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Here are the signs of an improving housing market

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Home affordability has slightly improved for buyers this summer, according to a recent report. 

The median new mortgage payment was $2,167 in June, a 2.4% decline from $2,219 in May, according to new data from the Mortgage Bankers Association. The index measures how new monthly mortgage payments change over time, relative to income. 

A decrease in the index shows borrower affordability improved, which can happen when loan application amounts and mortgage rates decrease, or homebuyer earnings grow.

“Homebuyer affordability conditions improved for the second straight month as declining mortgage rates continue to increase purchasing power and is enticing some borrowers back into the housing market,” Edward Seiler, MBA’s associate vice president of housing economics, wrote in the release.

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Lawrence Yun, chief economist and senior vice president of research of the National Association of Realtors, also sees promising indicators for homebuyers.

“Housing affordability is improving ever so modestly, but it is moving in the right direction,” he said.

‘The bigger picture’ shows payments are still high

The median loan amount on new applications fell to $320,512 in June, from $325,000 in May, a sign that home-price growth is moderating as well, according to MBA data provided to CNBC.

A slight decrease in mortgage rates in the month of June definitely helped buyers, said Yun.

The 30-year fixed rate mortgage declined to 6.78% on July 25, down from 7.22% on May 2, according to Freddie Mac data via the Fed.

But it’s a “very small improvement” in context, he said — the typical monthly mortgage payment has essentially doubled from pre-Covid years. Before Covid, a $1,000 mortgage payment was the norm; today it’s above $2,000, he said.

“In the bigger picture, it is a substantial increase on pre-Covid conditions, yet on a month-to-month basis, it is a slight improvement,” Yun said.

More sellers, less competition for buyers

Investors think the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates about three times in the latter half of the year, which would “further improve housing affordability,” Yun added,

While the housing market isn’t yet a buyer’s market, more supply and declining rates indeed create favorable conditions for buyers, according to experts.

Housing affordability is improving ever so modestly, but it is moving in the right direction.

Lawrence Yun

chief economist and senior vice president of research of the National Association of Realtors

“The market is certainly tilting more towards buyers,” said Chen Zhao, the economic research lead at Redfin, an online real estate brokerage firm, who said the market is balancing itself.

While there’s still an affordability challenge broadly, conditions are “moving towards a more neutral market,” Orphe Divounguy, a senior economist at Zillow.

In some areas, buyers are getting pickier as more listings pop up. Total housing inventory registered at the end of June was 1.32 million units, up 3.1% from May and 23.4% from a year ago, according to NAR. Unsold inventory is at a 4.1-month supply, up from 3.7 months in May and 3.1 months a year ago.

“It’s very good news for the buyer side,” said Yun, as you’re less likely to get caught up in a bidding war.

Competition is easing fastest in the South, where all major southern markets except Dallas and Raleigh are either neutral or buyer-friendly, according to the June 2024 Zillow Housing Market Report.

“With more inventory, that does certainly mean that buyers have more options,” said Selma Hepp, chief economist at CoreLogic. “But that is very regional. And the ones with the most increases in inventories, they’re struggling with other issues,” like high insurance costs.

Some sellers are cutting prices to attract buyers, said Divounguy.

“Sellers are having to do a little bit more to entice buyers,” he said. “We see one in four sellers are cutting their prices — the most for any June in the last six years — to try to sway buyers.”

About one in five, or 19.8%, of homes for sale in June had a price cut, the highest level of any June on record, according to Redfin. That’s up from 14.4% from a year ago.

“Sellers are always trying to maximize their prices, but the sellers should be mindful that there’s more competition,” Yun said.

Home builders are also trying to attract buyers: About 31% of builders cut prices to increase home sales, up from 29% in June and 25% in May, according to a July 2024 survey by the National Association of Home Builders.

However, “the number one thing” for buyers is to “stay within budget,” Yun said. “Just because mortgage rates declined  does not mean time to overstress their budget.”

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Why the ‘great resignation’ became the ‘great stay’: labor economists

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The U.S. job market has undergone a dramatic transformation in recent years, from one characterized by record levels of employee turnover to one in which there is little churn.

In short, the “great resignation” of 2021 and 2022 has morphed into what some labor economists call the “great stay,” a job market with low levels of hiring, quits and layoffs.

“The turbulence of the pandemic-era labor market is increasingly in the rearview mirror,” said Julia Pollak, chief economist at ZipRecruiter.

How the job market has changed

Employers clamored to hire as the U.S. economy reopened from its Covid-fueled lull. Job openings rose to historic levels, unemployment fell to its lowest point since the late 1960s and wages grew at their fastest pace in decades as businesses competed for talent.

More than 50 million workers quit their jobs in 2022, breaking a record set just the year prior, attracted by better and ample job opportunities elsewhere.

The labor market has gradually cooled, however.

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The quits rate is “below what it was prior to the start of the pandemic, after reaching a feverish peak in 2022,” said Allison Shrivastava, an economist at job site Indeed.

Hiring has slowed to its lowest rate since 2013, excluding the early days of the pandemic. Yet, layoffs are still low by historical standards.

This dynamic — more people stay in their jobs amid low layoffs and unemployment — “point to employers holding on to their workforce along with more employees staying in their current jobs,” Shrivastava said.

Big causes for the great stay

Employer “scarring” is a primary driver of the so-called great stay, ZipRecruiter’s Pollak said.

Businesses are loath to lay off workers now after struggling to hire and retain workers just a few years ago.

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But job openings have declined, reducing the number of quits, which is a barometer of worker confidence in being able to find a new gig. This dynamic is largely due to another factor: the U.S. Federal Reserve’s campaign between early 2022 and mid-2023 to raise interest rates to tame high inflation, Pollak said.

It became more expensive to borrow, leading businesses to pull back on expansion and new ventures, and in turn, reduce hiring, she said. The Fed started cutting interest rates in September, but signaled after its latest rate cut on Wednesday that it would move slower to reduce rates than previously forecast.

Overall, dynamics suggest a “stabilizing labor market, though one still shaped by the lessons of recent shocks,” said Indeed’s Shrivastava.

The great stay means Americans with a job have “unprecedented job security,” Pollak said.

But those looking for a job — including new college graduates and workers dissatisfied with their current role — will likely have a tough time finding a gig, Pollak said. She recommends they widen their search and perhaps try to learn new skills.

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Student loan forgiveness plans withdrawn by Biden administration

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U.S. President Joe Biden delivers remarks during the Tribal Nations Summit at the Department of the Interior in Washington, D.C., U.S., December 9, 2024. 

Elizabeth Frantz | Reuters

The Biden administration has withdrawn two major plans to deliver student loan forgiveness.

The proposed regulations would have allowed the U.S. Department of Education secretary to cancel student loans for several groups of borrowers, including those who had been in repayment for decades and others experiencing financial hardship.

The combined policies could have reduced or eliminated the education debts of millions of Americans.

The Education department posted notices in the Federal Register last week that it was withdrawing the plans, weeks before President-elect Donald Trump enters the White House.

The Education department did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

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“The Biden administration knew that the proposals for broad student loan forgiveness would have been thwarted by the Trump administration,” said higher education expert Mark Kantrowitz.

Trump is a vocal critic of student loan forgiveness, and on the campaign trail he called President Joe Biden’s efforts “vile” and “not even legal.”

Biden’s latest plans became known as a kind of “Plan B” after the Supreme Court in June 2023 struck down his first major effort to clear people’s student loans.

Consumer advocates expressed disappointment and concern about the reversal on debt relief.

“President Biden’s proposals would have freed millions from the crushing weight of the student debt crisis and unlocked economic mobility for millions more workers and families,” Persis Yu, deputy executive director and managing counsel of the Student Borrower Protection Center, said in a statement.

Student loan forgiveness still available

“There are so many borrowers concerned about the impact on the new administration with their student loans,” said Elaine Rubin, director of corporate communications at Edvisors, which helps students navigate college costs and borrowing.

For now, the Education department still offers a wide range of student loan forgiveness programs, including Public Service Loan Forgiveness and Teacher Loan Forgiveness, experts pointed out.

PSLF allows certain not-for-profit and government employees to have their federal student loans cleared after 10 years of on-time payments. Under TLF, those who teach full-time for five consecutive academic years in a low-income school or educational service agency can be eligible for loan forgiveness of up to $17,500.

The Biden administration announced Friday that it would forgive another $4.28 billion in student loan debt for 54,900 borrowers who work in public service through PSLF.

“Many borrowers are particularly concerned about the future of the PSLF program, which is written into law,” Rubin said. “Eliminating it would require an act of Congress.”

At Studentaid.gov, borrowers can search for more federal relief options that remain available.

Meanwhile, The Institute of Student Loan Advisors has a database of student loan forgiveness programs by state.

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Here’s what you need to know before investing in bitcoin ETFs

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It has been a banner year for spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds, with some of the biggest asset managers introducing ETFs that hold the flagship digital currency. But there are things to consider before adding these ETFs to your portfolio, experts say.  

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approved the first spot bitcoin ETFs in January. Earlier this month, the 12 spot bitcoin ETFs collectively surpassed $100 billion in assets under management, marking one of the most successful ETF launches in history.

Bitcoin ETFs give investors a “traditional way to buy an untraditional asset,” said certified financial planner Douglas Boneparth, president of Bone Fide Wealth in New York.

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Despite recent volatility, the price of bitcoin was still up nearly 120% year to date, as of Dec. 20, fueled in part by the pro-crypto policy proposed by President-elect Donald Trump.  

There is a lot of upside potential, said Boneparth, who is also a member of CNBC’s Financial Advisor Council. But there is typically a “tremendous amount of volatility” compared to traditional asset classes.

If you are still ready to buy bitcoin ETFs, here’s what to consider.

Advisors remain ‘cautious’ about bitcoin ETFs

“Most advisors are still relatively cautious about using these [bitcoin ETFs] with their clients,” said Amy Arnott, a portfolio strategist with Morningstar Research Services.

To that point, some 59% of financial advisors are not currently using or discussing cryptocurrency with their clients, according to a survey released in June from Cerulli Associates. The survey polled 271 advisors during the first quarter of 2024, when the price of bitcoin was lower.  

Follow a ‘rebalancing policy’

If you are eager to add bitcoin ETFs to your portfolio, Arnott suggests keeping your allocation small — around 2% to 3%, maximum — and rebalancing regularly.

Your allocation should be based on your goals, risk tolerance and timeline. Without rebalancing, a ballooning bitcoin ETF position could have a “drastic impact on the overall portfolio’s risk profile,” she said.

It’s good to rebalance on a regular schedule, quarterly at a minimum, or even monthly…

Amy Arnott

Portfolio strategist with Morningstar Research Services

You can follow a “rebalancing policy” by trimming profits whenever your bitcoin ETF allocation exceeds a predetermined percent of your portfolio, Arnott said. That requires regular monitoring.

“It’s good to rebalance on a regular schedule, quarterly at a minimum, or even monthly” for volatile assets such as bitcoin, she said.

Consider your timeline

Like other investments, it is important to consider your goals and timeline before adding bitcoin ETFs to your portfolio, Arnott said.

Similar to stocks, Morningstar’s portfolio framework recommends holding bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies for at least 10 years due to volatility, periodic drawdowns and crypto winters.

“It’s not a good place to be if you’re saving for a down payment on the house in a few years,” Arnott said.

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