Homebuilding stocks are on a tear with the Federal Reserve expected to start cutting interest rates in a matter of weeks. And the group is catching an additional tailwind from Vice President Kamala Harris’ plans to support the U.S. housing market if she wins the presidential election in November.
Since the start of the third quarter, homebuilders are the fifth-best performing group out of 158 in the S&P 1500 Composite index, rising 20% to trade near an all-time high. Meanwhile, DR Horton Inc. is the third best performing stock in the S&P 500 Index over that time after soaring 31% in two months, while rival Lennar Corp. is 45th with a 19% gain. For the year, homebuilder shares are up 21% compared with a 16% rise in the S&P 500.
Mortgage rates are already coming down — Freddie Mac data shows 30-year fixed-rate mortgages at 6.35% as of Aug. 29 compared with 6.95% as of July 4. So there are solid reasons to believe the momentum can continue for homebuilding stocks with the Fed expected to enter a significant rate-cutting cycle.
Homes under construction at a housing development in Rancho Cordova, California.
David Paul Morris/Bloomberg
But the housing industry’s most important, and uncertain, variable may be the November presidential election.
Democratic nominee Kamala Harris is proposing to juice the residential real estate market with as much as $25,000 in down-payment assistance for some first-time homebuyers, a program to encourage construction of three million new housing units, and incentives to build more starter homes. The policies, which go further than what President Joe Biden was proposing, would prod local governments to reduce obstacles to construction, bringing down development costs. And they would discourage large scale investors from buying single-family rentals.
Since details of Harris’ plan started to trickle out after the market closed on Aug. 15, the homebuilders index has climbed 4.5% while the S&P 500 is down slightly.
Election risk
“Most of these provisions have carve-outs to promote the development of new housing supply, as well as protecting existing renters by maintaining tax benefits on homes already owned by large single-family rental operators,” Buck Horne, Raymond James Financial Inc. housing analyst, wrote in an Aug. 16 note.
Of course these plans face plenty of risks, not least of all being Harris winning an election that appears to be a tossup and getting a favorable Congress as well. These aren’t programs that can be set through executive orders, so support from the Senate and House of Representatives will be needed.
The Harris campaign offered no further comment beyond what the candidate said when she announced her plan at an Aug. 16 rally in Raleigh, NC.
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has also identified homeownership as a key issue, and the GOP platform proposes a mixture of tax incentives and regulatory changes to stimulate the housing market. Karoline Leavitt, a spokeswoman for Trump’s campaign, referred inquiries to a statement she made to Bloomberg News last week that said the former president “has a real plan to make purchasing a home dramatically more affordable,” including by slowing federal spending and “eliminating” some regulations.
Focusing on regulation makes sense, as the National Association of Home Builders estimates federal regulations account for nearly 25% of the building costs for a single-family home. Key companies that build homes for first-time buyers include DR Horton, Lennar and KB Home, according to Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Drew Reading.
“Strength at the low end is important for housing as it spurs activity at higher price points as well,” Reading said.
However, some strategists warn of the unintended consequences from policies that quickly boost demand in a supply constrained market.
“More bidders means higher prices,” wrote TD Cowen analyst Jaret Seiberg in an Aug. 19 note. “Our view is that such programs also produce little benefit despite costing a lot of money.”
Priced in
As for the stocks, much of the anticipated benefits from efforts to boost the housing market are already priced in, according to Ryan Grabinski, an investment strategist at Strategas Securities. Homebuilders like KB Home and Toll Brothers Inc. are trading above their 50-day moving averages, a key technical level, and are expensive relative to their 10-year average price-to-tangible-book-values.
“A next leg higher in the housing market would likely need to come from an improvement in the labor markets,” Grabinski said.
What’s more, the underlying housing environment is far from enticing for Americans looking to move. Borrowing costs remain at multiyear highs and the resale inventory is limited because homeowners are reluctant to sell when their mortgages are fixed at dramatically lower rates. So it’s hard to find a home, much less one that’s affordable.
New construction helps, but sticker shock is still real. And even with the Fed expected to start cutting its benchmark interest rate at the meeting culminating on Sept. 18, some economists suspect it will take much deeper interest-rate cuts to nudge reluctant buyers and sellers off the sidelines.
“It’d be good judgment to hold off and get a clear sense of where things are going, both in terms of interest rates, but also the outcome of the election and what policy is likely to follow,” said Dean Baker, senior economist at the Center for Economic and Policy Research.
Nonetheless, as mortgage rates drift lower and homebuyers accumulate the resources to buy a house, home-building activity should revive. And Harris’ rapid ascent in the polls could have housing investors looking at an encouraging setup for stock prices over the longer-term.
“I expect we’ll see declining short-term and then long-term rates, and the 30-year mortgage very likely coming down around 6% or below by the end of the year,” Baker said. “That’s an environment in which I think it’s very likely you will get some pro-construction legislation.”
Valuations this year; handling interviewees; AI and accounting ed.;and other highlights from our favorite tax bloggers.
Higher questions
Haunting of the Hill House
Eide Bailly (https://www.eidebailly.com/taxblog): The House Ways and Means Committee planned to begin to publicly debate and amend tax legislation on May 13, with the ultimate goal to produce the “one big, beautiful” bill to extend the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act: “This is the stage where seemingly dead and buried ideas mysteriously come back to life to haunt the proceedings.”
Tax Vox (https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/taxvox): If Congress expands the Child Tax Credit with TCJA extension, who might benefit and what might it cost?
Tax Foundation (www.taxfoundation.org/blog): Policymakers will also decide the fate of the SALT cap. Debate rages about making the cap more generous, along with possible limits on pass-through workarounds and SALT deductions by corporations. While capping business SALT could raise additional revenue, it would risk slowing economic growth.
Soft skills
Rational decisions
Tidying up
Boyum & Barenscheer (https://www.myboyum.com/blog/): Should you vacuum the meeting room? How many times should you talk with a candidate? Keys — some often overlooked — to effective interviewing.
The National Association of Tax Professionals (https://blog.natptax.com/): A WISP is the written information security plan that verifies how your firm protects taxpayer information. You can’t ignore them anymore, and here’s how to build a compliant one.
The House Ways and Means Committee held a hearing Tuesday to mark up the so-called “one, big beautiful bill” extending the expiring provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act while adding other tax breaks for tip income, overtime pay and Social Security income and eliminating tax credits from the Inflation Reduction Act for renewable energy as well as the Direct File and Free File programs.
“Today, this Committee will move forward on President Trump’s promise of delivering historic tax relief to working families, farmers and small businesses,” said committee chair Jason Smith, R-Missouri, in his opening statement. “The One Big Beautiful Bill is the key to making America great again. This moment has been years in the making. While Democrats were defending IRS audits on the middle class and tax carveouts for the wealthy, Republicans on this Committee got on the road, to hear from real Americans about how the 2017 tax cuts benefited them. This bill wasn’t drafted by special interests or K Street lobbyists. It was drafted by the American people in communities across the country.”
Democrats blasted the bill. “In 2017, Republicans passed a tax law that was supposed to pay for itself, raise wages, and help working families,” said ranking member Richard Neal, D-Massachusetts. “None of that happened. Instead, it exploded the deficit, worsened inequality, and left everyday Americans behind. Now they want to double down on the same failed playbook. One that rigs the system for billionaires and big corporations while everyone else pays the price.”
Among the provisions, the bill would make the expiring rate and bracket changes of the TCJA permanent and increase the inflation adjustment for all brackets excluding the 37% threshold, according to a summary from the Tax Foundation. The bill would also make the expiring standard deduction levels permanent and temporarily increase the standard deduction by $2,000 for joint filers, $1,500 for head of household filers and $1,000 for all other filers from 2025 through the end of 2028. It would also make the personal exemption elimination permanent, and make the $750,000 limitation and the exclusion of interest on home equity loans for the home mortgage interest deduction permanent. It would also make the state and local tax deduction cap, also known as the SALT cap, permanent at a higher threshold of $30,000, phasing down to $10,000 at a rate of 20% starting at modified adjusted gross income of $200,000 for single filers and $400,000 for joint filers.
Other changes and limitations to itemized deductions would be made permanent, including the limitation on personal casualty losses and wagering losses and termination of miscellaneous itemized deductions, Pease limitation on itemized deductions, and certain moving expenses.
The bill is likely to go through some changes when it goes to the Senate. “Politically, we’ve been talking about the process for the last couple months,” said Mark Baran, managing director at CBIZ’s national tax office. “Congress is finally able to pass a concurrent resolution to unlock the budget reconciliation process.”
“The House and the Senate have completely different instructions on what they’re going to cut and how they’re going to score,” he added. “Some of that’s very controversial, and that needs to be worked out. But now we’re getting into the actual crafting of provisions and legislation.”
According to a summary on the CBIZ site, the bill would make permanent and increase the Section 199A pass-through entity deduction from 20% to 23%, also known as the qualified business income, or QBI, deduction. The bill includes provisions that open the door for pass-through entity owners in specified service industries to use the deduction. It would also extend current deductions for research and experimental expenses through Dec. 31, 2029, and extend 100% bonus depreciation through that same date.
The bill would also allow businesses to include amortization and depreciation when figuring the business interest limitation through Dec. 31, 2029, while making permanent the excess business loss limitation.
In addition, the bill would retroactively terminate the Employee Retention Tax Credit for taxpayers who filed refund claims after Jan. 31, 2024.
In keeping with Trump campaign promises, the bill would eliminate taxes on tips for employees in certain defined industries where tipping has been a traditional form of compensation. There would be a new $4,000 deduction for seniors that phases out starting at $75,000 of income. The bill would also eliminate taxes on overtime pay.
The bill would give individuals an above-the-line deduction for interest on loans used to purchase American-made cars, but that would be capped at $10,000 with income phaseouts starting at $100,000 (single) and $200,000 (married filing jointly).
The bill would also increase taxes on certain private college investment income up to a maximum of 21% on universities with a student-adjusted endowment above $2 million.
It would also roll back some of the renewable energy provisions from the Inflation Reduction, including a phaseout and restrictions on clean energy facilities starting in 2029, while also limiting or eliminating clean housing energy and vehicle credits. The bill would sunset major IRA clean electricity tax credits, including the clean electricity production tax credit (45Y), clean electricity investment tax credit (48E), and nuclear electricity production tax credit (45U) begin phasing out after 2028 and finish phasing out by the end of 2031; repeal hydrogen production credit (45V) for facilities beginning construction after 2025, according to the Tax Foundation. It would also phase out advanced manufacturing production credit (45X) for wind energy components after 2027, for all other eligible components after 2031. Across several IRA clean energy credits, the bill would repeal transferability after the end of 2027 and further limit credits based on involvement of foreign entities of concern. On the other hand, it would expand the clean fuel production credit (45K), and tighten rules on the 126(m) limitation for executive compensation.
The bill would terminate the current Direct File program at the Internal Revenue Service and establish a public-private partnership between the IRS and private sector tax preparation services to offer free tax filing, replacing both the existing Direct File and Free File programs.
The Federal Accounting Standards Advisory Board is asking for input on emerging accounting issues and questions related to reporting entity reorganizations and abolishments as the federal government endures wide-ranging layoffs and reductions in force, including the elimination of entire agencies by the Elon Musk-led Department of Government Efficiency.
“Federal agencies and their functions, from time to time, have been reorganized and abolished,” said FASAB in its request for information and comment.
Reorganization refers to a transfer, consolidation, coordination, authorization or abolition of one (or more) agency or agencies or a part of their functions. Abolition is a type of reorganization and refers to the whole or part of an agency that does not have, upon the effective date of the reorganization, any functions.
The Trump administration has recently moved to all but eliminate parts of the federal government such as the U.S. Agency for International Development and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, and earlier this month, Republicans on the House Financial Services Committee passed a bill that would transfer the responsibilities of the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board to the Securities and Exchange Commission.
FASAB issues federal financial accounting standards and provides timely guidance. Practitioner responses to the request for information will support its efforts to identify, research and respond to emerging accounting and reporting issues related to reorganization and abolishment activities, such as transfers of assets and liabilities among federal reporting entities. The input will be used to help inform any potential staff recommendations and alternatives for FASAB to consider regarding short- and long-term actions and updates to federal accounting standards and guidance in this area.
The questions include:
Have any recent or ongoing reorganization activities or events affected the scope of functions, assets, liabilities, net position, revenues, and expenses assigned to your reporting entity (or, for auditors, your auditees)? If so, please describe.
What accounting issues have you (or your auditees) encountered (or do you anticipate) in connection with recent or potential reorganization activities and events?
Please describe the sources of standards and guidance that you (or your auditees) are applying to recent, ongoing, or pending reorganization activities and events.
Have you experienced any difficulties or identified gaps in the accounting and disclosure standards for reorganization activities and events? What potential improvements would you recommend, if any?
FASAB is asking for responses by July 15, 2025, but acknowledged that late or follow-up submissions may be necessary given the provisional nature of the request. Responses should be emailed to [email protected] with “RERA RFI response” on the subject line.