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Hedge against political cycles is better investment than AI: Van Eck

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Defending the year's two hottest trades: one loud, one quiet

A major exchange-traded fund and mutual fund manager finds the winning gold trade isn’t talked about as much as the artificial intelligence trade — but maybe it should be.

VanEck CEO Jan van Eck thinks the best investment this year is “the hedge against political cycles.” To him, that means investing in gold

“It is quietly the best performing asset this year,” Van Eck told CNBC’s “ETF Edge” from the Future Proof conference in Huntington Beach on Monday.

Gold hit another record on Friday, its 37th record this year. As of Friday’s market close, it is up 28% since the start of the year.

Van Eck, whose firm runs the VanEck Gold Miners ETF, expects foreign investments in bullion will continue to give the commodity a boost. It should also help in lifting gold miners higher, which started the year lagging the commodity. But as of Friday, the VanEck Gold Miners ETF has started to outperform, up 31% this year.

“I think you own both because the miners, if they catch up at all, it’s going to rip,” he said.

As for the AI trade, van Eck says it’s “amazing” how investors refuse to give up on it.

“It’s like part of people’s model portfolios, or core portfolios, is to have this tactical overweight to semis. And some of our biggest clients actually bought on the dip over the last week or two,” the VanEck CEO said.

Last month, his firm launched the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF. It’s a companion to its VanEck Semiconductor ETF that excludes companies that run their own foundries, such as Intel.

FactSet reports the new ETF’s top holdings as Nvidia, Broadcom and Advanced Micro Devices as of Friday.

“Why spend billions of dollars on building the chips if you don’t have to?” van Eck said. “Nvidia doesn’t build its own chips. So that’s another kind of investment strategy.”

Since launching on Aug. 28, the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF is up a half percent.

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Insiders at UnitedHealth are scooping up tarnished shares

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Key Points

  • UnitedHealth Group saw some of its insiders step in and purchase declining shares this week.
  • Kristen Gil, a director at the firm, bought 3,700 shares worth roughly $1 million on Thursday.
  • Shares of UnitedHealth plunged nearly 11% to $274.35 on Thursday following a report in The Wall Street Journal that the Department of Justice is conducting a criminal investigation into possible Medicare fraud.

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Federal Reserve will reduce staff by 10% in coming years, Powell memo says

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U.S. Federal Reserve in Washington, DC, on January 30, 2024.

Mandel Ngan | Afp | Getty Images

The Federal Reserve will look to reduce its headcount by 10% over the next couple of years, including offering deferred resignation to some older employees, central bank chair Jerome Powell said in a memo.

“Experience here and elsewhere shows that it is healthy for any organization to periodically take a fresh look at its staffing and resources. The Fed has done that from time to time as our work, priorities, or external environment have changed,” Powell said in a memo obtained by CNBC.

The central bank chief added that he has instructed leaders throughout the Fed “to find incremental ways to consolidate functions where appropriate, modernize some business practices, and ensure that we are right-sized and able to meet our statutory mission.” One method for shrinking the staff will be to offer a voluntary deferred resignation program to employees of the Federal Reserve Board who would be fully eligible to retire at the end of 2027.

The central bank said in its 2023 annual report that it had just under 24,000 employees. A 10% reduction would bring that number below 22,000.

The memo comes as the Trump administration has pushed for cost cuts across civil service agencies, spearheaded by Elon Musk and the so-called Department of Government Efficiency. Musk has previously called the Fed “absurdly overstaffed.” Powell’s memo did not mention Musk or DOGE as a factor in the decision to shrink headcount.

The planned staff cuts were first reported by Bloomberg News.

— CNBC’s Matt Cuddy contributed reporting.

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Stocks making the biggest moves midday: AMAT, NVO, CAVA, VST

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