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Fixing Social Security requires addressing immigration ‘fraud’

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Republican vice presidential nominee, U.S. Sen. JD Vance speaks at a campaign rally at Radford University on July 22, 2024 in Radford, Virginia.

Alex Wong | Getty Images News | Getty Images

Many voters ages 50 and up say two issues — Social Security and Medicare — could decide how they cast their ballots this November.

The presidential candidate who wins on Nov. 5 — either former President Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris — may be tasked with restoring solvency to those programs as they face looming trust fund depletion dates.

Republican vice presidential candidate JD Vance, in a Sept. 12 interview on CNBC’s “Squawk Box,” said that first addressing another issue, immigration, could help the programs’ funding woes.

Vance said Social Security and Medicare are facing a “massive fraud problem” because of undocumented immigrants who are collecting benefits, citing what he said were incidents of fraud related to him by some of his constituents and friends.

“Before we start talking about doing anything to the benefits for Americans who have earned them, let’s deal with the illegal alien fraud in our Social Security and Medicare system,” Vance said. “I think that costs us a lot of money.”

JD Vance blames 'illegal aliens' for fraud problems in Social Security and Medicare

It’s not the first time the Trump-Vance campaign has suggested immigration is hurting the programs that millions of retirees rely on for monthly benefit checks and health-care coverage.

Trump in March said on social media platform Truth Social that Democrats are “killing Social Security and Medicare by allowing the invasion of the migrants.”

Meanwhile, Harris has talked about creating an “earned pathway to citizenship,” which may encourage immigrants to work and contribute to the programs. The Harris campaign did not provide CNBC more details on those plans.

Who is eligible to benefit from Social Security?

The Social Security Administration assigns a unique Social Security number to each individual who is either a U.S. citizen; is lawfully admitted to the country as a permanent resident; is lawfully admitted on a temporary basis with Department of Homeland Security authorization to work; or has a valid non-work reason for needing a Social Security number, according to the agency.

A Social Security number is required for most jobs in the U.S., and employers are typically required to deduct payroll taxes from each employee to fund programs including Social Security and Medicare.

Over many years of work, the employee usually contributes a sufficient amount to be eligible to claim monthly Social Security checks and Medicare benefits when they retire or become disabled.

Documented immigrants — such as those with permanent status and dual intent temporary visas — pay the payroll taxes that contribute to Social Security and Medicare, according to Tara Watson, a senior fellow at The Brookings Institution and author of the book “The Border Within: The Economics of Immigration in an Age of Fear.”

Generally, undocumented immigrants are not eligible for Social Security or Medicare benefits, Watson said, but they may pay in to the programs anyway.

Some undocumented immigrants may use false Social Security numbers to work in jobs that require payroll tax contributions to Social Security and Medicare, and therefore they unofficially contribute to those programs, she said. Others, such as seasonal workers, may not pay payroll taxes.

Many long-term immigrants do receive benefits after contributing to the programs and earning eligibility, Watson said. Immigrants may eventually qualify for Social Security benefits if they are present in the U.S. lawfully and earn the required credits by working and contributing to the program, according to the American Academy of Actuaries.

Undocumented immigrants contributed $33.9 billion in federal social insurance taxes in 2022 toward Social Security, Medicare and unemployment insurance, according to the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy.

Yet because of their immigration status, those workers are barred from accessing those benefits.

How widespread is Social Security fraud?

There are two common types of Social Security fraud involving immigration: When people who aren’t eligible for a Social Security number either steal one or create a false one so they can try to get a job in the U.S., and when people who aren’t eligible for Social Security or Medicare benefits use a fraudulent name or Social Security number to claim benefit payments.

Committing these kinds of fraud isn’t easy. 

But it is possible for some people, including some undocumented immigrants, to carry it out.

Stealing benefits can be difficult, since it requires tapping into someone’s Social Security account and changing their bank account information to access the money, according to Andrew Biggs, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and former principal deputy commissioner at the Social Security Administration.

After the Social Security Administration started allowing individuals to change their bank deposit information through their online accounts, the agency and the Office of Inspector General began receiving complaints of unauthorized changes, Jeffrey Brown, deputy assistant inspector general at the Social Security Administration Office of the Inspector General, told the House Ways and Means Committee in 2023.

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Audits found $33.5 million in benefits for 20,878 beneficiaries was redirected through unauthorized direct deposit changes between January 2013 and May 2018, according to Brown. However, another $23.9 million for 19,662 beneficiaries was prevented from misdirection by the agency before payments were made.

The investigation, from a 2019 report, did not implicate undocumented immigrants in that activity.

“Our audits found fraudsters may steal identities to work or to claim earnings-related benefits,” Brown said in his written testimony, which did not give demographic information on those committing the fraud.

There have been cases of undocumented immigrants found to be misusing Social Security numbers to fraudulently access benefits.

“There are certainly some immigrants who are getting benefits when they shouldn’t be, but I think it’s a relatively small group of them,” Watson said.

“This is not a problem that I’ve heard specifically that, as [Vance] says, is widespread,” Biggs said, referring to Vance’s comments about social services fraud by undocumented immigrants.

What happens to unclaimed earnings?

Immigrants in the labor market ‘very much a positive’

Immigration overall is a net positive to Social Security and Medicare, experts say.

Both programs rely on funding from payroll taxes. The experts say that more immigrants means more workers who contribute to both Social Security and Medicare through their paychecks.

“Immigration, in general, has a very positive role,” said Sam Gutterman, chairperson of the American Academy of Actuaries’ Social Security committee.

Neither the Social Security Administration nor the Department of Health and Human Services, which oversees Medicare, provided recent data on the effect of undocumented immigrants on their programs.

When asked about Vance’s statement that undocumented workers are draining Medicare and Social Security, HHS spokesperson Renata Miller said: “These claims are false and they serve as a distraction from the health care concerns that everyday Americans care about. HHS will continue working to lower health care costs so that patients can fill a prescription without rationing pills or going into medical debt.”

The Social Security Administration in an email explained that there are strict rules about who can legally receive benefits and Social Security numbers.

“The Social Security Act does not permit payment of benefits to noncitizens residing in the U.S. if they’re not lawfully present here,” a Social Security spokesperson said. “In order to get a Social Security number for work, by law you need to be a U.S. citizen or have [Department of Homeland Security] authorization. SSA has stringent evidentiary requirements to confirm the authenticity of documents and prevent issuance of numbers to ineligible individuals.”

In a 2013 report, the Social Security Administration said it is difficult to precisely identify the total amount of taxes paid and benefits that may have been received by unauthorized workers.

In that report, the office of the program’s chief actuary said undocumented immigrants paid as much as $13 billion in payroll taxes to the program’s trust funds in 2010, while about $1 billion in benefit payments were attributed to unauthorized work. That resulted in a contribution of roughly $12 billion to the program’s cash flow that year, according to the agency.

“We estimate that earnings by unauthorized immigrants result in a net positive effect on Social Security financial status generally,” the office of SSA’s chief actuary said.

“We estimate that future years will experience a continuation of this positive impact on the trust funds,” it wrote.

More recently, the Social Security Administration has said immigration tends to be beneficial for the program because those new entrants to the country tend to be working age.

“When they come to the country, they tend to come here for economic opportunity and enter the labor force, and that’s very much a positive,” Stephen Goss, chief actuary of the Social Security Administration, said in testimony before the House Budget Committee in June.

“That actually helps us with having more revenue coming in,” Goss said.

Those workers may eventually work the length of time necessary to qualify for benefits, Goss said.

However, some immigrants pay into the program and never collect benefits, he explained.

And if they have children, that helps to make up for the country’s low birth rate, which also benefits the program, Goss added.

Looming depletion dates are the more pressing issue

In a new report, the American Academy of Actuaries found immigration may “significantly enhance the future financial condition of Social Security, especially in the long term.” The report says immigration may help improve the worker-to-beneficiary ratio and slightly delay the depletion of the program’s trust funds.

However, immigration is “not a silver bullet to ‘solve’ 100% of Social Security’s financial problems,” according to the research, which analyzed the Social Security Administration’s latest annual trustees report.

Both Social Security and Medicare face pressures as the large baby boomer generation retires and taps the programs for benefits.

Absent action from Congress, the trust fund Social Security relies on to pay for retirement benefits is due to run out in 2033, when 79% of benefits will be payable, according to projections from the program’s trustees.

Medicare’s hospital insurance trust fund, also known as Part A, is projected to last until 2036, when 89% of benefits will be payable.

Biggs said the presidential campaigns should focus on policies to address those looming depletion dates that will prompt across-the-board benefit cuts, rather than fraud by undocumented immigrants, which is a much smaller issue for the programs.

Focusing on the undocumented immigrant angle first is a “total sideshow” when it comes to the larger Social Security and Medicare funding issues, Biggs said.

“I think he [Vance] is using it as a deflection because they don’t want to talk about fixing Social Security,” Biggs said.

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Two things Gen Z and millennial ETF investors should watch for, experts say

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Oscar Wong | Moment | Getty Images

John Healy began investing in exchange-traded funds when he was about 18 years old.

Back then, Healy said he worked as a security guard in a beach club earning an hourly wage of “$12 a pop” and relied on message boards on the internet to figure out what to buy or sell.

Today, Healy is a 25-year-old law clerk in New York City with a financial planner guiding his investments.

What hasn’t changed? His interest in baskets of securities designed to closely track an index.

“ETFs are still a vehicle for me to get action in the stock market,” Healy said.

He’s not alone. Young investors are tapping into exchange-traded funds at high rates.

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According to an annual report by Nasdaq, millennials and Gen Zers are the two most likely generational groups to have ETF holdings in their retirement accounts, at 81% and 75%, respectively. 

The survey polled 2,000 U.S. retail ETF investors in March. The report defines millennials as those born between 1981 and 1996, and Gen Z as those from 1997 to 2021.

The trend been growing for the past three years, or since Nasdaq has been conducting the report, said Alison Hennessy, head of exchange-traded product listings at Nasdaq.

“The continued growth of retail investors investing in ETFs is certainly not going away,” she said. 

Why ETFs have gained popularity

ETFs listed in the U.S. hit a record-breaking $900 billion in inflows and about 600 ETF launches this year, according to ETF.com.

The investment vehicle has been growing in popularity among investors in general in part due to the lower associated costs, tax benefits and accessibility compared to mutual funds, experts say.

“What really attracts investors to the ETF structure in general is, they’re easier to buy and sell directly on a brokerage account,” Hennessy said. 

The same can’t be said for a mutual fund, experts say. 

If you’re an active investor, you have the ability to make intra-day trades with an ETF, whereas a mutual fund won’t actually process your buy or sell order until after market close, explained Tommy Lucas, a certified financial planner and enrolled agent at Moisand Fitzgerald Tamayo in Orlando, Florida.

Rosenbluth: It is a record year for ETFs... that trend is likely to continue.

Meanwhile, associated fees with ETFs tend to be much lower compared to mutual funds and other index funds.

Index ETFs have a 0.44% average annual fee, half the 0.88% fee for index mutual funds, according to Morningstar. Similarly, active ETFs carry a 0.63% average fee, versus 1.02% for actively managed mutual funds, Morningstar data shows.

And ETFs do not typically trigger capital gains taxes, Lucas said.

“That’s what makes them so tax efficient,” he said. “For younger investors, you know really what you’re getting and there’s no surprises.” 

When Healy began investing as a teenager, he was mostly driven to do so by his parents, who instilled in him the value of saving and investing his money, Healy said.

“Now I’m living on my own, and I have my own personal finances to worry about,” he said.

Gen Z investors who are starting out need to keep in mind two elements, according to experts.

1. Research what your exposure could be

There are more than 3,800 U.S.- listed ETFs available in the market now, and a perk to consider is their transparency, said Hennessy. 

“The vast majority of ETFs are disclosing their holdings,” or what’s held in their portfolio, she said. 

To find out what sectors, companies, industries or risks you may be exposed to, look up the information on the ETF issuer’s website, Hennessy said.

For example, say a fund’s name includes the term “international.” You may want to know what countries or classifications the fund focuses on. 

“You have the ability to really drill down and look at the exact holdings in the fund,” Hennessy said.

2. Take note of ‘wash sale rules’

Be mindful about so-called “wash sale rules,” Lucas said. 

The IRS guidelines essentially blocks you from writing off a loss if you repurchase the same or an identical security within a 30-day window before or after the sale, he explained. 

If you sell an ETF at a loss, and you buy it back or a similar one within that time period, you cannot get the benefit of the tax loss. 

It can be easier to get around wash sale rules with an ETF compared to mutual funds, but you need to be careful how you handle it, experts say.

“That loss that you would of taken just gets added to your cost basis to potentially take later,” Lucas said.

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How Trump’s win could change your health care

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U.S. President-elect Donald Trump arrives on November 13, 2024 at Joint Base Andrews, Maryland. 

Andrew Harnik | Getty Images

President-elect Donald Trump‘s return to the White House is poised to have big impacts on consumer health care.

Republicans may face few legislative roadblocks with their goals of reshaping health insurance in the U.S., experts said, after the party retained its slim majority in the House of Representatives and flipped the Senate, giving it control of both Congress and the presidency.

Households that get health insurance from Medicaid or an Affordable Care Act marketplace plan may see some of the biggest disruptions, due to reforms sought by Trump and Republican lawmakers, according to health policy experts.

Such reforms would free up federal funds that could be used to help pay for other Republican policy priorities like tax cuts, they said.

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Just under 8% of the U.S. population is uninsured right now — the lowest rate in American history, said Michael Sparer, a professor at Columbia University and chair of its Department of Health Policy and Management. That figure was 17% when the Affordable Care Act was enacted over a decade ago, he said.

“That rate will start going up again,” Sparer said.

Trump announced on Nov. 14 that he wants to tap Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to run the Department of Health and Human Services, which includes the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. CMS, in turn, administers the Affordable Care Act marketplace and the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP), among other endeavors.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. speaks with Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump at a Turning Point Action Rally in Duluth, GA on Wednesday, Oct. 23, 2024. 

The Washington Post | The Washington Post | Getty Images

Kennedy, a vaccine skeptic who’s been accused of spreading conspiracy theories, has vowed to make big changes to the U.S. health care system.

A spokesperson for Trump’s transition team did not respond to a request from CNBC for comment about the President-elect’s health policy plans.

Here’s how health care could change for consumers during the incoming Trump administration, according to experts.

Affordable Care Act marketplace

A lab technician cares for a patient at Providence St. Mary Medical Center on March 11, 2022 in Apple Valley, California.

Mario Tama | Getty Images News | Getty Images

‘Betting’ premium subsidies will expire

Based on how the election went, the enhanced subsidies on the Affordable Care Act will likely not be renewed once they expire at the end of 2025, said Cynthia Cox, vice president and director of the ACA program at KFF, a health policy research organization.

“If I was going to place a bet on this, I’d be much more comfortable betting that they are going to expire,” Cox said.

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That government-backed aid, originally passed during the pandemic under the American Rescue Plan in 2021, has significantly lowered the costs of coverage for people buying health insurance plans on the ACA marketplace. Those customers include anyone who doesn’t have access to a workplace plan, such as students, self-employed consumers and unemployed people, among others.

An individual earning $60,000 a year now has a monthly premium of $425, compared to $539 before the enhanced subsidies, according to a rough estimate provided by Cox. Meanwhile, a family of four making about $120,000 currently pays $850 a month instead of $1,649.

Permanently extending the enhanced ACA subsidies could cost around $335 billion over the next 10 years, according to an estimate by the Congressional Budget Office.

“They’re concerned about the cost, and they’re going to be cutting taxes next year likely,” Cox said, of Republicans.

Still, it’s a ‘big’ gamble to forgo health insurance

Around 3.8 million people will lose their health insurance if the subsidies expire, the Congressional Budget Office estimates. Those who maintain their coverage are likely to pay higher premiums.

“The bottom line is uncertainty,” said Sabrina Corlette, co-director of the Center on Health Insurance Reforms at Georgetown University’s McCourt School of Public Policy.

“The good news for marketplace consumers is that the enhanced [subsidies] will be available through 2025, so there should be no immediate changes,” Corlette added.

How medical debt became normal in the U.S.

Even if the subsidies disappear, experts say it’s important to stay enrolled if you can, even if you have to make tradeoffs on coverage to keep the costs within budget.

Enrolling in a plan, even a cheaper plan with a big annual deductible, can provide an important hedge against huge costs from unforeseen medical needs like surgery, said Carolyn McClanahan, a physician and certified financial planner based in Jacksonville, Florida.

“I can’t emphasize how big a gamble it is to go without health insurance,” said McClanahan, founder of Life Planning Partners and a member of the CNBC Financial Advisor Council.

“One heart attack easily costs $100,000” out of pocket for someone without insurance, she said. “Do you have that to pay?”

Medicaid

A ‘pretty big target’ for lawmakers

Medicaid is the third-largest program in the federal budget, accounting for $616 billion of spending in 2023, according to the Congressional Budget Office. Trump campaigned on a promise not to make cuts to the two largest programs: Social Security and Medicare.

That makes Medicaid the “obvious place” for Republicans to raise revenue to finance their agenda, said Larry Levitt, executive vice president for health policy at KFF.

“Medicaid will have a pretty big target on its back,” Levitt said.

The bottom line is uncertainty.

Sabrina Corlette

co-director of the Center on Health Insurance Reforms at Georgetown University’s McCourt School of Public Policy

Cuts would “inevitably mean” fewer households would get benefits, Levitt said. Medicaid recipients tend to be lower-income households, people with disabilities and seniors in nursing homes, he said.

Medicaid cuts were a big part of the push among Trump and other Republican lawmakers to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act (also known as Obamacare) in 2017, Levitt said.

Those efforts were ultimately unsuccessful.

How Medicaid might be curtailed

Maskot | Maskot | Getty Images

The new Medicaid cuts may take many forms, according to experts, who cite past proposals and remarks from the Trump administration, Republican lawmakers and the Project 2025 conservative policy blueprint.

For example, the Trump administration may try to add work requirements for Medicaid recipients, as it did during his first term, said Sparer of Columbia University.

Additionally, Republicans may try to cap federal Medicaid spending allocated to states, experts said.

The federal government matches a portion — generally 50% or more — of states’ Medicaid spending. That dollar sum is uncapped.

Republicans may try to covert Medicaid to a block grant, whereby a fixed amount of money is provided annually to each state, or institute a per-capita cap, whereby benefits are limited for each Medicaid enrollee, Levitt said.

Lawmakers may also try to roll back the Medicaid expansion under the Affordable Care Act, which broadened the pool of people who qualify for coverage, experts said.

They could do this by cutting federal financing to the 40 states (plus the District of Columbia) that have expanded Medicaid eligibility. That would shift “an enormous financial risk to states, and many states as a result would drop the Medicaid expansion,” Levitt said.

Short-term health insurance plans

The U.S. Capitol building in Washington, D.C., Oct. 4, 2023.

Yasin Ozturk | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images

“The previous Trump administration and many in the GOP have called for expanding the marketing and sale of short-term plans and other insurance products that do not have to satisfy the ACA’s pre-existing condition standards and other consumer protections,” said Georgetown University’s Corlette.

She said that consumers can be attracted to the plans for their low costs, but often learn too late how thin the coverage is.

Drug prices

CMS Administrator on Medicare price negotiations: People will see benefits starting next year

It’s unclear if lawmakers would keep the drug policies intact, experts said. Trump signed executive orders in 2020 aimed at lowering costs for prescription medications, for example.

“It’s not at all clear Trump will be a friend of the pharma industry,” Sparer said.

For example, the Inflation Reduction Act gave the federal government — for the first time — the authority to negotiate prices with pharmaceutical companies over some drugs covered by Medicare.

That provision is slated to kick in for 10 drugs — some of Medicare’s “most costly and most used” medications, treating a variety of ailments like heart disease, diabetes, arthritis and cancer — in 2026, according to the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.

The measure will save patients $1.5 billion in out-of-pocket costs in 2026, CMS estimates. The federal government would expand the list of medications in ensuing years.

The Inflation Reduction Act also capped Medicare co-pays for insulin at $35 a month. They were previously uncapped. The average Medicare Part D insulin user had paid $54 out-of-pocket a month per insulin prescription in 2020, according to KFF.

The law also capped out-of-pocket costs at $2,000 a year for prescription drugs covered by Medicare, starting in 2025. There was previously no cap.

About 1.4 million Medicare Part D enrollees paid more than $2,000 out-of-pocket for medications in 2020, KFF found. Those costs averaged $3,355 a person.

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How remote work can help you travel this holiday season

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Americans are determined to travel this holiday season — and certain workarounds are helping them take those trips. 

The ability to work remotely is a major leg up when planning out itineraries.

About 49% of employed travelers are “laptop luggers” — those who plan to work at some point on their holiday vacation — up from 34% last year, according to the Deloitte holiday travel survey.

This flexibility allows workers to take trips they might not otherwise, or stretch their trips for longer, according to the survey.

While there are more laptop luggers across most age groups and income levels, Gen Zers, which Deloitte defines as those born between 1997 and 2012, and high earners make up the highest shares, at 58% and 52%, respectively, according to the survey.

Deloitte polled 4,074 American adults in September. Of that group, 2,005 were identified as holiday travelers.

The change in laptop luggers is “a pretty high jump. It’s almost across all income levels and age groups,” said Eileen Crowley, vice chair and U.S. transportation, hospitality and services attest leader at Deloitte. 

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Since the pandemic, remote work has become a priority for job seekers, said Julia Pollak, chief economist at ZipRecruiter.

In the third quarter, 51% of surveyed job seekers said the ability to work from wherever they want is a top reason for remote jobs, up from 40.8% in the first quarter of 2022, according to ZipRecruiter data.

“The value to U.S. workers of being able to work from anywhere has clearly grown over the course of the great remote work experiment,” she said.

In addition to working during their trip, travelers are coming up with other workarounds such as driving instead of flying or cutting back on other expenses, experts said.

“People are willing to cut corners to save money, but they don’t want to skip the trip entirely,” said Ted Rossman, an industry analyst at Bankrate.

Who’s spending on holiday travel this year 

Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

“Higher-income consumers are not nearly as price sensitive,” Stacy Francis, president and CEO of Francis Financial, a wealth management, financial planning and divorce financial planning firm in New York City, recently told CNBC.

“They’re not nearly as budget conscious as people in lower-wage-earning brackets,” said Francis, a member of CNBC’s Financial Advisor Council.

Among generational groups, millennials, or those born between 1980 and 1996, have the highest budgets and longest travel planned. According to the report, millennials plan to take about 2.6 trips over the course of the holiday season and spend on average $3,927, per the Deloitte survey.

What’s making holiday travel possible this year

More than 4 in 5 holiday travelers, 83%, are finding ways to save money this holiday season, such as driving instead of flying, according to Bankrate.

“Most of these people are still traveling, they’re just doing so differently to cut some costs,” Rossman said.

Separately, about 50% of respondents are cutting back on other expenses and 49% are picking up discounts and deals, according to the 2024 Holiday Travel Outlook by Hopper, a travel site. 

Among other strategies, 22% plan to travel on off-peak days and 21% are using credit card points or miles to cover some of the cost, the Hopper report found.

If you do plan to pull out your laptop and work during a holiday vacation, make sure to review your company’s rules around remote work, said Pollak. Some companies require employees to work from their home, from within the company’s home state or within the U.S. unless otherwise authorized.

“You risk getting your access shut off, being punished or even having your employment terminated if you try to work from elsewhere,” Pollak said.

Touch base with your manager or director about the idea as well, she said: “Some managers just care that you’re getting the job done and aren’t concerned how.”

Finally, you want to make sure the location you plan to work from has a strong electric grid or service and Wi-Fi is reliable.

“If you’re on the hook for work, make sure you are somewhere where you can get it done,” Pollak said.

Spending on experiences such as travel and concerts spiked after pandemic-era lockdowns and restrictions because of pent-up demand from Americans, experts say.

Yet even after several years, travel “seems to be something that’s sticking,” said Deloitte’s Crowley: “People are placing value and making room in their budgets for travel.”

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