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Harris has a plan to raise homeownership. Builder stocks rejoice

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Homebuilding stocks are on a tear with the Federal Reserve expected to start cutting interest rates in a matter of weeks. And the group is catching an additional tailwind from Vice President Kamala Harris’ plans to support the U.S. housing market if she wins the presidential election in November.

Since the start of the third quarter, homebuilders are the fifth-best performing group out of 158 in the S&P 1500 Composite index, rising 20% to trade near an all-time high. Meanwhile, DR Horton Inc. is the third best performing stock in the S&P 500 Index over that time after soaring 31% in two months, while rival Lennar Corp. is 45th with a 19% gain. For the year, homebuilder shares are up 21% compared with a 16% rise in the S&P 500.

Mortgage rates are already coming down — Freddie Mac data shows 30-year fixed-rate mortgages at 6.35% as of Aug. 29 compared with 6.95% as of July 4. So there are solid reasons to believe the momentum can continue for homebuilding stocks with the Fed expected to enter a significant rate-cutting cycle. 

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Homes under construction at a housing development in Rancho Cordova, California.

David Paul Morris/Bloomberg

But the housing industry’s most important, and uncertain, variable may be the November presidential election. 

Democratic nominee Kamala Harris is proposing to juice the residential real estate market with as much as $25,000 in down-payment assistance for some first-time homebuyers, a program to encourage construction of three million new housing units, and incentives to build more starter homes. The policies, which go further than what President Joe Biden was proposing, would prod local governments to reduce obstacles to construction, bringing down development costs. And they would discourage large scale investors from buying single-family rentals.

Since details of Harris’ plan started to trickle out after the market closed on Aug. 15, the homebuilders index has climbed 4.5% while the S&P 500 is down slightly.

Election risk

“Most of these provisions have carve-outs to promote the development of new housing supply, as well as protecting existing renters by maintaining tax benefits on homes already owned by large single-family rental operators,” Buck Horne, Raymond James Financial Inc. housing analyst, wrote in an Aug. 16 note.

Of course these plans face plenty of risks, not least of all being Harris winning an election that appears to be a tossup and getting a favorable Congress as well. These aren’t programs that can be set through executive orders, so support from the Senate and House of Representatives will be needed.

The Harris campaign offered no further comment beyond what the candidate said when she announced her plan at an Aug. 16 rally in Raleigh, NC.

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has also identified homeownership as a key issue, and the GOP platform proposes a mixture of tax incentives and regulatory changes to stimulate the housing market. Karoline Leavitt, a spokeswoman for Trump’s campaign, referred inquiries to a statement she made to Bloomberg News last week that said the former president “has a real plan to make purchasing a home dramatically more affordable,” including by slowing federal spending and “eliminating” some regulations.

Focusing on regulation makes sense, as the National Association of Home Builders estimates federal regulations account for nearly 25% of the building costs for a single-family home. Key companies that build homes for first-time buyers include DR Horton, Lennar and KB Home, according to Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Drew Reading.

“Strength at the low end is important for housing as it spurs activity at higher price points as well,” Reading said.

However, some strategists warn of the unintended consequences from policies that quickly boost demand in a supply constrained market.

“More bidders means higher prices,” wrote TD Cowen analyst Jaret Seiberg in an Aug. 19 note. “Our view is that such programs also produce little benefit despite costing a lot of money.”

Priced in

As for the stocks, much of the anticipated benefits from efforts to boost the housing market are already priced in, according to Ryan Grabinski, an investment strategist at Strategas Securities. Homebuilders like KB Home and Toll Brothers Inc. are trading above their 50-day moving averages, a key technical level, and are expensive relative to their 10-year average price-to-tangible-book-values. 

“A next leg higher in the housing market would likely need to come from an improvement in the labor markets,” Grabinski said.

What’s more, the underlying housing environment is far from enticing for Americans looking to move. Borrowing costs remain at multiyear highs and the resale inventory is limited because homeowners are reluctant to sell when their mortgages are fixed at dramatically lower rates. So it’s hard to find a home, much less one that’s affordable.

New construction helps, but sticker shock is still real. And even with the Fed expected to start cutting its benchmark interest rate at the meeting culminating on Sept. 18, some economists suspect it will take much deeper interest-rate cuts to nudge reluctant buyers and sellers off the sidelines. 

“It’d be good judgment to hold off and get a clear sense of where things are going, both in terms of interest rates, but also the outcome of the election and what policy is likely to follow,” said Dean Baker, senior economist at the Center for Economic and Policy Research. 

Nonetheless, as mortgage rates drift lower and homebuyers accumulate the resources to buy a house, home-building activity should revive. And Harris’ rapid ascent in the polls could have housing investors looking at an encouraging setup for stock prices over the longer-term.

“I expect we’ll see declining short-term and then long-term rates, and the 30-year mortgage very likely coming down around 6% or below by the end of the year,” Baker said. “That’s an environment in which I think it’s very likely you will get some pro-construction legislation.”

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Trump backs $4.5 trillion tax cut in House GOP budget plan

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President Donald Trump backed a House budget plan calling for a $4.5 trillion tax cut, slapping back Senate Republicans’ efforts to rush through funds to help bolster his immigration crackdown in favor of a larger bill that will likely take months to negotiate.

Trump intervened in the ongoing budget conflict between House and Senate Republicans with a social media post Wednesday just before a key congressional vote.

The Senate plans to vote this week on a budget that would add $150 billion to military spending and increase immigration and border enforcement by $175 billion. Senate Republicans say they prefer to act on those priorities quickly and wait to resolve contentious disputes over tax cuts and the raising the debt ceiling. 

Trump instead endorsed a more sweeping House budget plan that raises internecine Republican conflicts over how much to cut federal spending and how large a tax cut should be.

“We need both Chambers to pass the House Budget to ‘kickstart’ the Reconciliation process, and move all of our priorities to the concept of, “ONE BIG BEAUTIFUL BILL,” he said.

Trump’s statement complicates Senate Republicans’ efforts to muster support for a planned budget vote this week.

Senate Republican leader John Thune said the president’s late intervention took him by surprise but he planned to proceed with the scheduled budget vote.

“I did not see that one coming,” Thune said of Trump’s statement. 

Trump’s public declaration could help Speaker Mike Johnson gather the votes he needs to pass the budget. Some fiscal conservatives are holding out for deeper spending cuts while some GOP moderates in the House are already expressing reservations about the size of the cuts likely to be directed to Medicaid. 

“House Republicans are working to deliver President Trump’s FULL agenda – not just a small part of it,” Johnson said on X in response to Trump’s comments.

The House is on a one-week break for the President’s Day holiday and Republican leaders are struggling to come up with enough votes for the budget plan because of the party’s narrow majority in the House. The House is planning to hold its budget votes next week, according to a person familiar with the plan.

Adopting the budget is the first step in a special process Republicans intend to use to bypass minority Senate Democrats on tax and spending legislation. A budget plan would allow Republicans to overcome procedural obstacles in the Senate with a simple majority rather than the 60 votes it would otherwise take. 

The House has drafted a plan to allow $4.5 trillion in tax cuts in exchange for $2 trillion in spending cuts and a $4 trillion increase in the debt ceiling. The House plan would direct $300 billion to military and border spending but the larger bill is expected to take months to hash out.

The House plans to extend individual and business tax breaks enacted in 2017 that are set to expire at the end of this year. It is also looking to increase the $10,000 limit on the state and local tax deduction, and end taxes on tips and Social Security benefits as called for by President Trump. But the cost of doing all those items for a full decade exceeds $4.5 trillion so lawmakers would either need to find deeper spending cuts or have them expire sooner.

That plan was approved in committee ahead of possible floor votes later this month. House leaders say their tiny majority means it is much easier to pass one bill rather than breaking it into pieces.

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Accountants see bigger hiring and pay boosts

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Hiring and salaries grew more quickly for accountants than any other job group last year, according to a new report.

The report, released Thursday by Deel, a global HR and payroll company, found that hiring (74%) and salaries (15%) grew faster for accountants than any other job group in 2024. 

The shortage of accounting talent and the financial complexity of managing a global workforce resulted in accountants seeing bigger salary gains than software engineers last year. 

The report aggregates data from Deel’s more than 1 million contracts and over 35,000 customers across more than 150 countries.

“For most of the past decade, companies couldn’t hire software engineers fast enough,” said the report. “The fierce competition drove up their salaries. While software engineers are still the most-hired occupation for Deel clients, accounting is becoming the new must-have skill for global organizations. Declining interest in the profession from early-career workers and the increasingly complex tax requirements of a global workforce have made accountants a precious, and increasingly pricy, commodity.”

The United States, Australia and Great Britain were the most likely countries to hire accountants abroad. Accountants are most likely to be hired in the Philippines, the United States and Argentina. Mexico and Singapore follow closely. Deel saw a 17% increase in salary over the year for cross-border workers, and 9% increase for domestic workers.

The report also found that while organizations are still hiring globally, there has been an uptick in the number of employers who are favoring candidates closer to home. Companies are especially focused on keeping younger workers happy, with Gen Z receiving bigger raises in 2024 than other generations. 

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Beyond bitcoin: Advising clients on digital asset diversification

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When it comes to the digital asset world, one thing is certain: There’s never a dull moment! Take, for instance, President Trump’s announcement to implement high tariffs on goods from Canada, China and Mexico. This sent shockwaves through the digital asset market, causing bitcoin to fall below $100,000. Although the value eventually rebounded, chances are we’ll continue to see extreme price fluctuations.

As the digital asset landscape becomes increasingly unpredictable, it’s important to encourage clients to diversify their holdings across sectors and digital asset types. Not only will this help with tax planning, but it will also propel you into a more advisory role. Here are four strategies you can recommend to clients to diversify their digital asset portfolio:

Purchase different coin and token types

Perhaps the easiest way clients can diversify their digital asset portfolio is to acquire different types of coins and tokens. Advise clients to start with well-established cryptocurrencies, such as bitcoin and ether. Because these cryptocurrencies have a large market cap, they’re typically considered lower-risk investments.

After that, encourage clients to consider altcoins. These are cryptocurrencies that aren’t bitcoin. Although altcoins are riskier, they have the potential to quickly appreciate in value. But be careful — their values can suddenly plummet as well. As a rule of thumb, when investing in lesser-known altcoins, clients should only put in what they’re willing to lose.

There are other types of coins and tokens that may help with diversification, including the following:

  • Stablecoins, which are cryptocurrencies whose value is tied to another asset. USD coin is a popular stablecoin that’s pegged to the U.S. dollar.
  • Security tokens, which are tokens that represent ownership or participation in a real-world asset (like stocks, bonds or real estate).
  • Nonfungible tokens, or NFTs, which are tokens that represent ownership of a unique digital item, such as art, music, animated GIFs, articles and social media posts.

Many clients will be unfamiliar with these items, so taking the time to explain the benefits and potential risks of each investment will solidify client relationships and elevate your advisory practice.

Invest in a crypto exchange-traded product

A crypto ETP is the digital asset world’s version of a mutual fund. It’s essentially a way to invest in cryptocurrency without purchasing the coins directly. Like other ETPs, crypto ETPs are securities that track the value of underlying assets. However, in this case, the underlying assets are cryptocurrencies, such as bitcoin and ether.

To help get clients started, you can recommend a reputable broker. Most major online brokers offer crypto ETPs; however, ETP types and fees will vary. Also, it’s important to educate clients on the risks of investing in a crypto ETP. One potential drawback is trading can only occur during regular market hours, meaning your client may miss out if cryptocurrency values significantly change during the weekend (which, as we’ve seen, is highly likely). This wouldn’t happen if your client purchased cryptocurrency directly since online exchanges are always open (unless briefly shut down for maintenance).

Try a crypto-related exchange-traded fund

Clients who go down this route have two options to consider: a stock-based ETF and a futures-based ETF. In a stock-based ETF, the client holds a collection of crypto-related stocks. These are the stocks of corporations that operate in the digital asset space, such as Coinbase Global, Inc. If your client decides to invest in a futures-based ETF, they will be exposed to the price movements of cryptocurrency futures contracts, which are agreements to exchange the fiat-equivalent value of a digital asset (or the asset itself) on a future date.

As with ETPs, ETFs won’t give your clients direct ownership of cryptocurrencies — they will simply own units within the funds. This could be a problem if a particular cryptocurrency or company increases in value, but that growth isn’t fully reflected in the ETF. However, crypto-related ETFs are still a great way to diversify a digital asset portfolio.

Hold digital assets in a self-directed IRA

As a tax and accounting professional, you’re probably familiar with self-directed IRAs that hold real estate, precious metals, foreign currencies, commodities or hedge funds. But did you know they can also be used to hold digital assets? There are crypto IRA platforms out there that can help with the administrative burdens typically associated with self-directed IRAs.

Advising clients to establish a self-directed IRA can be a smart move; however, setting one up that invests in cryptocurrency is often complex. In many cases, you will need to direct the client to create an LLC that’s solely owned by the IRA. After that, a checking account should be opened in the LLC’s name. The LLC will also need to acquire a digital wallet. After the IRA is funded, the plan should be directed to transfer the funds to the LLC’s checking account to purchase cryptocurrency through the digital wallet. This isn’t always needed, however, as some account managers allow the IRA to invest directly in cryptocurrency without the need for an LLC. You can help your client find a cryptocurrency exchange that allows IRAs to open accounts.

Don’t forget the tax implications

In addition to advising clients on digital asset diversification, you’ll need to ensure clients fully understand how their investments are taxed. The guiding principle behind digital asset taxation is digital assets are treated as property for federal income tax purposes. This means that every time a digital asset is sold or exchanged for goods or services, gain or loss will be recognized (subject to limitations under the Internal Revenue Code, if applicable). Some clients have the misconception that cryptocurrency is treated just like cash for tax purposes. You can clear that up and, with proper tax planning, help clients efficiently manage their digital asset transactions.

Be strategic

Navigating the ever-evolving digital asset landscape requires a strategic approach to diversification. With your guidance, clients will be able to make informed decisions, mitigate risks and seize opportunities in a dynamic market.

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