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Here’s how the election could affect your taxes

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Vice President Kamala Harris, left, and former President Donald Trump

Reuters

As former U.S. president Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris unveil their economic agendas, both presidential candidates have called for tax changes that could affect millions of Americans.

Taxes will be a key issue for the next president. Without action from Congress, trillions in tax breaks enacted by Trump via the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, or TCJA, will expire after 2025. More than 60% of taxpayers could see higher taxes in 2026 without extensions, according to the Tax Foundation.

Expiring provisions include lower federal income tax brackets, a higher standard deduction, a bigger child tax credit and more generous estate and gift tax exemptions, among others.

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However, “there’s a gulf between the political rhetoric around the 2017 tax law and the policy reality that both parties are going to face next year,” said Andrew Lautz, associate director for the Bipartisan Policy Center’s economic policy program.

While Democrats have criticized elements of the TCJA, both parties will likely agree to extend trillions in tax cuts, he said. But negotiations could be challenging amid concerns about the federal budget deficit

Extending TCJA provisions and subsidized premiums for marketplace health insurance could increase federal deficits by nearly $5 trillion over 10 years, according to the Bipartisan Policy Center.

Here’s a breakdown of where each candidate stands on tax policy.

Plans to extend Trump’s tax cuts

Trump aims to preserve the individual and business tax cuts enacted via TCJA, the campaign said in a press release on Monday.

He addressed his tax agenda briefly during an event in York, Pennsylvania on Monday, which countered the Democratic National Convention. During that speech, he promised “big tax cuts for families and small businesses.”

Harris hasn’t directly addressed TCJA extensions during her 2024 campaign. But President Joe Biden‘s top economic advisor Lael Brainard in May voiced support for partial extensions.

“Achieving a fairer tax system also means we can’t extend expiring Trump tax cuts for those with incomes above $400,000,” she said.

The Trump and Harris campaigns did not respond to CNBC’s request for comment.

Proposed tax increases

Both candidates have vowed to address the budget deficit and have proposed measures to raise revenue. But tax law changes must be approved by Congress, which could be challenging, depending on future House and Senate control.

The Harris campaign on Monday said she would push to increase the corporate tax rate to 28%, up from the 21% permanently enacted via the TCJA. The plan could reduce the deficit by $1 trillion over a decade, according to estimates from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

Meanwhile, Trump has called for sweeping tariffs, which are taxes levied on imported goods from another country.

Trump’s proposed baseline 10% tariff and 60% levy on Chinese goods could reduce the average after-tax U.S. household income by roughly $1,800 in 2025, according to the Tax Policy Center.

During his event on Monday, Trump pushed back on the assertion that tariffs would cost American consumers. “It’s a tax on a foreign country,” he said.

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Tax cuts on tips, Social Security

Both campaigns have also floated eliminating income tax on tip income, pitching the idea at separate events in Nevada, a battleground state and service industry hotbed. Harris shared her plan on Aug. 10, roughly two months after Trump proposed the idea.

Despite some bipartisan support in Congress, the idea has faced criticism from some policy experts who believe the measure could face administrative hurdles and possible abuse.

The big question for us as policy wonks is, what is the underlying policy rationale?

Garrett Watson

Senior policy analyst and modeling manager at the Tax Foundation

“The big question for us as policy wonks is, what is the underlying policy rationale?” said Garrett Watson, senior policy analyst and modeling manager at the Tax Foundation.

Trump has also called for no taxes on Social Security income. Social Security is a key issue for voters this election, according to a CNBC poll. CNBC surveyed 1,001 registered voters July 31-Aug. 4.

Child tax credit expansion

Harris on Friday shared an economic plan, including an expanded child tax credit worth up to $6,000 in total tax relief for families with newborn children, among other priorities.

Her plan came less than one week after Sen. JD Vance of Ohio, former President Donald Trump‘s GOP running mate, floated a $5,000 child tax credit

A Trump campaign official told CNBC at the time: “Trump will consider a significant expansion of the child tax credit that applies to American families.”

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House Republicans advance Trump’s tax bill. ‘SALT’ deduction in limbo

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Rep. Jason Smith, R-Mo., speaks during a House Oversight and Accountability Committee impeachment inquiry hearing into U.S. President Joe Biden on Sept. 28, 2023.

Jonathan Ernst | Reuters

House Republicans have advanced trillions of tax breaks as part of President Donald Trump‘s economic package.

After debating the legislation overnight, the House Ways and Means Committee, which oversees tax, passed its portion of the legislation on Wednesday morning in a 26-19 party line vote.

But the battle over the deduction for state and local taxes, known as SALT, remains in limbo.

The text released Monday afternoon would raise the SALT cap to $30,000 for those with a modified adjusted gross income of $400,000 or less. But some House lawmakers still want to see a higher limit before the full House vote.

While the SALT deduction is a key priority for certain lawmakers in high-tax states, the current $10,000 cap was added to help fund the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, or TCJA, of 2017.

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Following the vote, House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Jason Smith, R-Mo., said in a statement that Ways and Means Republicans will “continue to work closely with President Trump and our House colleagues to get the One, Big, Beautiful Bill that delivers on the President’s agenda to his desk as soon as possible.”   

The full House vote could come as early as next week. But the legislation could see significant changes in the Senate, experts say.

House Republicans’ proposed tax cuts

The House Ways and Means Committee legislation includes several of Trump’s campaign priorities, including extensions of tax breaks enacted via the TCJA.

If enacted as drafted, Republicans could also deliver no tax on tips and tax-free overtime pay. But questions remain about the details of these provisions.  

Rather than cutting taxes on Social Security, the plan includes an extra $4,000 deduction for older Americans, which may not fully cover Social Security income, according to some experts.

The $4,000 deduction costs $90 billion over 10 years, compared to $1 trillion for exempting Social Security income from tax, Garrett Watson, director of policy analysis at the Tax Foundation, wrote in a post on X Tuesday.

“Tax filers with no other income sources outside of Social Security would typically see little benefit, while others may see bigger gains from this idea,” he wrote in that thread. 

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The House Ways and Means bill also extends the maximum child tax credit of $2,000 enacted via the TCJA, and temporarily raises the tax break to $2,500 per child through 2028.

However, some policy experts have criticized the proposed credit design since lower earners typically can’t claim the full amount.

The proposed legislation “did nothing for the 17 million children that are left out of the current $2,000 credit,” Kris Cox, director of federal tax policy with the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities’ federal fiscal policy division, told CNBC.

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Social Security benefits at risk for defaulted student loan borrowers

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Vgajic | E+ | Getty Images

Social Security beneficiaries are at risk of receiving a smaller benefit if they’ve fallen behind on their student loans.

The Trump administration recently announced it would move to offset defaulted student loan borrowers’ federal benefits, and warned that payments could be garnished as soon as June.

That involuntary collection activity could have serious consequences on those who rely on the benefits to pay most, if not all, of their bills, consumer advocates say.

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There are some 2.9 million people age 62 and older with federal student loans, as of the first quarter of 2025, according to Education Department data. That is a 71% increase from 2017, when there were 1.7 million such borrowers, according to the data.

More than 450,000 borrowers in that age group are in default on their federal student loans and likely to be receiving Social Security benefits, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau found.

Here’s what borrowers need to know.

Up to 15% of Social Security benefits can be taken

Social Security recipients can typically see up to 15% of their monthly benefit reduced to pay back their defaulted student debt, but beneficiaries need to be left with at least $750 a month, experts said.

The offset cap is the same “regardless of the type of benefit,” including retirement and disability payments, said higher education expert Mark Kantrowitz.

The 15% offset is calculated from your total benefit amount before any deductions, such as your Medicare premium, Kantrowitz said.

Little notice provided

Student loan borrowers facing offsets of their federal benefits seem to be getting less notice under the Trump administration, Kantrowitz said.

While a 65-day heads-up used to be the norm, it seems the Education Department is now assuming borrowers who are in default were already notified about possible collection activity prior to the Covid-19 pandemic, he said.

“The failure of the U.S. Department of Education to provide the 65-day notice limits the ability of borrowers to challenge the Treasury offset of their Social Security benefit payments,” Kantrowitz said.

Still, borrowers should get at least a 30-day warning, Kantrowitz said. The notice should be sent to your last known address, so borrowers should make sure their loan servicer has their most recent contact information.

The Education Department provided defaulted federal student borrowers with the required notice, a spokesperson told CNBC after collections efforts resumed May 5.

“The notice may be sent only once, and borrowers may have received this notice before Covid,” the spokesperson said.

You can still contest offset

Once you receive a notice that your Social Security benefits will be offset, you should have the option to challenge the collection activity, Kantrowitz said. The notice is supposed to include information on how you can do so, he said.

You may be able to prevent the offset if you can prove a financial hardship or have a pending student loan discharge, Kantrowitz added.

“Borrowers who receive these notices should not panic,” said Nancy Nierman, assistant director of the Education Debt Consumer Assistance Program. “They should reach out for help as soon as possible.”

Getting out of default

The best way to avoid the offset of your Social Security benefits is to get current on your loans, said Betsy Mayotte, president of The Institute of Student Loan Advisors, a nonprofit.

You can contact the government’s Default Resolution Group and pursue several different avenues to get out of default, including enrolling in an income-driven repayment plan.

“If Social Security is their only income, their payment under those plans would likely be zero,” Mayotte said.

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How to save for college in a volatile market

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Stephanie Phillips | Getty Images

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“Markets go up and down, but students’ goals remain the same,” said Chris McGee, chair of the College Savings Foundation.

529 plan popularity has soared

In 2024, the number of 529 plan accounts increased to 17 million, up more than 3% percent from the year before, according to Investment Company Institute.

Total investments in 529s rose to $525 billion as of December, up 11% from a year earlier, while the average 529 plan account balance hit a record of $30,961, data from the College Savings Plans Network, a network of state-administered college savings programs, also showed.

The industry is coming off its best year ever in terms of new inflows,” said Richard Polimeni, head of education savings at ‎Merrill Lynch.

However, “in terms of the current market volatility, that creates some concern,” he added.

Student loan matching funds

Even as concerns over college costs are driving more would-be college students to rethink their plans, college savings accounts are still as vital as ever.

Roughly 42% of students are pivoting to technical and career training or credentialing, or are opting to enroll in a local and less-expensive community college or in-state public school, according to a recent survey of 1,000 high schoolers by the College Savings Foundation. That’s up from 37% last year. 

As a result of those shifting education choices, 69% of students are expecting to live at home during their studies, the highest percentage in three years. 

Despite those adjustments, some recent changes have helped make 529 plans even more worthwhile: As of 2024, families can roll over unused 529 funds to the account beneficiary’s Roth individual retirement account, without triggering income taxes or penalties, so long as they meet certain requirements.

Restrictions have also loosened to allow 529 plan funds to be used for continuing education classes, apprenticeship programs and student loan payments. For grandparents, there is also a new “loophole,” which allows them to fund a grandchild’s college without impacting that student’s financial aid eligibility.

Managing 529 allocations in a volatile market

For parents worried about their account’s recent performance, Mary Morris, CEO of Commonwealth Savers, advises checking the asset allocation. “What you need to think about is assessing your risk appetite,” she said.

Generally, 529 plans offer age-based portfolios, which start off with more equity exposure early on in a child’s life and then become more conservative as college nears. By the time high school graduation is around the corner, families likely have very little invested in stocks and more in investments like bonds and cash. That can help blunt their losses.

Pay attention to your fund’s approach toward shifting from stocks to bonds, Morris said.

“If you are in a total stock portfolio, you may not want that ride,” she said: “You don’t want to get seasick.”

If the market volatility is still too much to bear, consider adjusting your allocation.

“One strategy is to start de-risking a portion of their portfolio and reallocate a portion into cash equivalent, which will provide a protection of principle while also proving a competitive return and peace of mind,” Polimeni said.

Still, financial experts strongly caution against shifting your entire 529 balance to cash. “The worst thing an investor can do in a down market is panic and sell investments prematurely and lock in losses,” Polimeni said.

Often that is the last resort. In the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, only 10% of investors liquidated their entire 529 accounts, and 20% switched to less risky assets, according to an earlier survey by higher education expert Mark Kantrowitz.

How to help 529 assets recover

For those who must make a hefty withdrawal for tuition payments now due, Polimeni suggests considering using income or savings outside the 529 to cover immediate college expenses, and requesting a reimbursement later.

You can get reimbursed from your 529 plan for any eligible out-of-pocket expenses within the same calendar year. “Using that strategy gives another six to seven months for the market to recover,” Polimeni said.

Another option is to tap a federal student loan and take a qualified distribution from the 529 plan to pay off the debt down the road. However, if you’re thinking of taking out private student loans or a personal loan that starts incurring interest immediately, you may want to spend 529 funds first in that case, and defer that borrowing until later.

Once you have a withdrawal plan, you can — and should — keep contributing to your 529, experts say. Not only can you get a tax deduction or credit for contributions, but earnings will grow on a tax-advantaged basis, whether over 18 years or just a few.

“The major advantage is the tax-deferred growth, so the longer you are invested, the more tax-deferred growth you will have,” Polimeni said.

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