Finance
Final fourth quarter GDP revised upwards as consumer spending rises
An uptick in consumer spending helped boost U.S. economic growth in the fourth quarter. (iStock)
The third and final estimate for real gross domestic product (GDP) in the fourth quarter of 2023 was revised upwards, showing that the U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 3.4%, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
The reading comes just above the BEA’s second GDP estimate for the fourth quarter, which showed the economy increased at 3.2%. The change primarily reflects upward revisions to consumer spending and nonresidential fixed investment.
Real GDP increased at an annual rate of 3.4% for the October-through-December period after rising 4.9% in the third quarter of 2023. Thursday’s final reading comes just under the BEA’s original GDP estimate for the fourth quarter, which showed the economy increased at a rate of 3.3% and beat economic forecasts that anticipated a deceleration of growth over the previous month with the expectation that the economy would expand by a 2% rate.
Economic growth is a crucial metric the Federal Reserve is monitoring as it weighs when it will begin dialing back interest rates. Fed officials have predicted at least three rate cuts this year, with interest rates expected to tick down to 4.6%, according to the central bank’s updated economic forecasts in its Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). Market expectations are that the first rate cut will come in the summer, if not later in the year.
If you are struggling with high inflation, you could consider taking out a personal loan to pay down debt at a lower interest rate, reducing your monthly payments. You can visit Credible to find your personalized interest rate without affecting your credit score.
SOCIAL SECURITY: COLA INCREASING BUT MEDICARE COSTS RISING TOO IN 2024
High rates weigh on consumer wallets
The Fed’s decision to keep interest rates higher for longer puts a strain on consumer wallets and how much they pay to borrow, according to Michele Raneri, the vice president of U.S. research and consulting at TransUnion.
According to a recent TransUnion report, credit card balances surged past the $1 trillion mark for the first time in the fourth quarter of 2023. While Americans charged on their cards, they also increased their unsecured personal loan balances in the fourth quarter. Personal origination balances topped $245 billion, compared to $222 billion the previous year.
“While inflation continues to trend towards more normal levels, today’s decision from the Fed is to hold interest rates at their current levels and that any potential decreases will take place later in 2024,” Raneri said. “This means U.S. consumers who continue to face relatively high-interest rates across a range of credit products will have to wait at least a bit longer for rate relief. When rates do begin falling, the effects throughout the credit industry will be real but will likely be slow to take root.”
Consumers can explore refinancing any high-interest debt into lower-interest credit products to reduce balances once interest rates are brought down, according to Raneri.
If you’re worried about high-interest debt, you could consider paying it off with a personal loan at a lower rate to reduce your monthly payments. Visit Credible to get your personalized rate in minutes.
MILLENNIALS ARE DESPERATE TO BUY A HOME, MOST WILLING TO PAY A MORTGAGE RATE ABOVE 7%: SURVEY
Consumer optimism improving
Despite the economic challenges, consumer confidence hit a record high in March. The University of Michigan’s benchmark Consumer Sentiment Index rose 3.3% in March to a final reading of 79.4, the highest since July 2021, the University of Michigan said in a report.
The number reflects the improved consumer outlook that inflation will continue to soften and that personal finances will also be lifted as the effects of high prices and expenses on living standards ease, the report said.
Consumers may be more optimistic, but the index remains far from its pre-pandemic highs, reflecting the long shadow of high inflation, according to Jim Baird, Plante Moran Financial Advisors’ chief investment officer.
“Consumers are far from ebullient in their assessment of the current state of the economy, their personal financial prospects, and the outlook for the economy further down the path,” Baird said. “The fact that consumer sentiment remains constrained against the backdrop of a robust labor economy, strong wage growth, and above-trend economic growth is a direct reflection of the corrosive effects of surging inflation in recent years.
“Paychecks may have experienced a nice boost in recent years, but when those additional dollars are going right back out the door to cover the rising cost of rent, food, gasoline, personal services, and a host of other expenditures, it’s no surprise that consumers aren’t more upbeat,” Baird continued.
If you are struggling to pay off debt, you could consider using a personal loan to consolidate your payments at a lower interest rate, saving you money each month. You can visit Credible to find your personalized interest rate without affecting your credit score.
THIS IS THE #1 CITY FOR FIRST-TIME HOMEBUYERS, AND OTHER HOT US HOUSING MARKETS
Have a finance-related question, but don’t know who to ask? Email The Credible Money Expert at [email protected] and your question might be answered by Credible in our Money Expert column.
Chinese e-commerce company Alibaba has invested heavily in its fast-growing international business as growth slows for its China-focused Taobao and Tmall business.
Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images
BEIJING — Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba‘s international arm on Wednesday launched an updated version of its artificial intelligence-powered translation tool that, it says, is better than products offered by Google, DeepL and ChatGPT.
That’s based on an assessment of Alibaba International’s new model, Marco MT, by translation benchmark framework Flores, the Chinese company said.
Alibaba’s fast-growing international unit released the AI translation product as an update to one unveiled about a year ago, which it says already has 500,000 merchant users. Sellers based in one country can use the translation tool to create product pages in the language of the target market.
The new version is based only on large language models, allowing it to draw on contextual clues such as culture or industry-specific terms, Kaifu Zhang, vice president of Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group and head of the business’ artificial intelligence initiative, told CNBC in an interview Tuesday.
“The idea is that we want this AI tool to help the bottom line of the merchants, because if the merchants are doing well, the platform will be doing well,” he said.
Large language models power artificial intelligence applications such as OpenAI’s ChatGPT, which can also translate text. The models, trained on massive amounts of data, can generate humanlike responses to user prompts.
Alibaba’s translation tool is based on its own model called Qwen. The product supports 15 languages: Arabic, Chinese, Dutch, English, French, German, Italian, Japanese, Korean, Polish, Portuguese, Russian, Spanish, Turkish and Ukrainian.
Zhang said he expects “substantial demand” for the tool from Europe and the Americas. He also expects emerging markets to be a significant area of use.
When users of Alibaba.com — a site for suppliers to sell to businesses — are categorized by country, developing countries account for about half of the top 20 active AI tool users, Zhang said.
Chinese companies have increasingly looked abroad for growth opportunities, especially e-commerce merchants. PDD Holdings‘ Temu, fast fashion seller Shein and ByteDance’s TikTok are among the recent global market entrants. Many China-based merchants also sell on Amazon.com.
Contextual clues
Since Alibaba launched the first version of its AI translation tool last fall, the company said merchants have used it for more than 100 million product listings. Similar to other AI-based services, the basic pricing charges merchants by the amount of translated text.
Zhang declined to share how much the updated version would cost. He said it was included in some service bundles for merchants wanting simple exposure to overseas users.
His thinking is that contextual translation makes it much more likely that consumers decide to buy. He shared an example in which a colloquial Chinese description for a slipper would have turned off English-speaking consumers if it was only translated literally, without getting at the implied meaning.
“The updated translation engine is going to make Double 11 a better experience for consumers because of more authentic expression,” Zhang said, in reference to the Alibaba-led shopping festival that centers on Nov. 11 each year.
Alibaba’s international business includes platforms such as AliExpress and Lazada, which primarily targets Southeast Asia. The international unit reported sales growth of 32% to $4.03 billion in the quarter ended June from a year ago.
That’s in contrast to a 1% year-on-year drop in sales to $15.6 billion for Alibaba’s main Taobao and Tmall e-commerce business, which has focused on China.
The Taobao app is also popular with consumers in Singapore. In September, the app launched an AI-powered English version for users in the country.
Nomura analysts expect that Alibaba’s international revenue slowed slightly to 29% year-on-year growth in the quarter ended September, while operating losses narrowed, according to an Oct. 10 report. Alibaba has yet to announce when it will release quarterly earnings.
Here’s how long it will take for inflation to hurt less, according to Fed’s Daly
‘I’m convinced the U.S. will be drawn into World War III’: How do I prepare my finances?
The bond market may be at risk from inflationary forces beyond the Fed’s control
Are American progressives making themselves sad?
U.S. Beneficial Ownership Information Registry Now Accepting Reports
CPA licensure program off to ‘promising’ start
-
Personal Finance5 days agoInvestors face delays moving certain assets from TreasuryDirect
-
Stock News5 days agoBeleaguered Stellantis ousts CFO, other top execs in bid to ‘redouble’ its focus
-
Economics6 days agoInflation rate at 2.4%, topping expectations
-
Economics6 days agoThe Democrats will struggle to retain the Senate
-
Economics6 days agoHurricane Milton inundates Florida
-
Finance5 days agoWells Fargo WFC Q3 2024 earnings
-
Personal Finance5 days agoOzempic drives up health-care costs, whether you can get it or not
-
Economics5 days agoProducer price index September 2024: