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Here’s the inflation breakdown for July 2024 — in one chart

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Inflation continued to retreat in July, aided by easing price pressures for consumer staples like food and energy and physical goods like new and used cars.

The consumer price index, a key inflation gauge, rose 2.9% in July from a year ago, the U.S. Department of Labor reported Wednesday. That figure is down from 3% in June and the lowest reading since March 2021.

The CPI gauges how fast prices are changing across the U.S. economy. It measures everything from fruits and vegetables to haircuts, concert tickets and household appliances.

“I think it’s right down the strike zone,” Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s, said of the CPI report.

Perhaps the most important thing for consumers is inflation for groceries “continues to grow very slowly,” Zandi said.

Combined with similar good news for other necessities like gasoline and market rents for new tenants, “that’s really encouraging news, particularly for the lower-income consumers that are the most hard pressed,” he added.

Inflation guides Fed interest rate policy

The July inflation reading is down significantly from the 9.1% pandemic-era peak in mid-2022, which was the highest level since 1981.

It’s also nearing policymakers’ long-term target, around 2%.

“We think we’re though the worst of it from an inflation perspective,” said Joe Seydl, senior markets economist at J.P. Morgan Private Bank.

The U.S. Federal Reserve uses inflation data to help guide its interest rate policy. It raised rates to their highest level in 23 years during the Covid-19 pandemic era, pushing up borrowing costs for consumers and businesses in a bid to tame inflation.

Recent labor market data has spooked some investors, who fear it signals a U.S. recession may be near. Many economists say those concerns are overblown, at least for now.

Nonetheless, easing inflation coupled with a cooler labor market make it likely that Fed officials will start cutting interest rates at their next policy meeting in September, economists said. Doing so would reduce borrowing costs, helping buoy the economy.

“In short, this CPI report represents more good data and adds to the evidence supporting a [0.25 percentage point] September rate cut,” Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a note Wednesday.

Housing is a stumbling block

Housing is the one major impediment keeping inflation elevated above the Fed’s target right now — on paper, at least, economists said.

Shelter is largest component of the CPI, and therefore has an outsized effect on inflation readings.

The shelter index has risen 5.1% since July 2023, accounting for more than 70% of the annual increase in the “core” CPI, the BLS said Wednesday. (The core CPI is economists’ preferred gauge of inflation trends. It strips out food and energy costs, which can be volatile.)

Consumer prices rose 0.2% in July, in line with expectations

After declining to 0.2% in June on a monthly basis, shelter inflation jumped back to 0.4% in July, the BLS reported.

Housing inflation moves up and down at glacial speed due to how the government measures it, economists said. Such data quirks mask positive news in the real-time rental market, which has seen inflation flatline for about two years, Zandi said.

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Excluding shelter — which is likely warranted given measurement issues — “we’re at the Fed’s target and then some,” Zandi said.

“Mission accomplished, in my view,” he said of the fight against inflation.

After stripping out shelter, the CPI rose 1.7% in July, below the Fed’s annual target.

Economists broadly expect shelter CPI inflation to continue to throttle back slowly given prevailing trends for market rents.

Other ‘notable’ categories

Motor vehicle insurance, medical care, personal care and recreation are some other indexes with “notable” increases over the last year, according to the BLS.

Prices in those categories are up 18.6%, 3.2%, 3.4% and 1.4%, respectively.

A surge in new and used car prices a few years ago is likely now fueling high inflation for car insurance premiums and vehicle repair, since it generally costs more to insure and repair pricier cars, economists said.

Insurance inflation should ultimately fade alongside falling car prices, they said. New vehicle prices are down 1% over the past year, and those for used cars and trucks have declined almost 11%.

Egg prices — which had surged in 2022 due to a historic outbreak of bird flu — are rising again following a reemergence of the deadly disease. They’re up 19% from a year ago.

Other food categories including bacon and crackers are up over the past year (by 8.5% and 3%, respectively), but their prices fell during the month of July, suggesting more potential declines ahead.

Overall annual grocery inflation was 1.1% in July, down from an average 11.4% in 2022, which was the highest since 1979.

How supply and demand impacted inflation

Inflation for physical goods spiked as the U.S. economy reopened in 2021. The Covid-19 pandemic disrupted supply chains, while Americans spent more on their homes and less on services such as dining out and entertainment.

It is a different story now. Goods inflation has largely normalized, while the services sector is a fly in the ointment, economists said.

However, services inflation — generally more sensitive to labor costs — should ease further due to a slacker job market and declining wage growth, economists said.

High interest rates have also served to reduce overall inflation by reducing demand, Seydl said.

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How to optimize your holiday travel budget on ‘Travel Tuesday’

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Is 'Travel Tuesday' a gimmick or a chance to save on your next trip?

If you still haven’t booked your holiday travel plans, take note: Prices tend to rise the closer you get to the days you’re looking to travel

To afford holiday trips, about 50% of respondents are cutting back on other expenses while 49% are picking up discounts and deals, according to the 2024 Holiday Travel Outlook by Hopper, a travel site.

Some last-minute holiday travelers are leaning into so-called “Travel Tuesday” — or the Tuesday after Cyber Monday and Black Friday — which falls on Dec. 3 this year.

Search interest for Travel Tuesday rose more than 500% from 2021 to 2023, according to a recent report by McKinsey and Company.

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There’s a reason why shoppers are searching for the term.

Last year, 83% more deals were offered on Travel Tuesday versus Cyber Monday and 92% more than Black Friday, according to Hopper data.

Yet, there may be some limitations on the deals available, experts say.

“The challenge for a lot of people is, ‘Do I wait?'” said Sally French, a travel expert at NerdWallet. 

For travelers who are set on specific days and places to visit, the answer might be “no.”

“While airlines and online travel agencies are going to offer flight deals on Travel Tuesday, there is no reason to wait,” said Phil Dengler, co-founder of The Vacationer, a travel platform.

How much you benefit from potential discounts on Travel Tuesday will depend on your flexibility, experts say. 

“If you have zero flexibility,” said Hayley Berg, economist at Hopper, then “if you see a good deal before Travel Deal Tuesday, feel free to book it.” 

How Travel Tuesday works

People wait in line for security checkpoints ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday at O’Hare International Airport in Chicago, Illinois, U.S. November 22, 2023. 

Vincent Alban | Reuters

Similar to Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales, Travel Tuesday deals sometimes begin to roll out before the day itself, said Dengler. They might even stretch into the day after. 

Nonetheless, you will typically need to book the flight, hotel stay or cruise trip by the end of the day in order to reap the benefits, he said. 

As you shop, make sure to read the fine print in case discounts only apply for certain routes and days, Dengler explained. 

Retailers often have a limited stock for Black Friday and Cyber Monday doorbusters. With Travel Tuesday, there may be a limited number of airline seats or hotel rooms, NerdWallet’s French said.

“They’re not going to fly two planes on the same route at the same time,” she said.

‘Be ready’ to book

Travel Tuesday might be better suited for deciding when and where you’ll go for an upcoming vacation in 2025, versus a very specific itinerary home over the holidays.

If you are not flexible on the days and destinations you plan to travel to and you find a flight available at a price you’re comfortable with, “book that trip right now,” French said. 

“If you wait until Travel Tuesday, then that deal could be gone,” she said. “You don’t want to wait for Travel Tuesday for it to be sold out.”

In some cases, it doesn’t hurt to book ahead and keep browsing for potential price drops, experts say.

You typically have 24 hours from booking to cancel for a full refund as long, as it’s seven days before a flight’s scheduled departure time, Dengler said. Plus, some airlines don’t have change fees for non-basic economy fares, he said.

If those terms are in your favor, “if you see a better deal on Travel Tuesday, simply cancel your current bookings and book the Travel Tuesday offer,” Dengler said.

On the flip side, if you’re less tied to specific dates and places, but have a general sense of where and when you want to travel, then holding off until discount days may be worthwhile.

“We tend to see the deals do get better and better the closer we are to actual Black Friday or actual Travel Tuesday,” French said.

The biggest takeaway for travelers is to start thinking about what you might want to book, Berg said. 

“I really encourage travelers to do that exploration now so that on Travel Deal Tuesday, they can be ready to actually book,” she said.

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How to leverage the 0% capital gains bracket as bitcoin surges

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Crypto investors could face higher taxes amid the surging price of bitcoin. But if you’re in the 0% capital gains bracket, you can reduce future taxes with a lesser-known strategy, experts say. 

The tactic, known as tax-gain harvesting, is selling profitable crypto in a lower-income year. You can leverage the 0% long-term capital gains rate — meaning you won’t owe taxes on gains — as long as earnings are below a certain threshold. The 0% bracket applies to assets owned for more than one year.

“That’s a very effective strategy if you’re in that bracket,” said Andrew Gordon, a tax attorney, certified public accountant and president of Gordon Law Group.

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The income limits for 0% capital gains may be higher than you expect, Gordon said.

For 2024, you qualify for the 0% rate with taxable income of $47,025 or less for single filers and $94,050 or less for married couples filing jointly. The brackets are higher for 2025.

You calculate taxable income by subtracting the greater of the standard or itemized deductions from your adjusted gross income. Your taxable income would include profits from a crypto sale.

For example, if a married couple earns $125,000 together in 2024, their taxable income may fall below $94,050 after they subtract the $29,200 standard deduction for married couples filing jointly.

Use the 0% bracket to reset your basis

You can also use the 0% capital gains bracket to reset your “basis,” or the original purchase price of crypto, according to Matt Metras, an enrolled agent and owner of MDM Financial Services in Rochester, New York.

If you’re in the 0% bracket, you can sell profitable crypto to harvest gains without triggering taxes. Then, you can repurchase the same asset to maintain your exposure.

However, experts suggest running a tax projection to see how increased income could impact your situation, such as phaseouts for tax breaks.

The price of bitcoin was hovering around $90,000, up more than 100% year-to-date, as of the afternoon on Nov. 18. The value briefly hit a record of $93,000 last week in a post-election rally.

It’s obviously hard to predict future price increases. However, some investors expect a boost under President-elect Donald Trump, who promised pro-crypto policies on the campaign trail.

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Number of older adults who lost $100,000 to fraud tripled since 2020: FTC

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The number of older Americans who report losing more than $100,000 to fraud in a given year has more than tripled since 2020, according to the Federal Trade Commission, a trend that experts say represents a grave and growing threat to older adults’ financial security.

In 2023, about 4,600 adults age 60 and older reported being defrauded of a six-figure sum, according to a report the FTC issued in October. That’s up from about 1,300 in 2020.

Such thefts can be especially devastating to older adults, who have less opportunity to earn back what they’ve lost, greatly impacting their quality of life in old age, experts said.

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“It’s life altering,” said John Breyault, vice president of public policy, telecommunications and fraud at the National Consumers League, a consumer advocacy group.

Aside from the financial blow, victims also bear the emotional “trauma of knowing they have to live rest of their life in poverty,” Breyault said.

Common scams targeting older Americans

Consumers overall lost $10 billion to scams in 2023, a record high, according to the FTC.

The figure is also $1 billion more than the fraud loss reported in 2022, despite the number of fraud reports being roughly the same, at about 2.6 million, the FTC said.

“Scammers are really getting more sophisticated, better at what they do and the technology they’re using seems to allow them to target victims with ever more precision,” Breyault said.

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Adults age 60 and older reported losing more than $1.9 billion to fraud last year, up from $1.6 billion in 2022, the FTC said.

The true scope of losses by older adults was likely significantly higher — around $62 billion in 2023 — after accounting for underreporting, the FTC said. Many Americans may not report these crimes to the police or other sources partly due to embarrassment about having been duped or because they assumed nothing could be done, according to a 2023 Gallup News poll.

Older adults were 60% more likely than younger ones to report losses exceeding $100,000 last year, according to the FTC. Criminals commonly stole such vast sums from older adults via romance scams, investment frauds and imposter scams, the FTC said.

Imposter scams often involved fraudsters impersonating friends and family or agents from technology firms like Microsoft, sweepstakes and lottery companies like Publishers Clearing House, institutions like banks and government agencies like the Social Security Administration, the FTC said.

The Federal Bureau of Investigation has also detailed a stark increase in internet crime defrauding older Americans in recent years. The average victim in that age group lost more than $34,000 in 2023, the FBI reported.

Investment scams, especially those involving fake cryptocurrency investment opportunities, accounted for the largest reported losses among all older adults in 2023: $538 million, up 34% from 2022, the FTC said.

3 common red flags of a scam

“We’d all like to believe we could spot an online scam a mile away,” the National Council of Aging wrote this year. “But the truth is that con artists and cybercriminals are getting craftier and more sophisticated by the day.”

That said, would-be victims can protect themselves by recognizing three common tactics used by scammers, Breyault said:

1. Sense of urgency

Criminals often try to create a “heightened state of emotional urgency,” Breyault said.

This psychological tactic pushes victims to act impulsively, rushing them into making decisions or providing sensitive information without thinking, according to NCOA.

“Fraudsters may say an offer is good for a limited time only, a product is about to run out, or that you must make a payment immediately to prevent negative consequences,” NCOA said.

2. Social isolation

Scammers try to prevent consumers from talking to a third party. For example, they might say, “Don’t tell anyone about this. Don’t go to the cops. This is an investment no one knows about so don’t tell anyone about this. It’s our little secret,” Breyault said.

“If you’re unsure about the person you’re talking to or what you’re being told, ask a friend or family member for advice before taking any further steps,” NCOA said. “Sending a quick screenshot of a text, or simply walking through the scenario with someone you trust, can often help you see things more clearly.”

3. Unusual ways to pay

Criminals often ask victims to make a payment by buying gift cards, sending a wire transfer, going to a bitcoin ATM, or sending money through a peer-to-peer transaction on a platform like Zelle or Venmo, for example, Breyault said.

Consumers generally don’t have recourse to be refunded money in such circumstances, he said.

While there are “legitimate” uses for such payment methods, they often appear “unusual” in the context of a fraud: For example, why would a loved one who claims to need cash ask you to send money via a bitcoin ATM? Breyault said.

“When you do buy products online, make sure you only use a payment option that offers reimbursement for authorized payments (such as most major credit cards),” NCOA wrote. “Using a form of direct payment, such as a payment app, is essentially the same as sending cash. You may not be able to receive a refund.”

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