boosted the shares of entrenched players like JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup, but have had a greater impact on potential disruptors like Dave that could see even more upside from a looser regulatory environment.

Gas & groceries

Dave has built a niche among Americans underserved by traditional banks by offering fee-free checking and savings accounts.

It makes money mostly by extending small loans of around $180 each to help users “pay for gas and groceries” until their next paycheck, according to Wilk; Dave makes roughly $9 per loan on average.

Customers come out ahead by avoiding more expensive forms of credit from other institutions, including $35 overdraft fees charged by banks, he said. Dave, which is not a bank, but partners with one, does not charge late fees or interest on cash advances.

The company also offers a debit card, and interchange fees from transactions made by Dave customers will make up an increasing share of revenue, Wilk said.

While the fintech firm faces far less skepticism now than it did in mid-2023— of the seven analysts who track it, all rate the stock a “buy,” according to Factset — Wilk said the company still has more to prove.

“Our business is so much better now than we went public, but it’s still priced 60% below the IPO price,” he said. “Hopefully we can claw our way back.”

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