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Here’s how the election could affect your taxes

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Vice President Kamala Harris, left, and former President Donald Trump

Reuters

As former U.S. president Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris unveil their economic agendas, both presidential candidates have called for tax changes that could affect millions of Americans.

Taxes will be a key issue for the next president. Without action from Congress, trillions in tax breaks enacted by Trump via the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, or TCJA, will expire after 2025. More than 60% of taxpayers could see higher taxes in 2026 without extensions, according to the Tax Foundation.

Expiring provisions include lower federal income tax brackets, a higher standard deduction, a bigger child tax credit and more generous estate and gift tax exemptions, among others.

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However, “there’s a gulf between the political rhetoric around the 2017 tax law and the policy reality that both parties are going to face next year,” said Andrew Lautz, associate director for the Bipartisan Policy Center’s economic policy program.

While Democrats have criticized elements of the TCJA, both parties will likely agree to extend trillions in tax cuts, he said. But negotiations could be challenging amid concerns about the federal budget deficit

Extending TCJA provisions and subsidized premiums for marketplace health insurance could increase federal deficits by nearly $5 trillion over 10 years, according to the Bipartisan Policy Center.

Here’s a breakdown of where each candidate stands on tax policy.

Plans to extend Trump’s tax cuts

Trump aims to preserve the individual and business tax cuts enacted via TCJA, the campaign said in a press release on Monday.

He addressed his tax agenda briefly during an event in York, Pennsylvania on Monday, which countered the Democratic National Convention. During that speech, he promised “big tax cuts for families and small businesses.”

Harris hasn’t directly addressed TCJA extensions during her 2024 campaign. But President Joe Biden‘s top economic advisor Lael Brainard in May voiced support for partial extensions.

“Achieving a fairer tax system also means we can’t extend expiring Trump tax cuts for those with incomes above $400,000,” she said.

The Trump and Harris campaigns did not respond to CNBC’s request for comment.

Proposed tax increases

Both candidates have vowed to address the budget deficit and have proposed measures to raise revenue. But tax law changes must be approved by Congress, which could be challenging, depending on future House and Senate control.

The Harris campaign on Monday said she would push to increase the corporate tax rate to 28%, up from the 21% permanently enacted via the TCJA. The plan could reduce the deficit by $1 trillion over a decade, according to estimates from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

Meanwhile, Trump has called for sweeping tariffs, which are taxes levied on imported goods from another country.

Trump’s proposed baseline 10% tariff and 60% levy on Chinese goods could reduce the average after-tax U.S. household income by roughly $1,800 in 2025, according to the Tax Policy Center.

During his event on Monday, Trump pushed back on the assertion that tariffs would cost American consumers. “It’s a tax on a foreign country,” he said.

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Tax cuts on tips, Social Security

Both campaigns have also floated eliminating income tax on tip income, pitching the idea at separate events in Nevada, a battleground state and service industry hotbed. Harris shared her plan on Aug. 10, roughly two months after Trump proposed the idea.

Despite some bipartisan support in Congress, the idea has faced criticism from some policy experts who believe the measure could face administrative hurdles and possible abuse.

The big question for us as policy wonks is, what is the underlying policy rationale?

Garrett Watson

Senior policy analyst and modeling manager at the Tax Foundation

“The big question for us as policy wonks is, what is the underlying policy rationale?” said Garrett Watson, senior policy analyst and modeling manager at the Tax Foundation.

Trump has also called for no taxes on Social Security income. Social Security is a key issue for voters this election, according to a CNBC poll. CNBC surveyed 1,001 registered voters July 31-Aug. 4.

Child tax credit expansion

Harris on Friday shared an economic plan, including an expanded child tax credit worth up to $6,000 in total tax relief for families with newborn children, among other priorities.

Her plan came less than one week after Sen. JD Vance of Ohio, former President Donald Trump‘s GOP running mate, floated a $5,000 child tax credit

A Trump campaign official told CNBC at the time: “Trump will consider a significant expansion of the child tax credit that applies to American families.”

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Nearly half of credit card users are carrying debt, report finds

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Consumers still face inflation challenges despite having spending power: TD Cowen's Oliver Chen

Many Americans are starting 2025 a little worse off than before, at least when it comes to credit card debt.

Almost half of cardholders — 48% — now carry debt from month to month, according to a new report by Bankrate. That’s up from 44% at the start of 2024. Of those carrying balances, 53% have been in debt for at least a year.

Roughly 47% of borrowers said they carry a balance due to an unexpected or emergency expense, most commonly medical bills or car and home repairs. Others cite higher day-to-day expenses and general overspending.

“High inflation and high interest rates have been a nasty combination, and while the worst is behind us, the cumulative effects are significant and will linger,” Ted Rossman, Bankrate’s senior industry analyst, said in a statement.

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Overall, Americans’ credit card tab has continually crept higher. 

The average balance per consumer now stands at $6,380, up 4.8% year over year, according to the latest credit industry insights report from TransUnion from 2024’s third quarter.

By way of example: With annual percentage rates just over 20%, if you made minimum payments toward the average credit card balance ($6,380), it would take you more than 18 years to pay off the debt and cost you more than $9,344 in interest over that time period, Rossman calculated.

Meanwhile, 36% of consumers added to their debt load over the holiday season, according to a separate report by LendingTree.

Of those with debt, 21% expect it’ll take five months or longer to pay it off, LendingTree found. 

According to another report by WalletHub, 24% of Americans said they will need more than six months to pay off their holiday shopping debt. In that survey, most consumers said inflation caused them to spend more than they initially planned.

“Many people need months to repay holiday bills after overspending,” said John Kiernan, editor at WalletHub.

The best way to pay down debt

The best move for those struggling to pay down credit card debt is to consolidate with a 0% balance transfer card, Bankrate’s Rossman said.

“You could pay about $300 per month and knock out the average credit card balance in 21 months without owing any interest,” he said.

As it stands, 30% of credit cardholders expect to pay off their credit card debt within a year, while 41% expect to pay it off in 1 to 5 years, Bankrate also found. Another 13% expect it will take more than a decade.

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Crypto options in 401(k) plans. Here’s what you need to know

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Crypto in a 401(K) plan

The rally in bitcoin and other cryptocurrency prices has generated excitement among some investors, but investment advisors are largely still skeptical that those volatile assets belong in a 401(k) plan or other qualified retirement savings plans.  

Crypto was one of the fastest-growing categories of exchange-traded funds in 2024. The most popular of these funds, the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT), has ballooned to over $50 billion in total assets.

Although crypto is a small part of the 401(k) plan market, it could grow substantially in 2025.

President-elect Donald Trump has suggested he will create a strategic reserve of bitcoin for the U.S. and has nominated Paul Atkins, a cryptocurrency advocate, to chair the Securities and Exchange Commission. The SEC’s approval of spot bitcoin and ethereum exchange-traded funds in 2024 was a key change for the industry. 

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The law covering 401(k) plans requires plan sponsors to act as fiduciaries, or in investors’ best interest, by considering the risk of loss and potential gains of investments. The Labor Department has cautioned fiduciaries to exercise “extreme care” before adding crypto options to a 401(k) plan’s core investments. 

Labor Department officials, however, haven’t required fiduciaries to select and monitor all investment options, like those offered through self-directed brokerage windows, according to the Government Accountability Office. Nearly 40% of plans now offer brokerage windows in their 401(k) accounts, according to a 2023 survey by the Plan Sponsor Council of America

Pros and cons of crypto in a 401(k) plan

Fernando Gutierrez-Juarez | Picture Alliance | Getty Images

Other experts point to volatility and risk as reasons to be conservative.

“People saving for retirement should probably be even more conservative, because adding crypto to a 401(k) plan would significantly increase the risk that your retirement nest egg could suffer a large loss at the wrong time,” said Amy Arnott, a chartered financial analyst and portfolio strategist with Morningstar Research Services.

Morningstar found that since September 2015, bitcoin has been nearly five times as volatile as U.S. stocks, and ether nearly 10 times as volatile. That type of volatility adds a large risk to a portfolio even with a small amount invested.

401(k) contribution limits for 2025 

Regardless of what assets are in a 401(k) plan, there are limits to how much you can contribute. For 2025, an employee can contribute up to $23,500 in a 401(k) and other employer-sponsored plans — that’s $500 more than in 2024.

People age 50 or older can make a “catch-up contribution” of up to $7,500. And those age 60 to 63 years old can supersize that, with a catch-up contribution of up to $11,250 for 2025.

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Why your paycheck is slightly bigger

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Simpleimages | Moment | Getty Images

Why your take-home pay could be higher

If you’re starting 2025 with similar wages to 2024, your take-home pay — or compensation after taxes and benefit deductions — could be a little higher, depending on your withholdings, according to Long.

“When all the tax brackets go up, but your salary stays the same, relatively, that puts you on a lower rung of the ladder,” he said.

The federal income tax brackets show how much you owe on each part of your “taxable income,” which you calculate by subtracting the greater of the standard or itemized deductions from your adjusted gross income.

“Even if you make a little more than last year, you could actually pay less in tax in 2025 compared to 2024,” because the standard deduction also increased, Long said. 

For 2025, the standard deduction increases to $30,000 for married couples filing jointly, up from $29,200 in 2024. The tax break is also larger for single filers, who can claim $15,000 in 2025, a bump from $14,600.  

‘It ends up nearly balancing out’

Tax Tip: 401(K) limits for 2025

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