Homebuilding stocks are on a tear with the Federal Reserve expected to start cutting interest rates in a matter of weeks. And the group is catching an additional tailwind from Vice President Kamala Harris’ plans to support the U.S. housing market if she wins the presidential election in November.
Since the start of the third quarter, homebuilders are the fifth-best performing group out of 158 in the S&P 1500 Composite index, rising 20% to trade near an all-time high. Meanwhile, DR Horton Inc. is the third best performing stock in the S&P 500 Index over that time after soaring 31% in two months, while rival Lennar Corp. is 45th with a 19% gain. For the year, homebuilder shares are up 21% compared with a 16% rise in the S&P 500.
Mortgage rates are already coming down — Freddie Mac data shows 30-year fixed-rate mortgages at 6.35% as of Aug. 29 compared with 6.95% as of July 4. So there are solid reasons to believe the momentum can continue for homebuilding stocks with the Fed expected to enter a significant rate-cutting cycle.
But the housing industry’s most important, and uncertain, variable may be the November presidential election.
Democratic nominee Kamala Harris is proposing to juice the residential real estate market with as much as $25,000 in down-payment assistance for some first-time homebuyers, a program to encourage construction of three million new housing units, and incentives to build more starter homes. The policies, which go further than what President Joe Biden was proposing, would prod local governments to reduce obstacles to construction, bringing down development costs. And they would discourage large scale investors from buying single-family rentals.
Since details of Harris’ plan started to trickle out after the market closed on Aug. 15, the homebuilders index has climbed 4.5% while the S&P 500 is down slightly.
Election risk
“Most of these provisions have carve-outs to promote the development of new housing supply, as well as protecting existing renters by maintaining tax benefits on homes already owned by large single-family rental operators,” Buck Horne, Raymond James Financial Inc. housing analyst, wrote in an Aug. 16 note.
Of course these plans face plenty of risks, not least of all being Harris winning an election that appears to be a tossup and getting a favorable Congress as well. These aren’t programs that can be set through executive orders, so support from the Senate and House of Representatives will be needed.
The Harris campaign offered no further comment beyond what the candidate said when she announced her plan at an Aug. 16 rally in Raleigh, NC.
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has also identified homeownership as a key issue, and the GOP platform proposes a mixture of tax incentives and regulatory changes to stimulate the housing market. Karoline Leavitt, a spokeswoman for Trump’s campaign, referred inquiries to a statement she made to Bloomberg News last week that said the former president “has a real plan to make purchasing a home dramatically more affordable,” including by slowing federal spending and “eliminating” some regulations.
Focusing on regulation makes sense, as the National Association of Home Builders estimates federal regulations account for nearly 25% of the building costs for a single-family home. Key companies that build homes for first-time buyers include DR Horton, Lennar and KB Home, according to Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Drew Reading.
“Strength at the low end is important for housing as it spurs activity at higher price points as well,” Reading said.
However, some strategists warn of the unintended consequences from policies that quickly boost demand in a supply constrained market.
“More bidders means higher prices,” wrote TD Cowen analyst Jaret Seiberg in an Aug. 19 note. “Our view is that such programs also produce little benefit despite costing a lot of money.”
Priced in
As for the stocks, much of the anticipated benefits from efforts to boost the housing market are already priced in, according to Ryan Grabinski, an investment strategist at Strategas Securities. Homebuilders like KB Home and Toll Brothers Inc. are trading above their 50-day moving averages, a key technical level, and are expensive relative to their 10-year average price-to-tangible-book-values.
“A next leg higher in the housing market would likely need to come from an improvement in the labor markets,” Grabinski said.
What’s more, the underlying housing environment is far from enticing for Americans looking to move. Borrowing costs remain at multiyear highs and the resale inventory is limited because homeowners are reluctant to sell when their mortgages are fixed at dramatically lower rates. So it’s hard to find a home, much less one that’s affordable.
New construction helps, but sticker shock is still real. And even with the Fed expected to start cutting its benchmark interest rate at the meeting culminating on Sept. 18, some economists suspect it will take much deeper interest-rate cuts to nudge reluctant buyers and sellers off the sidelines.
“It’d be good judgment to hold off and get a clear sense of where things are going, both in terms of interest rates, but also the outcome of the election and what policy is likely to follow,” said Dean Baker, senior economist at the Center for Economic and Policy Research.
Nonetheless, as mortgage rates drift lower and homebuyers accumulate the resources to buy a house, home-building activity should revive. And Harris’ rapid ascent in the polls could have housing investors looking at an encouraging setup for stock prices over the longer-term.
“I expect we’ll see declining short-term and then long-term rates, and the 30-year mortgage very likely coming down around 6% or below by the end of the year,” Baker said. “That’s an environment in which I think it’s very likely you will get some pro-construction legislation.”
The Financial Accounting Standards Board issued a proposed accounting standards update Tuesday to establish authoritative guidance on the accounting for government grants received by business entities.
U.S. GAAP currently doesn’t provide specific authoritative guidance about the recognition, measurement, and presentation of a grant received by a business entity from a government. Instead, many businesses currently apply the International Financial Reporting Standards Foundation’s International Accounting Standard 20, Accounting for Government Grants and Disclosure of Government Assistance, by analogy, at least in part, to account for government grants.
In 2022 FASB issued an Invitation to Comment, Accounting for Government Grants by Business Entities—Potential Incorporation of IAS 20, Accounting for Government Grants and Disclosure of Government Assistance, into GAAP. In response, most of FASB’s stakeholders supported leveraging the guidance in IAS 20 to develop accounting guidance for government grants in GAAP, believing it would reduce diversity in practice because entities would apply the guidance instead of analogizing to it or other guidance, thus narrowing the variability in accounting for government grants.
The proposed ASU would leverage the guidance in IAS 20 with targeted improvements to establish guidance on how to recognize, measure, and present a government grant including (1) a grant related to an asset and (2) a grant related to income. It also would require, consistent with current disclosure requirements, disclosure about the nature of the government grant received, the accounting policies used to account for the grant, and significant terms and conditions of the grant, among others.
FASB is asking for comments on the proposed ASU by March 31, 2025.
“It will not be a cut and paste of IAS 20,” said FASB technical director Jackson Day during a session at Financial Executives International’s Current Financial Reporting Insights conference last week. “First of all, the scope is going to be a little bit different, probably a little bit more narrow. Second of all, the threshold of recognizing a government grant will be based on ‘probable,’ and ‘probable’ as we think of it in U.S. GAAP terms. We’re also going to do some work to make clarifications, etc. There is a little bit different thinking around the government grants for assets. There will be a deferred income approach or a cost accumulation approach that you can pick. And finally, there will be different disclosures because the disclosures will be based on what the board had previously issued, but it does leverage IAS 20. A few other things it does as far as reducing diversity. Most people analogized IAS 20. That was our anecdotal findings. But what does that mean? How exactly do they do that? This will set forth the specifics. It will also eliminate from the population those that were analogizing to ASC 450 or 958, because there were a few of those too. So it will go a long way in reducing diversity. It will also head down a model that will be generally internationally converged, which we still think about. We still collaborate with the staff [of the International Accounting Standards Board]. We don’t have any joint projects, but we still do our best when it makes sense to align on projects.”
Mauled Again (http://mauledagain.blogspot.com/): Not long ago, about a dozen states would seize property for failure to pay property taxes and, instead of simply taking their share of unpaid taxes, interest, and penalties and returning the excess to the property owner, they would pocket the entire proceeds of the sales. Did high court intervention stem this practice? Not so much.
Current Federal Tax Developments (https://www.currentfederaltaxdevelopments.com/): In Surk LLC v. Commissioner, the Tax Court was presented with the question of basis computations related to an interest in a partnership. The taxpayer mistakenly deducted losses that exceeded the limitation in IRC Sec. 704(d), raising the question: Should the taxpayer reduce its basis in subsequent years by the amount of those disallowed losses or compute the basis by treating those losses as if they were never deducted?
Parametric (https://www.parametricportfolio.com/blog): If your clients are using more traditional commingled products for their passive exposures, they may not know how much tax money they’re leaving on the table. A look at possible advantages of a separately managed account.
Turbotax (https://blog.turbotax.intuit.com): Whether they’re talking diversification, gainful hobby or income stream, what to remind them about the tax benefits of investing in real estate.
The National Association of Tax Professionals (https://blog.natptax.com/): Q&A from a recent webinar on day cares’ unique income and expense categories.
Boyum & Barenscheer (https://www.myboyum.com/blog/): For larger manufacturers, compliance under IRC 263A is essential. And for all manufacturers, effective inventory management goes beyond balancing stock levels. Key factors affecting inventory accounting for large and small manufacturing businesses.
Withum (https://www.withum.com/resources/): A look at the recent IRS Memorandum 2024-36010 that denied the application of IRC Sec. 245A to dividends received by a controlled foreign corporation.
PwC made a $1.5 million investment to Bryant University, in Smithfield, Rhode Island, to fund the launch of the PwC AI in Accounting Fellowship.
The experiential learning program allows undergraduate students to explore AI’s impact in accounting by way of engaging in research with faculty, corporate-sponsored projects and professional development that blends traditional accounting principles with AI-driven tools and platforms.
The first cohort of PwC AI in Accounting Fellows will be awarded to members of the Bryant Honors Program planning to study accounting. The fellowship funds can be applied to various educational resources, including conference fees, specialized data sheets, software and travel.
“Aligned with our Vision 2030 strategic plan and our commitment to experiential learning and academic excellence, the fellowship also builds upon PwC’s longstanding relationship with Bryant University,” Bryant University president Ross Gittell said in a statement. “This strong partnership supports institutional objectives and includes the annual PwC Accounting Careers Leadership Institute for rising high school seniors, the PwC Endowed Scholarship Fund, the PwC Book Fund, and the PwC Center for Diversity and Inclusion.”
Bob Calabro, a PwC US partner and 1988 Bryant University alumnus and trustee, helped lead the development of the program.
“We are excited to introduce students to the many opportunities available to them in the accounting field and to prepare them to make the most of those opportunities, This program further illustrates the strong relationship between PwC and Bryant University, where so many of our partners and staff began their career journey in accounting” Calabro said in a statement.
“Bryant’s Accounting faculty are excited to work with our PwC AI in Accounting Fellows to help them develop impactful research projects and create important experiential learning opportunities,” professor Daniel Ames, chair of Bryant’s accounting department, said in a statement. “This program provides an invaluable opportunity for students to apply AI concepts to real-world accounting, shaping their educational journey in significant ways.”